A cold front moves through later today increasing our severe weather risk.

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-09

[00:00:15]Good Tuesday morning to you. I'm meteorologist Lauren Bosuk with a look at your First Alert weather update. We do have a first alert weather day in store for you today because well, strong to severe thunderstorms are going to be a possibility moving into the evening hours tonight. We're talking about dinnertime starting to see a couple of thunderstorms flaring up in the metroplex potential and then as we move into the evening hours and potentially even into the overnight and things dissipating in the wee hours of the morning. Now the thing is is we have a conditional threat today and a capping inversion. So, this could be a very strong event. We could see large hail, damaging winds, even a tornado or two, but it could also not turn into anything if we don't break that capping inversion. So, that's why we want to make sure you're staying prepared moving into the day today because we do have that potential for severe weather, but again, it's not a guarantee and it's not even a guarantee that some of us will even see rainfall. I want to show you what's going to happen, the environmental setups, and then I'll get into what the forecast looks like as we move through the rest of your Tuesday and Cinco de Mayo in case you have any plans. Also, as we move into the day tomorrow, another risk for severe weather will be back into the forecast.

[00:01:29]And as we move into Mother's Day weekend, another shot of rainfall. I'll dive into all of those details right here, right now. Right now, I'm going to take you to our radar data and take you to a view of the infrared satellite imagery. And basically what this will show us is the cloud tops in the atmosphere. As I zoom out, you can actually see the movement of the clouds and it's moving up and around a ridge of high pressure. Where's the high pressure? Well, here's the high pressure. It's into Mexico. And you can see the Pacific moisture moving up and around this ridge of high pressure. And this is in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That's why you're seeing the cloud cover here across North Texas in the higher atmosphere. So they're high clouds in the sky. They're not those low billowing cumulo nimbus or cumulus clouds. We're seeing those higher elevation clouds due to all that Pacific moisture being wrapped up and around that ridge of high pressure. That's going to play a factor in today's forecast because because we have a area where severe weather could take place and that's to the north of the ridge. So the ridge is not impacting us in the good way. Seeing the warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions. We could see the chance for severe weather as we move into the evening hours tonight. Let's talk about the different environmental factors that are going to play a key role in today's forecast.

[00:02:56]Well, let's start with our temperatures.

[00:02:59]The temperatures, you can clearly see there's a sharp contrast uh between areas into Oklahoma, stretching into Missouri versus Arkansas and Texas, the orange versus the green shades. What that is is a visual temperature contrast. And if we sample a couple locations such as Witchah, Kansas, we're at 51°. Let's do Amarillo, we're at 54 and St. Louis at 51. The interesting news is is that's the cooler air that's actually headed into our direction because DFW ahead of this cold frontal system, we're at 73°. Over towards Little Rock, we're at 65 and Nashville, Tennessee around 66°. See how it's much warmer ahead of this frontal system than behind it? Let's go ahead and draw the line of where the frontal system actually is at the current moment. We can actually see where it lies. It stretches from the bootill of Missouri in that general vicinity. There's that low pressure system. That's why all the lightning strikes are around it. That's where we have that circulation taking place. And then here's that frontal system. It even drapes into uh southeastern New Mexico. And here's that front. So, it stretches right in between Missouri, Oklahoma, and the panhandle of Texas. And again, it's headed to the south. And this is what's going to be impacting us today. Now, let's talk about something a little bit different.

[00:04:30]Now, we're talking about a Dupoint temperature change. And you might be wondering, well, why are we looking at the Dupoint temperatures? Because this is also going to play a key factor. This is what we call a dry line setup. A dry line is the separation between air masses, between the more moist conditions and the more dry conditions.

[00:04:49]You can clearly see where this dry line is set up across Texas and portions of Oklahoma. This is another key factor that's going to play a role into today's forecast. Again, a dry line will initiate as it continues to move off to the east throughout the day some thunderstorms if we break a capping inversion. That's when we could see really large hail, damaging winds, and even the potential for some rotation.

[00:05:16]But we have that and a frontal system colliding into each other and that's going to make a triple point. Right now, the triple point looks like it's into places like Oklahoma City. It'll continue to move to the south and to the east as we head throughout the rest of the day today. And when it does do that, that triple point's going to give us that natural rotation with height. And this area in particular is where we could see some of the strongest activity into the evening hours tonight as the system moves to the south and to the east. In fact, I want to show you where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the risk for severe weather today. Notice it's ahead of that frontal system and it's ahead of the dry line and where the bigger activity is going to be expected is actually into the yellow shaded area where the triple point is headed. That's where we could see the potential of spin with height into these spots in particular. Again, we're looking at all modes of severe weather possible. But let's talk about our area. So, North Texas in the yellow shaded area. It's going to include places like the airport over to Dallas County, moving off to the east and northeast into Paris, into places like Greenville, Canton, into Leonard. If you're in those spots in particular, that's where we have the chance for some stronger thunderstorms to develop and more scattered potential. Now, a significant tornado threat is also in the forecast today. That means if we do see a strong cell flare up that has a rotating updraft and produce a tornado, it could be a stronger longer track tornado. If you're in Sulfur Springs along the I30 corridor, moving up to the north a little bit further into Paris, Cooper, Clarksville, Commerce, in those spots in particular, please keep your eye to the sky moving into the day today. That's where we have that potential for tornatic development. In addition to this, we also have the potential for significant hail. But this time, not only our eastern counties, it also will stretch into Dallas, Worth, stretching down to the south into Eatley, Inis, Clebburn, moving up to the north as well into Frisco, also McKini, Greenville. If you live into any of these spots, large hail upwards of 2 ines in diameter, potentially even larger is going to be in the forecast and a potential moving into the day today. Wind is also going to be a threat here across North Texas. again, 60 mph, potentially even stronger, but again, significant wind threat not necessarily in the forecast, which means category 1 hurricane strength or stronger winds. Uh even though it's still going to be a possibility if any of those strong thunderstorms do flare up moving into the day today. As we take a look for those who just joined us, thank you so much for joining us here on our live stream. Not seeing any activity flaring up on the radar. That leads me to the graphics. Let's talk about the forecast moving into the day today because we do have that potential for some strong thunderstorms flaring up. Damaging winds, hail, even tornadic development will be a possibility later on this evening and into the day tomorrow. Like I was just talking about, level two out of five threat means scattered potential of severe thunderstorm development is going to be likely anywhere shaded in yellow. Even though we may not see anything, again, it's all based off of a capping inversion. And if we break the cap, then that's when this threat really will take place. But if we don't, then we may not see anything across all of North Texas. Again, that's why we want to warn you, keep your eye to the sky moving into the day today because we could see some really strong weather or we may not see anything at all. But if we do, it could pack a punch, especially with that significant tornado threat for northeastern counties and significant hail threat. two inches in diameter, potentially even larger including the metroplex down to the south of the metroplex into central Texas and our eastern counties. Again, we're talking 2 in in diameter, potentially even larger for those areas. That means we could see egg sized hail. So, unfortunately, not a better thing for me to reference other than a hen egg. That's the egg you eat in the morning. Um, but that's what the National Weather Service chose to compare these large hailstones to. So, that's what we have to go with.

[00:09:29]Potential for some large hail moving into the evening hours tonight. Let's talk about the forecast model. This is just one out of the several of the shorter range forecast models we're keeping an eye out for, but I do think the HR, which is this model in particular, has the best grip on what may happen moving into later on today.

[00:09:46]And in fact, it just updated. So you can tell even if you were watching in the past hour that this is a little different than what I showed you earlier this morning. That's why this forecast is so incredibly difficult to convey and to keep an eye out for. That's why we are looking at all the different atmospheric development that could take place. And this is why you need to continue to keep your eye to the sky because now it looks a little bit more dynamic than what it did earlier this morning. starting to pop up some strong thunderstorm development into your dinnertime hours. So, unfortunately, your Cinco deio plans might be interrupted by storms moving into later on into dinner time tonight. Just be mindful of that. Have a plan. Maybe you want to bring the tacos home after work.

[00:10:32]Um, but just make sure you have a plan later on tonight. Again, this may change moving into the evening hours. Still seeing some strong thunderstorms possible into the evening tonight through the overnight into the early morning hours likely to clear everything up because we lose the daytime heating which is an ingredient that helps produce the strong thunderstorms. So once we lose that daytime heating we see the darkness take place. Cooling usually takes place which leads to not as strong thunderstorms which is good news into the overnight through tomorrow morning.

[00:11:05]Maybe a couple sprinkles as you wake up, but generally speaking, we start to clear things up into the wee hours of tomorrow. But again, hail is going to be one of the biggest risks as we move into the day today. We're talking about quarter size, which is an inch in diameter, potentially even larger hail, and a significant risk, which is a hinnag. It's two inches in diameter.

[00:11:27]When we talk about bigger than that, it gets rare, but the potential is there.

[00:11:32]Again, we could see tennis ball size tail up to baseball, even softball in some spots. Um, that's of course we hope we don't get that and the potential that we won't get that is there, but the potential that we may get that is still there, too. Here's a look at the updraft speed just showing you how strong the storms can get. Again, based on the updraft of the storm, which is the vertical profile of a supercell, of a cloud, if you look at a cloud from a distance, and you can see it moving all the way up and it has a little bit of that anvil, that'll show you how large that updraft is. And if the updraft is significant, it's very large, then it has very high wind speeds. And when it has high wind speeds, it produces larger hail in the updraft, especially if it's tilted. So 81 miles per hour could give you baseball-sized hail. For quarter sized hail, it's around 40 mileph winds.

[00:12:29]That's a big difference. Just be aware that some big updrafts will be possible today because of that dry line and because of the frontal system. That'll all give us the lift that we need to support for some really big updrafts.

[00:12:42]And that's why we're looking at a hail, a large hail as the potential and one of the main concerns today. Severe threat moving into the day tomorrow, level two out of five. Uh really to the east of the I35 corridor is a level one to two out of five, but it's generally speaking, I think, going to be for central Texas and into East Texas where the biggest potential of severe weather will be likely tomorrow. However, you need to keep your eye to the sky if you're anywhere to the east of the I35 and to the south of the I30 corridors moving into your Wednesday. Rainfall accumulation not going to be too significant here across the metroplex.

[00:13:21]However, if we do see just one individualized cell just kind of hang out for several hours, we could see more rain potential. But as of now, forecast models only showing about a tenth of an inch in DFW. It's really into central and eastern Texas where the heaviest accumulation will be likely today and into the day tomorrow. However, rain will still be back into the forecast moving into Mother's Day weekend today.

[00:13:49]Tomorrow, about a 20% chance for some storms here across the metroplex, as we move into Thursday, excuse me, Friday and Saturday, likely to see conditions clear. And then Sunday, that's when another uptick in precipitation will be likely. Will it be a wash out? Not likely. But hey, may put a damper on some of your outdoor festivities for Mother's Day. If you have any of those things planned, uh just make sure your mom knows to bring an umbrella if you're headed to church or brunch. Then you might want to save the picnic for maybe Friday or Saturday if you have any outdoor plans. Let's talk about the drought monitor.

[00:14:25]Hopefully, we get some rain into East Texas. That's where that red shaded area is. That's an extreme drought where we desperately need rainfall. Abnormally dry conditions are present into those spots. But we're looking good rain bucket-wise into Dallas Fort Worth and to the west of the I35 corridor. Only some spots seeing abnormally dry conditions there. So hopefully we get some more rain within the next couple of days for the far eastern counties. Let's take you out to East Fort Worth. We're seeing a couple of cumulus clouds in the sky, but most of this cloud cover is the higher clouds. And that's what I was detailing a little bit earlier, the Pacific moisture wrapping up and around that high pressure system. And you could see that in the higher clouds in the sky. The lower clouds, you could see a little bit of wind shear taking place.

[00:15:09]And we're seeing some cumulus clouds. 73 degrees, winds out from the south around 14 miles per hour. Denton 73, winds from the south around 9 miles hour. And taking a look outside of Dallas, the Big D, 74, winds from the south, 10 mph.

[00:15:24]Time lapse this morning. Uh cloud covers present, gusty winds are present, and that's going to stay in the forecast pretty much through the rest of the day today. 73°. It will stay a little bit breezy. We'll see temperatures climb into the 80s by lunchtime. High temperature today topping out right around 90, 91 around that 4 to 5:00 p.m.

[00:15:43]hour. And then look at this. The wind shifts around 6 p.m. That's when that frontal system swings through.

[00:15:48]Temperatures will go from the low 90s into the upper 70s in a matter of a couple of hours. So, just gear up for that. First alert weather day today. We cool things down tomorrow. High temperature only getting to 77°.

[00:16:03]Cool start to your Thursday morning at 55 and 72. Then nice pleasant conditions to through the end of the week into the start of the weekend. But Mother's Day, another shot for some rain and it will be a little sticky and muggy. 90 degrees the forecast high. I will be sure to keep you up to date with all the latest forecast information and data that comes in and of course if any thunderstorm, severe weather starts to pop up later on today. I will be sure to let you know what's happening. Keep it here on our live stream and make sure you tune in at CBS News Texas. We will be keeping you up to date with all the latest news and weather that pops up and all the information that comes in. Thank you so much for joining us here on our First Alert weather day. Have a great Cinco de Mayo and keep it here. We'll see you later.

[00:17:21]Heat. Heat. N.

[00:17:27]Heat. Heat. N.

[00:17:47]Hey, hey, hey.

[00:18:08]Hey, hey, hey.

[00:18:44]Ah, Heat.

[00:19:10]Heat.

[00:19:35]It is life or death as the jury will begin deliberations today in sentencing for Tanner her. her pleaded guilty to the kidnapping and killing of seven-year-old Athena Strand