Here's why the Atlantic hurricane season could look quieter this year

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:01]This is WSMV4 [music] News with First Alert Weather.

[00:00:07]>> Hello, welcome in to today's edition of First Alert Weather Plus. Meteorologist Arias Mack here and we are talking about the latest with the drought monitor.

[00:00:17]That's what we're going to be looking at more closely as well. It's actually shown lots of improvements compared to say the last couple of months. So, some noticeable improvements with that updated drought monitor, but also coming up in just a few days is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. So, that begins June 1st and last through November 30th. So, we're going to be taking a look at what forecasters are expecting the latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, otherwise known as NOAA, as they earlier did release their forecast and they're calling for at least a lower than normal hurricane season. So, we're going to dive into what factors could be playing into that as well. So, all of that to talk about a little bit later.

[00:01:02]But, here's the latest with that drought monitor with that update. Lots of improvements here compared to what we've seen again over the last couple of months. So, areas that were under an extreme or even severe levels of drought, or I should say areas that were under severe levels of drought, are under extreme or under moderate levels of drought. So, extreme levels of drought still out there across say East Middle Tennessee towards the plateau, but we're seeing moderate levels of drought now showing up. So, this is quite an improvement because you go from dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional. Extreme right now is the highest that we're seeing on the map when it comes to the drought level and then moderate is just the next level up from dry. So, again, it's showing significant improvements with that drought monitor that we are seeing here in Middle Tennessee. So, we did we did get some beneficial rains over the last really week uh where we actually had 5 days straight of getting in with some soaking downpours across uh Middle Tennessee.

[00:02:14]So, many areas picked up on quite a deal of uh water.

[00:02:18]It was necessary uh for a lot of areas. So, you go towards West Middle Tennessee uh for you folks there, you still got uh at least severe level of drought showing up there. But, again, compared to areas that again were under that extreme level of drought, I mean, you're literally looking at one um level down now. So, everybody almost everybody is just at least one level down than where they were with an update last week. All right, let's talk about the hurricane season. That begins again on June 1st and last through November 30th. And specifically, the reason we focus so much on the Atlantic hurricane season, well, the Atlantic coast, the Gulf coast, those are areas to get most affected by any type of uh tropical system that develops. We get a lot of our um uh and uh systems that impact the US or affect the US mainly from the Atlantic Ocean. Very rarely do we talk about the Pacific Ocean uh impacting a lot of the US. So, again, it's right along the coastal areas along the again, East Coast and Gulf Coast are the areas to watch for when it comes to the Atlantic hurricane season. That's why we focus on that so closely and monitor what's going on in the Atlantic. So, coming up later though, as we get into the season, it's possible that we could be dealing with a slower or at least quieter than normal uh hurricane season just given the fact that there's just certain things going on uh in the atmosphere. And we're going to be taking a look at that. There's certain signals, global patterns that that do impact the Atlantic hurricane season for this one coming up. So, we're going to be talking about that here in just a moment. But, here's the latest from CSU. So, Colorado State earlier they did release hurricane outlook. So far they think there will be a total of 13 named storms this season, six hurricanes and only two major hurricanes. And from NOAA, they just released this a few days ago. So, they're calling for between 8 to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes. Now, they're expecting roughly a little over 50% that this could be roughly over 50% chance that is that this could be a below normal hurricane season in the Atlantic. So, our season average typically around 14 named storms, um around seven named hurricanes and they're thinking that we could be on the lower end of that range of what they're calling for for the season coming up.

[00:04:57]And then they're forecasting one to three major hurricanes. So, that's what we're looking at as far as what they are predicting. And the reason why is again, it all comes down to what's happening around our planet. So, areas that can get indirectly affected by certain things such as El Nino, La Nina. Those are two just big players that can control what kind of weather we can expect. So, El Nino, this is an occurrence that happens roughly every two to seven years or so. And so, the forecast I think as we're looking and monitoring and looking at those warmer waters developing there in the equatorial Pacific is calling for an even stronger El Nino that could develop as you go throughout this summer. So, that could be a big player on how things shape up again with the Atlantic hurricane season. So, we're looking at 2026 storm names.

[00:05:56]And this is what they have released so far. So, one on the list is Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, uh Edward.

[00:06:03]That's an interesting way to spell Edward. I think or maybe it's Edouard.

[00:06:08]However, you uh pronounce that, but that's an interesting way to spell that.

[00:06:10]So, you got some names there on the list including Fay, Gonzalo, um Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, um and then going down the list Omar, Paulette, Renee.

[00:06:22]Uh last one on the list would be Wilfrid. So, these all just released again a few days ago as they just released that uh earlier um in the week uh with these uh storm names. So, that's what they have came up with so far with those storm names. All right. So, we're looking at uh let's see here. We skipped one frame. Let's go back. Let's go back here. For some reason it skipped that frame. Okay.

[00:06:48]So, we are looking at typical hurricane activity during an El Nino. So, an El Nino is a result of weaker trade winds. So, the trade winds that normally uh would travel, say, uh from east to west will start moving back from west to east. And with those weaker trade winds, well, that creates less shear and also allows for waters to really warm up especially off the coast of South America. So, it's typically right around that area and near the equatorial Pacific where you'll find warmer than average ocean uh or sea surface temperatures there.

[00:07:26]And so, that is kind of a characteristic of what El Nino is. And with that, that actually creates pretty unstable uh atmosphere conditions there. As the air rises, uh you get warmer waters. Uh a a of that heat will continue to build and build and build and you start to get storms to form right along there. So you get warmer than normal waters but not only that but pretty wet conditions there as well as uh they could be dealing with several uh storms that develop in that region. Now on the contrary because of the warmer waters there you get sinking air towards the Atlantic and it's typically a little drier and there's more wind shear. So the trade winds are a little weaker towards the Pacific but stronger towards uh the Atlantic coast. Well in order for a hurricane or any type of tropical system to develop and thrive uh shear um is something that could mess that up. So they really typically go off of warmer waters and low shear environments in order to really thrive and really develop. So in this case with an El Nino typically or historically they've been associated with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic basin just given the fact that there's more wind shear that could uh really inhibit or hinder the development of uh building storms or even hurricanes there. Now on the contrary for areas that are towards the Pacific well you get of course those warmer waters and less shear. So again that's going to be kind of that environment where hurricanes do thrive and where they form and could perform best. So typically you get more hurricanes in the Pacific and then fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and so that's just one of the factors that could play into dealing with a uh kind of a quieter uh hurricane season this year. Now I do want to point out that you know that's just one factor. There could be other things uh to look at. Of course this is a forecast that's given off of uh global climatological uh patterns here, so just kind of looking at you know, how are we piecing this together? We know El Niño's happening.

[00:09:49]Uh what typically happens during an El Niño? Uh in other cases, La Niña would be the opposite where you're dealing with those cooler waters. Well, La Niña's kind of uh the opposite. We would see typically associated with more hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. So, in this case, since we are expecting uh at least a stronger El Niño, that could again uh mean that there could be some uh fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and more hurricanes again in the Pacific.

[00:10:15]So, that's just something to keep in mind of. Doesn't necessarily mean though that that could pan out, uh but again, historically, it's just been fewer hurricanes associated with an El Niño pattern. All right, here's the look at tropical climatology. So, again, June 1st through November 30th is the Atlantic hurricane season. So, again, just a few days, it's uh going to begin, but uh typically, we don't see the peak of hurricane season until about, say, mid to late September. You see the peak of that and that activity mostly with tropical uh storms and uh even some hurricanes that increase again right along uh that window between September and October is where you typically see the peak of hurricane season at least in the Atlantic basin. So, that's what uh things are looking like, at least could pan out typically uh during the Atlantic hurricane season. But again, just a reminder that we got a strong El Niño forecasted, so that could be a key player into um why there could be fewer hurricanes expected for the um Atlantic hurricane season. Doesn't necessarily mean that there won't be hurricanes necessarily, uh but uh doesn't mean to let your guard down and to not monitor of course during the peak time of the Atlantic hurricane season, but we again could see fewer hurricanes at least expected from forecasters given the fact that we do have an El Nino that's going on and that's going to continue to strengthen throughout the summer season.

[00:11:52]All right, First Alert Meteorologist Darius Mack here. Hope you guys are having a fantastic day. Hey, it is pretty humid out there. If you're stepping outside, you may notice that I mean it it is just so quick how how things heat up out there when you add humidity in the mix. So, that's what we got going on today. Temperatures are in the 80s. All in all though not a bad day to get out and enjoy it. Just make sure that you stay hydrated out there. All right, to