Bitcoin momentum via Futures, Options, Spot, Funding Rates, and CTKS Structure. Stack the odds.

Ajouté : 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]In today's video, I'm going to give you an excellent insight into the options market and the futures market and how it could impact Bitcoin. But first, we need to talk about two rules. No alt can escape Bitcoin's gravity. If you don't know which direction Bitcoin is going and you're trading and investing in the crypto market, you're going to be in a world of pain. If Bitcoin is coming up, your alts will be coming up. If Bitcoin is going down, your alts will be going down. This rule is very very important but not as important as this one coming up which is rule 284. Always buy and sell with an understanding and knowledge of the position of CTKO structure. If you do not know where the structure is, you'll get whipsorted out. To avoid becoming a liquidity statistic, it's very very important to understand where the structure is in the market. In yesterday's video, we had Bitcoin around 81,690 and we did some really cool things. We looked into the futures market and we looked into liquidation levels both for the longs and for the shorts. And we were saying some major liquidation levels for us to take care of and understand is 82201 and up a little bit further at the 84,000.

[00:01:24]And also we were looking at the 80,265 and the 79 12,000 for a bearish move. I always say 24 hours is a very long period of time. So let's actually go forward in time right now to the current price action and check what actually went on. Now I've also looked into the options market for you and I'm going to give you some incredible insights in there. Now, the first thing that we notice is that the 82,200 level was taken out. Now, you see this big surge in Bitcoin. Bonus points if you already know why. And if you already know why, it means you're doing the cheat sheet. But I'll tell you because it's really fascinating stuff. You can notice this little chart in the background. If I can grab it now. This is US oil. Now you can see that US oil was going down. I'm just going to make this a little bit easier for you to see.

[00:02:28]So there you go. Now what this means is this. US oil absolutely crated and that brought riskon behavior into the market.

[00:02:39]And if you thought Bitcoin was moving for Bitcoin reasons, I hopefully hopefully you can see that if you understand the cheat sheet, you're going to gain insight into stacking probabilities. Now, if you're in the markets with any weight at all, and what I mean, I'm not talking about your weight. I'm talking about how much money you put into the market, you need every edge that you can get because the crypto market is really volatile. All markets are volatile. Now, what happened as oil retraced up? Look at this. Bitcoin retrace back. Now, this is very important. So many people in the crypto market just look at Bitcoin and they say Bitcoin moves for Bitcoin reasons and they don't know the cheat sheet and they don't know intercorrelation interconnection between markets and they say uh you should do X and they're unequivocally confident about it. But if you don't know how the world's markets are moving, that confidence is fake. and you can feel very confidence that something is going in one direction and it's just going to keep on going and you won't realize that that move is weakening. So when we saw oil flip down like this, Bitcoin absolutely rallied because the straight of her moves was getting reopened and all sorts of things and there were really good negotiations and and look what happened. It just retraced. And this is the thing that you must understand. Oil is a tremendously overcrowded play. Everybody in their cat is buying oil at the moment. And that's when you know you shouldn't touch the thing at all with a barge pole. That means from a long perspective, just remember the crowd is generally incorrect.

[00:04:30]As CTKS traders, we keep a very close eye on things and we understand intercorrelation and interconnection and how to read through charts. This decay and oil was very good for risk on. Now I want to give you a bit of an edge inside the options market. Now the options market there are two very important levels that you need to understand. The options market battleground is literally between $80,000 and $84,000.

[00:05:01]And on a more granular level, it's between 80,000 and $825,000.

[00:05:08]Now, what we're going to do is that we're going to look at the liquidation levels next, but I just want to give you a bit of an insight into options. If we can get above 82 and a half, that opens up a potential squeeze in the shorts to move higher to 84. And 84 is a like a very strong bullish confirmation. So that is a something that is definitely something you want to keep your eyes on.

[00:05:34]Bearish breakdown could occur sub 80,000. So these are a couple of levels that I want you to keep on your radar.

[00:05:42]Now, what we're going to do is to just quickly look into the liquidation levels for Bitcoin. Now, when I go into Coin Glass, I like to look at the liquidation heat map on the 3-day basis. 3 days is a fairly good period of time. If you look at 12-hour, 24-hour, 48 hour, it's literally a bit too thin. 3-day is generally a pretty good time period.

[00:06:08]Now, you can already see some really interesting confluences. Look at this.

[00:06:13]84,200.

[00:06:16]There's a lot of liquidation levels stacked up here. Now, these are estimated liquidation levels. They're not actual liquidation levels, which is something a lot of people don't understand. Now, when we look at the 80,000, it's actually pretty thin there.

[00:06:32]it just thickens up around that 78,000 around the 77,000 and just around here.

[00:06:41]So you can see at the 84 there's a lot of liquidity. If the market makers can hedge their way up here, they can take a lot of liquidity out of the market. But that's not actually guaranteed because what I want to show you is something interesting. Actually, it's fascinating.

[00:07:00]This is from Coin Analyze. It's the Bitcoin funding rate and predicted funding rate. When you get a negative or red number, that's the shorts. And when you get a long a positive number, that's the longs. So, for example, when you have a negative number, the shorts are paying the longs. And when you have a positive number, the longs are paying the shorts. And this is all about perpetual futures just bringing everything back into harmony with the spot price through the funding rate.

[00:07:31]Now, the predicted funding rate and the variation here is significant. You can see on Binance 38 goes to 71. So the market is leaning more bearish. So the expectation is for it to come down. On BitMEX it's like 8 versus 51. So the expectation is for it to come down. On buy bit it goes positive then it goes negative. This is a big difference of 61 there. They are expecting it to come down. Hubby doesn't know. Hyperlquid from 89 down to six. Another stacking.

[00:08:09]What about Kraken? 43 to 34. Not so much, but expecting downward price momentum. OKX doesn't know. Woo X getting double. Look at this. So the for example, the Bitcoin funding rate, the predicted funding rate is expecting a movement down. Now the real question is a movement down to where? If you're an options trader or a futures trader or you're just dabbling in it, you're probably looking at the options and futures market and saying, "Oh, it's those levels." But the truth is, it's not. So, before we get into that, let's just alter this stuff around 84 276. I'm just going to move this one. This takes care of this level. Now, moving it down, we'll just say around the 80,000. It's just a little bit up. say 80,200.

[00:09:04]Okay, we've popped that in. 84, 276, and 80,200.

[00:09:10]Now, notice this. You can see how oil is just going down a little bit and Bitcoin is going up a little bit. Huh. This is pretty interesting stuff. This is intercorrelation and interconnection.

[00:09:23]Oil is just one component of row one.

[00:09:26]There are seven others. And when you use row one and row two together, oh, you have a superpower. Finance theory tells us about the random walk and market pricing in information and all sorts of things. It says basically that price is random. Price is not random. It is structural. So what we're going to do here is to look into this specific area just here. Now we know that oil was decaying and that brought risk on behavior back into the market. Now what we need to do is to be aware of options levels and futures levels and liquidation levels. All of that stuff is really important. But the most important thing that we need to be aware of is structure. According to level one and level two standard certification, the structure is represented in dashed lines of varying widths and also varying positions. There can be gaps between structure and where price is is important. Price is like this, you're likely to gap up. If price is like this, you're likely to gap down. These are called panic gaps. Now, these particular dash lines are called Stanfield levels, SLS, or CTKS levels. They're a leading indicator of price. They're based on standards level one and level two, and they represent the highest probability and strength. The strength comes from the thickness of future changes there or like this in algorithmic order flow and liquidity. These are the things that drive the futures market and the options market and of course the spot market. So these future changes in algorithmic order flow and liquidity, they're used to identify market reactions in terms of direction and momentum before price prints. That means we read them to the right. So price is doing this. We're reading our levels from this perspective. We already know where resistance is. if price was in the middle and we already know where support is as well. So, let's check back the past 24 hours. Okay, let's go back to Bitcoin. Bitcoin controls everything inside the crypto market. One thing, when too many people lean to one side, there's a potential for a squeeze. If everybody is bearish, the potential is to get squeezed to the upside. If everybody is bullish, the potential is like aka oil, the potential is a downside squeeze. So you must be aware of these factors. So applying level one and level two standard certification, we create these SLS. You can see them on the chart. Now what happened in the past 24 hours? We lost the 81600 level. It got a little bit wobbly and then it started to regain. And we know why it started to regain, but it had to push through this level. You can see it getting caught here, caught here, just macking around in here, getting a very fast impulsive wave up to the 82,600 structural resistance level. And we know that there was a liquidation level in there as well. But understanding intercorrelation, interconnection structure, the futures market, the options market, and the spot market, it may sound like a mouthful, but you just get there slowly. So, how do you eat an elephant? Well, slowly. Just like everything in life, it takes time to learn things. But we knew that this level was really, really strong and it stopped price from going up just at the same time that oil did a rebound. So you can see that we lost that level, lost that level, lost that level, and we're literally hovering around this structural support level at around 81 12,000. So the 812,000 is very important. It is like totally important to keep your eye on this that the crypto market is not just controlled structurally from Bitcoin. There's another chart that structurally is the Rolls-Royce.

[00:13:57]Looking how the money comes into the market and goes out of the market is really really important. So looking at your crypto funding flows is absolutely essential. We had a breakout. So this was the market funding into crypto as oil tanked. The funding came in until the resistance above was just too great and then it pushed it down. But it didn't fall like a brick to zero. It fell like a brick to structure. So where is price exploding up to structure?

[00:14:32]Where is it falling to? Structure. It's not going to the moon. It's going to structure. And it's not going to zero, it's going to structure all the time. So when you keep your eye on the structure, it is an absolute gamecher.

[00:14:47]An absolutely critical chart to look at structurally is total crypto market cap.

[00:14:53]Now when we look at total crypto market cap around this 2.66 trillion is a fantastic structural level. And look how it's been obeyed. We always know that we read to the right. So when we look at any particular chart, we're looking to the right, observing price, and saying if you come down back into that tail, we're going to get supported because this is a very key level inside the crypto market. And remember that rally, Bitcoin came up into structure, strong structure, total crypto market, which means the entirety of the crypto market came into strong structure. the Elgos fired and said, "Thou shalt not pass."

[00:15:37]and pushed it down to this structural level. As an options trader, as a futures trader, as a professional trader, if you don't know your structure, you're just gambling. And if you're just doing well without knowing structure, can you imagine what you could do if you knew it? And you can mark structure up yourself. a skill for a lifetime applicable to any candlestick chart. Now what this means we actually got a bounce inside the crypto market because total came into structure and the algos are funding across the crypto market right now. But we need to understand just going forward in time how things will move. If of course we don't get above this 2.67 67. It's just creating a low downtrend, a lower trend line. So, just be aware of this. If we start to break up, we know exactly where the structure is in terms of reading across charts. Now, if you're just getting into the market, it can be a little bit overwhelming, but just like everything, everybody starts from a zero knowledge base and they just add to it.

[00:16:54]A baby doesn't know anything but it just learns over time through the years.

[00:16:59]That's exactly what we all do. So one of the things that you can see ah oil is ticking up now just throwing a little bit of negative momentum inside the crypto market. But what you want to be aware of is the wild swings. The wild swings are more definitive than little blips up or down. So you know that above Bitcoin is a lot of structure. You also know that the market is leading leaning short at the current time. We also know that the options market and the futures market are just hammering in 80,000 as an area of interest. But we also know that around that 79,900 there is structural support and we've got structural support as well. There's a bit of a panic gap. So if the market doesn't get above 81,600, it remains vulnerable to downside pressure. So always remember the markets can be vulnerable to downside pressure and then intercorrelation can push them back up into levels. But the levels are very very powerful. They are literally the architecture of the market. I hope this video has really helped you out to position. So from a bullish case, we need to get above 81600. The market is leaning a little bit negative at the moment, but that doesn't mean it's going negative. If we get another drop in oil like this, all of those shorts will get liquidated. We'll push up to the 82 1/2 and that's our next resistance level. So we know exactly where the resistance is inside the market. If for example oil spikes up that can create and just keep your eyes on the yields as well and the dollar just keep your eye on the cheat sheet. That would be very bad for the markets and we could get a play down. So the bulls and the bears always have their fun. For example, the bears are right. The bulls are right. The bears are right. The bulls are right. The bears are right. The bulls are really, really correct. And the bears are on fire. And then the bulls come back. You get the idea. 24 hours is a long, long period of time. You've got to think in terms of price waves, not absolute moves. Because an absolute move over 24 hours does not occur. You get a pricewave move. This can be an absolute gamecher when you embrace it. All you literally need to do is to keep your eyes on the structural levels. Just like we mark out the options market and the futures market, we can do exactly the same with the structural behavior of the market. Don't forget to read through your charts. Just keep your eyes on it because if Bitcoin goes up, the entire crypto market will go up with it. So, it's very important if Bitcoin comes down, the entire crypto market will come down, but they will also move structurally. So, you've got a couple of rules in there that will really help you out. Please let me know if there's anything else I can shed light on. I would love to do it for you. Kate and I are here so that you succeed. We're together every day trying to deliver the best possible value alpha that we can give you. So if we can do anything for you, we would absolutely love to do so.

[00:20:34]Our focus is to give you an institutional edge to help you look through the markets like a professional would. And it's important not to trade any leverage if you do not understand what you're doing. Leverage magnifies gains, but the gains will not come. The losses will if you don't understand.

[00:20:52]Only knowledge profits. It's like every single endeavor you do in life. Most traders and investors panic when they see a big up or a big down. We don't do that. We prepare. Please let me know in the comments. How do you prepare for price volatility? How do you keep your eyes on the market? How do you scan for opportunities? These are things that are really good to share and I would love to share some comments with in sharing Steven Mary Allen's comments. It's opened up a whole new world of how you can look. So when you share something, you benefit not only yourself by clarifying what you already know, but you benefit the community. And what benefits the community benefits you in return because I can cover things that I know you're interested in. So if you would like to answer those questions, please pause the video and answer because we're getting towards the end and I don't want your comment to get wiped out.

[00:21:53]And I would also love to share your comment in the next video. Have a great day or night ahead, my friends. And Kate and I look forward to catching up with you again in the next video. Bye for now.