Will provides a disciplined synthesis of macro data and technicals that effectively filters market noise into a coherent valuation framework. It is a refreshing, data-driven antidote to the speculative hype often found in retail trading circles.
Install our extension to search inside any video instantly.
Market Up 15% From LOWS! Too Much, Too Fast?.. & AAPL, MA, V, BKNG, SPGI EarningsAdded:
Good evening traders and investors. Will back here with another one coming to you with a weekly market recap. Hopefully you guys had a very nice end to the week because I haven't seen you guys since Wednesday. So hopefully Thursday and Friday for you were all right in the markets and hopefully that you're off to a very nice start to the weekend as well. Now in terms of the market performance on Thursday and Friday, well, we closed the month of April out very strong. Two more consecutive green days on the S&P and two more consecutive green days on the NASDAQ. Now that being said, the month of April was very good.
Take a look at the QQQ's up here. 15.7% return in the month of April and on the S&P a very solid 10.51. However, we are somewhat extended from our weekly moving averages both on the SPY and the QQQs as you can see right there. And we are also slightly overbought in terms of the daily RSI on the Q's and the daily RSI on the SPY as well. So the question remains, have we gone too far too fast or is it still a good opportunity to buy the markets? meaning should be we should maybe we be waiting for a bit of a pullback here into some structure or should we just top blast the markets where they are and take our chances?
Well, of course, in today's video, we're going to try to make the most sense out of this price action and in the overall markets altogether. So, I have a few different components to this video.
Number one, we'll be recapping a few statistics that I find notable to our analysis today. We'll spend about 5 minutes on that and then we got to get into a bunch of earnings, guys. And I do apologize. Today's earnings releases, we'll be covering a whole bunch of boring quote unquote companies, right?
So, we'll be doing Apple, we'll be doing Mastercard, we'll be doing Visa, and we'll also do one that's not on this list. Booking.com and SPGI. Five companies that I have in my portfolio.
Now, I know I know just saying that you guys are going to you guys are going to say, "Where's SoFi? Where's SanDisk?
Where's Western Digital? Where's Reddit?
All these very fun growth companies."
Don't worry, I got you guys. We'll do them on Monday with Palunteer. And next week, we'll have a whole bunch of other growth companies to analyze. But for today, I want to spend some time for our viewers that are more inclined to possibly be looking at more valueoriented companies, companies with strong free cash flows, companies that are more mature, that have very strong moes. So that's why we'll be covering those five. Apple, Mastercard, Visa, Booking.com, and SPGI. All companies that I do have once again in my long-term portfolio. And although my long-term portfolio is like 60 70% growth, I do still have a lot of these very strong high mode companies with fantastic business models. So, we'll be doing a rundown of those today in their earnings. And on Monday, we'll do some of the fun ones that we missed. So, SanDisk, Reddit, probably, and then Palunteer, of course. After we're done the earnings presentations, we will get through our technical analysis portion of the video, the S&P, the Q's, and most of our minor indexes, minor sectors.
Take a look at the rotation in the markets. Is it healthy? Is it not? And how can that translate possibly into further expansion or possible contraction? After that, we'll take a look at our big tech list right here since most of all of them have reported earnings. So, now that we're through earnings, which of these companies are buys, which of these are holds, and which of these are possibly trims if you would be so inclined? And at the very end of the video, if we have time, because I don't know, I got five earnings to cover and a whole bunch of other stuff, right? If we have time, I'll spend some time here doing the biggest gainers and losers of the day on Friday. And if not, we'll have to do a little bit more of that uh over the course of next week. So, keep that in mind. That being said, guys, in the event you wanted to jump to a certain portion of the video, the timestamps are always linked down below. So, feel free to use them if you want. Now, let's get into the action, shall we? So, the S&P on Friday up.3. The Q's up almost 1%.
Semiconductors still being the strongest segment of the market overall. Taking a look at the heat map right here. It was not terrible. Big tech leading the way, but Nvidia Meta falling a bit short.
Financials a down day. Financials had a pretty good week last week, but ended the week down on a Friday. Healthcare still remains a bit of a mixed sector overall. Eli Liy and and Merc after their earnings contributed to some gains. However, healthcare still remains one of your weakest sectors at the market right now. And the bottom half of the market still being a little bit plagued by the lack of interest rate forecasts or interest rate cut forecasts for the year. and rising inflation as a result of the higher energy prices. So Friday was not the best day in terms of market breath overall. Thursday was indeed much better. If you take a look at here on the one day relative, you'll see that even better. Only tech, consumer cyclical, and communication services were higher. Everything else down on the one week though, it doesn't look as bad, right? So your market breath on a oneweek relative basis is actually quite good. Communication services, energy, and most of the market here green. Only basic materials falling behind. And after a very beautiful month of April, where do you stand? Well, most of your market segments obviously pushing higher. The only one still being left behind is indeed healthcare. Your largest market laggered at the current point in time. The market fear and greed index still sitting at a 67 which illustrates that it is a fairly greedy environment. Your market momentum expressed as the how much we are above the moving average is also quite high in the extreme greed territory. Stock price strength net new 52 week highs and lows on New York Stock Exchange. Not as high as during the February period, but definitely curling up nicely. Not all of the market has come back to all-time highs, but most of the market is close.
Stock price breadth also as measured by the Mlen volume summation index is in a greedy environment. Put to call ratio, this is now higher than our recent lows around April the 20th, which also coincides with when the price of oil actually bottomed around here. You can see on the 17th of April, you can see a slight correlation here uh between this bottom right here put to calls and now people buying a little bit more insurance as we're still not actually um having a conclusive end to the war in a permanent fashion and your VIX remains in a neutral environment. Well off the highs, but still a little bit sticky here close to the 1718 print. So market still in a bit of a greedy environment right now. Now, before we get into more technical analysis, guys, let's do part one of the video and we're just going to we're just going to summarize exactly what happened in terms of the macro to end last week and a few key statistics that I think we should be paying attention to in the current market environment. So, number one, we had some um macro releases on Thursday. It was a very big day for that. Number one, we got PCE. PCE came in at 3.5%. That was exactly in line with the estimates. But core, which strips out the volatile food and energy prices, and we know those have been very volatile because of the input costs from oil and the shortage of fertilizers, etc., came in at 3.2, which is above uh last month's 3%. So inflation definitely on the rise, but as we listen to Jerome Powell last week, it's going to be a question of this, right? So COVID gave us some big supply chain shocks. There was a big burst in inflation. This is the curve of inflation, right? And that's come down.
It was supposed to be a lot lower last year, but then we got the tariffs which led to another one-time increase in inflation. And now that inflation was working its way through the market, but now we got the war, right? So, it's just this rolling sequence of inflation events. At least they're all only one-time events. But even with this one, with the price of the barrel of oil, you're just not too sure whether it's going to last through April and May and June or when it's going to start to taper off. So, this this will be an ongoing situation to monitor. But of course, they will be one-time increases.
Else uh elsewhere, you did have the u uh GDP rate come in here at 2% versus the 2.3 expected. Some people might be disappointed by this. However, if you're asking the question, was it impacted by rising fuel costs and energy costs? The answer would indeed be yes. And it did drag down your personal consumption component of GDP. You guys know the formula for GDP is uh consumption, which is basically the consumers, right?
Consumption. And then you have um investment business direct investment into the economy. You have net exports and you have government spending as well. All four of these make up your uh calculation for total output in GDP. And the PC component basically your consumption component came down from Q4.
The reason was indeed the energy pricing which dragged the uh consumer to the downside in terms of overall consumer spending. Investment from businesses was very strong. We know the AI infrastructure buildout is contributing a lot to the GDP percentage and that was not changed. Net next net net exports was actually down worse due to rising imports and then government being back in action. You might remember the Q4 print in GDP was very very very soft.
It'll give you a benchmark right here.
If you take a look here at the GDP rate, uh you know, last quarter was 0.5% and a lot of that had to do with the fact that the government was shut down, but now with them being open and deploying a ton of capital in terms of uh fiscal policy, so tax savings, but also a lot of direct investments in the economy through various different mechanisms. Well, you were actually up sharply. So all of that combined leads to the 2% GDP print that you got. It was off the 2.3 2.2 too expected just because indeed the energy costs have been uh hitting the consumer in terms of their uh spending habits and things like that. Consumers have pulled back notably uh from the month of March onwards. That being said, not crazy but still enough to kind of hinder that GDP print in the last month where it was measured January through March.
Obviously, this impact was felt during the month of March. So that was your main things that came across the board uh in terms of the uh Thursday session.
Not much on Friday, but we will recap personal income and personal spending in a couple slides in a few moments here.
More market statistics right now. The NASDAQ composite rallied 15.3% in April, its best monthly performance since April of 2020 when the Fed injected a ton of money into the markets because of COVID and also when the Fed cut rates to zero.
The S&P 500 gained 10.4, the biggest monthly gain since November of 2020.
This marks the third best month overall in the last 15 years. Here is what that looks like. So, if you kind of missed out on the April rally, you would have unfortunately missed out on one of the best months uh at least in the last 15 years. However, there are still many opportunities available in the market.
And that's what we try to do in every video, right? Is try to explain what opportunities remain in any market circumstances. So, that was a very nice statistic right there. Moving on to further here, AI statistics. So in terms of how many people use AI and further breaking that down, what are the incomes of people who use AI, you'll notice something very curious here is as people's income goes up, so over 200,000, they use more and more AI at their workplace. 66 66% of people making over $200,000 a year are reported to use AI at the workplace, at least a lot more than they have in the past 12 months.
And as you kind of go down the pay grades, you'll see that people use this less and less. So there are a few caveats to this. Number one, people who make under 50k sometimes are in the unskilled labor areas, right? Such as like a delivery driver is not going to necessarily use AI at his workplace or things like that, right? So there are certain bluecollar uh jobs and things like that that don't really require AI use. So that is a caveat to the statistic, but still it is quite interesting to notice. College graduates were more than twice as likely to use AI at work than those without a degree at 58.7% versus 22.9. Full-time workers used AI at nearly two times the rate of part-time workers at 42.7 versus 24. And among workers who do use AI, 68% said it makes their job easier and 56.7% claimed it boosts their productivity. Now, although there may be caveats in the statistic, guy, one guys, one thing is for sure, right? you probably want to start using AI sooner than later. It does boost productivity overall. It can make your job easier and possibly can also give you the skills required to obtain those certificates or that promotion that you're looking to advance your career in. Right? As we can see right here, as you kind of move up the pay grades, depending on what you do, especially for a corporate job, AI skills are going to help you kind of get into those higher income tax brackets, at least more easily than if you were to not become self-sufficient and proficient in using AI. This is a very important statistic that I think everybody uh should be accustomed to by now, especially if you have kids, right?
having them kind of implement AI into their workflows whether they're in high school or university is probably going to be something very uh good to do here for the next 5 10 years overall just in terms of setting them up for the future.
Right. Moving up further here, risky fund inflows have exceeded safe asset fund inflows by a record of 220 billion over the last four weeks. Risky assets represent equities and corporate bonds among others. While safe assets include money markets and treasury bonds. You remember last week I showed you showed you the statistic. the most amount of capital um in the last 10 years has been pulled out of money market funds possibly some of it to pay taxes but other uh you know a lot of that other money would be used to plow into the markets. So here's your risky assets buys versus safe assets. You can see there's a very big ratio differential right here. The fastest on record. So clearly the month of April has really uh turned into a buying spree for a lot of people that were looking for an opportunity to get into the market while it was lower. Well, there you have some of the um some of the resulting conclusions from that. Moving on further here, the US personal. So, I told you guys we're going to bring up the personal savings and personal uh personal income versus personal spending rates and also saving rates too. And here's the chart for that. Okay, so the US personal savings rate fell.3 percentage points in March to 3.6% the lowest since October of 2022. This marks the second consecutive month consecutive monthly decline for a total drop of almost 1%. So here is your personal savings rate. You can see that since 2022, it's been kind of steadily eroding as we've kind of moved through these um different inflation um these different inflation mechanisms, whether as results from tariffs last year or the impact of the war of the Middle East this year, etc., etc., etc. Consumer spending grew 5.7% year-over-year in March, outpacing the personal income growth of 3.7. What does this say? Well, when you have depleted consumer savings, plus people are spending as much as they previously were. However, their personal income growth wasn't sustaining that spending, well, obviously they have to make up the difference somewhere. If you're spending 5.7% plus year-over-year, but your income only grew 3.7, you're going to have to take that in your savings rate, right? So, that's why the savings rate has been declining. It just goes to show the amount of uh pressure that's on the Fed right now to cut interest rates. And Jerome Powell was clear about this even last week. If it hadn't been for either tariffs or the war, interest rates would probably be a lot lower, which does give uh consumers a bit more leeway, a bit more breathing room in terms of their uh daily um spending or spending on rent, spending on mortgages, etc., etc., etc., for a bunch of things that may need refinancing at previously established high rates like auto loans or home mortgage loans that were assumed at higher rates than 2020 and 2021, things of that nature, right? So rate cuts are definitely going to help this overall landscape, but it just goes to show you when financial policy is or rather when uh the Fed's interest rate policy is so restrictive to the average consumer, well, you start to get a lot of consumers dipping more and more into their personal savings rates overall.
Moving on a bit further here, tech layoffs are skyrocketing. I found this to be quite interesting because we did cover it last week as well. This comes as tech giants shift spending towards AI chips and data centers, trimming staff to free up capital for infrastructure.
Here is the amount of tech layoffs in the first quarter of 2026. This is going to make the headlines all across the board, but for the wrong reasons, right?
We covered this last week. Just to reiterate, guys, a lot of this is either because a lot of these companies hired too much in 2021 and 2022 or because some companies such as Intel, etc. had execution problems and they had to trim their workforce as a result of those execution problems. You can even reference um Square Block Jack Dorsey's company, right? Firing a bunch of people as he did admit that he hired way too many people back in 2021 and 2022. So, not all of this is just big tech firing a whole bunch of people because they're getting more efficient at AI. Some of it is, and you will see that referenced in uh recently, Meta's job cuts of about 8,000 employee and also Microsoft offering volunteer voluntary retirement to 7% of its US workforce. So, companies are becoming more efficient with AI overall. But obviously, nobody actually talks about the sheer amount of job gains that AI will produce as well. So, keep that in mind. It's a great big balancing act. There's going to be a bit of turmoil here in the jobs market on the front end of things, but keep in mind whenever there's new technology in the markets, guys, it does create an absolute ton of jobs. And I think it's a good thing overall with AI, right?
Because what AI does is it removes a lot of menial tasks that people probably didn't want to do in the past, right?
Just think if you um work a customer service job or things like that, right?
the amount of time that you spend just typing on a keyboard, entering data that could possibly be done by an AI that just listens to the call and just e and that just extrapolates a customer call summary, conclusions, everything like that. It makes everybody more more efficient, right? So, these businesses will become more efficient overall. But I do think that the labor productivity is very real too, right? A lot of people at their daily jobs probably do a bunch of tasks that are very repetitive and that don't require a tremendous amount of skill that can possibly be automated away. It just leaves you the employee more time to actually be more creative and actually do the things for the company that truly matter uh to the bottom line. Right? If you're in sales and you work sales eight hours a day, you probably don't want to spend two hours a day just inputting um data in terms of what you spoke about with the customer or any follow-up notes or things like that. If you could just automate all the backend away and just purely focus on sales, that's more money in your pocket at the same time as well.
That's just one example obviously, right? So keep that in mind. You know, there's uh there's arguments on both side of the coin here for uh this whole layoffs due to AI. So keep that in mind.
Always important to stay balanced in our views of the market and newfound technology. Moving on a bit further here, the average price of a gallon in the of gas in the US surges to 443 a gallon, now up 61% since December.
Americans will spend 90 billion more at the pump in a year than they would with gasoline at $3. Here is your overall map of where the gas prices have increased the most or where they are the highest.
A lot of that has to do, of course, with individual state taxation of uh fuel at the pump. So, keep that in mind. But still something noteworthy, right? So, not only do I show you the good statistics on a weekly basis, but whenever there are somewhat questionable statistics that could make you nervous about the markets and things like that, it's always important to bring context into them overall, right? Can't just look at the good, can't just look at the bad. You have to look at everything and derive conclusions from there. Moving on a bit further here, the technology sector's price and valuations have diverged even after the bounce. This data was pulled on April 29th, so it is very recent overall. You will see here that the technology price in terms of the 52- week draw down it came down about 15% from the highs um a lot of the technology sector keep in mind this is blended with semiconductors but also with software which has gone destroyed right so you are at a 1.1% draw down when this was measured it's probably back to par or above uh at the current moment in time or the last couple days and look at the valuations guys the technology forward PE on a 52- week draw down right it's so much. What this means essentially is that the companies have pulled back but their earnings have grown and grown very fast. And we know that because this earning season has been very bullish so far overall in terms of the amount of companies reporting positive revenue in EPS. It's in like the above 80 percentage range which is massive. So these companies are improving profitability. They're improving earnings. They're improving revenues. However, their stock prices have declined, which makes it a very attractive environment to go shopping when you know that companies have declined despite posting record earnings. It would be different if it was the other way around, such as in 2022. Look at 2022, right? This was a problem because your valuation wasn't getting cheaper as the stock price was dropping. Why? Well, because companies weren't increasing EPS or revenue, they were decreasing them in 2022. So, that's very important. this opposition that we're finding right there. This is how you know that if you're still buying in the markets right now, there's a lot of great deals out there in terms of valuation multiples alone. And last but not least, to conclude the month of April, what does it mean when April is up so much? We know there's so much so many rumors going around about it being a midterm year and you know, we can't possibly go more. Well, here you go, right? So the next 6 months after such a bullish April close, the next 6 months average only 2.1% for the S&P 500 in terms of seasonality. So this is your whole seasonality argument, right? To where people some some some people say sell in May and go away because traditionally the months of May through the fall are probably not the best.
You'll see here May through October only 2.1% average changes and only 66% of the time you would be higher after this period of time in the markets. However, also keep in mind that when you have a big April, it's a very good thing as well. So, here's your S&P 500 performance after April going up 5%.
Well, you can see here, look at the April returns and look at the subsequent returns only back in 2001 is the recent period of time where you would have a negative outlier right there. But on average and on median, you are significantly higher. And that kind of goes in line with last year because a lot of this market damage was self-inflicted, right? Meaning like this didn't come from the market. This came from the US US's incursion into Iran.
This one right here, last April, didn't come from the overall economy, right?
No, it came from self-inflicted damage because of the whole tariff situation.
And thereafter, we need a substantial May. Well, look, the months of May through pretty much October were very good for the markets. So, you can have some outliers here. And we're also now coming off of some sequential lows because of self-inflicted damage, but earnings are also very good. So you can lean to the bias of the next few months could be very good because you have a lot of earnings power overall. So please keep that in mind. Those are your interesting facts and statistics of the day. Both good ones and also not so good ones. Hopefully we can bring uh more light into how you kind of have to analyze these data points, right?
Because a lot of people just take these data points in absolute terms, right?
They'll look at the AI job loss numbers right here and say, "Oh no, AI is destroying absolutely everything. How are people even bullish on this technology? Let's boycott all the data centers, right? But you got to look a bit deeper than that of obviously. Okay, so keep that in mind. And that is everything I had for you guys in terms of that. Now, we got a bunch of earnings to cover. So, let's get into it right away. And we're going to start off with the biggest one of the bunch. We're going to start off with good old Apple.
So, Apple coming out Thursday after the close with their earnings. And Apple really actually did crush it. Now, I'll remind you the context of Apple because it's very important. Apple for the last few years. I'll pull up the revenue growth rates here. The criticisms behind Apple or rather towards Apple were the fact that from 2021 to 2025, they barely grew EPS and they also barely grew revenue. It was a very flat period of time where you had a lot of pull forward demand because of all the stimulus checks in 2021, low interest rates as well. People bought all the personal electronics that they wanted to. And then Apple had a bit of a flat period of revenue growth, which a lot of people to believe that maybe Apple's no longer a growth company. Maybe they're just a value stock at this point in time and maybe they just don't deserve the praise that they once received. But now you have a situation where Apple is actually returning to very solid revenue growth numbers. So at a first glance right here, let's take a look at the numbers.
3.3 beat 3.3% beat on EPS and a 1.58% beat on revenue overall. And if we break down the numbers a little bit further here, guys, you'll see that by segment they were actually very very strong here. So, Apple re really beating across the board here in terms of the revenue estimates, in terms of the EPS estimates, beating across the board and greater China revenue was the highlight here, 28.1% year-over-year. A few years back, well, actually up until last year, China revenue was really struggling, but the Chinese really appreciating the results uh the releases of the new Mac suite of products, the MacBook Airs and also the iPhone 17 was quite wellreceived. Speaking about those iPhones, they came in and beat. Look, Apple actually beating on all their segments. Very impressive. 21.7% on iPhones services, 16.3. This is the highest margin portion of the business and it is a crucial portion of their business at $30 billion run rate per quarter which is wild. 16.7 on overall products and then the Max 5.7, iPads 8% and the wearables 5% as well. iPads were facing um you know fairly easy comps from last year, Macs were not though, but wearables were facing easy comps.
So, it's nice to see Apple beating all across the board here. Geographical geographical performance is also quite important. America's actually missed one of the only slight misses. Still grew 12% year-over-year, though. That's very good, guys. This used to be single digits for Apple uh just about last year and the year prior. Europe 14.7, China, as we said 28, Japan 15, very impressive there. And the rest of Asia Pacific really enjoying Apple products 25% higher. So, overall, guys, very impressive uh beats across the board for Apple right there. You can see this is their product suite. Apple's just such a consistent company. Of course, if you compare quarter over quarter, it's not going to make sense. Q4 is their biggest period of time because that's of course when they release from September to December all of their um newer products and that's when they get a ton of orders and you also have the holiday season, etc., etc., etc. So, you usually want to measure quarter over quarter of prior years. If you're measuring Q4, you measure with Q4 of the previous year, so on so forth. We see here Q1. Q1 is very much um a better quarter than Q1 at the same time last year. Their best March quarter ever of all time. Very strong growth rates for the business overall.
And in terms of the guidance too, the June quarter guide was pretty good. So the revenue growth now three quarters in a row of double digit revenue growth again for Apple. 14 to 17% is the guide.
The expectation was 9.1. So clearly beating that. And Apple saying a very rare thing here guys. They have constrained supply. Apple's never had to deal with that before. They have constrained supply across their Mac mini suite of products. And they also had a little bit of constrained supply in their iPhone product suite as well. And this is due to the memory shortage that is ongoing right now. Overall, services expected to grow year-over-year at the rate similar to the March quarter, which if you don't remember because I talk so much was about 16% year-over-year. Very strong growth right there. And overall too here guys um we they're providing the guidance they're providing assumes that the tariff rates policies and their applications remain in effect as of this call and that the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. So, a lot of companies saying the exact same thing, but a very strong quarter from Apple. And of course, of course, of course, I'm not forgetting, but of course, here the buybacks continue for Apple. An additional program of up to another hundred billion dollar in stock to be bought back over uh the foreseeable future. And look at the chart of buybacks here on Apple. Just so so so impressive. You know what you're getting with Apple at the end of the day. Very solid balance sheet. Nothing to say right here. Apple such a strong and consistent company, right? It struggled there with growth on EPS and growth on revenue for a couple years.
But Apple is now kind of back on track in terms of revenue generation, especially in terms of EPS generation as well. And overall, as an Apple shareholder, I'm very pleased with their current quarter. And they do have a nice couple set of products coming out this year. But still, still no AI powered series. We'll see when that eventually gets rolled out. But for what numbers they did deliver, it was of course very solid. Now, in terms of the valuation, you guys know me. You know, I've been saying for a while that Apple up here was expensive, and it is expensive, but at the end of the day, this stock for me does remain a hold. At 280 bucks right now, you're paying about a 32 Ford price to earnings, a 2.73 peg, which is quite high when comparing against other MAG7 peers, and a trailing 12-month free cash yield of 3.1%. Still a little bit high on the valuation, right? There are times, in my opinion, to buy Apple when the market doesn't like them. Nobody wants them. The last time I bought was down here in the 200s. And there are other times where the valuation is just a little bit too extended. Meaning that incremental shares bought up here, although they can make money, if you're buying at these high multiples like this, outperformance against the S&P on a longerterm time horizon of those incremental shares may not be very efficient in comparison to other bets that we could possibly place in the market. But Apple, a very strong company, I'm a very happy shareholder.
their moat is one of the best in the world in my opinion and the moat is no they don't have the best technology it is the ecosystem when Apple gets you into their ecosystem they make it incredibly tough for people to leave I'm a very I'm a very firm believer that Apple is still going to be one of the best companies in the entire market for years and years to come as a result I'm not selling any shares but also I'm not buying any more further shares up here but maybe could be interesting interesting for a bit of a swing trade bit of a breakout retest and maybe run trade but over and above that would it adding to my position substantially in terms of long-term shares. That's everything for company number one. Now, for companies number two and three, let's dive into some of the credit card players because you guys know that I've been talking a lot about Visa and Mastercard, especially during this most recent three-month decline on both Mastercard and Visa. And they reported earnings last week. So, let's go see what they have to say. Is their business being disrupted? Are these companies still a buy or they just going to uh just completely destroy this long-standing shareholder growth that they've been providing with for people?
Well, of course, guys, of course, the answer is no. They're not going out of business. The business is still doing very well, but there was a few hiccups during earnings, and we'll explain exactly what happened here because Mastercard initially had the pop after Visa earnings. Visa coming up 10% after their earnings and then coming down a little bit. Mastercard benefited from that pump, but then when they released their own earnings a few days later, well, unfortunately, Mastercard coming down in a big way right there. You can see right here, it's down like 5% from the Visa pop. So, what exactly happened to Mastercard? Did they miss on this quarter's earnings? No. And you had to dig a little bit deep to understand why they actually went down. So, let's take a look at the numbers here. 4.37 beat on EPS and a 1.68 beat on revenue for Mastercard. You're never expecting double percent beat, you know, double digit beats on revenue EPS, but still business as usual for this beautiful company. So, let's take a deeper dive at the numbers and see exactly what happened through those earnings for them to actually come down. Well, number one here, they beat on on revenue, but of course, they were up 16% year-over-year.
Phenomenal growth. You might look at these numbers and say, how is Master Mastercard growing 16% on revenue and 22% year-over-year on EPS? How is their stock down 5% after their earnings?
Gross dollar volume was up 7% as well.
Purchase volume was up 9%. Crossborder volume, which is another way of showing how people are traveling and things like that. That was up 13% year-over-year.
And switch transactions as well, was up 9%. This is their basically uh fee processing service. Whenever you tap your card, Mastercard collects that little fee. Those are what you refer to as switched transactions. Overall, everything guys here was very good.
Very, very good. as a matter of fact and keep in mind they did also buy back $4 billion of shares in Q1 and they authorized another or rather sorry they still have an authorization of 11.7 billion outstanding in terms of buyback so that doesn't change and their network is super large Mastercard and Maestro branded cards is 3.7 billion and if you take a look right here Mastercard's management this guy put a pretty good chart up here is doing a great job of capital allocation clear correlation between forward valuation and buybacks.
Lower valuation, more buybacks. Look how Mascu is increasing the buybacks. As their valuation, their price to free cash flow multiple gets compressed because of the stock price going down, they accelerate the buybacks into that.
And then when the price of free cash flow goes up, they kind of slow down the buyback. So this is amazing capital allocation from Mastercard's management right there. Moving on a bit further here, you have your Visa, Mastercard, American Express total transaction volume. You will notice that Visa is the larger network overall, but Mastercard a very decent number two. And you can see both across Visa and Mastercard total transaction volume is not slowing down.
Not even close. They just continue to get bigger and bigger overall moving a bit further into their earning slides.
Here is where the damage was done. So, of course, I could take you through the gross uh the gross dollar volume and things like that, but we've kind of ran over them already when we kind of hovered over these slides right here saying that everything was going good.
Whether it's gross dollar volume, purchase volume, switch transactions, revenue, all that was good. So what did the street have a problem with? Why do they send them down 5% after earnings?
And should we be concerned? Well, unfortunately, it was the war in the Middle East. If you take a look here at the April month to date, not Q1, which ended in March, March 31st to be specific. No, the month of April. Okay, this is what actually led the stock to be down. You'll notice a few things here. Here you have crossber travel. It was 8% which was in line with you know all four of Mascar's previous quarters before that. Look at April month to date 2%. So people unfortunately whether it's because of the sentiment around the war in the Middle East or the price of flights andor transportation international travel going up people have chosen to travel less in the month of April or at least book less flights and things of that nature and as a result crossber travel 2%. That was a problem for Wall Street. Other crossber volume supposed to be in the 10 to teens range. Look here, 6% for a total cross border volume drop of what usually should be in the low teens to only 9%.
This is the reason why the stock retraced on Thursday. Nothing more, nothing less. And management also did comment on that on the earnings call saying that the situation in the Middle East unfortunately had reduced the uh crossber expected transaction volumes that they wanted to see in the month of April overall. But still this is of course a temporary net effect. We did see some of these same effects happen last year during the tariff situation in April and May where people were kind of hesitant to travel to United States and etc etc etc because of sentiment. So one-time impact right now for Mastercard overall. I would not say this going to be an ongoing trend but you might be expecting a little bit of weakness here on the stock price as a result of those numbers. Moving on a bit further here.
One thing is for sure guys the valuation down here on Mastercard is extremely extremely compelling. If you take a look at Mashcard's forward price to earnings ratio, we are currently right now at about a 24.5. This is for 2027 earnings because when I show you the the details here, you'll see that I have it a bit higher here. This is for end of 2026, but end of 2027 at least for this is 24.48 overall. One of the lowest valuation multiples on a price a forward price to earnings basis that you would have been able to find since 2016 2017.
You got Mashgard and you have Visa down here as well. This is why I keep talking about these stocks, especially since the start of 2026. Their multiples in relation to where their median multiple should be is extremely low. And when it's extremely low, but the business is still executing excessively well. This is when I like to buy these highquality companies. Mastercard and Visa are not the sexiest businesses at all. They're not meant to be very sexy businesses.
They're meant to bring a bit of stability to an individual's portfolio.
I understand a lot of you are young and probably you might think, well, this one doesn't move fast enough for me, so I'll probably set it aside. But if you've been looking for an entry point into Mastercard and you enjoy the business model and you know the company and you agree with the fact that is a very high moat, well, this would probably be one that you would want to maybe explore around these current valuations, right?
At 495, the end of year for PE would be about 2516. The PEG ratio is 1.6, dirt cheap for Mastercard and a 3.65% 65% free cash yield. Also very attractive for Mastercard. This is a company that has the most consistent EPS of probably any stock in the market, right? The credit card companies, the networks, Visa and Mastercard, look at the revenue. And of course, what do they do with all their free cash flow? Well, they just buy back more and more and more and more shares. You might remember this chart here for Apple. If I just remove Apple and I add Mastercard to the same analysis, just look, they just keep buying back shares. And as I tell you, they're very efficient with those buybacks. Not doing them at any price.
No, really waiting for the stock price to compress and then they do more and more and more which definitely drives value to you the shareholder. So keep that in mind. Mascard in my opinion one of my favorite companies in the market overall in terms of moat and consistency and quality of their earnings and it's now trading right into almost the 200 weekly moving average. You almost never find Mastercard come down and tap here and especially not at these valuations.
So definitely want to keep on your watch list if you are interested in this style of company. That is everything for your overall Mastercard earnings recap.
Hopefully you enjoyed. Now, let's move into credit card company number two, which is Visa. And quick disclaimer, I own both of them. As a matter of fact, I own all three. I own Mastercard, I own Visa, and I own American Express overall. Very strong toll booth companies in my humble opinion. But now, let's focus on Visa. So, Visa coming out with their earnings beat on EPS by 7% and they did beat on revenue by 4.5% overall. But you will have noticed that was one of Visa's best single day performances in the history of the company. You don't usually find Visa I mean they closed up eight but at one point on that day they were up over 10%.
Very strong earnings sprint. So you might be asking well what led Visa to be up 10% after their earnings. Well let's have a look. If we take a look at some of the headline numbers right here you'll see that net revenues came in at a big beat. 17% year-over-year growth for Visa revenues which was nuts. They beat the street by 5%. This is Visa, guys. It's not like it's SanDisk or like Reddit or somebody like that, right?
Normally, the street is not this wrong on Visa. They had such a big beat right there. Almost 5% above the estimate, which is not easy to do for this company because they're so consistent. EPS also coming in at a very big beat, 20% year-over-year. Visa's second quarter net revenue growth of 17% was the highest since 2022 driving GAP EPS up 36% and non-GAAP EPS up 20% overall a very very solid quarter from them payments volume up 9% crossber volume up 12% year-over-year and process transactions you had a slight little miss right there but still driving revenue to the bottom line with a lot of different different verticals that play right here service revenue that was up 13% of year data processing revenue up 18% year-over-year here. And a big portion of this also is stable coins.
The ventures into stable coins here, guys. Visa is powering 90% of cryptocard spending surge up to $600 million monthly. So Visa has built for the past 2 years a lot of backend for payment rails using stable coin networks and they're finally starting to reap some of those very juicy uh process or some of those very juicy uh transaction fees overall. Right. So data processing revenue very strong right there and client incentives also up 14% year-over-year very strong metrics from them share repurchases and dividends okay over the course of the quarter $9.2 billion which is absolutely massive. If take a look here buybacks repurchase approximately $7.9 billion in shares remaining authorization is 13.2 2 billion plus an additional new authorization of $20 billion. Absolutely massive. Throughout the quarter, we continue to enhance our v um Visa as our Visa as a service stack, including with Gentic and Stablecoin capabilities to further strengthen our position as the leading hyperscaler of payments globally and drive growth for years to come. So, Visa embracing Aentic AI and stable coin payment rails to really grow at some of these rates they're currently growing at. You remember this chart right here, right? They're the largest network on the entire planet so far in terms of processing transactions. And Visa, similarly to Mastercard, is trading at some of its lowest forward price to earnings multiples that you'd be able to find in the last 10 years despite posting some of the best growth they've had since 2022. These are the types of opportunities that I love to find in the markets. Stocks that have not moved for the past year or so while getting very very uh good fundamental um numbers in terms of revenue and EPS expansion, free cash flow, all that right just in terms of the amount of buybacks that they have 32.7 billion or 33.2 billion, excuse me. That's 5.37% of their entire float outstanding that they can go and buy back. They bought back a ton in Q1. They have more buybacks coming and at the current price right now at 325 on Visa, you're looking at a 24.77 forward price to earnings for 2026. A 1.87 PEG which is very good for Visa and a 3.64% free cash flow yield which is excessively strong for this phenomenal company. Same as Mastercard guys, right? If you just look at the EPS growth rate, phenomenal revenue growth rate, phenomenal. And if you just give them their median multiple back, I'm not even going to ask for any expansion right here, okay? But if you just give them their median multiple back, a Visa that usually trades at 27 times forward earnings. Let's push it out to 2028 and see what we get. Yeah, let's just say 27 times forward earnings in 2028. Okay.
And we get them give them the 16.78 EPS if they don't beat it, which they probably will. It should give you a value per share of about 453 uh dollars per share by 2028. Right? Keep in mind it's not a growth company, but still that's a 38% um that's a 38% total growth rate from now through 2028. And that's if you just give them their average back, let alone if they actually re-expand back into the 30 range and things like that. And Mastercard is arguably the same too, right? If we were just to apply a multiple back to Mastercard and just give them what they deserve, arguably like a 27 forward multiple on 2028 earnings at that point in time, right? So just do 27 times their uh predicted EPS which is roughly around say 2643 or so. Okay, look what you get. I mean you get 713 right? The stocks trading right now for 495. So even on Mastercard you get a little bit more upside there. 44% ROI through uh 208 which is very good. I mean for these companies which are like old style boomer companies I mean the numbers are pretty good but then again maybe I'm biased because I love these companies so much but those are the details. And also Visa did have a slight little drop off same as Mastercard. So after Mascard reported, I mean the street didn't have a problem with it when Visa reported, but then when Mastercard highlighted well Visa came down, but Visa did have those same issues here in your 2026 crossber volume growth. You can see that and at coming into March it was okay.
But throughout the month of April, look, you have your crossber travel, crossber transactions, even ex or crossber transactions including travel were down.
Okay? So you got to pay attention to that. So um those are the things that have been affecting Visa and Mastercard a little bit over the course of the most recent few sessions. But as I said, probably still temporary in nature, which is why both Visa and Mastercard do get heavy buy ratings from me. I'll continue to add them to my long-term portfolios, especially around these prices, which we really haven't been able to get, guys, in like years. We haven't been able to buy Visa and Mastercard at such low forward multiples when their businesses are still doing exceptionally well. So, I'll be adding to these, but I do understand if you guys think that they're a little bit too slow for you. It is what it is. But, as I always say, guys, you know, this it depends what type of investor you are.
If you're very young and you have a long-term time horizon, maybe you want to focus fully fully fully on growth.
But if you're later on in your career and you uh are of a conservative nature and you just love high quality companies with great free cash flow, a great shareholder uh returns in terms of management's ability to um effectively manage capital, right? And drive it back to you in the form of buybacks or dividends and things of that nature. I mean Visa and Mastercard very very very high quality companies in my opinion.
That's everything for their earnings.
Now let's dive into company number four which is going to be Booking.com. Yes, another quote unquote boomer stock, but it's actually not so boomer. They're growing decently overall and also another company that you should be paying attention to if you enjoy capital returns, right? So, dividends, share buybacks, things of that nature, and a company that's able to manage capital extremely well, high mode business as well, the largest online travel operator on the planet. And I'm sure some of you guys are screaming through the screen, yeah, but what about AI? Aren't they going to disrupt their business? Don't worry, I got you covered. We're going to talk about that for Booking.com as well as their stock has suffered uh since the month of a October with some of those agentic AI news headlines overall. Now, the street has discounted it quite significantly. It's trading around its 200 weekly EMA, which is also a quite rare find for booking.com. I mean, you could only find them in a big bare market or I mean during a global pandemic when travel was overall shut down, but usually when we find it down here, especially at good valuations, well, it does tend to be a decent buying opportunity in the markets. So, let's dive into Booking.com and see what they had to say for their earnings reported last week. So, take a look here after their earnings came out, the stock actually dropped 5%, but then the bulls were able to buy it right back up. Why is that? Well, they had very strong numbers. beat on EPS by 6% and they beat on revenue fractionally by about 0.24%.
However, if you remember the Visa and Mastercard earnings that we just covered, management did say that the war in the Middle East had impacted travel a little bit across the board and as such their Q2 guidance was not as strong as it would have been otherwise. same as what's happened to the company back last April, but we kind of all know how that played out as well um after they kind of got through that a little bit and volumes returned back to normal. Well, this company just keeps executing as the largest travel online operator on the planet and it's not even close. So, let's do a bit of deep dive into the numbers here. So, the headline numbers for Booking.com, revenue coming in 16% year-over-year, EPS 14% year-over-year, gross bookings 15% year-over-year, but it was a slight miss. Room night sold as well came in at a 3 million miss as well only 6% up year-over-year and the Q2 guide was the disappointing area for this company this time around. Room night's growth only 2 to 4% expected for this quarter. The estimate was 7%. They had to taper back their guidance because of the situation in the Middle East and its impact on travel overall and al obviously that does impact their margins as well. 4 to 6% EBID dug growth as opposed to the 14% projected, which is why the stock came down. 4 to 6% growth booking um growth also underwhelming in relation to this most recent quarter.
Their best quarter is usually um supposed to be the summer month, so we'll see how that kind of plays out for them. Their fiscal year guide did include some very decent prints overall here. No change to what they said previously in last quarter's report.
However, we got to keep in mind that it'll be an ongoing situation, especially for Q2. Q2 may be a little bit rough for them, but Q3, Q4, they should resume activity per normal in my humble opinion. Now, if we take a look at some of their metrics internally here, guys, you'll see that it was not really bad at all, right? They're 12 trailing 12 months room nights per quarter, very strong. So, this company is extremely consistent. Although, it is a bit more cyclical in nature than other companies in the market. you can rely on them to deliver those shareholder returns because once again they are the biggest and best travel operator on the planet in my humble opinion and no they will not be disrupted by AI. We'll take a look at that in a little bit. Okay, alternative bookings. This one came down substantially. So this is something that they're kind of looking into a bit further. This has to do with uh their VBO kind of like their version of a Airbnb and other experiences. That was a negative point worth highlighting because it is a uh some a segment the company's trying to push into. Once again, Q1 2026 was not the best. They did talk about the impacts from the war in the Middle East as well. Mobile app mix continues to steadily increase over time. This is very important because they put on a loyalty program called Genius. It is working very very well for them in terms of uh just increasing customer loyalty and customer retention overall. If you're a shareholder, you really want to see this, right? customer retention and customer loyalty increasing over time and especially just this product mix, mobile app mix is very strong for the company as they've improved their mobile app a lot in the most recent few years. So keep that in mind. Q1 gross bookings grew 15% driven by some benefits from foreign exchange as well. So strong strong quarters. Q4 is usually the weakest quarter for Booking.com just because not many people travel during the holiday period of time. But Q1 through Q3 are their best quarters in an increasing mechanism as well. So please keep that in mind.
Overall payments, you don't need to look in this too much uh you know as it will fluctuate from quarter to quarter but uh just their operating expenses right the company's really good at controlling its overall operating expenses. So keep that in mind. That's why even though it is a cyclical business they're very good at delivering consistent EPS. If you take a look here at the uh EPS growth rate, right? And these are all very important things to understand if you're a shareholder of a cyclical business. you really want to ascertain whether or not they can uphold EPS on a year-over-year basis, right? So, if you look at this quarter over-arter, well, obviously it's because some quarters people travel more, some people some quarters people travel less, but in aggregate, very strong earnings power from this company and very strong revenue growth power as well. A very consistent business even though it is in the cyclical landscape overall. Now, take a look at a few more things. I don't think there's anything else that I wanted to highlight. Oh, it's the capital return part. Okay, capital return of four billion. Okay, so dividends and buybacks was the highest quarterly amount in company history. The highest 4 billion. Look at that right there. Massive print on the right hand side. And you can see it even better expressed with this chart right here.
Share buybacks. Okay, so the CEO saying, "No one is better positioned than we are to understand what our long-term value can and should be relative to market fluctuations on any given day or quarter." Look at the sheer scale of these buybacks. Absolutely massive amount of buybacks. Obviously, there was a bit of a lull period right there during the pandemic because the company was just focusing on, you know, keeping itself afloat when nobody was basically allowed to travel in a lot of parts of the world. But you can see since then resumed buybacks in this quarter very high. So, it just goes to show you management believes their stock is very cheap right now. And I also believe that their stock is pretty cheap right now too. Moving on a bit further here, Booking.com, Ford annualized PE, you can see the median right here is 21.14. The reason it was so high in 2020 is because they had a substantial drop in EPS because of the pandemic. So obviously, right, if the price stays high and your earnings just completely flatlines, well then obviously you're going to have a big jump in your price to earnings. That being said, now that it's normalized, you can see 15.8 times forward earnings far below their median average price right now. And that is despite the fact this company has done nothing but increase EPS and increase revenue over the past few years. This is why I've been accelerating my buys of Booking.com recently and I'm very happy to do so because the fundamental landscape of the company looks very good. Now the last question that we might need to tackle would be this one right here. Is AI going to disrupt the online travel operators? And the answer quite frankly is no. And that's very easy to determine. Right? So here you see I pulled it on Grock just so you guys know that I'm not talking out of my hat and just giving my personal opinion. This is all based in reality, right? So Google last year and open AI right have been making a lot of progress here into streamlining um travel plans and travel itineraries for people. A lot of people are looking on either chatbt or Google Gemini and saying hey build me a travel itinerary through Italy and stuff like that. And the concern was that if people were to use the LLMs more, well, maybe it would take away from Booking.com's ability to close the customer. As a matter of fact, that's not the case.
Why? It all has to do with this right here, Merchant of Record. Who is going to actually process the transaction and where people may do their search queries on Google and OpenAI? However, Booking.com is integration with both of those and OpenAI and both Google have determined that on a moving forward basis here, whether it's Google or whether it's OpenAI, they do not want to be the merchant on record. This is very important. They do not want to deal with the actual transaction, the payments, the customer service, the cancellation, and the postbooking support. So what they will do very well at is driving the traffic to the end merchant on record which in this case for most people is going to be booking.com and their subsidiaries. So will AI disrupt Booking.com's business? No. As a matter of fact, it would be complimentary to Bookings business and the CEO has said as much on the earnings call. So that being said, we can kind of um you know just interpret this for what it is being the fact that AI is helping book Booking.com, not destroying their business or replacing their business, so to speak. So that being said, in terms of the valuation right now, where do you stand with all these very nice metrics?
You see, airline tickets were up 28 and a half% year-over-year. They are going to have a bit of a rough Q2, but this might just be a nice buying opportunity for those of you that would otherwise be interested in owning this name. At 170 bucks right now, you're currently trading at a 16.224 224 priced earnings for the end of 2026. And in terms of the PEG ratio right now at a 0.98, they're going really nicely here guys. A PEG of 0.98 is very cheap. And right now the trailing 12 month free cash yield of 6.74% extremely extremely strong company. 18.2 billion of buybacks remain which is 13 almost 14% of the entire float. And you would probably be uh able to see in the next few quarters if the stock price still remains depressed, management is probably going to is probably going to uh realize some of their largest buybacks in corporate history all the way around here around the 12 the the 200 weekly EMA at a very depressed valuation could be a very interesting look to the same effect that Visa and Mastercard were. Booking.com. If you enjoy this style of company, a company that returns a lot of money to its shareholders, a company that although is cyclical, continues to drive EPS, continues to drive free cash flow, continues to drive revenue, that's not going to be disrupted by AI, and who is the largest online travel aggregator on the planet, well, you may want to have a second look at Booking.com. I will definitely be adding to this one in my portfolio. I'm not expecting a 50% overnight gain. Not even close. But if this one just returns to its median, right, of a 20, let's just give it a 2021 Ford multiple, right? And if we put it out to 2028, let's say, for a 14.38.
So, I'll just use a 21 very conservative uh Ford multiple, right? 14.38. Keep in mind, this can be bolstered by buybacks.
So, I'm not even going to encompass that. Just that would give it a forward stock price in 2028 of about $32. The stock's trading for about$170. That would be a very nice growth rate here of 77%. Which would be pretty good, right?
Sorry, did I do that properly? I think I did. I did it in one shot, so maybe didn't make sense there, but it would be about 77 78% if they just return to a standardized multiple by 2028. Decent ROI, decent margin of safety, and management will be buying back a ton of shares. So, keep all that in mind if you ever interested or curious about Booking.com. That's all I had for you guys for this one. Now, let's move into company number five. I'm trying to do these as quickly as possible because I know there's a lot, but there's some of my favorite companies in the market right now. So, let's move into the last one, which is going to be good old SPGI.
I know, I know, I know. Such a boring company with such a high moat, great free cash flow, great margins. I know, right? Talk about boring companies, but it's because they work over the long term, right? They're companies that you really don't necessarily have to worry about that much. So, let's move into SPGI. So SPGI coming out with their earnings last week and as you can see the stock price they they actually rose after the earnings about 4% gave it all back and unfortunately now back into our support area 425 down about 400. Is SPGI a good buy below its 200 weekly moving average which it rarely ever tests in corporate history? I mean you'd have to go back to the great financial crisis find SPGI down there. Is SPGI a good buy or will AI disrupt the entire this entire stock and the entire stock market? Um, well, obviously the answer is very clear. I think it's a buy for myself. Not financial advice to you guys, but maybe after this earnings report, you may be interested, too. So, take a look at the earnings real quick.
2.63% beat on EPS and a 2% beat on revenue. Very solid numbers from this company. Let's look at them. Let's look into them a little bit more. So some of the headline numbers for this very boring company right here you will see that most of the segments of the business grew very well whether it's the market intelligence business. So if you guys don't know SPGI they have a few different lines of business for the company. Number one is their ratings business. They are one of three credit ring rating agencies on the planet. I mean that at least are worth their weight. SPGI Moody's and Fitch. They also have the indices business which includes the S&P 500 suite of funds and products and also the Dow Jones suite of products. And they also have a very large analytics business too. Now this is the business that's come under scrutiny as of recently because of the uh you know uptick in AI and people saying well you could just vibe code your own analytics business. What would you need SPGI for? Well keep in mind right whether you're Claude or uh Gemini or other LLMs if you want to have SPGI data and integration you will have to pay them for it because this is all proprietary information. Now, this one was sold off by the algorithms, not well, just initial initial reaction, right? But when you dig deeper, you just quickly understand that nobody's replacing SPGI's analytics business.
This is proprietary data that you would need to pay uh to query essentially, right? So, for any API plugins or things of that nature, that's what you're kind of looking at overall. But let's deep dive the business and see, are they actually going out of business or not?
Well, their market intelligence business, okay, that was up 8%. Very strong. very strong for a business that's supposedly being um disrupted by AI. Now, this business was never really growing at 20% and got crushed down to eight. This is pretty standard for them.
Their ratings business is 13% higher.
The energy business 7% and their mobility segment about 8%. You will notice a difference in operating margins right here. 34% for the analytics business, which is not their highest margin segment. The ratings business and the Dow and the S&P and Dow Jones indices business. These are the highest margin components of the company and these are also the ones that are growing in terms of revenue growth rates the most. These are the ones that matter more so than any other ones there and they will be spinning off their mobility business. It doesn't bring in the highest margins overall. This will be spun off in the next few quarters. You won't see it here anymore. And you understand why because it's actually making the business functionally worse off in terms of operating margin capacity than if they were to maintain the other businesses. And they'll never sell out of their analytics business.
They paid way too much for IHS IHS market just a few years ago. So they will probably be maintaining this one.
It's a decent revenue growth driver for them in absolute total uh revenue volume but still the business component that has the worst operating margins overall.
If you move a little bit further here guys, you'll see there's nothing really to worry about. So if you take a look at the total uh lines of business as we just described, they're all growing really really well and your operating profit is actually increasing um you know faster so than the operating expenses would be which is very very solid too. So keep that in mind right so your adjusted expenses profile is only growing by 8 but your operating profit is up by uh 12%. So the company's becoming more and more proficient. This is what you like to call operating leverage. When a company raises revenues do their expenses raise at the same pace or slower? Well, their expense profile is uh coming up slower than their overall revenue profile, which is good.
And you can see that across all segments of the business, whether it's global market intelligence, okay, revenue outpacing expenses, that's what you want to see. Very strong there. Whichever aspect of the global market intelligence it is, whether it's data analytics, etc., those are all doing well in positive territory. If we move into the global ratings business, whether it's government debt, structured finance, financials, or corporate bonds, the rating, all of them having a very decent showing right here. And again, that very juicy operating profit profile is very nice. Global Energy, this is again a a division where they uh provide analytics on. It's not as if they own a bunch of um you know power plants or things like that. No, no, no. It's just data that they sell. You'll see that most of these here. Okay. All of them higher and obviously operating profile in terms of expenses very good. and their Dow Jones indices business. Of course, everything much much higher in terms of revenue growth rates and their expense profile also still under control. So, nothing wrong here and this is the last element of the business that will be spun off.
Okay, it's just that it has the least uh the less well the least proficient um operating margin profile across the board. So, they will be cutting it off and it's also not that big of a revenue driver for them. So, keep that in mind.
These are some of their macroeconomic assumptions. 3.2% global GDP growth, 2.2 2 for the US CPI 3.2. So they're already quite hawkish on the outlook and their guidance is reflected as such. Brent, they have it at $87 per barrel on average through the end of the year and build issuance growth low to mid- single digit. You know why this matters so much in terms of their guidance, guys? It's going to be one of the largest growth drivers for SPGI. And this has been why I've been accumulating some shares as much as they can in the most recent year as we kind of hit into some respective lows because SPGI and Moody's Corporation have one of the biggest debt refinance pipelines coming up for corporations, okay, for various forms of bonds and things like that over the next four or five years. You'll notice here the street is anticipating a big boom in EPS after not doing that well over the past 5 years because of high rates. And they're also expecting a pretty nice re revenue ramp as well. The reason is the following. Okay, so you got to keep this one in mind. Corporate debt refinancing pipeline. Okay, which is the primary driver for the ratings revenue. A big component and a highly profitable component for the business. That's why I spent the last 10 minutes breaking down, okay, the various components of the business and telling you guys that it's very important to understand that the highest margin component of the business is ratings because that is where a lot of the EPS bump will be coming from soon. And the reason being is this one right here. So I'm going through a bunch of slides right there. So the global rated corporate maturities through 2030 12.21 trillion. Okay, that is massive.
Interest rates have been high for so long. Nobody's really refinancing yet.
And it just keeps getting pushed back and pushed back and pushed back. This was supposed to be the explosive year for them. Unfortunately, not two, three rate cuts on the table anymore because of the war. It was supposed to be last year, but we got tariffs, right? So they've been pushing it back now for another year. Okay. So this is the pipeline that I want to participate in.
very high margin portion of the business for them. And if you're curious how much of this SPGI actually gets, whether it's investment grade, speculative grade, etc., okay, SPGI on average has about a 70 mid70s% uh volume for debt rating, US debt rating and also emerging markets etc. Asia, global debt markets, okay, mid70s.
So they have a lot of money coming into this aspect of their business in the next few years or the next 5 years. So that's why I want to be buying it now.
Okay? Because I don't think the market is fully appreciated what's about to happen for that debt repricing pipeline.
Additionally, particularly the revenue by segment here, very strong numbers overall, whether it's market intelligence, ratings, commodity insights, mobility, and indices.
Mobility will be spun off soon, but very consistent business profile.
Additionally, you got one little piece of information here. The SPGI CEO purchased a million dollar of shares at $429.
So if I'm buying shares here, I'm buying under what the CEO actually purchased them for. And the CEO does not purchase shares very often at all. So that was a very nice buy right there, too. And I think, did I forget any slides right here? I don't think I did. Oh, once again, yes, coming back to the median uh price to earnings ratio, right? So after all of that, okay, very solid business.
Nothing wrong with their margins, right?
Margins are very solid. 33% net margin quarter, a high margin business, a high free cash flow generating business as well per year, 5 and a half% um 5 a.5 billion free cash flow. The company did say that they were going to be reinvesting 100% or more of their 2026 free cash flow for dividends and buybacks. If we just infer that that's going to be another 5.5 billion, and I don't really see any reason that it wouldn't be, that's about 4.3% of the float, which is very strong. Very, very strong indeed. Keep in mind, very consistent business, right? That's why I'm showing you guys just a bunch of consistent business, consistent EPS, consistent revenue growth. Of course, all the analyst targets are way above the share price as they should be because right now SPGI is trading way too cheap. End of year price to earnings ratio 21 at the current share price right now. A 1.73 PEG, a 4.4 free cash yield. And you almost never almost never find SPGI trading at such low forward multiples. Their median is 27.3.
Some would argue that in the last few years it was it was a bit too high.
Well, we can't argue that it's a bit too high right now, can we? Right? It's at the lower band of what we've seen over the past decade overall. And if you just once again take a very normal straight line EPS expansion curve right here, and we were to give them back a fair, I'm not even going to use 27 or 30. Let's just say we give a very average because if it if it you know if it makes sense with a very conservative baseline approach that's what I did for Visa Mastercard booking.coms I'm using very average a very baseline not even bull you guys can do run bullbased bare if you want to I'm just giving a very conservative base case scenario let's just say they come back to 25 which is not even their median for the last 10 years let's just say we give them a Ford 25 even with all the debt repricing pipeline which could accelerate this multiple expansion but we're not going to give them that much multiple expansion. We'll just give them 25 2028 earnings. Okay. So 25 * 25.33.
Okay. And that should give them a share price of 633 come 2028. Their current share price is 426. That's 48% upside on SPGI. Yes, this very boring company. Uh you know should be giving you a very nice compound annual growth rate of over 20%. If they just keep continuing to do business as usual. So the market sold it off on AI fears largely overblown because AI doesn't have data. They still have to pull data under license agreements which brings money to SPGI every time it's used. The market hasn't fully understood that just yet. But maybe some of you guys can and maybe you're willing to see through this AI sell-off narrative and possibly bid this one up because of very large very very large debt repricing tailwinds in the next 5 years. very interesting times for SPGI right now. So, it is a buy for me, but I just figured if you guys would be interested that I could kind of run down uh what exactly has been happening to this business, why it's down so far, and if it's a buy or not in my humble opinion for the type of investor that would want to explore these value companies. Well, now you know what to look for. Hopefully, you guys enjoyed that segment as well. That is everything for our earnings breakdown. Hopefully, you enjoyed it. Now, the video is already an hour and 7 minutes long, but it needed to be done, man. We haven't done a good deep dive on some just high quality, you know, boomer businesses, right, that are not semiconductors and tech stocks and things like that. But I have a fair portion of my audience that enjoys these styles of companies, too. I spend a lot of time talking about growth and various niches and themes of the market every single video, but today was one that was dedicated more to the value uh component of um you know, the investor profile that people may have.
Okay, so keep that in mind. That's everything I had for you guys for earnings. Hopefully you enjoyed. Now we've got about 20 minutes to get through some charts here. So let's get it done. Okay, so the S&P guys, a little bit extended, not going to lie. Right here we've got a bit of a shooting star candle over the top and overbought RSI and five weeks consecutive in a row of rallies on the S&P. We are a bit extended from the moving averages as you can see that usually when we get, you know, about four or 5% away from the moving averages, something always happens to kind of bring us back to uh the ground. So, in the event that we do get a pullback over the coming week, wouldn't be surprising, right? Just going to have to see what it's going to what's going to be the catalyst for it.
And you do flush these most recent higher lows, 70844, you lose the daily uptrend. It's been a very nice daily uptrend this entire way. If you lose it, well, you might just be coming down there and just going for a weekly higher low. The bulls are still set up beautifully. Order flow is obviously still positive for the markets. Earnings have been fantastic and those are the things that do provide you with the tailwinds that the market needs to further expand, right? So keep that in mind if we're looking for pullbacks. In my opinion, they would be for buy the dip entries on our favorite companies, provided that those companies still trade at relatively fair valuations.
Moving on to the QQQs right now. Q's also in the similar landscape right now.
Higher lows are set at 654. Beautiful sequence of uptrends from the bottom.
But in the event that something happens next week and we move a little bit lower and flush these levels, we are probably coming down here to a bit more of a normalized fashion. Probably going for the weekly higher low attempt. And overall guys, I mean the weekly uh MACD has been expanding nicely and it can curl back here without actually flipping negative. It's done that a few times.
You can have pullbacks, couple weak pullbacks here and the MACD can still stay very strong once it's in expansion territory. So keep that in mind. So the Q's are looking a little bit extended right now from the EMAs. A little bit daily overbought too. So not the best entry level for positioning. Meaning like if you refer back to the intro like would I be top blasting things at any price currently? No. But I was would I still be looking for uh value in certain sectors? Yes, I probably would because some stocks have not had the same rallies as others, not you know, some stocks in the MAG 7 are still cheap, and we'll talk about that, too. I wouldn't be top blasting stocks that have just perpetually ran further and further and further away, and you guys know which ones we're talking about, namely some of the ones in semiconductors, but there's still a lot of very interesting companies that we can uh rotate some capital into. Financials overall not a very good day on Friday but we still have a slight daily uptrend right here.
In the event the financials are just not able to get it done. We know that because of the lack of interest rates this year and impacts of inflation.
Financials and fintech have been a bit muted. In the event you continue being muted and you revisit these lows. Well 5150 down about 50 bucks is a very good support area too. Keep that in mind.
It's been a weekly downtrend. Very nice size bounce about a 70% bounce on the recent weekly move lower. The bulls will be looking for a higher low and possibly for higher high expansion. And so keep that in mind. The MACD is still not crossed yet to the bull side. So we're going to still need a little bit more from the bulls either from the credit cards or from the banks to really get us off to a better uh weekly uptrending style. Moving on to XLV healthcare. XLV has been notably weak recently. It's the weakest sector in the market. It's not even close. Weekly downtrend obviously as well. And just pure monthly consolidation into some of your EMAs right here. Some of the ones though that had earnings last week that are quite interesting. Eli Liy. Eli Liy recapturing some of its price action here above the EMAs recapturing a lot of the support loan support zone that they had previously lost with this flush below. That's a look below and then gap.
Okay, look below then full engulfing.
This could be a very nice setup. Very nice setup for some possible longs on Eli Lee and I may be interested in taking that myself. I've been very patient on healthcare up until this earning season, but there are a few companies that I like and Eli Lee is definitely one of them. So keep that in mind. Moving on to semiconductors right now printing the highs higher lows down here 48277 we are very extended guys of course right still extended some of you might say we put in one more day that's going to be bearish divergence and you would probably be correct it is also very extended not only on the daily but also from the weekly EMAs but the market wants semis I mean yes we're at 80 on the weekly RSI too but I'm pretty sure all of you understand as well that if anything takes us down into consolidation which would be normal I mean semiconductors can go through periods of extended consolidation and still be very strong buys. If that does happen, well, you might just be revisiting some of your uh higher lows on weekly EMAs, right? So, I'm not saying we're going to go down the 440, but if this curls up and price moves lower, you may be able to tag it down here in the 460 450 range. Still the strongest area of the market. Sandisk earnings were phenomenal. We'll cover that on Monday. Of course, memory names going a bit crazy right now. Obviously, names like AMD, Intel, things like that printing the highs. Of course, you also have the analog device names like NXPI coming up after being down for a while.
X NXPI, Texas Instruments. So, it's like the whole market now in semiconductors is pushing. There are still some deals left behind. Shout out to Nvidia. Okay.
But a lot of the semiconductor industry right now is somewhat overbought. Dare I say a lot overbought. So, I'm still looking for decent value plays within semis as opposed to just chasing things that run perpetually higher and higher and higher. except for memory. Memory is still um arguably cheap on a forward basis, but the same can't be said about every single company. Like I can't sit here and say Intel is cheap on a forward basis, nor can I really sit here and say maybe companies like Texas Instruments, which we covered their earnings last week, they're not cheap on a Ford basis, but you still can find some semiconductor names here uh that do make sense on a Ford basis. And I would be focusing on those as opposed to just broadly chasing anything and everything with a semiconductor tag on their name.
Moving on to IWM Russell right now. So the Russell also peing above the higher lows are down here at about 270. We'll see if the bulls have it in them. This is largely going to be S&P and QQQ based. So in the event the indexes actually lose traction and go down.
Well, you know, the Russell is probably going to follow suit. That being said, if it does, well, you might just be looking down here for a back test. They tried it last week. The indexes were too strong, carried them higher. Five weeks in a row. If you do get more of a deep back test, probably coming down here 270 down to 265. Perfect back test of the previous resistance. support and beautiful EMA structure all the way down there, too. Moving on to some of your minor sectors. Well, XLP has not been performing too poorly. They got the daily uptrend back. Got the EMAs back as well. That's nice to see. And they also recaptured this big resistance area.
They flushed it. Okay. All this choppy price action stopped them down below here. Now, they're kind of recapturing this slowly. Staples could be somewhat interesting, but it's not everybody's favorite trade because it's very slow.
But figured I should tell you guys when I notice price action changes, right?
You lose the EMAs, you spent a while getting them back and then you finally get them back. Could be interesting for some swing trade longs with an easy stop loss below that 82 level. Moving on to consumer retail. Consumer retail has just been out of favor because of obviously inflation and the lack of interest rate cuts and things of that nature. So, still not my favorite sector in the market. Still unable to show any convincing price action that I should be net long here as opposed to other thematic trades that have been performing better. But we'll keep an eye on this one. In my opinion, you know, consumer retail is only going to come back in a in a rapid fashion if you get a permanent end to the war because of course then you get the rate cuts back on the table and people get a better better sense of, you know, uh when the uh energy crisis is going to be a little bit more under control right now.
Utilities had a very good day to start off the day on Friday and then pulling back. Utilities price action very choppy on the daily, but if you notice on the weekly what we're doing here, we're doing what I said we would probably do in the most recent few weeks, which is just tighten up here. In the in other words, this is a bit this is a very nice bull flag on utilities. So, there's several names that I really like in this space. We've been over this many times on the channel as of recently, right?
But, uh there's a lot of very strong utilities components in the market, specifically in terms of your independent power producers, okay, that are peaking above and looking very good like Nexta Energy starting to break out right now. Vistra is lagging a little bit behind, but still a very strong bet in my opinion for the next 2, three years. Constellation not looking too bad either. So utilities is really broad as a sector, but if we're looking for independent power producers that are closely tied into the data centers, I think those could be very nice thematic plays for the next few years. They're not fast like semiconductors, but there is a big energy bottleneck and they will uh have a lot to do with the grid, right? So moving on to real estate right now. Real estate, this one was just eb and flow with interest rates overall and I mean the yields have just been uh you know moving push and pull with all the war headlines overall. So we'll see what happens right there. This real estate market is probably not going to get a tremendous amount of lift until you put rate cuts back on the table. And energy overall is a very volatile trade too.
This is largely beholden to the price of oil. We got some very nice numbers out of the energy companies last Friday.
You'll see Konico Phillips had very ridiculously strong earnings. Exon Mobile had ridiculously strong earnings and Chevron also had ridiculously strong earnings. Look at these EPS beats. It's the EPS. It's the margins. The margins, the free cash flow are amazing. Of course, these are very cyclical businesses in nature. They really eb and flow with the price of the barrel of oil, but you know, sustained export capacity from the United States more so than in the past few years should help continue to give these companies a little bit of lift. So, I don't mind long oil or long MLPs like some of the pipeline companies for the foreseeable future, especially the pipeline companies that have close ties to the data centers such as either Nbridge or Kinder Morgan or things like that. Like, they're quite interesting to me. but also big oil just in terms of like the structural export capacity in the future and the fact that countries may be less dependent on the straight of horses moving forward cuz now they know it can happen right well you got a lot of export capacity here Venezuela also helps these companies too so you know on these back tests like Chevron on these back tests here for like long-term holds for people that enjoy energy not opposed to it of course they'll eb and flow with the price of the barrel of oil but I think that the margins of the free cash flow that they'll show and the renewed export capacity should help uh give them a lot of lift into the future there. So keep that in mind. We'll kind of jump over a few key things today because none of them have moved. Like gold really hasn't done a move. You guys know what to watch for right on gold. Gold is just looking for the support level right here. 45 down about 43. The bulls need to reclaim control of the daily uptrend if you want to see any meaningful progress here on the weekly. But it's not looking bad, right? They're kind of reacting from the exact zone that we wanted them to. And now they just got to react and get the weekly uptrend back.
It's not looking bad for a bit of a bid right here. But if you are bidding, they give you a clear stop-loss level, right?
Because the last thing you want is to be unwound further into the support area and try to predict that those are the lows. So tight stop loss would be down below there. Wide stop loss for a larger macro swing trade would be there and then targeting reexpansion towards 6,000 etc. So gold is not shaping up too bad.
The monthly bulls are still widely in control and silver is just, you know, is going to be a proxy for gold at the same time. Right? If gold uh if gold is unable to to complete this trend reversal pattern, I mean don't expect anything good out of silver either, right? silver will be the exact same trade structure. Stop loss below recent lows. If you're trying to call this as the weekly higher low for expansion into overhead targets of, you know, the mid 80s and then subsequently 93 or if you're longerdated, right, you'd have a stop loss below this flush level cuz you don't want to be unwound by the higher time frames here on the monthly going for deeper retracements. But that being said, structurally it doesn't look that bad. Stop loss would be there, entry here, and then take profit of course would be uh to the 100 levels again. So keep that in mind. Gold and silver, not bad. They're moving slower than they once did, but they are still offering decent risk-reward setups. And Bitcoin and Ethereum, I mean, Bitcoin and Ethereum, they're they're not terrible, right? But they're just also not moving like crypto should move. The best charts here are the weeklies. Weekly still an uptrend on Bitcoin and weekly still a uptrend on Ethereum as well. But until I see more capital flows into this sector, it's going to be tough for me to say, "Yep, this is the absolute structural bottom. It may not give a retest." And now we're going to be off to the races around 120. Very tough to say, right?
They got a lot of work to do on these monthlies to repair the price action structure right now. So, crypto is just not a segment of the market that I'm focusing too much on. I like to play it when it has better momentum than this.
So, that's just me personally. Okay, so that's out of the way. Now, let's cover for the next 10 minutes are big tech companies. And sadly, I won't have time to do the biggest gainers and losers of the day. We'll have to do those on Monday or as we approach into next week.
But, you guys know when it's deep earning season, right? I got to cover the earnings because you know price action is fun and stuff like that but at the end of the day you also have to kind of um you know relate the price action to earnings which is very important right that's the missing link that people often forget they focus too much on price action not enough on earnings or too much on earnings and not on not enough on price action and we kind of try to tie in them in both at the same time so let's cover uh this big tech list and then we'll be done for today guys. Okay, so good old Apple. We just covered their earnings and as I said with their earnings presentation, I'm not necessarily buying any stock up here, but I am definitely holding. Apple price action is pretty good right now.
We've come above the highs. If we get a back test in here, it might be very interesting back test some of these 275 areas with the EMAs. Could be a pretty simple trade here. Establishing a stop-loss below and then just taking the bulls uh you know, taking the bulls at face value here and going for a weekly MACD expansion. So, little bit of a trade opportunity here on Apple, but nothing for me in terms of long-term shares. on to AMD right now. AMD was up 1.71%. Brand new all-time high 360 on good old AMD. They have their earnings coming up next Tuesday, so it should be very interesting. Unwilling to comment too much on the price action, of course, it's rallied a ton. And you guys know what happens sometimes when companies rallied a ton into their earnings. It could be a blowout quarter for AMD, but even even if they show us a blowout quarter and don't raise guidance enough, you know, to corroborate with this move, you could just come down. So, we'll do more price action analysis on AMD come Tuesday after the close. But for now, I'm not adding to any positions up here.
I would really like to see that earnings print overall. Congratulations to all AMD shareholders if you were able to buy the dips progressively over the months of February and March. Moving on to Amazon right now. Amazon earnings last week. Phenomenal earnings by Amazon overall. And you can see they had a negative earnings reaction on Thursday, but the market did buy it back up. So, it is a bit extended here on the daily on the RSI. However, the weekly time frame is a very very clear, very clear expansionary move from the bulls right there. In the event that you get a back test here, guys, pay attention to a couple levels. Obviously, these guys right here, 250 and the EMAs will be curling up. If we can find some retest on Amazon down there, sub 250, I'd probably be a big fan of maybe putting on a couple more trades or maybe even last batch of shares overall. Uh, as I do still believe that Amazon, you know, around that 250 is manageable up here at 275. It's a little bit high, not going to lie. A little bit high, but down there around the 250 sub 250 range is a bit more manageable for me at least.
Moving on to Google. Google, look at the close on Google last week, man. And the MACD cross on the weekly as well. So, it looks like Google wants to actually go for 400. We'll see if they can get it done this week or if something happens to take them back from that. Well, you might just be looking for a back test here of maybe some of the EMAs. We're well above the former all-time highs at about 350. I don't know if they get back down there, but if they do, that'll probably be a next area of interest for the bulls up here above 370. You guys know, I mean, Google is trading a bit rich right now. 32 Ford earnings and a two peg. This is where you kind of have to draw the line. At least I do right now on Google stock. So, I'm holding every single share that I have. I'm not adding any more up here. And I'm definitely not just layering on call options for the short term either. It's a little bit extended on all time frames here, whether it's the daily at R 82 RSI, whether it's the weekly move as well. very extended from their moving averages, right? You see that when Google pulls away from its moving averages even in very strong bull runs, right? It can pull back closer. Now, we are quite a bit of a distance away from that, but very strong earnings. We covered those last week. Uh Meta right now, Meta after the earnings down about 10 11% right there. Meta in my opinion, well, for me at least, is going to be a buy especially down here into support.
600 down to 550 short puts for me, but also some shares. Okay, so the daily price action of course got a big gap down below right now. This area is now resistance, but you got a big area of support. The price action on the shorter time frames here is very messy. Even on the weekly, it's very, very messy overall. But the long-term fundamental value is quite clear in my opinion below 630, 21 Ford, a 1.11 peg. So, you may have to be a bit more patient with Meta in terms of its expansion capacity, right? But I'm definitely a big fan of um taking advantage of these dips on this company. And the same thing could be said about Microsoft. Microsoft came down after their earnings back tested 400 down to about 380 support range which is a very solid area for the stock. It was support all 2024 except for tariffs and all of 2025 except for the peak of the warfare period right very close to its 200 weekly moving average as well and very compelling on a valuation standpoint 25 forward price to earnings and a 1.45 four, five pegs. So, you know, forgive me for not hot blasting Google up here, okay? Or Apple up here. Even if they're good, I'm holding those. But what I'm adding to are the companies that are still fundamentally sound at good valuations at depressed prices. And Microsoft is one of those. Moving on to Netflix now.
Netflix down 1.66%. This is still a line in the sand for Netflix. $90 flat. The bulls really, really, really need to hold this level. If not, you're actually coming down here to 86 to about 82, which is the next relevant area from all the way back here in 2025. So, keep that in mind. Netflix had it going for them.
And unfortunately, the street really did not like that print and it's just been weak ever since under the EMAs. So, no trade action for me on Netflix right now. The short time frames are a bit too weak in for my liking rather for a swing trade. under 90 though is when I do resume my shares uh in terms of buying for the long term as it would be very close to a 24 forward multiple like a 1.2 2 peg. Decent value down there on Netflix. For me on Netflix, that's kind of my pocket that I enjoy buying in is anything below 90, but it will take a while probably to recover as it's in the same place as Spotify, right? A lot of this consumer tech is just not uh in the street's favor right now. The street really wants infrastructure in semis.
Nvidia Corporation, Nvidia coming down 4% 4 and a.5% on Thursday and another half a percent on Friday. And people might be wondering why it was so nicely along for the breakout. the rest of semis are pushing but not Nvidia. Well, it had to do with what Google and Amazon said on their earnings calls. The fact that Google their TPU business was doing really well and Amazon their tranian chips were doing very well. So, some people are nervous that because the hyperscalers are doing their own chips that maybe Nvidia is going to sell less into them. Obviously, big market overreaction as per usual with Nvidia.
No uh fear for this business, at least myself personally right now. If anything, it's going to present a very nice uh buying opportunity as we did highlight this one a few times uh over the past week, right? If you get a nice expansionary move, right, like this big engulfing move, you're looking for the breakout and possibly the eventual retest. If it comes down here, mid190s, I'll be buying some Nvidia right into those EMAs. Could be interesting for a bit of a swing trade long, but also longerterm shares as around 195.
Valuation is still very, very compelling. No earnings from Nvidia until the midpoint of the month of May.
So, keep that in mind. On to Tesla right now. Now Tesla up 2.4%. And they're trying. You got to give it to them.
They're trying. Recapturing some of the EMAs. Not above the 200 though. That's that green line. If you come over and and above the top here, 406, then we finally got some momentum. Then we can maybe play this one with a stop below recent lows on the higher lows right there. And you might just be looking for the weekly uptrend expansion. MACD has not crossed, but has been negative since the month of December. Weekly has been a downtrend since that same time. If they show you a different price action regime change, it could get interesting on Tesla there for a minute. I'm not adding any long-term shares up here, but maybe a bit of a swing trade if we kind of break above that 406 and just give me confirmation because the last thing I want to do is trade without confirmation is just get stuck in this range between resistance and support. I'd rather them show me they want the breakout and then we can play it as a breakout as opposed to just, you know, very awkward price action recently, but they're trying onto Palanteer right now. No comments on Palunteer because they have earnings on Monday. So, I mean, the stock's probably going to move up move 7 10% after earnings. So, we'll see which way it goes. If they break and close above after earnings, could be really nice for some possible swing trade longs. That'll be daily uptrend. It'll also be a very nice weekly break above, too. They kind of got pushed back all the way here. If we get it again, could be nice. They could curl over the MACD, reclaim the moving averages, and then we might be able to get some lift on Palunteer. And if they break down, I might be buying some shares down here, mid120s. So, keep that in mind. We'll cover their earnings on Monday for you guys. Onto SoFi. SoFi, I'll also cover their earnings on Monday for you guys as well. They came down huge 15% after their earnings. I'm a short put seller down here around the $14 range and also a little bit of accumulation for some long-term shares as we currently stand down there at about 16. I mean the multiple has compressed a bit. It'll be down about a 28 Ford price to earnings, a8 peg and under a four forward price to sales.
Fintech has just been largely out of favor. But as I said, I'll do a little bit more of a deep dive for you guys uh come Monday after the close because I don't really think SoFi is going to do much between now and Monday evening when I tell when I talk to you guys about this one. So, I'd rather save most of the analysis for then. Moving on to Uber right now. Uber also has earnings coming up this Wednesday. So, price action will probably stay muted. I'm not expecting a big big breakout by Uber uh bel ab above the whole 75 to 80 resistance band nor I'm expecting a big breakdown before their earnings below 70 to the 65 support band right there. The price action is probably going to stay muted until that time. If you do get a nice breakout higher that'll be a weekly uptrend, okay? And we'll got to pay attention to it because then we can make maybe get some swing trades on Uber with it curling over the MACD. If they send us down after earnings, well, I'll be a buyer of long-term shares but no swing trades. So, keep that in mind. I'm a big fan of waiting until earnings, until after earnings to maybe sell some puts down here. If they drop the stock, that'll be great for me for some accumulation. And last but not least, TSM. TSM doing not much of anything here at the highs. So, line in the sand level right now is currently these higher lows, 385. If you flush these daily downtrend and maybe a bit of weekly consolidation with the rest of semiconductors, you might be able to push back to 370, 360, this little pocket, former highs, 12 EMA on the weekly. That might be a nice interesting area for a bit of a swing trade long.
But overall, the valuation on TSMC uh prevents me from buying too many shares up here as it is a little bit rich here at 390. You're trading at about a, you know, add 10% of this 27 28 forward multiple 1.1 peg. Not terrible on the valuation front. I'll be the first to admit that. But when you're talking about a $2 trillion company, you try to get the best deals as you possibly can, right? So TSMC phenomenal company, one of my favorite semiconductor companies in the entire market, but I'm pretty much full on my TSMC. I wouldn't blame people for nibbling on long-term shares down here. If you want to hold TSMC for the next 3, five plus years, etc. I mean, the quality is there. The return on capital employed and return on invested capital is definitely there, okay? But these revenue and EPS growth rates won't be there forever, which is why you got to take this EPS growth rate with a grain of salt. But it will be there for the next few years, okay? I'm just focusing on longerterm buys to make sure that any shares that I execute for my long-term portfolio. I want to know that over the next not only just the next two three years they may outperform but the next 510 right but thematically TSM decent um you know looking very decent here for some expansion over the next two years overall the multiple could definitely support some expansion down there and nobody would be surprised. But that's everything I had for you guys today. I tried to keep it under an hour and 30 but I went 1 minute over. Sorry, people are going to see an hour and 30 on my thumbnail and be like, "No way I'm watching this." But for those of you that stuck around and did watch, hopefully you guys learned something. If you did enjoy today's video, consider dropping a like. Would appreciate it for the growth of the channel. Consider subscribing to the channel if you're new as well. We do these every Monday to Thursday after the market closes, but when I can't be there, sometimes you see me do videos on Saturday. And if you have if you guys have any questions or comments or feedback, I would love to hear from you guys in the comment section. I always love reading your guys' comments. So, if you have anything or if you guys were looking at certain plays that I haven't mentioned in the videos recently, feel free to leave them down below. I'm pretty sure everybody would like to see what you guys are looking at as well.
That's it for me. Have a good rest of your Saturday evening and a good rest of your weekend. I'll see you tomorrow for the top five options plays of the week.
Have a good one. Peace.
Related Videos
VALORANT's Latest 'Exclusive' Tier Bundle is Rough...
KangaValorant
17K views•2026-05-28
Flight Attendant Mocks Poor Looking Black Woman — Mid Air Announcement Exposes Her Real Power
SkyboundStories-b4r
184 views•2026-05-28
I FIXED My Friend’s Blown Turbo RX-8… Then Sold It
Cameron-RX8
134 views•2026-05-28
NewsWatch 12 at 5: Top Stories
NewsWatch12
1K views•2026-05-28
Simon Jordan & Danny Murphy deliver PREDICTIONS for Arsenal's Champions League FINAL with PSG
talkSPORTArsenal
6K views•2026-05-28
Botting is OUT OF CONTROL in Classic WoW (Again)...
SolheimGaming
108 views•2026-05-28
The "AI Job Apocalypse" is CANCELLED!
WesRoth
9K views•2026-05-28
STREET FIGHTER 6 - INGRID Story Walkthrough @ 4K 60ᶠᵖˢ ✔
RajmanGamingHD
12K views•2026-05-28
