4.6 Earthquake off Oregon Coast.. Quakes on this section further stress the South Cascadia area.

[00:00:01]All right. What's going on there, folks?

[00:00:03]Welcome back here to a Tuesday, July 21st, 2026. Here's the date. Um, let's see what we got here. Got some activity stirring up off the coast of Oregon here right now. Looks like a 4.6 earthquake out on the Blanco fracture zone. This is a strikelip boundary, and you can see the strike slip formations out here in the oceanic crest view. Uh this here is a spreading seafloor center fracture zone here that further stresses you guessed it down here across the southern end of the Cascadia subduction zone. So got a 4.6 earthquake not a big earthquake but further increasing the strain out here uh for the um southern end of the Cascadia that came in uh looks like at about 11:32 or so about uh 20 minutes ago it looks like. So, we'll have to check out the trimmer counts a little bit later on this evening once they come out. But, they have been elevated down here. I'll show you guys that real quick. We'll run over to the PNSN network and show you guys the uh slow slip event map. And yesterday, um we had a decent uptick here across the southern end with 377 slow slip events there. So, it's been uh been picking up a lot here across the southern end recently and also in the last oh last year. has been really ramping up here across the southern end, more so down south than up north. So, that's why sometimes we'll see partial ruptures out here, folks, of the Cascadia subduction zone. Uh, I know we have quite a few newer viewers out here, so I'm going to run over this real quick. It's a site called surviving cascadia.com.

[00:01:45]It looks like uh where'd we go?

[00:01:47]Hopefully, they didn't lose their um let me refresh this real quick.

[00:01:53]That one's not working for some reason.

[00:02:00]Huh. I wonder if they removed that because they did have a very interesting timeline. This still kind of shows you a lot on the Cascadia here uh where the trimmer accounts trimmer counts occur which is down deeper here uh underneath the area and we get the locked zone here that uh builds up stress and strain. Uh but I was looking for their timeline here where um the Cascadia timeline went to. Looks like they either moved it or removed it. It was a really interesting um little feature.

[00:02:42]Offshore earthquakes.

[00:02:46]I'll have to look into this and find out what's going on with it because they removed it. I'm sure they still have some um stuff here on the Cascadia, but I was wanting their timeline here because they had showed a uh a really neat and beneficial time frame on the Cascadia, how they get partial ruptures down here uh in between major ruptures. And the last major rupture, you know, the full rupture was back in 1700 when we had an estimated 9.0 you know, uh, earthquake here across the entirety of the Cascadia. And it can get probably a little bit larger than that as well, far as the maximum magnitude, but we do see these partial ruptures of oh up to about a 8.1 8.2 down here across the southern end that occur more frequently than the uh, total margin rupture. That's why when you see these news articles out here, they post uh oh, the Cascadia subduction zone is uh uh not necessarily overdue because average reoccurrence intervals run 500 years. Well, technically that's if you go back like 10,000 years or so back when the plates were probably uh they were different out here. the slip rate was probably a little bit slower because we did have inter intervals that ran around 300 to 500 years. But if you go back in the last 5,000 years, uh there's been no events that's lasted, you know, 500 years. It runs between about 250 uh to about 300 years or so. So, we're um you know, and then you get these partial ruptures that occur uh more frequently. And we still have we have yet to see one of these, but I I'm kind of curious as to what happened to their website here. Not uh not showing it, but down here it shows the potential reoccurrence interval. Um which shows about 230 years it looks like on average 220 years the southern end.

[00:04:57]But uh yeah, interesting. I don't know what happened to it here. It looks like they completely removed that section.

[00:05:06]Probably getting quite a few views on it and asking uh what's going on. Yeah, but why why post an indepth um study and analysis just to have it removed? You know, what what was the point of that? because their website here that I have linked it should show 37 in 100 37 in 50 years 37% chance I believe in 50 years but that site is uh the page is completely gone here now huh interesting right why why do that why go out and make a a really decent article and have it Uh, might have to reach out here and email this indiv. Actually, I did um a couple years ago when I discovered this website, but uh um they never messaged me back.

[00:06:04]Anyway, uh we'll check back in on that a little bit later. See if I can find out what's going on with that page. But still watching the southern end here of the Cascadia. Got a little activity there that should further stress this area as trimmer counts go. But we'll have to check that out a little bit later on this evening. Um, looking back here across the uh Bay Area, couple smaller quakes out there today, but really nothing major.

[00:06:29]Um, little cluster there along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault. Southern California looks a little spotty. Not a whole lot going on.

[00:06:38]Uh, Nevada looks like we're starting to stir up a little bit out here, but really nothing. Uh, I don't see anything major going on. Some movement here across Utah. Looks like some increasing activity across this mountain range up to Yellowstone.

[00:06:52]Uh looks like another earthquake early this morning of 1.1. So we will double check that and see what we got from the uh USGS official site here.

[00:07:04]Looks like that may have been up in the northwestern corner. So we'll run over here real quick. There's that little earthquake of a 1.1. Uh looks like maybe another smaller one here earlier this morning as well. But for the most part, as you can see, not a whole lot of uh earthquake activity out there right now.

[00:07:25]Oil fields still got their earthquakes out there. A little earthquake out in South Carolina as well. Looks like a little 1.4 from last night, but the eastern portion of country looks pretty quiet. seen a decent uptick here of earthquakes across the Atlantic Ocean here uh in the last 24 hours uh in a broad region as well. This is a um an area that separates, right? The plates are separating and the last time we had a decent separation event was down here and then one day later we had that 7.3 here across the middle America trench.

[00:07:59]So, I do think that the strain elevates out here across the Caribbean plate, the middle American trench, Mexico, uh, following activity out here in the Atlantic, and there's been a decent swarm uh, of activity. I don't see any any huge uptick going on there for now.

[00:08:15]Still seeing some aftershock activity there in the uh, the Mexico area from that sevenpointer 7.3 that struck here a few days back.

[00:08:26]Looks like the Philippines having a little aftershock activity as well. 5.1.

[00:08:30]This is where that 7.8 struck here. Oh, a number of weeks back now. Been well over a month already.

[00:08:38]Still seeing some aftershock activity and that will definitely continue.

[00:08:42]Philippines area showing a little uptick today across the Manila trench northward. uh coming to a halt there about the uh Taiwan area. But we are seeing that kind of squeeze in here across that western side, southwestern side at least here of the Filipino plate. Japan still seeing some smaller quake activity up there.

[00:09:01]A number of smaller quakes there underneath North Island. Nothing big going on there for now, but still got to watch that.

[00:09:09]South America, some movement happening north and south. Looks like a pair of fours north and south here and a little cluster in between rest of the planet. Some smaller quake activity out there around the Mediterranean. I don't see anything big going on.

[00:09:24]Uh largest magnitude earthquake. See what we got here in the last 24 hours.

[00:09:29]It's going to go to 5.6 here in the Kerdc Islands right there along that subduction zone. those arrows pointing inland or underneath the area indicating that subduction zone. Kind of like their map layout here. Here's the uh legend key that shows you what type of boundaries those are.

[00:09:49]Uh let's see here. Yeah, it's a decent Has that been reviewed yet? Let's see.

[00:09:54]Yeah, it has been reviewed. I completely ignore this aftershock forecast because it means really nothing. Absolutely nothing. I've seen that time and time again be completely wrong where one day later they'll have a much bigger event than what took place. You know, the Ridgerest sequence was a prime example.

[00:10:15]Uh space weather activity. Let's see what we got here on the sun. We're stepping up a little bit into the seaf flare and even mflare category overnight. Uh let's go back to last Kevin changed this here. This was 24 hours. I like the 24h hour uh mark there, Kevin. Well, it's right here. It could open my eyes. Yeah, because when you first go to this, this had shown I think just the last six hours. So, he swapped that. That's good. Past 24 hours. Here is the main feature. Past six hours if you want that option. And then, of course, past three days. But notice things have kind of stepped up here in the last couple days. That's because we have a well one active sunspot that's still flaring. Look at that. currently flaring a center disc of the sun looking right at the planet.

[00:11:02]That is 4483 or 4493 and it is growing. It's definitely grown here overnight. Look at that middle complexity here. A lot of different colors indicating the positive negative territory and that's why this thing looks like a probably going to pop off a decent sized flare here pretty soon. And it is directly facing the planet. It's produced uh looks like a little mflare here this morning.

[00:11:31]Did Kevin cover that? Let's see here.

[00:11:36]This is from yesterday. So, it' be I think the second or third inflare that the sunspot has produced. it is growing rapidly and those are the ones that you kind of want to watch out for because they can really amplify amplify really quick and produce uh you know even some stronger flares such as X flares.

[00:11:54]Uh so let's take a look here at these other sunspots which are they got some giant coverage area but man they've weakened drastically um since the last time they were out here a couple weeks ago. This area is just scattered and spread out. I really don't think that we're going to see much of anything from those two sunspots. But this one right here definitely uh want to watch this one again. It's currently sizzling. You know, it just look at that bright feature here. It just it really wants to pop off a decent size flare, I think. So, we'll keep an eye on that.

[00:12:25]The flare threat is continuing to go up a little bit here. 5% chance there for the X flare. Mflair at 55% chance.

[00:12:33]Cflare at 99% chance. And again, we're up there in the seaflair category, just sizzling with seaf flares. That's a sign there that uh the instability is happening and we could see that uh flare up here even further.

[00:12:47]Uh far as the aurora activity goes, we do have a well chronal hole facing us.

[00:12:51]Aurora activity potentially may stir up over the next couple nights. Um this is for tonight, the aurora forecast, KP index up around five, which would be a G1 class storm. Um, we'll see if that comes in or not.

[00:13:06]Just I I think it's too thin of a chronal hole. Yeah, it's got some thicker areas up north and south, but this was filling in here where that sunspot was or is uh here in the last couple days. So, I don't think we're going to get much of anything tonight, but we'll see. We'll see. Solar Wind dashboard speed up there around 412.

[00:13:27]Uh, I don't see any arrival yet of any um of the high-speed solar wind stream that's supposedly supposed to hit us tonight, you know, from that chronal hole. But we'll see what happens. Uh, BTBZ component here, not favorable for auroras should they uh should we get that high-speed solar windstream. It's up above the zero here into the positive territory. You want this uh BZ component here uh similar to what we've seen um back here four hours or so ago. Plasma density not a whole lot kicking up.

[00:14:05]Kind of neat neat little upgrade there to the solar ham site. That's solarham.com by the way for space weather activity.

[00:14:16]Uh there's a lot of space weather, you know, pages that I like to use and look at, but I Kevin's got a simple simplified layout. Um if you want articles of interest, then spaceweather.com is probably the better site when it comes to um indepth articles about what's going on here on the sun and whatnot. Or if you want a space necklace, I'm good on that.

[00:14:39]I'm good. Uh no major close approaches there.

[00:14:46]quite a few new ones out there listed up on the map, but I don't see anything that's uh any cause of concern out there for now.

[00:14:56]I'll double check the other site here as well.

[00:15:01][cough and clears throat] Excuse me.

[00:15:04]Um yeah, I don't see much of anything out here. This one's newly discovered July 19th, just two days ago. Coming in 9.6 lunar distances. That's a That's kind of an odd angle.

[00:15:21]How big is that? Oh, it's just 28 meter uh diameter rock, but still something like that overhead would make a probably a decent sonic boom there as it explodes up into the atmosphere. But that uh a distance away from the planet there, 9.6.

[00:15:39]And the moon here is right there in that uh kind of a light blue circle around the Earth. So, it's going to be a ways away from the planet, but pretty neat to see. I do like this website.

[00:15:58]All right. Uh let's see. Anything else going on here? 4.6.

[00:16:03]Check the seismograph stations. I'm going to work on this a little bit today, so I'll have to bring this down.

[00:16:09]Uh, as far as the um live waveforms go, I'm going to create um I got it implemented yesterday. I'm going to create a a scrolling buff uh scrolling buffer is what it's called where this instead of it being a little choppy how as it updates.

[00:16:29]See how it's a little choppy on all the seismograph stations, it's just going to continuously scroll at a slow pace without that jolt in the uh in the waveform there. So, I think it'll look a little bit better for visual. And then once I get that going, then I'm going to implement um a lot of cool extra features here on this app. I'm going to add a menu bar or a u a button layout up here that's going to show um a tsunami button. And if it's green, it means there's no tsunamis. If it's red or purple, it's a threat. You know, a tsunami threat would be purple.

[00:17:08]Uh then that would come up flashing purple as far as the tsunami button goes and you would just click on it and it would take you to the latest um tsunami threat as to why that threat was issued and where it's at and whatnot. So I think it's going to be really cool. It's just getting started, but there's a few a few things I got to work out here with the waveforms um before I move on. I I don't want to get too far ahead and and I I just got to perfect the uh perfect the data that's coming in at the moment.

[00:17:42]Everything looks um pretty quiet for now. I don't see much of anything going on there on the seismograph stations.

[00:17:52]Alrighty. Well, have a good one, folks.

[00:17:54]Uh stay safe out there. Got a number of five-pointers out here, I would say, in the last 24 hours. A a decent little uptick there. We got six, seven, eight, nine. Nine fivep pointers. That's a a decent little uptick. So, we'll cover this and more a little bit later on in tonight's update. Again, if you are watching the live stream, you'll you'll see the waveform go down, but then I'll bring it back up uh once I finish my coding and test it out. Have a good one.

[00:18:21]We'll see you guys later.