Portland Weather, A "Hot" 90° Day, Then Rain Chances

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:01]Coming up on 5:30 on a Sunday, meteorologist Rod Hill coming to you from Vancouver. Hope you enjoyed a very nice Mother's Day. I'm blessed and that my parents now live out here. So, got to enjoy a Mother's Day brunch with my mom and of course my uh beautiful wife also a mother. Again, hope your day was good.

[00:00:19]Looks like temperatures this afternoon here in Portland were right around 70°.

[00:00:24]Had a mix of cloudiness this morning and now it's really quite lovely out there.

[00:00:27]I do have a warmup tomorrow, a warmup into Tuesday, and then starting Wednesday, which is my headline, we get into some shower chances. And if you look at this graphic, this is the European model on Wednesday. Upper level low, which comes inland down into California. Boy, we have seen this a lot. Sends us a south wind flow. That typically means there's the chance of developing thunderstorms along the Cascades during the day on Wednesday.

[00:00:56]may or may not be a shower pop into the valley. There's a second uh kind of bigger, deeper, colder upper level trough that's sitting up the Gulf of Alaska that is going to swing in. I'm looking at my notes and bring us a chance of rain as soon as Thursday into Friday. So, we are looking at multiple rain chances starting midweek, but shower chances this week, but rain totals could disappoint, I'm afraid. So, maybe we'll get lucky.

[00:01:24]Maybe we'll get lucky. But we still are tracking May dry concerns. In fact, let me tell you this.

[00:01:31]The last time Portland had measurable rainfall was the 22nd day of April. Now, on the 21st, we had 3/10. On the 22nd, we had 43100s of an inch. But that soak is now 19 days ago. We're coming up on nearly three complete weeks in spring without any measable rainfall. And that is not good news, my friends. Okay, more on all of that coming up. Uh, as always, I want to remind you that this is brought to you by my sponsor, the Momentous Wealth Management Team. Uh, they consider themselves wealth management for real life. Again, I use them for my retirement planning. They're so great at um explaining, you tell them, hey, I want to retire when I'm 70 or 60 or in three years. and they will put together a plan and tell you what your income would be at that time off of your retirement investment. So great people managed uh or excuse me licensed rather in Oregon and in Washington.

[00:02:31]Momentous Wealth Management. Okay. So I mentioned we do have a warm-up. We have sunshine coming tomorrow. We have mostly sunny skies on Tuesday. I think tomorrow generally around 80 and I think Tuesday generally around 90. we get into an east wind flow tomorrow and more so of an east wind flow with a warming air mass on Tuesday. So here is the national blended model showing you projected highs for tomorrow, Monday, May 11th.

[00:02:57]This shows 79 81 around Portland. I actually have us at 82. Shows low 70s up around Seattle and down to Tacoma and Olympia. Shows 71 in Tamok tomorrow.

[00:03:08]Shows 91 down in Medford and low 80s over Dashes County. Okay, what about Tuesday, which is going to be the hottest day of this upcoming week easily. This shows some 90s out in the Columbia Basin up into Washington. Low 90s in Dutes County, low 90s out uh toward the Blue Mountains. Shows 60s and 70s along the coast. Um I think Portland could hit 90. I think we're at least going to be upper 80s. So I think this is too cool. 85 86 I think is too cool for Tuesday. And then it and and up and down the Lama Valley for that matter. If we get an east wind flow, also the coast could be looking at some temperatures nearing 80 degrees as well. Again, that is Tuesday. Now, Wednesday, just like that, notice the cool down.

[00:03:54]Still in the 70s in Seattle and still in the mid70s in Portland. I have us at 74 on my 7-day forecast. Cooling into the 80s in the Columbia Basin. Cooling into the 70s in Dashes County. And then the cool down continues. Here's Thursday.

[00:04:09]Low 70s around Portland, down through Eugene. Upper 60s to about 70 up in Seattle. Here's Friday. Low 60s to 64 in Seattle down around through Olympia. 66 67 Portland Salem 68 Eugene 76 down in Medford. And then we start to dry out potentially on some of the models Saturday. But other models give us a rain chance and we stay cool. So, if we can get through an 80°ree day tomorrow and a nearing 90°ree day Tuesday, the rest of the week is going to be comfortable to even cool for this time of the year with a mix of cloudiness and an ongoing shower chance.

[00:04:48]But at any given point, as I mentioned a moment ago, we simply may not see that much total rain. Here's the European upper flow pattern. I'll take you I'm going to go and play this into the next couple of weeks. So, here we are on this Mother's Day. We've got ridging building up in Nevada into Nevada and Idaho. We clearly had a nice day today. The ridging builds even more northward all the way up into British Columbia on Monday. On Tuesday, the ridging axis right here is the axis. Follow my cursor where if you look at the the horseshoe inverted horseshoe if you will, you've got the axis up across Idaho. But I think again Tuesday about 80, excuse me, Monday about 80. Tuesday about 90. And then here's that rain chance with our first upper level low coming in on Wednesday. Now it moves inland Wednesday afternoon into Northern California. We may or may not see scattered showers here in the valley. It's just a scattered rain chance, a lesser chance of any rain chance at all up into Washington, but there will be thunderstorm possibilities along the Cascades and especially over into central and eastern Oregon. Here's the next system. It's quite a bit bigger setting up in the Gulf of Alaska. It drops down quickly. Now, here's Thursday and I'm going to play this into Friday.

[00:06:01]The meat of this system stays to our north. So, Thursday into Friday, absolutely some showers in Seattle.

[00:06:08]Absolutely. A better overall rain chance in Washington as opposed to Oregon, but maybe we get some showers down into Portland. Maybe we get some down into Salem. Again, this will be Thursday and this is Friday that you're looking at.

[00:06:21]This moves off on Saturday. There might still be a shower threat. But what if I just if I what I just played you, if it is correct, the best chances of rain overall this week might end up being on Thursday and Friday. I do have us going dry on this coming Sunday. And then here's Monday. Probably still a a dry day with weather systems holding to our north. And then there's a big ridge offshore. This goes into the mid part of next week. This would be uh Wednesday, May 20th. That is some 90°ree heat time.

[00:06:54]If this holds together, this is Thursday, the 21st of May. That is potentially the warmest weather we have had so far this spring season. That big ridge hangs out for several days. And did you notice after rain chances this week that may or may not pan out to be much, we basically go dry the following week, not this week, but the next week.

[00:07:17]And there's just not much out there.

[00:07:19]Here we are now getting into the latter part of May into the first parts of June. A lot of what we've been seeing lows tracking south into California, ridging up in the Northwest. I mean, this is a dry weather pattern. If we don't get anything off of this low, we may not. We're we go on another twoe run of no moisture. This is finally some rain coming in on Monday, June 8th. So yes, remember last time we spoke I told you the American GFS model shows less than an inch of total rain for the Wamut Valley, Portland Salem all the way through the month of May.

[00:07:58]You could make the argument that we may not even get a half of an inch of rain.

[00:08:02]So we'll see. And then it looks like a fairly dry start to June. So concerning in terms of drying out ahead of fire season, absolutely. Absolutely. Okay, let's take a look at a couple of rain animations. This is the American GFS.

[00:08:16]All right, this is starting tomorrow on Monday. Shows there's been some showers up around Vancouver Island. Uh touch of rain maybe north of Seattle, but basically here's our rain chance setting out here in the Pacific. So, let me play this. See the rain chance increasing coming in off the Pacific. Now, we're into Wednesday. We start seeing some light rain chances in gray. This basically gives us a dribble along the Oregon coast. a dribble in the Lama Valley, but it is firing up showers along the Cascades. This is Wednesday afternoon into eastern Oregon. Not much up around Seattle either. Again, this is a cumulative. So, if this is correct, that first low that gives shower chances in Oregon doesn't really bring any rain chance to Washington. And for the most part, what it does is fire up thunderstorms in southern and eastern Oregon.

[00:09:03]This is Thursday going into Friday. Now, remember Friday, we have that secondary low that's to our north. So there's some rain, maybe getting close to a quarter of an inch of rain up in Seattle. Gives a touch of rain around Portland, but very little south into the Wamut Valley.

[00:09:20]Haven't really seen any rain in in southern or eastern Oregon from that second day low either. And then by the time we get into Sunday, we're all dry.

[00:09:28]Okay, I'm going to come back to these totals in a second. Let me show the European model. This is Monday again.

[00:09:33]There's been some rain up in Canada basically and north of Seattle. Here it comes. That first low, the rain out in the Pacific. This is very similar to the GFS. Now, Wednesday morning, this is much more favorable to rain coming up into the Wamut Valley. Here's Wednesday afternoon. It has built some thunderstorms along the Cascades, including Mount Hood with big time 1-in downpours and up into the Western Gorge.

[00:09:58]Gives a quarter of an inch of rain in parts of the Lama Valley up into Portland. Remember, the GFS model was going less than 5100s of an inch. This also is more favorable and pushing some rain up into central and eastern Washington. Now Thursday we have that second low into Friday. Here comes those rain totals. Okay. And then let's go and play it into Saturday. Wh Let's back it up. This only goes as far as Saturday about noon.

[00:10:22]So the differences are this doesn't produce as much rain in southern or eastern Oregon as the American GFS did.

[00:10:30]Again, this is European model, but it does provide more wetting up in eastern Washington. And if anything, it's wetter, especially up into the Cascades from that secondary low of Washington.

[00:10:41]There's two inches of rain in the North Washington Cascades. Okay, so let's compare them. You go back to the rain totals. This is Let me let me apples and apples. Okay, let's go back to about Saturday noon, which is right here.

[00:10:54]Okay, this shows again a bullseye in southern eastern Oregon about an inch of rain instead of two up in the northern Washington Cascades shows maybe less than a tenth of an inch of rain in Portland. But here's that Euro model which is wetter quarter of an inch in Portland 2 in again northern Washington Cascades over an inch of rain in Mount Hood. So anyway, that that kind of gives you an idea of what we're looking at. Um, I want to touch on the outlooks and this just backs up what I said a moment ago that now looking all the way through about the 20th day of June. It's a concerning is the word I will use um lack of rainfall. So this is updated today. Yeah, May 10th from Noah. This is the 8 to 10 day outlook. This is uh this is basically not this week but next week May 18th through the 24th. Notice how much of the country above normal the bullseye for below normal precipitation is well let me go is right here in Oregon you can see it gosh darn it it's not going to let me move my cursor in Oregon see the the the below normal and then if you go three to four weeks out so now this is the final week of May into the first week of June cools down the Oregon coast a little bit but basically keeps much of Oregon and Washington in an above normal temperature pattern gives us some hope for some rain because it removes us out of the dry bullseye. But we'll see. All right, let's go around the horn. Medford 79 right now. 91 tomorrow, 94 Tuesday.

[00:12:22]There's that warmup. Then a chance of showers from that first low on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling down somewhat.

[00:12:29]Okay, let's go up to Seattle. Monday, Tuesday, warming up near 70 up in Seattle tomorrow, near 80 on Tuesday at about 10 degrees to Portland's forecast.

[00:12:38]Chance of rain on Wednesday. Then absolutely with that secondary low expecting some rain in Seattle to develop Thursday, Friday, and probably a lingering shower chance on Saturday.

[00:12:47]We'll see how much we can muster. Bend first chance of rain shows up Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. That's it.

[00:12:54]Okay. 93 on Tuesday. Again, the the the warm day. How about Salem? Well, I I about 80 tomorrow. I It's got to be warmer than 83 on Tuesday. I don't know why they're going so low because even the the national blended model on Tuesday gives Portland 89 degrees and the American GFS model supports 90 degrees. So, we'll see. Cool down on Wednesday. Doesn't show a shower chance.

[00:13:18]It would be a slight shower chance. A rain chance on Wednesday better up into Portland. And then a chance of rain Thursday night into Friday and Saturday.

[00:13:25]Okay. All right. Uh let's go out to Pendleton. What do we got? 77 Monday, 86 Tuesday, 84 Wednesday. Cool down on Thursday. Not much of a rain chance up in the Columbia Basin. Okay. All right.

[00:13:39]Uh let's go up to Atoria. Rain chance shows up Wednesday. 74 on Tuesday. Maybe closer to 80. There's a rain. Once the rain chances start Wednesday, there's a rain chance all the way through Saturday. Although it's not expected to be much. North Bend doesn't even pick up much from that first low. That's interesting to me. All right. We'll see.

[00:13:59]We'll see. temperatures upper 50s, low 60s. Okay, here is my 7-day forecast for Portland. I think at least 80 tomorrow, maybe 82. I think at least upper 80s Tuesday, maybe 90. And then I have a kind of just a generic ongoing scattered shower threat Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Every single one of these 24-hour periods could see at least a trace or maybe a few showers that would be 5100s of an inch of rain. We saw the modeling really mostly favoring the first model, the GFS, southern and southeastern Oregon. The European model mainly favoring north of us up into Seattle. So, we'll see. If you have outdoor plans on any of these days, it could very easily be mostly dry with with only a one or two showers at some point during the day. I do dry us out on this coming Sunday. Okay. Uh, thank you for subscribing. If you haven't done so, please do so. It helps me out. You'll be notified when I post. I hope you enjoy these videos and I will talk to you soon.