A MAJOR El Nino Is Rapidly Developing...

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]Good morning, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to Weather on the Go, all your weather coverage. My name is Hunter. It is Wednesday, May 27th, 2026. Hopefully everybody's having a wonderful Wednesday and wonderful week out there. It is the 147th day of the year, and we're going to be looking ahead at the summer season. What are you to expect with temperatures, precipitation, severe weather, wildfires, drought, the hurricane season? We're going to unpack it all for you in this video. We're going to look ahead to fall of 2026 briefly as well at the end. So, make sure to like this video, give it a thumbs up, share this video with friends, family, and on social media. I really appreciate it.

[00:00:38]And subscribe to the YouTube channels.

[00:00:40]We cover the United States, southern Canada, and the tropics for tropical weather season on a daily basis. We give you an accurate and detailed breakdown of what you can expect on a daily basis.

[00:00:51]So, make sure to subscribe. It's free to do. And let's get into the forecast details here for today. And let's look at the burgeoning El Nino that we are dealing with out here in the equatorial Pacific. And you can see with those orange, even red colors out here south of Hawaii and extending eastward toward the coast to South America, that is warmer sea surface temperature anomalies. And that is indicative of a strengthening El Nino. And we are already classified at weak El Nino status per the Climate Prediction Center. And this is only going to get more into moderate and eventually strong El Nino status as we get closer to late summer, fall, and then winter of 2026.

[00:01:34]Turn your attention east of Hawaii here into the East Pacific. You see these really warm waters here. This is a positive PMM. This is a positive Pacific meridional mode and this is enhancing the subtropical jet across the southern tier of the country. Also watching another marine heat wave that is actually feeding into a typhoon east of Japan and this is extending out just south of Alaska towards the north central Pacific. This could play a key role in the jetream orientation for this summer as well. Here's the El Nino with the Nino 3.4 four index. And yes, we are firmly in a weak El Nino at this point.

[00:02:13]And we are awaiting a Kelvin wave that is really going to be uh burgeoning this El Nino even further as we go into the middle of summer as we see that warm sea surface temperatures even at lower depths start to arise at the surface.

[00:02:30]And this is going to allow the El Nino to strengthen more into moderate and strong territory heading into late summer and then the fall of 2026.

[00:02:40]Looking here at the upper level pattern in late May in the final few days here, we got a big ridge in red extending from the coast of Greenland down through Hudson Bay and Canada and into the northern tier of the United States. And you walk outdoors, it's hot up here into the upper Midwest and southern Canada.

[00:02:58]cool on the either side and underneath because of the lower pressure. You can see in blue, we got a cut off low down here in California and the Great Basin.

[00:03:06]And then we got another one uh in the North Atlantic extending back toward the Northeast US. And then we got that subtropical jet feature underneath. And this is an Omega block, right? This is a classic omega block pattern. You get a big ridge of high pressure in between.

[00:03:21]You got a low pressure on either side of it. and it's blocking a lot of the flow from getting into the upper Midwest, which is drying us out. It's heating us up as we go through the next several days. And we look at the latest drought monitor that was released past Thursday on May 21st. We'll have a new one tomorrow. But you can see a lot of the deep south, much of the Southeast, the Rockies, and the West, we're seeing significant widespread drought. The areas that really aren't seeing drought is the Midwest, parts of the Ohio Valley, interior Northeast, and the Great Lakes. And that's because of some heavy April rainfall that we saw. And there are some patchy areas in say Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois that are starting to get abnormally dry. And that's what we're going to be keeping an eye on. But if we look ahead to the US seasonal drought outlook for the summer heading through August 31st, 2026, you can see areas in yellow where drought development, more widespread significant drought is likely to develop. The Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and into the northern plains.

[00:04:22]Notice the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, and interior Northeast remain pretty much untouched through the summer with drought. You see improvements in the four corners region.

[00:04:32]So Arizona, New Mexico, up there into Utah and Colorado, southern Wyoming with the monsoon flow. And then the current flow we're seeing with the subtropical jet along the Gulf Coast that is feeding into improvements of the drought. Not drought busting, but improvements from Texas to Florida all the way into the Dixie Alley there across the Gulf Coast.

[00:04:50]Let's look here at the MJO, the Madden Julian Oscillation. And this is kind of driving the Pacific Ocean a little bit with the forecast at least in the short term through the 10th of June. And we are in phase six heading into phase seven at this point. And we are getting into phase eight and potentially it reverts back to phase 7 or into a null phase as we see it go back toward the circle as we get into the around the 9th 10th 11th of June which would be that second week in June. So how does this play forward here over the next few days? Well, we're seeing a lot of heat.

[00:05:24]We mentioned across portions of the southern Canadian prairies, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, western Ontario, the upper Midwest, northern plains, a lot of us seeing those 80s, those 90s.

[00:05:35]It's a drier heat, but it is really heating up the ground and it's making it dry out a little bit where underneath you get that horseshoe look here of across the west coast, the southern tier across the southern branch of the US and then the eastern seabboard and that heads up towards Quebec and New Finland where we do actually have those below normal temperature anomalies. Now, we look at the flow underneath it and that's why is because there's a lot more cloud cover, there's a lot more precipitation, thus keeping the temperatures cooler. So, as we go through the rest of May, you can see that high that's up here and just kind of stuck that omega block we showed you.

[00:06:11]And that high pressure is really not budging much and a lot of the moisture repelling away from it. So, west, south, and east of it where the upper Midwest seems to really be dry on a more consistent basis. Could there be some showers, some isolated thunderstorms in the upper Midwest is a completely bone dry no. I think areas in Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin could potentially see some afternoons with an isolated shower storm, but the coverage of these are likely to be 10, 20, 30%. So, not a widespread big rain across the upper Midwest. And you can see a lot of the rainfall here is going to be propelling away from that high. So, the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, interior Northeast going to remain largely dry on a widespread scale. And then you can see a lot of the Rockies, the southern plains, the southeast region, the deep south, we're going to be a lot wetter.

[00:07:00]And this is going to put a big dent in our drought. So if we go back to the drought monitor, you can see those areas in orange, red, and maroon red. Those are severe, extreme, and then exceptional drought, which is the exceptional drought is the worst on the drought monitor in maroon red. And you can see a widespread area, North Florida, southern southeast Georgia into the low country of South Carolina seeing that exceptional drought. And it does look like if we go back here, that is the very area that sees the heaviest rainfall in this pattern. So this is a wonderful pattern for our friends in North Florida, Gainesville, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, up there towards Savannah, Georgia. But unfortunately for areas in the upper Midwest, it's going to be drying us out a little bit here in the short term. Now let's take a look at the West Pacific. I know when you look at weather, you're probably like, "What are you talking about?" Well, we have a typhoon that is likely to develop here just into areas of the Philippine Sea and heading up toward the coast of Japan. Now, this is going to alter the jetream, especially towards the middle of June. And you can see that typhoon as we get to the end of May making its way up there towards Japan and the coast of Japan. So, that is something to keep an eye on. And the response in the atmosphere is a very strong Pacific jet that is going to get stronger by the day as we go through week one and then week two of June. Look at that high pressure start to build on the backside of that uh typhoon over top of that where right we get the air flow clockwise around a high. We get a powerful jet extension across the North Pacific and that is heading up towards the Pacific Northwest of the United States. So, let's look here at June, the 30-day average, right?

[00:08:40]We're looking at some warmer than normal temperature anomalies, especially west and central. Areas east, especially east of the Mississippi River, are in white.

[00:08:49]That's normal temperatures for June. And then we see below normal temperatures for June. And a lot of this is probably an early June bias across the southeast where we see a lot of cloud cover, precipitation holding our temperatures back. But you get the idea. Warmest west and we see the coolest to the east. How about looking at precipitation? Very dry. Look to the Pacific Northwest and including British Columbia and we see a very dry look in the plains. Now, this is more towards late June. I think this pattern holds. I think the bias is early June. We see a wetter southeast and a wetter east. And then that monsunal flow will start to filter in as we get towards mid and late June across the four corners region and west Texas. How far west does that monsunal flow get?

[00:09:31]How far north does it get? That's a big question mark at this point. And then you see the northwest flow. If we can establish a high later in June, say toward Father's Day weekend, the last couple weeks of June there after the 15th of June, uh we could see that northwest flow return to the upper Midwest and the Ohio Valley in Great Lakes region. So, let's walk you through the pattern here week by week through June as it's kind of in our medium to long range. And you can see uh this is week one. So, June 1st through June 8th, it we still got that high extending down from Canada into the northern US. that's keeping us hot and steamy. Not really a humid pattern, just a hot, dry look across the north. Cooler and wetter across the south. And then as we go into week two, still kind of seeing that look, although we're seeing slight pattern handoff because of that typhoon effect on the North Pacific pattern.

[00:10:22]That's going to only affect the pattern downstream in North America. So that high could start to back its way towards the west. How fast does that occur is the big question. Does it occur in week two of June or does it occur here in week three? Right now, a lot of the consensus is week three. After Father's Day weekend, we should start to establish a high a little bit further off towards the western US with that northwest flow coming in into the upper Midwest and cooling us off a little bit in the east. And that would take us into the last week of June, the 22nd through the 30th with a little bit of that heat trying to extend back towards the say Missouri Valley and the Midwest. How about a week- toeek precipitation for June, week one, this is June 1st through the 8th, we see a drier look like we're seeing now in late May that continues in earnest through the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest also pretty dry there. A wet look across the southern plains, the Gulf Coast, and those key drought areas, right? Southern Georgia, North Florida, and then we see as we go into week two of June, attempts at moisture coming back north. I don't know that it comes back into the upper Midwest quite in week two, but I do feel there's some uptick in moisture on a isolated to scattered basis. Is this going to be a widespread significant rain event for the Midwest? No. I think we're going to still see some spotty dryness in week two of June, which is the 8th through the 15th. And then as we go from the uh 15th through the 22nd, I think then we start to see more established northwest flow come back and this storm complex threat which we got to watch because if we see some instability build in the plains over top that instability if that high starts to establish and then with the increase of monsunal flow that could lead to what we call a datio pattern. Now it's not a slam dunk. The air flow around a high pressure as we know it is clockwise and the high is going to be much further west than on this graphic. So keep that in mind. But you get the idea that a datio pattern could be starting to set up with that northwest flow. Higher instability there. And then in red doss this year are most likely from eastern and southeastern South Dakota through Iowa and southern Minnesota through northeastern and eastern Missouri much of Illinois in the land of Lincoln there getting down into Indiana and Kentucky.

[00:12:38]And in orange, they're likely as well.

[00:12:40]And then in the datio possible is in the yellow. And again, this is not a slam dunk look for June. I think the main datio window this summer will be mid July through mid August. So July 15th roughly through roughly August 15th. So keep that in mind here for the summer forecast. And as we look into July, you can see where the high is positioned. We might see a high more up into the Pacific Northwest. And that would keep the northwest flow a little bit further westward toward the plains. And then the east is still kind of on the normal to slightly above normal with temperatures.

[00:13:14]But July's messy of a look where we see precipitation. We got that strong monsunal flow coming up from Mexico. We got that strong northwest flow coming over top that high. Where does that kind of meet up? Right now it looks to be the plains and the Midwest. Gets a lot wetter as we go into July. And then looking at August, the heat comes back east into the plains as we establish potentially a high down here from the southern plains. That subtropical high pressure and that could get us a more messy look for precipitation in August with still some hints at that monsunal flow in the Rockies and then more of that northwest flow over the top. And we could be seeing a positioning of a high so strong in August that that could actually push the northwest flow pretty far north towards the US Canadian border and then more east with time towards the mid-Atlantic and Northeast in August. As we look at the summer as a whole, June, July, August, that three-month period here we're about to go into, you can see the hottest temperatures will be in the Pacific Northwest and down in the central US where the east, especially eastern Canada, we're going to be seeing cooler air than normal and a messy look for precipitation. It will vary from month to month due to the MJO going through its phases, due to potentially some recurvature of the Pacific uh tropical season and what may be happening down here in the Caribbean as well. So, a lot going on and there's just all these puzzle pieces that have to be put together for the summer season. Now, as we look at the fall, this is a much more El Nino look as well. And you can see warmer over the top, high pressure in Canada, the northern US, and lower pressure with that subtropical influence with the subtropical jet underneath. And this is what you get with the subtropical jet.

[00:14:57]You get recurvature of Pacific tropical systems. You get more of the influence of the east Pacific, the subtropical jet, and you get much wetter down here in Texas, much of Arkansas, the southeast, up the eastern seabboard, where areas in the Pacific Northwest, northern plains, and upper Midwest, parts of the upper Great Lakes region, but especially southern Canada, the polar jet retreats well north, right?

[00:15:20]It's going to go over top that ridge. If we have a ridge in Canada, that polar jet is going to be diffuse way up there toward the Arctic Circle and we're going to be drying out across the northern tier of the nation. Let's look at the hurricane season out here briefly in the Atlantic basin. And looking at the sea surface temperatures in the main development region or what meteorologists call the MDR from the coast of Ala of Africa all the way back to the Lesser Antilles here in the eastern Caribbean. Uh, very cool, actually below normal. And the warmest anomalies in the West Atlantic and into the Gulf right now and maybe a little bit of the western Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and toward Cuba and even especially over here toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Very warm sea surface temperatures. We look at the season ahead for June, July, and August. It looks dry. A lot of this uh flow is going to be dry through here. And because of that, we're going to be seeing more recurvature of systems coming back towards the Bahamas and into the tropical North Atlantic. We do have to watch in the short term though as we go through the middle of June at least more of those uh those kind of homegrown systems near Florida as we have lower pressure under that high that's sitting up here in the Great Lakes. That could still spark up a a tropical depression or storm, which would be helpful for Florida for a rainfall perspective.

[00:16:38]Maybe not so far the winds, but as we go into the fall, this is September, October, November, you can still see the main development region very quiet and very quiet, exceptionally quiet in the Caribbean. And that is a byproduct of El Nino with a lot of wind shear out here.

[00:16:55]Remember, tropical systems don't like wind shear. Kind of rips them apart. But homegrown systems in the North Gulf into the Eastern Gulf and the Western Atlantic, we got to watch Florida. We got to watch the Carolinas and coastal Georgia here even into the fall. Just because it's an El Nino and it's a quiet season doesn't mean we can't see a hurricane down here homegrown in the Gulf that could rapidly intensify in September, October or November. How about the East Pacific? We know how warm it is. We just showed you at the beginning of the video. Well, right now it's very active here in the East Pacific. And I think it's going to continue to be very active and get even more active through June, July, and August as we see more tropical systems.

[00:17:34]I think Hawaii could be more at risk for a tropical system or hurricane this season than we have in the past several years. And that's especially true as we go into the fall of 2026, September, October, November. And recurvature of that Pacific tropical wave as well. We could see we could see some systems going west in the fall and some systems recurving back toward the Baja here and into western Mexico. And that could increase the flood risk for western Mexico and also increase the monsoon season in the desert southwest. But that could really start to give you moisture in places like Oklahoma and Texas and areas down along the Gulf Coast with that recurvature in the fall season. So again, this is the latest forecast that I do have for you. It's very detailed.

[00:18:21]Thank you all for sticking with me and watching. Make sure to like this video.

[00:18:24]Give it a thumbs up. Share this video with friends, family, and on social media. And also subscribe to the YouTube channel. It's free to subscribe. Doesn't cost a penny, a nickel, a dime, $5. It's literally free. And you get the latest daily weather breakdowns across the United States, southern Canada, and the tropics for tropical weather season.

[00:18:41]Thanks for watching everyone, and I will see you all in the next video.