How is Decision-Making Happening in Iran?

追加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Trump's uh big narrative and this has been pushed uh initially it was being pushed to Axios and Barack Ravid and journalists that have sort of emerged as the conveyor belts for sort of the official leaks from the White House or from the Israelis. But it's also been picked up by the broader Western media that part of the reason that there hasn't been a deal is that the Iranian leadership is in chaos. You know, Trump is constantly saying they don't know who's in charge and they can't figure it out and they're a mess. And, you know, Iranian officials I talked to say, "Well, look at your own side. I mean, look at look at Trump. It's out in the open. He tells the world that JD Vance, his vice president, is on an airplane, you know, or that Steve Whitoff and Jared Kushner are there." Or one day he's saying he's going to destroy Iranian civilization and the next day he's saying, "Oh, we might make a deal."

[00:00:49]You know, that you're actually the ones in chaos. That's what I've heard expressed by Iranian officials. But as a geopolitical analyst, I want to ask you and you're based in Tehran. Um, what is your sense about how the decision-making is happening and what the bottom line is going to look like for any deal going forward that would be acceptable to the various echelons of the power structure in Iran?

[00:01:14]Well, I would say that you know uh portraying or framing this uh as a fracture in Iran could be somehow misreading or misinforming the public about what is taking place in Iran. You cannot you know misinterpret the uh uh deliberations on let's say national security or foreign policy related issues here in Thran as you know division or fracture you know decisions of this magnitude related to the national security foreign policy negotiations with the United States nuclear issue cannot be made unilaterally by one individual or even by one faction or solely by the cabinet or part of the government or one institution and uh we know that you know even if there's a decision there is no guarantee for the implementation so that's why there is a clear you know framework for that you know uh those types of decisions to be made and that is the supreme national security council which is composed of the president heads of the uh government branches uh members from the cabinet uh institutions including the security and military related institutions and also some politicians and any decision is being discussed in that council and when they make a decision the leader endorses that decision. So it is uh in a process that those decisions are made and uh the the also including the negotiations with the United States which has been normally considered as a sensitive issue are also being discussed there and they decide and normally the leader you know respects the idea and the decision of the council and uh But we are seeing the contradiction from the American side.

[00:03:16]They are insisting that there's fracture or division among Iranians. But in the meantime, they insist on continuing the discussions and negotiations with the same government that they try to say that they are divided or fractured. But then we can say that you know comparing to uh previous years or back in before you know 2015 nuclear negotiations the level of unity or coordination today in the country is much more than that time that the a nuclear deal was made. And I think in terms of negotiations and even the agenda there is a shared I would say consensus and uh perspective among different officials from the cabinet to government and others that uh how they need to approach that issue and what needs to be discussed and what they expect from the process and uh but for the United States even during the negotiations Iranian I think delegation which was a high level one. This time they had enough authority because they had clear agenda in mind that what they needed to achieve. They went to Islamabad and before Islamabad they were also in the negotiations but even before the war when the US negotiating delegation were coming to like Geneva or Oman uh they were making a decision they were agreeing on one thing but when they were back to Washington everything ch would change and in Islamabad they also were discussing and everybody was expecting a kind of understanding to be announced in Islam. some of back then I remember it but all of a sudden following some phone calls with Washington every everything was downturn and you know ch the situation changed and they were not able to achieve any understanding or agreement on the framework of the uh following discussions and uh I think this is not uh reflecting the reality that to say that there is a fracture in Iran I think there is a clear uh the I would say framework for those decisions and one point that the United States even assassinated the Iranian leader high ranking commanders but we're seeing that no change is being uh made in the country in the case that the system here outlasts the individuals even even those who are sitting at the top of the hierarchy I'm not saying that those losses are not important they are very significant losses for the for any country. But the point is that even despite those losses, we are seeing that the system works. It is fighting back against the United States in a very short time just in 40 days uh that a war has started, you know, and there has been a ceasefire. They are able to make a decision to go to negotiations with the United States. They know what they have in the agenda to discuss and they know what the red lines are. And I would say that even the leader was you know uh aware of what was going on and he was also like it was in the past that he the leader endorsed the decisions by the Supreme National Security Council yet that is uh the case as we speak and I think from your perspective where I'm talking to you I I have the feeling and I'm seeing and I'm observing that the amount of the unity comparing even to previous years is much higher than what is being described in the United States and but for Iran is somehow a similar problem that in the United States there are different factions those who are you know uh aspiring to see a prolong war against Iran, those who oppose war, those who are you know having different ideas or views on what can uh be pursued or what can take place and this is creat cing a an uncertainty which has been clouding the discussions and this has made it difficult to rely on such a process to expect something meaningful at the end of the day but uh what I'm trying to say is that from Iran's perspective u inside Iran that fracture which is being described in the United States is not uh existent but uh from Uranian side toward the United States the way they look at the US. It seems that you know the United States uh that fracture exists in the United States. Trump you know is uh somehow around him he has different people with different ideas. In addition to that he is also being manipulated by Israel and as Israel you know dragged the United States to the war as they have been saying that this was Netanyahu's war.

[00:08:15]Iranian officials also have been criticizing this as Israel first you know policy rather than America first.

[00:08:23]So this indicates that also the influence coming from outside the United States has also been significant. This is not just something that is said by uranian officials only but even among elites in the United States these days we are hearing such let's say argument and this is impacting the progress and absent those I think uh impact and maybe we would have witnessed a kind of agreement between the two sides and yet this goes on and uh by let's say trying to portray in the media in a way that Iran infrastructure. This does not change the reality. But at the end I would say that you know there are new realities on the ground uh which you know Iran does not feel that it has lost the war. Iran is behaving in these negotiations as it has emerged victorious. So that's why we are yet seeing that there are no let's say substantial changes in in in Iranian negotiating positions and uh the system yet continues and now there is a new perception here in the country not among the elites but among the the public even those who protested against the government you know prior to the aggression they thought maybe some thought that if the US attacks or comes to the country and assassinates some officials it would be helping them in order to have a prosperous you know government or system in the country.

[00:09:52]What they saw was that you know schools were targeted like in Mino hospitals civilian infrastructure.

[00:10:00]Trump threatened of a death of a civilization. He has been talking about death and destruction openly and this change you know the mindset among some who thought that US is coming to help them but they saw that US was coming to kill them not to help them and this is qualitatively changing the situation in here and I think um this is also they wanted to have a regime change but what they did is that they somehow moved in a positive direction and they consolid validated the uh foundations of s such political establishment here in the country and maybe they have uh I'm not sure they have been able to uh somehow perceive that that was a big mistake to do so but normally at a round at a time of uh foreign military intervention we are seeing a rally around the flag impact in the country they thought because of maybe economic hardship this time this could have been somehow different but uh Again those who uh were present in the streets to protest against the government before the war uh some of them came to the streets again this time but this time to support that political establishment and to condemn that foreign aggression.

[00:11:20]>> Abasani, senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies want to thank you very much for taking the time to be with us live from Tehran.

[00:11:28]Abasani, thank you so much.

[00:11:32]Uh thank you for having me on Jeremy. It was a pleasure to be with you.

[00:11:36]>> All right. Stay safe Abas. Thank you. Um that was Abasani joining us from uh Techron.