An Extremely Dangerous Storm Is About To Strike...

[00:00:00]A widespread severe weather outbreak is about to impact millions of people today and a newly formed tropical storm is now in the Gulf. A powerful upper level trough will dive into the eastern half of the country, triggering multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

[00:00:20]And while this storm will push off the east coast tomorrow, attention will remain on tropical storm Bertha.

[00:00:26]Although the storm is expected to remain relatively weak, it will still bring the threat of flash flooding and storm surge along the Gulf Coast. The next 48 hours of weather will be very intense. So, let's get right into the forecast. And we are going to start with talking about our severe weather potential for the next few days as a widespread severe weather outbreak is on the table for today across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast where we have an enhanced risk of severe weather in place. This is a level three out of five risk which does include Philadelphia, Washington DC, almost all of Pennsylvania, West Virginia back into northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Large level two risk of severe weather for those in Nashville, Raleigh, Norfolk and Richmond. New York City is also included in that. And then we have a marginal threat of severe weather for Memphis, Charlotte, and also western New England where the big concern for today will be the risk of damaging winds. We have a 45% chance within a 25 mile radius of damaging winds if you live in the pink. 30% chance in the red, 15% chance in the yellow, and 5% chance in the brown. So, generally speaking, the brighter your color is here, the worse it's going to be. So, if you live in the pink, you need to be ready because there will be widespread thunderstorms today, and there could be several rounds of thunderstorms leading to 60 to 70 mph winds. There will be a risk of some pocket change size hail today, but I do not think this is the main concern by any means. There will also be a risk of a few tornadoes. There should be a pretty elevated tornado risk, especially across Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia. I personally think there will be a risk of an isolated EF2 plus tornado, but that is going to come down to storm mode, and we'll talk more about that in a moment. Elsewhere though, a few tornadoes will be on the table.

[00:02:04]Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City, you guys are also in that elevated tornado risk and a much more isolated tornado risk in the green. So, Cleveland, Buffalo, North Folk, Richmond, and back up into western New England have ways to receive alerts today. That is really important. and have a tornado action plan ready to go.

[00:02:19]We do plan on being live later today, so make sure you are subscribed to the channel and click the bell icon so you're notified for when we do go live.

[00:02:26]And then Wednesday, the risk of severe weather will push to the east coast where we have a slight risk in Richmond, Virginia Beach, and also near Raleigh.

[00:02:33]And then a marginal threat of severe weather from Maine back into South Carolina where the big concern right now is damaging wind gusts which will be isolated to widely scattered. No hail risk outlined as of right now. And then our tornado risk is low, but there may be an isolated tornado or two. I think the highest risk will be near Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Elsewhere, very low tornado risk. Just make sure that you're staying weather aware. Now, one thing I do want to mention before talking about the timing of severe weather today is that we are going to have very high precipitable water today. And you might be wondering why in the world am I even talking about this? Well, the reason why is because when you get precipitable water values as high as two or even higher than that, that can lead to rain wrap tornadoes very, very easily. So, if we do end up having tornadoes today, which I think we'll at least have a few, they are almost undoubtedly going to be rain wrap. So, this is not the kind of day that you want to be going to look outside and try to see if you can grab a photo or video of a tornado because you want to upload a Tik Tok video and hopefully make four pennies off that.

[00:03:29]Instead, what you want to be doing is taking shelter because it will be a dangerous day if we end up getting any sort of tornadoes. The other thing to note is that our significant tornado parameter values are also going to be elevated at times. We could have an isolated strong tornado today if storm mode cooperates. But I do think at some point today these storms are going to go upscale very quickly. But initially between I would say 11 central, 11:00 a.m. central all the way through about 5. There will be a risk of a few discrete supercells in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia. And that tornado risk will try to increase as well during the mid to late afternoon right along the immediate east coast.

[00:04:04]Now, let's talk more about the timing of severe weather for today and beginning with what is happening this morning. We are not anticipating a whole lot of severe weather this morning. We could have a couple of isolated 60 mph windstorms, maybe up to quarter to half dollar sized hail, but our severe weather threat will really start to increase around and just after lunchtime. And by noon is when I think we're going to start to see some big-time severe weather activity as we will start to see these clusters of thunderstorms developing. However, as I mentioned before, we could get an isolated discreet or semi-discreet supercell. HR has one of those developing near Cincinnati. And if we were to see anything like this, there would be a slightly better chance of a tornado developing around 1:00. Notice how all of these storms are trying to cluster together. But there could again be one or two little supercells out in front of that that do try to produce the risk of a tornado. Regardless of that happening, we will have damaging wind gusts up and down this entire cluster of thunderstorms. And wherever we have a more organized segment of wind in terms of like the line will have a slightly better chance of producing QLCS tornadoes, which are tornadoes embedded in a line of thunderstorms. Around 2:00, storms will continue to push across central Pennsylvania near St. Mary's and going towards State College. At 3:00, storms will continue to be very widespread, stretching from Syracuse, New York, back into West Virginia, Louisville, Evansville, and Cape Gerardo. So again, the peak severe weather window for many of you will actually be from like 12:00 until 4. And then by 4 to 5:00, just notice how many different lines of thunderstorms are going to be ongoing or clusters. We'll have one over here in western Kentucky, another one near Louisville, back through West Virginia, one stretching across Pennsylvania and New York, maybe even one up in upstate New York, and we could have another one developing right near Lake Erie. And then at 5:00, these storms will be approaching Washington DC, Allentown, Scranton. Might have an isolated discrete supercell near the Washington DC area this afternoon. I would say the odds of that aren't overly high, but it is on the table. At 6 to 7:00, storms will be pushing towards New York City. More storms moving towards Ron Oak, some even down there near Pikeville and also going towards the Nashville area. But I think overall the severe weather risk is going to get a lot lower by about, you know, maybe 8 9:00 tonight. I don't think there's going to be a whole lot after sunset.

[00:06:08]Most of the severe weather will be winding down and what's going to be left over will be predominantly just heavy rainfall, lightning, some gusty winds, and maybe some small hail. Otherwise, I think the severe weather risk is mostly done by then. And then for your Wednesday, we're not expecting much in the way of like a severe weather outbreak, per se, but I do think damaging wind gusts will be on the table. Isolated tornado risk as well since our significant tornado parameter values in this very small corridor east of Richmond could be as high as one, two, maybe even three. And so that might lead to an isolated tornado if a supercell can take advantage of this environment. Otherwise, isolated wind and maybe some localized flooding will be on the table. And guess what, guys?

[00:06:45]We officially have a tropical storm in the Gulf for the first time in it feels like forever. I say forever, the last time we had one was a month ago named Tropical Storm Arthur. Made landfall over there in Texas. But now we have a new tropical cyclone. This one's named Bertha. It's the second name storm of the season. And right now, this is a fairly weak tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds are around 40 mph. Got a lot of deep convection on the south side of this system. But if you look closely, the reason why this is such a weak tropical system is because the eye is basically fully exposed right now in the low levels. There is absolutely no deep convection on the north or west or even east side of this. It's all on the south side of the tropical cyclone. That is due to wind shear, but also dry air intrusion that is happening in the low levels. So, this is not a very intense storm system. Now, the only way that this could make a run at becoming a hurricane, which I think is highly unlikely, but if it were to, it would really have to stay far down to the south of Louisiana, which does not appear very likely right now. Looks like this tropical cyclone is going to meander its way up into New Orleans as we go into late Wednesday and Thursday, and should at least be a middle-grade tropical storm. So, here's the thinking in terms of where tropical storm Bertha is probably going to go. The cone of uncertainty is still fairly large right now. And in the event that this does end up going further south, it will likely be a stronger tropical storm, but overall, most models are not really going that way. Most models have this flirting with the Louisiana coastline as we go into late Tuesday and early Wednesday. And what this will probably be is like a middle-grade tropical storm. Maybe maximum sustained winds up to 50 m hour would be my guess in terms of the peak intensity. And then after it goes through southern Louisiana, it should continue to weaken as it moves towards the Houston area. The big concern with this will be the flooding rainfall. Storm surge though is also on the table. So over the next 48 hours, we are expecting Bertha to continue to just kind of spiral in the northern Gulf as we go into late tonight. There could be a low-end tornado risk near the Gulf Coast as we have some outer bands making their way towards Tallahassee. So do not rule out an isolated tornado if you're in the Florida panhandle or even southern Alabama. As we go into the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning, this will continue to make its way towards New Orleans. I really think the big concern here for the Gulf Coast will end up being the storm surge. There will be some gusty winds again, maybe an isolated tornado risk, but generally speaking, over the next 48 hours or so, the majority of the rainfall will be staying offshore. There will not be much that actually makes it inland. And the same thing is shown on the National Weather Service blend of models. Almost all of the heavy rainfall should stay mostly offshore. Only area that actually might pick up on some flooding rainfall would be near New Orleans. This is obviously contingent on there being any sort of track changes, but if it does end up staying on course for where we think it's going to go, most of the flooding rainfall again will not happen on shore. As a reminder, we are going to have a very busy day of severe weather today. So, make sure you are subscribed to the channel and also make sure to check out Max Alert. It's where I give you a phone call with my voice if you're under a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. It'll come in handy with today with how many warnings we're going to have across the Ohio Valley in the Northeast. So, definitely make sure to check this out at maxalert.net. And as always, thank you guys all again so much for watching today's forecast. We will be live later today, so make sure you are subscribed.

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