BITCOIN: This Bullish Reversal Signal Is One Big TRAP!

追加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Over the last few days, we've seen some pretty rapid developments on Bitcoin. I know it doesn't look like it because the price remains in a similar level, but we've actually seen a breakout from a two-monthlong symmetrical triangle formation, which has been supported by a volume surge. We've seen a weekly chart MACD bullish cross, which historically speaking has been a very bullish indicator, which generally foreshadows bullish price action to the upside. And we've also seen traditional markets see an ex a kind of staggering recovery uh breaking close to all-time highs on the S&P 500. So all three of these things in isolation and on the surface look like they should be game changers. However, none of them actually hold much weight at all. All three of them come together to form some sign some sort of what I would say a cumulative trap. I think it's a trap. I think it's not real. And I think it's price action that is basically going to be misleading a lot of people into flipping bullish when they shouldn't be doing so. So, I'm going to tell you why these three things that have occurred, which seem bullish, are not actually that bullish, and I'm going to show you what you should be watching instead. Most of you guys seem to agree with me. I did a community poll. You can pause and take a look at the poll results. Most people right now seem to be neutral, leaning bearish on my YouTube channel. Uh, even looking at the polls I've done over the last couple of weeks, that seems to be the conclusion that still draws from that.

[00:01:16]So neutral, leaning bearish, macro bearish, short-term maybe neutral, maybe expecting some consolidation. Before we dive in today, let's check out the Betunix exchange. This is a global non-KYC exchange that has never been hacked before. So not a single hack in over 4 and 1/2 years on the market.

[00:01:33]You're not going to get many exchanges in crypto that are like that these days, especially ones that maintain global non KYC status. Uh that's why I use it personally, and that's why I suggest you do so as well. If you use the link down below, you can sign up and get a 15% lifetime trading fee discount. So that's 15% off fees of every single buy and sell literally for life on this exchange. It's the best way to help me out and it's the best way to help out yourself. Uh quite frankly, you can watch all the TA videos you want, but ultimately when you click buy, you got to use an exchange to do so. So use my link to sign up, get that discount, help me out. I appreciate it. So I want to move through the things that have occurred systematically. We'll start with the triangle formation. Why is the bullish triangle formation breakout not a good thing? Surely a breakout of a triangle would have to be a good thing.

[00:02:19]And you're right, it is a good thing to some extent. We had this triangle formation that been forming over the course of 2 months. We've seen a breakout with volume surge. We've come back down. We've retested the support zone. This probably means we should be moving upwards and attacking resistance, right? Well, that would be the case if the range wasn't predominantly marked and characterized via fake out. So for example, this triangle formation was uh our most recent interpretation of the price action. But an equally important interpretation of the price action up until very very recently was an ascending channel formation which still actually could be the case something like this. And this ascending channel formation just like the triangle uh saw a surge of volume to the downside and resistance support flips before getting lost in murkiness of nothing really happening. This could be the same situation with this triangle formation that we've just allegedly broken to the upside. Ultimately, when it comes to medium-term structures like triangle formations, they only matter as much as they can result in longerterm changes to the price action. And so, this triangle formation breaking to the upside is all well and good, but if we can't see materialization of upside price action, and if we can't see Bitcoin actually attacking 80,000 and flipping it, which is the top of the macro range, it ultimately means nothing. And so far, it's been over a day since we broke this level for resistance. And we've seen no real upside price action whatsoever.

[00:03:41]Just constant flipping for the last 12 hours. So, we run the risk of this fizzling out just like it did with the channel formation. Again, looking at the channel formation, we broke this channel to the downside. Let me go ahead and draw it in properly here and we saw that volume surge, but it basically just fizzled out. So, right now, I'm not taking this triangle super seriously.

[00:04:00]I'm looking at it with curiosity and waiting for the upside move. But given the fact that upside move hasn't happened yet, nothing's happened at all.

[00:04:08]What about the weekly chart MACD cross?

[00:04:10]Surely this would have to be bullish, right? Well, not necessarily. Weekly chart MACD crosses are influential. And you can go ahead and take a look in your own chart. They do generally lead to price action to the upside and the downside. I mean, if we just take a look at the last few bullish crosses on the MACD, there's one right here. It led to upside price action. There's one right here. It led to upside price action.

[00:04:30]What about the bearish crosses? There's one and there's one. Both led to downside price action. They seem like they work pretty well. However, they only work contextual uh to the larger macroeconomic environment uh and the larger macro environment specifically for Bitcoin. Okay? So, MACD crosses do not work when the MACD cross itself exists in contrast to the current trend.

[00:04:54]Currently, we in a downwards trend.

[00:04:56]We're in a bearish downwards trend. And so if we look at what happened in the last bare market, for example, we saw a bullish MACD cross in the last bare market. It did not mean anything. It merely led to very short-term local price action and then it led to a massive correction because we were in the bearish trend. The MACD cross was hence invalid. They are momentum indicators fundamentally. And if momentum is shifting downwards on the larger time frames, an indicator like this is not going to be significant enough to trigger an actual reversal.

[00:05:24]Take an example to the contrasting point. So for a bull market, we we're seeing a bull market here. We saw a bearish MACD cross uh right here in 2023. Instead of leading to an actual bare market and reversal, uh it just led to fizzling out of the price action and consolidation. Take a look at 2018. We saw bullish MACD crosses on multiple occasions throughout many many months of price action in 2018. None of them actually led to the upside price action.

[00:05:47]Instead, the MACD basically flattened until we saw a further correction. And only at the end of the bull market, when the cycle permitted it, did we see a cross that actually worked. So, I don't think that MACD crosses uh inherently are signs of bullish reversal. I think it's one of many things you can look at when weighing up whether we're going to be seeing a continuation of the bare market or a bullish reversal. And in fact, in our last two bare markets in 2018 and 2022, we saw a bullish MACD cross both times that ultimately did not work. And so, using that as an interpretation of the current price action, I don't see any reason to assume that this one will work alone. Now, if we come up, and this is true for all three of the things I'm going to look at here today. If we come up and break $80,000, we break out of the current price range, that would validate the triangle. It would validate the MACD cross. Uh, and of course, it would be an indicator that we're going to be seeing bullish price action. My argument here in this video is that we should be waiting for that to happen in order to be bullish rather than jumping the gun and flipping bullish too early. We need actual confirmation that these indicators are more than what they seem to be. And this kind of brings us into our last bullish indicator at this point. That is the S&P 500, which has been climbing to new all-time highs.

[00:06:58]Now, historically speaking, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been relatively connected. It has not been a perfect connection by any means whatsoever. In fact, the trend so far is that the S&P 500 lags behind Bitcoin. Bitcoin topped out 2 months early uh in 2018. Bitcoin topped out, I think, two months early again in 2022 or 2021. And this time Bitcoin topped out in September or October rather and the S&P's yet to top yet. So the the trend in in terms of the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P is the correlation is not very strong and it generally materializes as the S&P 500 lagging behind Bitcoin. So yes, it's it's lagging behind Bitcoin this time.

[00:07:37]There's no change there. Now some people would say the lag is way more aggressive and that's true. It's been 6 months instead of two months here and that does raise some eyebrows. Perhaps it suggests that some things are changing, but it doesn't necessarily suggest that Bitcoin has to go upwards just cuz the S&P 500 is doing so. What it actually suggests instead, in my view, is that the correlation is weakening. If we look at Bitcoin's here in blue and the S&P is here in white, uh the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P was very, very sharp back in the price cycle. Um especially from 2021 onwards, in 2022, it was basically matching every single move the S&P did. Uh it didn't match in scale, but it matched it in structure.

[00:08:13]Now, for the last year almost, uh the S&P and Bitcoin have completely deviated in their price action entirely. So, we have local deviations here. Local deviations that have confirmed that Bitcoin is trusting the cycle more than it is trusting any sort of S&P 500 correlation. And so, why would we not roll with that? I don't understand. A lot of people who use the bullish argument here are suggesting that the S&P 500 is going to pull Bitcoin to the upside. However, they completely ignore the fact that in the last full year of price action, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin have had very little to do with each other and Bitcoin has instead been trusting its four-year cycle. So, why would that change now? Why would you not trust the status quo? What evidence do you have to suggest that Bitcoin will relink to the S&P 500? The answer is you have no zero, you know, evidence, zero evidence. You have only intuition and you have only baseless theories. The the the fact of the matter is and the things we can actually prove on the charts right now is that Bitcoin is following the four-year cycle. Bitcoin copied the 4-year cycle perfectly. It topped out in October perfectly. It's on the way down to a cyclical low. So far, it looks perfectly normal. Furthermore, Bitcoin is copying a fractal from 2022 pretty much perfectly. Uh, you know, some people are saying there's structural deviations here. I completely disagree.

[00:09:29]If we go ahead and measure how long it took for Bitcoin to get to step three in this fractal, it took 210 days in 2022.

[00:09:37]So far, we are currently about 190 days in. We're about 20 days ahead of schedule. We can consolidate even further here and we'd still be on track.

[00:09:45]The idea that Bitcoin has to copy the S&P 500 simply because the S&P 500 is rising uh ignores the whole last year of price action and completely ignores the fact that the correlation between the S&P and Bitcoin was never actually that strong in the first place. Bitcoin and the S&P can remain correlated, but they can remain correlated in a much more diluted sense. For example, uh they can remain correlated in direction but not remain correlated in percentage move in the direction they move. So we could see uh Bitcoin go up 10%, the S&P 500 go up 1%. And when the S&P 500 drops 10%, Bitcoin drops 50%. Right? So they can remain correlated in movement without actually remaining correlated in overall structure when they reach all-time highs, when they reach all-time lows, etc. By the way, that's how most assets that are correlated actually work in function. Uh suggesting that the S&P has to follow Bitcoin or Bitcoin has to follow the S&P is completely missing the point. So, we have a triangle formation which has broken to the upside and hasn't actually materialized into anything bullish yet. We have a MACD cross uh which is suggesting a trend reversal, but the people who think it's suggesting a trend reversal are ignoring the fact that this has happened in every single bare market we've ever seen and it's never actually led to a trend reversal. And we have people saying that the S&P is going to drag Bitcoin to the upside who are ignoring all of the evidence suggesting that Bitcoin and the S&P are pretty much untethered right now and have been for the last year. So, on the surface level, all three of these things look like they should be really, really bullish, but none of them actually mean anything at all. And this brings me back uh to the point I keep making over and over again. What you guys need to do is trust the longer term range. Trust $80,000, trust $60,000, wait for one of these levels to break, and then uh move forward with a validation of the future scenario. So far, we are in a macro downwards trend.

[00:11:36]And so, the break of $60,000 looks more likely than not. That macro downwards trend has come about because of something like the 4-year cycle, because of something like the 2022 fractal. And so, we should be looking at these things and trusting them until they are proven to be broken, which would only happen if we broke above something like $80,000. A lot of bullish indicators have come in over the last week. A lot of people are saying they're going to lead to a trend reversal. I frankly see absolutely no evidence of that yet. And if I do see evidence of it, of course, I'll let you know. The audio quality on this YouTube channel is going to be bad for a few more weeks. I apologize for that. I'm currently traveling and I don't have a microphone with me. I thought it'd sound a little bit better, but it doesn't, unfortunately. Uh hopefully you can bear with me. Thanks for watching, guys. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, check out the Bitunix exchange. As I mentioned at the start of the video, uh this is a global exchange. It's non KYC. It's never been hacked before. It's been on the market for about 4 and 1/2 years. So that makes it in basically an elite percentage of exchanges that don't have security history uh security breach history and don't have all these problems with KYC and all these problems with being unaccessible in certain regions. Very few exchanges are like this still in crypto. Uh and that's why I use it personally. It's why I suggest you guys do it as well. Everyone watching this video can sign up and use my referral link down below and they'll get a 15% trading fee discount attached to their account for life. So use that link to sign up. I appreciate it and I'll catch you guys