Is the MicrosStrategy chart pointing to a disaster in the crypto market?

[00:00:01]So, it's been a big day in the crypto market. A little bit of fear has started to creep back in.

[00:00:07]I'm going to talk you through three charts I think highlight why Bitcoin could be heading much, much lower. And if you guys have followed me for a while, you'll know that my price target, my eventual price target for BTC is $3,000.

[00:00:22]If you're new to the channel, that will sound completely bonkers, but bear with me and I will talk you through why the charts are pointing to an absolute disaster in the cryptocurrency market.

[00:00:34]Remember, none of this is financial advice. I'm a part-time trader. I'm somebody who is an amateur. I've spent 10 years honing my craft and I've made some really, really good calls, but you should never make investment decisions off the back of somebody that you just bump into on YouTube. So, please do your own research before you act on anything that I might cover in my videos.

[00:00:54]So, let's take a look at MicroStrategy.

[00:00:57]There's been a huge amount of noise in the market today about MicroStrategy.

[00:01:02]And if [snorts] you follow me over on X, you know guys that I picked the absolute pico top on MicroStrategy. So, um all the way back here in November of 2024, I called almost to the day, I said this was the top and that this was all one massive clearance thrust where for 20 years we had been bouncing off of this trend line.

[00:01:34]And you guys, if you followed me for a while, you know that I talk quite often about this kind of clearance thrust pattern where you get multiple bounces along a trend line and the final bounce ends up being what we call a clearance thrust, a huge push to the upside before price collapses back to the trend line, and then eventually more often [snorts] than not heads beneath the trend line and collapses much much lower. And this blue squiggle will confuse a lot of people because if you think the red squiggle is unrealistic and that there's no way that we could head down to $20, I'm sorry to tell you, but I actually think eventually this is going to go much lower than $20. And if you think that's completely ludicrous, you only have to look back 25 years, 26 years to the peak of the dot-com bubble where MicroS MicroStrategy hit 325 335 dollars before collapsing 99.9% over the coming 2 years into 2002.

[00:02:42]So, nothing is impossible when it comes to some of these assets and I think the amount of leverage that MicroStrategy has taken on in purchasing Bitcoin uh hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin on the open market in recent years, I think it's going to come back to bite Michael Saylor on the bum, but most importantly, I think it's going to bite uh cryptocurrency investors on the bum because all of this leverage, in my view, will be completely wiped out. The market will not remain irrational on MicroStrategy and uh some of the other assets that have been issued by the MicroStrategy team in recent years, STRC for example. I think all of that gets completely and utterly destroyed and in the process, Bitcoin gets caught up. And uh one of the reasons from a technical perspective that I think um strategy is heading much lower from here is really simple, right? What is What is a bearish market? It is a series of lower lows and lower highs. And you can see that we've put in three lower highs now, and this will be another lower low shortly in my view. It looks like this area here has been flipped into resistance again, having held as resistance through much of 2024. We finally got the breakthrough, but price has failed to hold above this level here about $180, and I said a few weeks ago that I believed we were going to come back down and retest these lows here before eventually price rolls over, and I think that's what we're going to see.

[00:04:30]Um to me, the price action on this does not look good at all.

[00:04:35]>> [snorts] >> And I expect MicroStrategy is going to deliver a huge amount of pain to people.

[00:04:42]So, you've got this clearance thrust, you've got this parabolic run-up here where price went from 13 to $500 in literally the space of 2 years, and I think late investors, people who have kidded themselves into thinking this was uh the product of an absolute genius investor, are going to pay a heavy heavy price.

[00:05:05]And eventually, as I say, uh once this level breaks here, I think eventually we come down into this $20 region. We retest this long-standing trendline that dates all the way back to 2003.

[00:05:21]And when that gives way, what would be a natural place for us to bottom? Because I do believe that is going to give way.

[00:05:28]And I think I'm looking at the chart.

[00:05:35]The area that I really like for a bottom is down here at these lows at about $3.

[00:05:43]Um and I know people constantly stop by to tell me how bonkers I am.

[00:05:48]People also ask me how strategy might recover if we ever had that low. Well, look, first things first, you know, we had a 99.9% collapse from 2000 to 2002. And yes, it took, you know, 20 plus years for price to reach new highs, but eventually it did. So, markets can do funny things. But, it's also possible that MicroStrategy never reaches another high if we get the kind of collapse that I'm talking about, and potentially this asset heads to zero over the long run.

[00:06:20]I don't know whether that's going to happen, but all I know is that at the moment the chart is pointing to lower prices.

[00:06:26]And as somebody who called the pico top on the market back here in late 2024, I've got a pretty good track record on this asset. So, when people mock me, um you know, and say that my price targets are ridiculous, well, look, I've not done so bad so far, have I? We're down 80% from the top of the market.

[00:06:48]And if you were somebody who was bullish up here, frankly, you've gotten utterly destroyed. And not only have you been destroyed, you've been destroyed at a time when the S&P has been pumping to new highs, the Nasdaq is at new highs.

[00:07:00]Uh there have been some incredible gains to be had in the market over the last couple of years, including actually in the commodity sector, in gold and silver, which is a market that I was playing quite heavily last year. So, um yeah, you might think my targets are crazy, but so far, so good on my strategy call.

[00:07:18]The second chart that I wanted to talk you guys through that I think points to much, much lower prices, again, it's another one that I called back at the very top in 2025.

[00:07:29]You can see that up here I drew out this blue squiggle, and this is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC. So, this is the forerunner in the ETF space. This is the chart that I've been talking about I don't know, probably for about 18 months, possibly closer to 2 years. And all the time that we spent up here, uh [snorts] I kept saying that this was likely to be some sort of distributive top before price heads much lower. And in late 2025, I drew out this blue squiggle with my ultimate target being back down here at about 2.74.

[00:08:02]Bearing in mind that we uh were all the way up at close to 100, you know, people thought again, people thought I was utterly utterly crazy. But there's a few things on this chart that should be worrying if you are a Bitcoin investor.

[00:08:16]The first is that we seem to be trend trading in this giant rising wedge, which again is a bearish pattern. And you can see that we had this sort of mini rising wedge inside the macro rising wedge. And that broke down, and it's led to serious downside over the last sort of year or year to 18 months. Um and you can see that if we extrapolate from this small wedge to the macro wedge, this doesn't look good. This looks like a market that wants to eventually roll over on a high enough time frame. And you can see just how clean the macro wedge is because we've tapped the upper boundary of this wedge multiple times. And look how clean the lower boundary of this wedge is. And I say this quite often, when you've got a really clean uptrend like this, this trend line will always act as a magnet. When you've got one, two, three super clean touches, in my mind, I'm always looking for price to revert back to that trend line.

[00:09:30]Um and typically, what happens on the fourth or fifth fifth tap of a trend line that is holding price up like this, typically it breaks. And if it does break, I don't see any meaningful support until we at the very least take out these lows, but potentially, I could even see price coming way back into this level here at 149.

[00:09:56]>> [snorts] >> And so, what does that indicate for me? I mean, this To me, this just looks like a massive trend shift, right?

[00:10:04]Because pre-2017, all Bitcoin did was go up in a straight line. Of course, it had major major pullbacks, but the moves to the upside were absolutely enormous. And since then, what's happened? The gains have flattened out, really. So, we topped out here in 2017 about 40, and then we made a nominal new high up to the mid-50s in 2021, and then we managed to creep up into the 80s in 2025, but it there's no doubt that this is a case of diminishing returns. The asset is flattening out, and ultimately, I think the product of Bitcoin flattening out, or GBTC in this case flattening out, the end product of that ultimately is a break of the uptrend and some mean reversion back to much lower prices. So, I am not bullish on GBTC in the slightest. I think this looks like an absolutely disastrous chart, and it's one that nobody ever touches on on X. Nobody ever posts about GBTC, but I think this is some of the cleanest price action I've seen in the crypto space, and to me, this macro rising wedge coupled with a breakdown from this mini rising wedge and the weakness that we see in price, again, just take a look these 2021 highs, you know, they we just cannot hold above them. And, you know, all of this in 2024 and 2025 looks like a massive deviation. It looks to me as though the failure for price to hold above these highs points to downside, points to um really significant shift in the overall trend on GBTC. So again, uh not a Bitcoin chart, but a Bitcoin derivative much in the same way that MicroStrategy is arguably just derivative at the moment. Um and what about Bitcoin itself? Well, the most compelling chart that I can find at the moment is this one because I talk about uptrends acting as a magnet for price and you can see here 1 2 3 4 five taps of this uptrend that dates all the way back to 2017. So we're talking about nearly 10 years, nearly a decade of price action where every time Bitcoin has come and of course we we got this brief kind of dip underneath during the COVID liquidation, but every time price has tapped this trend line on a high enough time frame, price has bounced.

[00:12:43]And over time, these moves to the upside have got a bit weaker. They've taken longer to play out. Um but again, a bit like I pointed to with strategy where you get this kind of bouncing along a trend line, big move up and eventually it gives way.

[00:12:59]I think we're going to see something similar on Bitcoin.

[00:13:03]There is no way in my mind that this trend line survives another tap.

[00:13:08]And it looks like it's already giving way.

[00:13:13]So here we are at the sixth time of asking of this trend line. Bulls praying that we bounce. To me, it looks like we've already broken down. And it looks like we've broken down on the three-day that we've back tested it as resistance. and this is a really, really ominous sign if you're a Bitcoin bull because I am seeing the opportunity for lower prices firstly into this region here and you can see this is the first major support up at about $48,000 uh where price has been held as resistance a couple of times and then support back in 2024. So, my first target would be at $48,000.

[00:14:01]I don't think that's going to hold for very long and we may get a bounce, but eventually I think we're going to break underneath and when we do, any back test of that $48,000 region is a great shorting opportunity for me and then the next major zone of support would be down here at about $30,000 and just look how massive this zone is because every time price has engaged with this $30,000 region, we've had a big reaction either as support or as on multiple occasions in 2022 and 2023 as resistance. So, I expect that at some stage in the not too distant future, I think you know this year potentially potentially even much sooner, but definitely by the end of the year, I can see Bitcoin trading back down at about $30,000.

[00:14:56]Um and I will not talk you through my bigger picture forecast for Bitcoin right now. If you're new to the channel, then I've posted lots of videos where I cover the fact that I do expect Bitcoin to head back under $10,000 potentially as low as $3,000 in 2027 stroke 2028. Um if you're new to the channel, you will think I'm crazy for even beginning to think that, but I suppose my point here is a really simple one that even if you disagree with my end targets, it's really hard to paint a case for Bitcoin that is bullish when this 9-year uptrend is coming to an end when there's very little support until we hit $48,000.

[00:15:38]Um and even then, it's not huge support here. The really big one for Bitcoin will be down at $30,000, which is over 50% downside from where we are today.

[00:15:51]And if we get there, I think a lot of balls will be incredibly frustrated, but bigger picture, just look at how much downside is left for MicroStrategy if I'm right about the future of this asset. And what does that tell us? If MicroStrategy is coming under pressure, what does that tell us about the health of the cryptocurrency market? So guys, I'm sorry. I know people, you know, the balls are popular in the world of cryptocurrency. The guys that sell you the hope and are consistently wrong seem to be much more popular than the ones of us who are right, but sadly have to tell you that it's going much lower.

[00:16:28]Um I'm not going to lie to you. This doesn't look great.

[00:16:32]And uh I myself will not be touching crypto with a bargepole for at least the next 12 months, potentially even a bit longer.

[00:16:41]Hope some of that has been useful. If uh you have found it entertaining, informative, then please do hit the subscribe button uh and drop me a comment. Would love to know what you make of some of these charts.