¿Cuáles fueron las mentiras mediáticas de la defensa del Esequibo en la CIJ?

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[00:00:01]Map of conflict in a multipolar world, in energy, war, economic, and political crisis.

[00:00:11]A conflict map is needed with Marcos Salgado [music] live on Lauana TV.

[00:00:18]Hello, how are you? It's a pleasure to have you join us again on our conflict map on Venezuela's first political communication portal, iguana.tv. This Friday's conflict map will be dedicated to reviewing what we discussed live on the program, in the last program on Monday, regarding the conclusion of the hearings at the International Court of Justice concerning sovereignty over the exequivo territory.

[00:00:57]A long-standing border conflict with colonial roots, as we have explained here, and which went largely unnoticed in South America, and which continues to go largely unnoticed in South America, but which is very important because of what is at stake and is also very important in terms of energy balances and of course in terms of defending sovereignty. Uh, in the case of Venezuela, the claim for the ownership of those lands that were part of the Captaincy General of the old Spanish colony and that were later usurped by the powers of that time, the United Kingdom, with the complicity of the United States, and ended up being administered by Guyana, so that later those territories would become the Cooperative Republic of Guyana after independence. Those are the general terms that we know here and that we have seen throughout this week on iguana.tv.

[00:02:28]Here we are now going to try to make a sort of summary of the most important elements, also trying to make this understandable outside of Venezuela. That's why we're going to start by reviewing the central points of the message with which the session at the International Court of Justice practically ended last Monday. Uh, the message or some central points of the message of the acting president of Venezuela, Dels Rodríguez, before the court. The United Kingdom never had title to the territory of Essequibo. His heir neither had it nor does she have it now, but she intends to artificially forge it with this deceptive process.

[00:03:19]From 1840 onwards, the British Crown, aware of the immense gold reserves in that territory, established a strategy to plunder it.

[00:03:37]Later, the United Kingdom attempted to consolidate the dispossession through an arbitration farce that concluded with the fraudulent and rigged award of 1899.

[00:03:48]Today they are trying to validate that fraud with this biased process full of legal inconsistencies. There are those who have even dared to publicly predict the outcome of this process. The truth of the award and its deceptive nature highlight the intention of Guyana and those who encouraged it to take this reckless action to undermine and erode the prestige of this court.

[00:04:21]How can they expect this court to tarnish its history with a ruling that revives, validates, and legitimizes such a colonial judicial fraud?

[00:04:34]This part of the acting president's speech is very important, because if it were to happen that, I mean, we go one step further back, what is Guyana asking for?

[00:04:51]Guyana is asking for the invalid arbitration award, which arises from an agreement between powers, to be declared valid and thus nullify the award, remember, by which the territory of the team ends up in the hands of England first and then the Cooperative Republic of Guyana after Great Britain, the United Kingdom. And what Guyana wants is for that arbitration award to be declared valid.

[00:05:38]Therefore, everything that happened afterward, including the Geneva agreement of the 1960s, should be rendered null and void.

[00:05:51]If that happens, if that were to happen, because I insist, Guyana is not asking the International Court of Justice to reach an amicable negotiation mechanism, to reach an agreement that contemplates the rights or needs to which each party may aspire, to contemplate an economic agreement for the exploitation of resources. No, no, no.

[00:06:20]Buyana says nothing about that. Guyana says, "The arbitration audio in which the powers divided this territory a hundred and some years ago is valid." That's why Dels Rodríguez says this. In other words, if the Court rules in favor of Guyana, it would be validating a colonial agreement that later had new elements added, which is what Venezuela claims, which is the Geneva Pact, that is, the friendly agreement prior to Guyana's independence.

[00:07:07]Where does it say? Well, let's acknowledge that there is a demand here and that it must be resolved amicably and within the framework of the United Nations, because it is an agreement, the Geneva agreement, which was signed and deposited with the United Nations. It's not a unilateral agreement, it's a bilateral one that was just floating around and got shelved, right? So, what is Venezuela's central position that the Gender Treaty should be reinstated? We are going to listen to that part of the speech by the acting president.

[00:07:53]The territorial dispute over East Guayana is regulated by a legally binding international treaty that must be complied with by the parties in good faith. This instrument is none other than the Geneva Agreement of 1966.

[00:08:13]It is a unique treaty that would be difficult to find a parallel for in decolonizing practice, which seeks to resolve a colonial injustice through a mutually acceptable arrangement.

[00:08:29]A negotiated solution is therefore an inevitable and indispensable way to resolve the controversy.

[00:08:39]The Geneva agreement buries and transcends the discussion about the validity or invalidity of the 1899 award.

[00:08:51]That is central. That's central. It's not that there was an arbitration award here, this arbitrary one that, in one way or another, was maintained over time, right? No, there is a subsequent element here, which is why it is the Geneva agreement, as the acting president explained. Therefore, if the Court says, "The award is valid," the Court would be tarnishing its reputation by once again admitting colonial practices.

[00:09:36]Perhaps it would be interesting to see it later. We will do it by seeking specialists on this subject, specialists in decolonization, but it would be a very hard blow to the decolonization efforts that are still ongoing because there are still areas of the world where the United Nations' principles of decolonization can be applied.

[00:10:06]I'm saying this and leaving it on the table; we'll have to see if it matters or not. What would happen to the Falkland Islands, to Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands? If the International Court of Justice rules in favor of Guyana, they would arrive in London saying, "Ah, but we have a document here that we found dating back to around 1830, which was when the British intervened in the Falklands, in a situation very similar to what was happening here in terms of the impossibility of defending the territory of the nascent, convulsed nation-states. It's not in that sense that they are similar; it's another point of contact that the two have, the issue of the Falklands.

[00:10:58]Venezuela has historically defended Argentina's position on sovereign rights in the Falklands, alluding also to the conflict that Venezuela maintains with Guyana, or with the United Kingdom first, and then with Guyana.

[00:11:20]So, I insist, the gravity that a ruling in favor of Guyana's claim could have—and Rodríguez says this very clearly— the gravity that a ruling in favor of Guyana's claim could have.

[00:11:36]Following the speech before The judges, uh, this is what the acting president said.

[00:11:45]The truth about Venezuela has been revealed. That is our greatest satisfaction, because the important thing is to understand that the only existing mechanism, which is also a practically unprecedented agreement—there is no other international agreement comparable to the Geneva Agreement—seeks the resolution of a controversy through political dialogue, through peaceful negotiations. We have ratified that Venezuela is ready and prepared, ready and prepared to move forward with direct negotiations. Venezuela will not recognize the outcome of this process, which seeks to lead the Court to a shameful situation, such as attempting to validate a fraud that occurred 127 years ago, because we ourselves would be committing an international illegality. This very clear statement by the acting president was later used to create a whole media circus to distort it, to twist these statements, and to create a headline saying that Venezuela will not comply with the Court's ruling if it is favorable.

[00:13:10]They forced that statement; they did it on purpose as a press operation to begin, or continue, in any case, to continue fueling the case. Venezuela outside the bounds of international law.

[00:13:35]Ta ta ta.

[00:13:37]This was done by media outlets that are more or less considered benchmarks, in the sense that many copy their content from across the continent. And some Venezuelan media outlets did it too.

[00:13:57]They tried to use the headline that Venezuela would not recognize the International Court of Justice's ruling only if it were unfavorable, when in reality it has been made clear—because it has been said, but these media outlets conceal it— that Venezuela does not recognize the Court's jurisdiction in this case and therefore could hardly recognize any ruling the Court makes, whether favorable or unfavorable. And the acting president stated this very clearly during her speech at the Court, in the Palace of Justice, I think it's called, I think it's called the Palace of Justice, the Hall of Justice, as well as those—who were those, the super-friends?

[00:14:54]There was a little drawing of the Hall of Justice, well, pompous, right? But I mean, what did the president say? The president The official in charge, speaking in the chamber during her address regarding this issue of recognition, right? Regarding the ruling that the court may eventually issue later—it's being said next year— Venezuela can never endorse the violation of the Geneva Agreement and international law.

[00:15:29]Validating a judgment that seeks to disregard a legal instrument in force and duly deposited with the United Nations would go against the international legal order.

[00:15:43]Even if the Court were to declare the award invalid, Venezuela would be unable to comply with said judgment, as it would also be nullifying the Geneva Agreement and international law. It follows very clearly that there is no legal possibility of recognizing the decision resulting from that process, whatever it may be. Mr. President, members of the Court, this is not an act of irreverence toward this respected court. It is an act of unwavering defense of Venezuela's rights, of international law, and of the integrity of this Court as the principal judicial organ of the United Nations.

[00:16:29]Crystal clear, crystal clear.

[00:16:32]Why did the media distort the previous statement we saw and Didn't they take this? Well, because they are interested parties, they are not simply mirrors or disseminators of what is happening, they are not interested in this or that outcome.

[00:17:01]Why? Because evidently behind the move by Guyana, the International Court of Justice, there are economic interests that we have already discussed at length in the previous program.

[00:17:18]Basically, the question of who exploits and how the fields, the enormous oil reserves that are offshore, or offshore, as you prefer, that are in the Atlantic, but in the disputed area, in the projection of the territory, this disputed waters. That's why this starts, that's why the move to go to the International Court of Justice begins. And of course, when there are such strong economic interests, there is money involved. It was reported at the time that a lot of money went unreported, that even the lawyers representing Guyana before the International Court of Justice are paid by ExxonMobil.

[00:18:24]And there we go again to a central issue, which is what is being proposed, what Venezuela is saying, and this was stated very clearly in The Hague and in the days that followed when an assessment was being made of what had happened, that the only solution is for the parties to reach an agreement under the umbrella of the Geneva Agreement, especially regarding how natural resources will be exploited.

[00:19:02]It is the only possible solution.

[00:19:05]And someone might say, "Well, besides being the only one, it could also be the best."

[00:19:16]And yes, but, well, there are economic interests involved. Let's continue reviewing some elements of what was happening at the Court. Saúl Moncada, representing Venezuela before the International Court of Justice.

[00:19:31]The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela respectfully reiterates its request to the Court to first refrain from intervening in the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over South Guyana and from interfering with the obligations arising from the 1966 Geneva Agreement regarding the amicable, satisfactory, and acceptable settlement of said dispute by the parties through peaceful, political, and diplomatic negotiations.

[00:20:09]And second, in Consequently, it refuses to hear the claims of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana and dismisses them.

[00:20:21]This is central. This is what Venezuela is specifically asking the court to do, right? In other words, Guyana is asking for one thing. What is Venezuela asking for? Venezuela is asking that the court abstain from hearing or ruling on this matter.

[00:20:47]That is, Venezuela is not asking for—and I emphasize this because, since it is a new issue, in quotes, not for Venezuela, not for Venezuelans—but for the continent it gives the impression that it is a new issue, I insist, in quotes, because it is a historical issue, right?

[00:21:09]Colonial, with colonial roots, but a new issue in terms of how it is being approached.

[00:21:15]So, there is a lot of ignorance, and in that ignorance, media operations like the ones we denounced earlier thrive. So, what Venezuela is asking for is not a ruling in favor of Venezuela.

[00:21:30]It was very clear in what Moncada said. What Venezuela is asking the Court is not to rule because it is not the appropriate forum to resolve this conflict, because there is an agreement signed at the United Nations to resolve this conflict, and that is the forum where it should be resolved.

[00:21:49]That is another very important element to consider, as we always do here with conflict maps, to try to have some elements to understand the news in its geopolitical and strategic value, beyond what this or that media outlet says. Let's now quickly review some repercussions here in Venezuela after the defense of Venezuelan sovereignty carried out by the interim president and a large team in the Netherlands at the International Court of Justice. This is what Jorge Rodríguez said in the last session of the National Assembly. I would like to greet, congratulate, thank, and express my pride in all the interventions of the deputies, interventions marked by a common heart. If they see us united, they will have no choice but to comply with the law. I am Referring to the dignitaries of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana and those who coordinate them, they will have no choice but to understand that there are historical, legal, and traditional facts, countless pieces of evidence and testimonies supporting the inalienable rights of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. If they find any distortion motivated by internal political situations, they will continue to insist on illegality. In September 2021, the Chavista sector and the Bolivarian government signed a partial agreement in Mexico City establishing Venezuela's inalienable rights over guano. But in September 2023, we here called for a consultative referendum that transforms all of Venezuela's historical claim, all the legal, historical, and testimonial arguments, into the word of God. In that consultative referendum, we had five questions to ask the people of Venezuela through broad consultation with all sectors of Venezuelan society, and everyone participated. Do you support the Geneva Agreement, an agreement, as the only valid instrument to resolve the controversy?

[00:24:30]Unprecedented in recent human history because it's an agreement that promotes dialogue and a negotiated solution between the parties. There's nothing more unsatisfactory for a party than a court, because in a court, the decision is always made for or against one of the parties. That's why the acting president says, even if this court were to rule in favor of Venezuela, we couldn't recognize that ruling because it would be violating the Geneva Agreement on principle.

[00:25:17]Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, was also there, offering an important perspective, which is to recall the consultative referendum held in Venezuela, where the Venezuelan people very clearly stated their position on the sovereign claim and also on Venezuela's strategy of not recognizing the authority of the International Court of Justice to hear this case. This isn't a whim of the government, nor is it a unilateral strategy of the Venezuelan government; it's based on nothing less than 10 million votes that say, "No, not us."

[00:26:17]The Venezuelan population understands that this must be resolved within the Geneva agreement. Diosdado Cabello, finally, the Secretary General of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, regarding his assessment of Venezuela's actions before the GIS, said: Well, that's Guyana, isn't it? Now, Guyana can't interfere in Venezuela's internal affairs.

[00:26:42]We not only have a map, but we also have a state called Guayana Esequiba. It's recognized, it has a governor, and it has all the powers established for a governor in the Constitution.

[00:27:03]I hope Guayana is mistaken in thinking that we won't reclaim anything that has been stolen from us.

[00:27:11]That's not going to happen. Today, our president went there to raise her voice and demand that we return to where we belong, which is the Geneva agreement, where the truth of this territorial dispute lies.

[00:27:29]Diosdado Cabello, Secretary General of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela and Minister of the Interior of Venezuela, was there. I insist, to close this point, just as there were media operations this week, So, we've debunked it here and in other areas, in other media outlets, other communicators have done so as well. These operations will continue, they will intensify when we are close to some kind of resolution, surely from the International Court of Justice, and we will have to continue making an effort to ensure that these positions are understood, that the historical truth is understood. I'll close by returning to what I said at the beginning: Great Britain has no title to these lands.

[00:28:37]From there, the rest of this situation, which is a colonial dispossession, begins to unfold. That's why what the SIG does is so important, not only in this case to see how this situation is resolved, but also because of the repercussions it could have for other decolonization processes that are still ongoing in the world. Let's move on to the other topic we wanted to raise, or one of the other topics we wanted to raise, because towards the end we'll be talking about the summit between Yin Ping and Donald Trump.

[00:29:15]But now we wanted to focus on an issue that we saw this This week, my opinion is linked in one way or another to this summit, uh, to that provocation by Donald Trump and the White House of publishing on social media a post showing a map of Venezuela—an incomplete map, it must be said, of Venezuela without the equipment. I mean, those colonial remnants, uh, but painted with the flag of the United States and a legend above it that said "51st State," uh, right? As if Venezuela could at some point become the 51st state of the United States. If this had been just a post by President Trump, one could say, "Well, let's leave it at that." It 's all very serious, but we already know what men are like here in Venezuela. We certainly know that, we know his sides, his worst sides, but this goes further because it is the White House that is reposting it in some way. So, what's behind this?

[00:30:37]Hey, what's behind this post? Is there a real will?

[00:30:45]Is it just a provocation?

[00:30:48]Uh, what's the message? We're going to try to understand it, and for that we'll greet our colleague William Serafino, political scientist, master in history, researcher and geopolitical analyst. Uh, William had a note in the Red newspaper that I think is interesting, I'm going to share it now, you know? He raises the idea of, well, what's behind this Venezuela, 51st State, of the United States? William, how are you?

[00:31:28]Marco, good morning, it's a pleasure to greet you.

[00:31:31]Thank you, thank you for being with us here on the conflict map.

[00:31:34]Well, I'll ask you the same question you posed in Diario Red: what's behind this " Venezuela State 51" thing?

[00:31:43]Yes, well, fundamentally there are several things, right? I believe there are several concentrated and interconnected messages in that post. I think you anticipated the main theme of it quite well. It's a symbolic attack, and well, obviously it can't be taken lightly. Now the moment seemed important to me to be reviewed. He does this just as he is traveling to China on the A4 One. That also accompanied me with the other video that came out minutes later of Marco Rubio, wearing the Nike outfit that President Maduro had at the time of the kidnapping.

[00:32:15]This, I believe, is due to the impossibility of arriving in China with something to prove, with milestones of power behind us that suggest we are in a situation of equality at a geopolitical level.

[00:32:30]Uh, I think that Venezuela acts, or that publication, right?, of symbolic annexation acts as a compensation mechanism. He cannot arrive with a victory, obviously, on the Tariff Front, nor can he arrive with a victory in Iran, much less. It arrives very weakened internationally due to all the questioning that has taken place, due to its constant improvisations, and above all the United States as a hostile and denialist power of the international order as well. So, well, what's at hand, let's say, is this complex relationship that has developed with Caracas since January 3rd, and sending a message to, precisely, I think the main recipient is China, saying, "Well, look, I took away your main ally in Latin America, right?" I think I also connect this with the context of debt restructuring, which the Venezuelan government announced in recent days, following a license for the FAC (Flying Combatants) in this regard. And let's remember, well, that China is a major creditor of Venezuelan debt, and well, in this context of restructuring, I think the message could also be understood as a declaration of intent that China's interests would seek to be marginalized or relegated to the periphery or even set aside, right? That seems to me to be the key geopolitical element of the map's publication, but there are other internal elements that we can develop because it's interesting, and you raise it in your article. Because, I mean, there may be many unsuspecting people who They say, "Oh, well, there's an intention to become the 51st state, or I want us to be the 51st state." You see, there's certainly a sector of society that's considering that, or perhaps not considering it, but that would welcome it, or at least have some expectation of it. But that's also unrealistic, isn't it? You bring it up, I mean, maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves about something that will never happen, but it's not wrong to also point out that the possibility of Venezuela becoming a 51st state by imposition is unrealistic, or seems quite unrealistic, because it's clear that that's not what we want here, and the acting president made that very clear.

[00:34:39]A 51st state is also unrealistic, isn't it?

[00:34:46]Yes, your microphone is off.

[00:34:47]Excuse me. Yes, first of all, that's unfeasible from an international point of view.

[00:34:52]Let's remember that the Charter of the United Nations expressly prohibits annexations by force. We also know that the UN Charter isn't exactly... It's very useful in preventing follies or disproportionate acts of power by some international actors, but international law expressly prohibits it, as does the Venezuelan Constitution. That's what the acting president emphasized; it's also something that isn't foreseen, and if you look at it within the United States, the situation is worse due to various factors.

[00:35:22]First, the parliamentary equation. To illustrate this, I'd like to consider two historical cases, which I also explored in my master's thesis, specifically the Aves Island conflict of the mid- 19th century, where the annexation of the island to the United States was proposed. It's a very important case for understanding how this mechanism has developed throughout history.

[00:35:45]But, for example, we have the case of Alaska, purchased by Russia in 1877, and the case of Hawaii, annexed in 1898. Note that these two territories became states and shaped the... The 49th and 50th states of the American Union were incorporated in 1959. That is, more than 50 years passed in the case of Hawaii, and much longer—almost 100 years after the Alaska Purchase—before they could be incorporated as states. What do these cases tell you? Because we could also talk about the annexation, for example, of the Republic of Texas in 1845 as a prelude to the war against Mexico.

[00:36:20]But what it tells you is that there were a lot of tensions because once these states were incorporated, they had to be assigned a large number of representatives and a legally mandated number of two senators, right? Notice that when this incorporation occurred, we can consult the American press of the time, in 1950. For example, states like Pennsylvania and New York even requested two or three seats. So, this generated, you see, the tensions that can arise in territories that also didn't have a large population concentration.

[00:36:53]Like the one Venezuela has for its incorporation as a state. The most important and immediate case was that of Texas, but it was clearly a territory, in quotes, contiguous to the United States, and well, it was already part of a secession process also promoted by the United States as a prelude to that annexation. So, there's no immediate precedent for a process of this type.

[00:37:14]There are legal obstacles within the United States, such as the 1999 law that sets a limit of 435 representatives in the House of Representatives. That was modified somewhat when Hawaii and Alaska were incorporated, but then, since representatives were taken away from these other states I mentioned, it returned to 435. If we do a mathematical equation, a very basic sum, that would imply that Venezuela would have 35 states, making it one of the states with the greatest electoral weight, along with Florida or California. Tell me, there are also political considerations here, excuse me for going on. If all of Donald Trump's politics In terms of the migrant hunt, the objective has been to prevent Joniker Jesús Jiménez, son of Mrs. Encarnación from Carapita, from going to the United States, based on racial, geopolitical, and internal security considerations, in quotes. How could a 51st state argue that this young man from Carapita would have the same rights as a John Williamson from Arkansas or a citizen of New York?

[00:38:16]It would be the complete opposite of what Trump has proposed within the current political landscape. There's also another issue, because nowadays a native of Hawaii can arrive in the United States and go to any state they want.

[00:38:35]So, ultimately, it seems absurd, but it's at the heart of the situation.

[00:38:45]Trump expels, but on the other hand, he says, " I want to bring them in." That's why it also has a side—I don't know if "ridiculous" is the right word—but it has a very... It seems to me that it's linked to Trump's way of communicating, right? Now, let me raise another point, William, how could this also be somehow interfering in these moves by the White House and Trump, in the whole provocation of the 51st state? You mentioned something at the beginning that I want to emphasize again: this is prior to the trip to China, and it's not a coincidence.

[00:39:30]I think it connected very well with the other provocation, which was Marco Rubio wearing a tracksuit on the plane similar to the one President Nicolás Maduro was wearing when he was kidnapped. Now, there's also a nod to, or an attempt to contain, the demands of a sector that is very important to Donald Trump in electoral terms, but also especially in economic terms, which is—I mean, in political and economic terms— Miami, the hardline anti-Cuban and anti-Venezuelan sectors.

[00:40:16]Yes, because remember, that's a Republican sector. Very important, not only in terms of electoral weight, as you rightly say, but also political weight. That is, it's understood that the Florida peninsula is, let's say, the natural interlocutor and a kind of logical conduit for American foreign policy toward Latin America. In other words, it truly has a very strong geopolitical foundation there.

[00:40:41]Let's remember that Marco Rubio comes from this state and that he owes all his political capital to this state, and even the prospect of running for president in 2028. So, we're already talking about internal tensions within the Republican Party that go beyond the electoral aspect. The big issue is that, at least as I've been arguing, not just now, but for over a month, even since the beginning of this whole thing, you'll recall, when Venezuela won the World Baseball Classic against the United States. That's where the issue of the state really begins, although he had already shown some maps in a meeting with the Europeans where it appeared... For example, Greenland and Cuba are already painted with the American flag, right?

[00:41:21]What I've been suggesting for some time now, and I'm reinforcing that hypothesis by looking at the facts, is that such a fluid relationship with the acting president, Elisa Rodríguez, is n't so convenient for Trump in partisan terms—mind you, not in terms of his foreign policy, but in partisan terms. That is to say, the praise he constantly heaps on the Caracas-Washington relationship after January 3rd is beneficial in terms of his foreign policy, but it generates tensions within the Republican Party. For example, María Elvira Salazar, Mario Díaz-Balar, the so-called Crazy Kubans, say, "Look, I 've done—I mean, the only thing I have to offer the Latino vote, which is also drifting away because of the ICE issue and the complexities of the US economy, is the fall of the so- called Venezuelan dictatorship, including the Cuban and Nicaraguan ones."

[00:42:09]No? So, I'm missing out on the opportunity to use that as an electoral magnet for the midterm elections. So, well, this presents an intermediate solution, that is, I can generate a climate of impasse with Caracas, I generate, let's say, a discursive duel, in my view, so far, of low cost and uh let's say I give them something, I give them a candy, I give them a toy to these Miami sectors so that, let's say, they also play that polarization and can, let's say, try to save that connection with the Latino vote. Now, what do I believe? that neither Donald Trump nor with this publication of the map nor President Rodríguez are willing to take the situation to an extreme of discursive polarization.

[00:42:52]I want to say that I raised the possibility of breaking off relations because it would be mutually painful in terms of both actors depending on the energy agreements continuing to develop and expanding in the short and medium term. So that seems to me to be an important factor. I also believe, Marcos, that he kills two birds with one stone, because what does Tron also achieve by positioning the issue of the 51st state, beyond the unfeasibility, beyond the fact that it is a provocation in which I wouldn't even say that they weren't looking for a miscalculation in Caracas, possibly, because this also generates indignation, generates tensions, generates concern, obviously we are not talking about something that is simply laughable. I think he kills several birds with one stone. What is he achieving? Take the election issue off the agenda. Nobody is talking about the electoral issue because of the 51st State issue.

[00:43:36]Even María Corina Machado was interviewed in the United States and they quickly asked her about it, meaning that put that issue on the agenda. And I believe there is also a very subtle, very subtle meaning that is also a message for investors who are also seeing the electoral lobbying, in quotes, of María Corina as a kind of stumbling block to being able to invest in Venezuela. What is Trump saying? Although it's not real, but I mean, in the design of the message, well, Venezuela is a natural extension, in quotes, of the United States.

[00:44:09]Therefore, your investments would be as safe as if you made them in Texas or New Mexico, say, where the Permian Basin is located, where the United States' hydrocarbon energy potential is concentrated. So, I think that's part of the message, to tell investors with complete confidence because, let 's say, Venezuela is just another state.

[00:44:26]So, just like you can invest in Texas, in New Mexico, in California, in all the states of the Union, you can also invest in Venezuela without that having any repercussions. I believe that with an additional message of security in terms of this symbolic annexation that evidently has no basis in reality, but I also believe, as I state at the bottom of the article, which I have also been stating on my social networks for quite some time, that there is also a trial balloon operation, which is what worries me more than the formality of whether we are in a process of incorporation into a statehood or a stateood in the short term. I believe that there is something much more dangerous perhaps that has nothing to do with the formal result of an annexation.

[00:45:08]Of course, what you're saying is interesting, William, regarding the electoral issue in Venezuela, because that's the demand of sectors like that of María Corina Machado. But notice that in the last week, two interesting things happened, and I'm adding to that the issue of the 51st State, presented as a way to shift attention away from the demands of this sector of the opposition, the "Maricorinista" faction, regarding the elections. Well, she doesn't propose it that way either, because she doesn't have the White House's backing for it. But two other things happened: Marco Rubio, to whom this issue of the elections was specifically raised, brought it up again. It's not the first time he's said it; we'll see about that later. And this same chargé d'affaires or head of the diplomatic representation of the United States in Venezuela, he speaks again about the idea of ​​the three phases that the United States supposedly wants to carry out or intends to carry out in Venezuela, but he only talks about the issue of economic stabilization. This somehow brings us back to what you were saying, right? That seems to be where the interest lies, and from there also stems the desperation of María Corina Machado.

[00:46:44]Yes, I think María Corina is also reading, it seems logical to me, because we political observers are seeing it in some way, with more or less a level of expertise and knowledge to understand from the inside how the Trump administration works, and what she is also seeing is a discrepancy between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. If we look at it in very practical terms, Donald Trump has never spoken about the three- phase plan. He has never spoken about the three-phase plan. Marco Rubio has spoken about that. Let's say it's the State Department's roadmap.

[00:47:14]So there is a situation of tension, a situation of disconnection with respect to the visions, because what we are seeing is that Tron is interested in the phase, I'm not going to say economic recovery because that still needs some empirical verification, right? But the economic phase is what interests Donald Trump. I highly doubt Donald Trump is interested in the so-called transition phase, because that obviously doesn't bring him any political benefits either, and therein lies one of the biggest risk factors and sources of chaos: that what he considers, and what is also proven by international reality, his only geopolitical success—having achieved what he supposedly achieved in Venezuela—could be weakened or undermined.

[00:47:56]So, evidently, Marco Rubio is also very intelligent, right? He obviously needs Trump's money to be able to run in 2028. He's been hit hard too. Let's remember, Marcos, that he appeared on television, he appeared in the White House itself, decreeing the end of Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In other words, he was the public face of the political and military defeat of the United States. And then came a series of videos where, well, he presents himself, let's say, as a pre-candidate.

[00:48:25]Polls and reports from Axios, for example, began to emerge, saying that JD B was ahead in the internal dispute.

[00:48:30]Then comes this statement that you rightly mention regarding the electoral issue.

[00:48:33]So, of course, for Marco Rubio it does mean something else, because Marco Rubio is a direct sponsor of María Corina Machado and he does have an interest in using the Venezuelan case as a springboard for his attempt to run in the 2028 elections, but for Trump it doesn't. Trump is already a president who is going to finish his term. There are many hypotheses; there is a movement of neoconservative and conservative sectors calling for what they call Trump 2028. It is also based on the fact that Roosevelt, for example, governed four times in the United States, consecutive terms, so there is a possibility that Trump could run for a third term, but that is not yet a real possibility. So, well, Tron, what I was thinking about, I think, is in more economic and business terms than in medium-term political terms, right?

[00:49:19]So, I think that amidst these tensions between Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, María Colina is trying to manage things in a perhaps rather inefficient way, and I think that's also where Caracas's bets are focused: that the agreement with Trump be as solid as possible, to obviously allow for an internal economic recovery that the country has been asking for for many years. Because of everything that happened with the sanctions, basically.

[00:49:43]Sure, William, I really appreciate these few minutes with the conflict map here on iguana.tv. We had talked several times in different situations about being able to connect and well, we were able to complete it, to finalize it today.

[00:49:56]Thank you so much. We're in touch.

[00:49:58]Thanks, Marco. Well, it gave us a chance to make the connection thanks to the light. See you later. I hope you're doing well.

[00:50:03]Thank you.

[00:50:05]There was William Serafino, a political scientist, with a master's degree in history, a researcher and geopolitical analyst. Uh, ah, I didn't end up submitting the article to the Red newspaper, but oh well, you can look for it. Uh, it's a note titled as we stated at the beginning, Venezuela, States, United States, what's really behind it. I think we were able to develop William's argument quite a bit in this article, and I also recommend his general work on his social media and on Diario en Diario Red. Okay, let's quickly review the main points. May I do so, Vidal? We have time. Yes. This, from what was the summit or what it still is.

[00:50:55]Well, Donald Trump's visit, Donald Trump's state visit to China, to the People's Republic of China, is coming to an end. There we have in video 11 we have Trump's arrival at the Great People's Palace.

[00:51:19]Uh, this is Donald Trump's second visit to China. Uh, the first one was during his first term, it's the first meeting since last year where they had met in Busam, in South Korea in October 2025, uh, where they agreed, do you remember, to tone it down a bit? Whether they agreed or not, China somehow forced the United States to tone down Trump's rhetoric on the issue of tariffs. We don't really remember much about the whole thing about the tariff war that Trump was proposing, do we?

[00:52:06]Many other things happened afterwards, but that 's still on the table.

[00:52:10]And if I'm talking about what was happening in Busan, in South Korea, because that, if you will, was the first great victory of Shishin Pin in stopping Trump, in calming him down on the issue of tariffs, but this is also from today, from yesterday, these are images from yesterday, there is the media presence, of course, the attention focused, the press is on one side of the entrance to the Great Hall of the People and the greeting of Donald Trump to the delegation from the People's Republic of China. Lots of pomp, of course, eh, in what is a state visit eh by Donald Trump. Now we also have another video on channel 12 that talks about this bubble, right? The one I'm referring to, the troop review of Trump and Shisin Pin right there on the esplanade of the Great Hall of the People. Hm. It's part of the same act, isn't it? Uh, the troop review, cannon fire, uh, a lot of formality for what was later going to be a more political matter, of course, very much linked to formal and diplomatic signals, right? But look at what was on the 13th, we have the arrival at the dinner, at the banquet of honor that was held, uh, during the end of the first day of Trump's state visit to China, right? There they are, the two presidents entering the hall.

[00:54:23]Someone who crosses the camera, the best families pass by. It even happens in China. We can pass through here too. Another one crossing the line. Well, all the guards have crossed, but here they come, here come the two presidents walking towards the main table. We're going to share directly on the 14th what Yishin Pin said at dinner. At dinner, well, at the toast, let's say, there would have to be dinner. Now, please join me in a toast to the development and prosperity of China and the United States and to the well-being of our people.

[00:55:03]For the bright future of relations between China and the United States and the friendship between both peoples and for the health of President Trump and all the friends present here.

[00:55:14]Health.

[00:55:17]Bad. Uh, Claro, it was actually read directly in English by an announcer and we had the translation into Spanish there, that's why you don't see Yishin Pin speaking. But what did Donald Trump say in that same toast at that banquet?

[00:55:39]Well, thank you very much.

[00:55:42]This is a great honor. It was a fantastic day and in particular I want to thank the president, my friend, for this magnificent welcome and it really was a magnificent welcome like no other and for receiving us with such courtesy on this very historic state visit.

[00:56:04]Today we had extremely positive and productive conversations and meetings with the Chinese delegation.

[00:56:12]And tonight is another valuable opportunity to discuss with friends some of the things we talked about today. Everything is good for the United States and for China, and it was a great honor to be with you. Go ahead, please.

[00:56:30][applause] Uh, part of what Donald Trump was saying, he was talking before the workday, the meeting. Let's listen to what the President of the United States said, a little more extensively and more to analyze in the opening words at the meeting, the first working meeting between the two delegations in the great hall of the people, in the great palace of the people.

[00:57:00]Thank you. Well, Mr. President, yes, I want to thank you very much. First of all, this was an honor like few others have seen before, and I think I was particularly impressed by those children. They were happy, they were beautiful.

[00:57:14]The military aspect is obvious; it couldn't be better. But those children were amazing and they represent so much. And I know they mean a lot to you. You and I have known each other for a long time.

[00:57:27]In fact, it is the longest relationship between our two countries that one president has ever had with another president.

[00:57:33]And that, for me, is an honor. We've had a fantastic relationship. We got along well. When there were difficulties, we resolved them. I didn't call you and you didn't call me. And when we had a problem, people don't know this, but whenever we had a problem we solved it very quickly. We're going to have a fantastic future together. I have great respect for China, for the work you have done. You are a great leader. I tell everyone, you are a great leader. Sometimes people don't like it when I say it, but I say it anyway because it's true. I'm just telling the truth. And I just want to say on behalf of the entire large delegation we 've brought, that we have the best businessmen, the greatest, and I suppose the best in the world. We have incredible people and they are all with me, every single one of them.

[00:58:25]We invited the top 30 in the world. Each of them said yes, and I didn't want the second or third person from each company, I only wanted the highest-level ones. And today they are here to pay respect to you and to China and look forward to trading and doing business. And on our part it will be entirely reciprocal. So I'm really looking forward to our conversation. It's a great conversation.

[00:58:50]Some say that this may be the most important summit in history.

[00:58:54]They don't remember anything like it. I can say that in the United States people are talking about nothing else, but it is an honor to be with you. It is an honor to be your friend and the relationship between China and the United States is going to be better than ever before.

[00:59:09]Thank you so much.

[00:59:16]Future, a fantastic future together.

[00:59:20]Hey, there he says again what we heard earlier at the banquet, I am his friend. Uh, he talks to him about the topic of businessmen. Now we're going to talk about, we're going to close by talking about that topic of how this story goes about the businessmen or the SEOs or the owners of large companies who traveled together with, uh, with Trump. And what is the goal of this? But I want to focus in particular on video 17, where we have what Shiinp said in that formal and televised opening, let's say, of the first working meeting.

[01:00:14]Let me say a few words first, and then I would like to invite you, Mr. President, to deliver your opening remarks.

[01:00:24]President Trump, I am very pleased to meet with you in Beijing.

[01:00:30]Welcome back to China after 9 years.

[01:00:34]Everyone is watching our meeting.

[01:00:38]Currently, a transformation unseen in a century is accelerating around the world, and the international situation is fluid and turbulent.

[01:00:49]The world has reached a new crossroads.

[01:00:52]Can China and the United States overcome the Tusirides Trap and create a new paradigm of great power relations?

[01:01:03]Can we face global challenges together and bring more stability to the world? For the sake of the well-being of both our peoples and the future of humanity, we can build together a brighter future for our bilateral relations.

[01:01:21]These are vital issues for history, for the world, and for peoples. These are the questions of our time that you and I must answer as leaders of great countries.

[01:01:36]This year marks the 25th anniversary of American independence.

[01:01:43]My congratulations to you and to the American people. I have always believed that our two countries have more interests in common than differences.

[01:01:55]The success of one is an opportunity for the other and a stable bilateral relationship beneficial to the world.

[01:02:04]China and the United States have much to gain from cooperation and much to lose from confrontation.

[01:02:11]We should be partners, not rivals. We must help each other succeed and prosper together and find the right way for great powers to relate well to one another in the new era.

[01:02:28]Mr. President, I look forward to our discussions on issues important to our two countries and to the world, and to working together with you to set the course and steer the great ship of Sino-American relations, so that we may make 2026 a landmark year that opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.

[01:02:55]Here I pause and give him the floor. Mr. President, thank you.

[01:03:09]The speech, a small intervention by a statesman, is n't it?, which takes the opportunity to raise in general terms the central issues of the relationship and what a relationship between great powers can be like, says Yishin Pin. And he speaks there, the Chinese president speaks there about overcoming the trap of your indices.

[01:03:41]What is the trap of your indexes? It is a geopolitical concept based on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 500 years before, 400 years before Christ. But as a geopolitical concept, what does it mean? It's the tendency towards war when an emerging power, in this case, uh, uh, Athens, uh, an emerging power, threatens to displace a hegemonic power, right? I'm leaving, but well, as a political concept it was, of course, evolving, but it's set up like this, the trap of your indices. Shin Pin tells him, let's overcome the trap of your index fingers. In other words, he is saying, "You, the hegemonic power, are going to war against us, the emerging power."

[01:04:44]The concept is crystal clear, it's crystal clear.

[01:04:49]Those who have developed the concept later speak of 16 transitions in 500 years that could be applied in some way to the emergence of an emerging power against an existing one or an emerging sector against a more established one, and that in those 16 transitions, 12 were resolved with armed conflicts. That's why the geopolitical concept of the index trap is not, uh, it's not something vague and that's out there in the Peloponnese.

[01:05:28]No, no, no. It's still in effect, and Chishinpin tells Donald Trump this with complete clarity in a speech that lasts, what?

[01:05:39]That thing we just heard must last 3 minutes. 5 minutes I think this one that uh 3 minutes. Clear. Well, this illustrates very clearly what China's position is in this relationship. And if we remember everything that has been said from the White House against China, especially everything that has been attempted since Donald Trump's second term began last year, we see that this summit cannot be interpreted in any other way than as a sort of... not a decapitation, because that's not what it's about, but rather a way of saying, well, let's start to... I mean, it's not about that, it's not framed that way, China isn't framing it that way, but I mean, there is a question of saying, well, let's put things in their proper perspective, right? Let's put things in their proper perspective. That is what China is suggesting in a way.

[01:06:56]And if one looks at it in terms of everything that was said about the United States against China, there is not a capitulation, but rather a defeat in the original position of the United States, which is also evidently compounded by the ongoing defeat of the United States in the Persian Gulf and in Iran. We are going to Iran. Let's wrap this up, it 's silent, right? The 18th, because it marks another element of the meeting that we wanted from this summit that we wanted to bring. This is Lian, he is a sort of prime minister of China and they are American businessmen.

[01:08:00]We saw Elon Musk there, but there were other people present, not so well known by their faces, I mean, we didn't recognize them so quickly, but there was Tin Cook from Apple, Jensen One from Nvidia, and, well, M from Tesla, right? There at that meeting, the Chinese premier stressed that China and the United States can and should remain friends and partners. And he asked American companies to expand their presence in China and act as bridges for communication and dialogue between the two economies, right? Uh, it 's no coincidence that Donald Trump mentioned that meeting when he was speaking at the beginning of the meeting and we saw him earlier before Jin Ping. I talked to them about Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia, and at Nvidia. I don't know how to pronounce this, because otherwise it sounds like Nvidia, but Tesla is... the main branch of Tesla is electric cars, right?

[01:09:26]Who appears to be a very strong competitor to Tesla today?

[01:09:32]B, a Chinese company, that is, Tesla, what they have to resolve there, what they have to resolve there is how to divide the market. We know Apple, we know them.

[01:09:46]Computers, phones, phones, no, not just phones, Apple phones are more like expensive phones, let's say, smartphones, uh, Apple's main branch is consumer electronics, software, digital services.

[01:10:03]What's Apple's theme? That a significant part of its production is done in China and that cannot be replaced in any other way.

[01:10:14]And envy is what those who produce, or one of the most important producers of semiconductors, especially of, uh, the soul, let's say, the basis of computers, right? This, graphics accelerators, for high-performance computing, is closely linked to artificial intelligence, right?

[01:10:42]I insist, Tesla, the fierce competition with the IDB, Chinese electric cars, Apple, the risks of vetoes and restrictions on the use of the iPhone in the Chinese public sector, and also the issue of its dependence on Chinese production, which would be very complicated for Apple if the tariffs that Trump threatened were to materialize, and on the other hand, the chip and platform producers have a problem: US export controls limit the shipment of advanced chips to China, which is the big market for this. What do I mean by this? There are three elements, right? But it's not just about three companies or several American companies coming to China to see how we can collaborate more. No, they don't have complete, concrete, specific problems for which they need to build those bridges, one could even say almost to survive.

[01:12:01]This is how the relationship between China and the United States is structured today.

[01:12:07]Could someone say, "It's an equal relationship?" No, because it has many outstanding issues, many points of contention, so it would be difficult to establish it on equal terms. What is clear, what is clear is that the United States can no longer advance further in its rhetoric or in its concrete action against China and has to go looking for these spaces, these elements, these summits like the one that is ending at this time in Beijing. We will certainly return to this topic to analyze it thoroughly and in depth regarding the conclusions. There's the issue of Taiwan, which we haven't named as a central geopolitical element, so we'll definitely come back to that later in our conflict map.

[01:13:01]Thank you for joining us. Map of conflict in a multipolar world, in energy, war, economic, and political crisis.

[01:13:14]A conflict map is needed, with Marcos Salgado live on Laiguana TV. Yeah.