SHOCKING POLL: Democrats LEAD BY SEVEN in TEXAS Senate Race

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back to today's video.

[00:00:02]Today is Thursday, May 28th, 2026, and today we are going to be talking about, you guessed it, Texas. Now, before this video gets started, I want to apologize if my voice sounds a little bit different, a little bit more scratchy. I am currently sick. I also have allergies and it is peak pollen in Boston up here.

[00:00:19]I think it's going to be like this for quite some time. So, fortunately, shipping down to Washington DC for the summer sometime soon, but right now it's getting the better of me. Uh, and so I apologize for that. But we are going to get through this video together and we're going to talk about this brand new survey out of the state of Texas that let me get ahead of you on this. With a recalled vote of Trump plus 14, the exact margin that Donald Trump won the state by in 2024 shows James Terico with a 7point advantage statewide against Ken Paxton in a survey that really is shocking many people in Texas. And it should. This is a data point that I find to be quite interesting and quite revealing about just the chances of a Democratic contender in Texas in 2026. I know what it feels like to look at something and think there's no way this data point is right. I mean, we are the same group of people who all saw the aneltzer poll happen in 2024. But let me tell you just a bit about the circumstances surrounding 2026 and why I do believe although I think that Telerico is ultimately the underdog in this race has absolutely more than a fighting chance at winning the Senate race now that Ken Paxton has won this nomination. The circumstances surrounding Texas in the 2026 election remind me a lot of the 2018 midterms, except this time, Democrats are one actually investing and really paying attention to this election. The 2018 midterms were largely surrounded in the aftermath of the 2016 election where Republicans were competing and winning in states they hadn't won in decades.

[00:01:51]states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that had been won by Republicans 24 to 28 years ago and never all three together since 28 years when George HW Bush won his election in 1988.

[00:02:05]But underneath all of it was this reversion in support in some of these key states, states like Texas and George Arizona that saw themselves shifting to the left despite an overwhelming national shift to the right. Now, in 2024, Texas shifted to the right relative to 2020 and did so by quite a degree. Relative to the national average, though, Texas was voting about uh nine points, 10 points to the right of the national average in the uh 2020 election in 2024. It was more about, you know, roughly about 12 points to the right of the nation. So, not great for Democrats and it certainly didn't did not inspire hope for them in Texas in 2026. And being honest with you, looking at my own prediction from the beginning of, you know, this entire cycle was that Texas was a safe red state. I thought John Cornin or Ken Paxton would surely win the nomination and that Democrats wouldn't even contest it. After all, it was a pretty monumental shift from 2020 to 2024, even if relative to the nation, the shift wasn't all that great. But what we found very quickly was that Latino voters nationwide were a big part of Donald Trump's winning coalition in 2024. You can see it very adamantly in Texas that we were starting to see cracks in support nationally in terms of support for the president and his political party. And now today it's gotten tremendously worse. Donald Trump is down on the national average by 24 percentage points and specifically one in five uh one in four rather Latino voters do not approve enough so of the job that Donald Trump is doing that they say adamantly they would never vote for him again if given the option in any future election. That's five times the rate of regret vote for Kla Harris from the 2024 cycle. And a lot of that makes sense. But how does that tie into Texas?

[00:03:49]Well, let me show you just exactly what shifts we saw in Texas in the 2024 election. A lot of it came from majority Latino counties. Yes, we did see a red shift across the state, but no more by five, six, seven points across the state in these rural areas. in the more populous ones, maybe a few percentage points, but counteracted by the suburbs shifting to the left despite an overwhelming national right-ward shift.

[00:04:14]The big reason for this improvement for Donald Trump was Latino voters. Not to mention that the circumstances of the 2026 election aren't just made by the national environment, that Democrats have the largest generic ballot lead of any political party dating back to 2010 at this point in time in any midterm cycle. But it's also to the candidates that make the circumstance. And in 2026, Democrats have gotten really lucky.

[00:04:39]Looking at this election, James Telerico is a on the net favorable politician in Texas. That's remarkably un, you know, impossible, right? We see with Ken Paxton down 26 statewide. Even Trump down 12. Even Greg Abbott, who is the most popular Republican politician in the state, is down by 11 points. Ter Rico on the statewide average is up by about six. Now Terico still has to face a lot of of ad arrangements against him from the GOP. A lot of Talofo type of messaging and framework that's coming out of Trump's RNC and the NRCC and the NRSC actually uh and Ken Paxton's team.

[00:05:18]But to the degree that it will be effective will be seen. But Ken Paxton doesn't have much he can recover. Just 30% of Texas voters say that they view him favorably. I mean, that is remarkably, remarkably low. And it's not exactly something that 6 months of time can change all that much. A lot of voters have heard quite a bit about Ken Paxton. When you see just how many voters, uh, 52% say they've heard a lot about Ken Paxton. 32% say they've heard some things about Ken Paxton. About 22% more of Texas voters say they've heard mostly negative things compared to mostly positive for Ken Paxton in the context of everything they've heard about him. And not to mention too that the primary here, although grueling in terms of ad spending and character assassination against Ken Paxton, did ultimately end up with a massive Ken Paxton victory. But here's the thing that matters. In terms of what we saw in terms of ad spending against Kent Paxton, $100 million put against Kent Paxton in just the first round. I don't even know what the final expenditure amount will be for this runoff. But the point is that John Cornin in the first round of voting spent about $110 per vote in that election. Ken Paxton spent just five. And now here's the thing.

[00:06:33]Money was always going to be an issue for the Democratic party. It was an issue for Better AO. It was an issue for Democrats in Texas in the past and the national party never really invested in it, but they see an opening. They see an opportunity due to a combination of factors. Decreased turnout in the Trump areas, uh, changing in support amongst Latino voters, star candidate on the left, super weak candidate on the right.

[00:06:54]I mean, you're talking about Ken Paxton who even historically pre-impachement, pre all these negative circumstances, uh, did not have, you know, that much stacked against him and still did not perform that well. It is typical that in elections like these, for instance, the attorney general's race in the state of Texas, you found that Ken Paxton won by under 10 points. This is alongside the same ballot that Greg Abbott is winning by 12. This is alongside the same ballot that all the other Republican races were overwhelmingly conservative. But Ken Paxton, pre-impachement, pre- extrammarital affairs, the accusations, pre all these other things that have been brought forth against him, everything, right? Indictment after indictment, mugsh shot, whatever it was in that election, he did not find himself losing, but he certainly did not show an impressive feat. 2022 should have been a phenomenal year for candidates like Ken Paxton, but it wasn't. It was not something that leaves anything to show Republicans to think about. Think about just some of the other random races, right? Comproller of public accounts. Republicans won that by 16. Or commissioner of general land office, right? Races that no one really thinks about, no one really cares about.

[00:08:07]But here's the thing. Don Buckingham, the Republican, won by 14. Ken Paxton is winning by under 10. That is important context. Ken Paxton is an underperformer. And in this year, I can guarantee you the national average will be 10 points to the left of 2022. Shift Texas by that much, Greg Abbott holds on. Every other Republican statewide official holds on. Ken Paxton loses.

[00:08:33]He's not exactly remarkable. And I think that the 2024 election, although a good year for Republicans on the presidential, also reveals quite a bit about what we might be able to expect in the Senate race this year. When you look at the 2024 election, you'll see that the Senate numbers there were not great for the Republicans compared to the presidential. Donald Trump won nationally by 1.5% that translated to a 14-point victory in Texas, but the Senate race was just 8.5%.

[00:09:02]Here's the kicker. If the national average shifts by as much as the generic ballot is predicting compared to 2024 when Republicans won by 2.7%, that 11point shift is enough to shift Texas blue in the Senate race in 2024.

[00:09:21]Not much else drastically changes. John Tester holds on in Montana. Shared Brown wins in Ohio. Bob Casey wins in Pennsylvania. You still see Florida red.

[00:09:29]Still see Missouri red. Nebraska goes to Dan Osborne. But Texas is the kicker. It isn't some massive change. It's a shift that is comparable to what we're seeing on the national average. And yet a Colin all red Ted Cruz matchup would end up with the senator calling all red. Well, believe me, I do think that when you see data points like these that show Taller Rico with such an advantage, seven points is not something to scoff at, especially in a Trump plus 14 recalled vote here. But it is something that although I do not think any circumstance ends up with Terico winning by seven, I do think he can win this race for all the reasons that we've laid out. And I think that that's what this data is revealing. I don't think Ken Paxton would ever get just 38% of the vote. I don't think James Telerico is going to be capped at 45%. I do believe that a lot of these undecided voters have time to make their decision. And I do think many of them are worried about the midterm elections uh and are worried about who they're going to vote for because based on party affiliation and based on past voting history probably want to vote Republican but take pause with what they're seeing from Ken Paxton. And it's enough so that the pause is making them consider voting for Taller Rico. And as they look to November, as they look to this midterm cycle, there is no better candidate positioned for really any race like this besides Taler Rico. Democrats have gotten really lucky with people like Pelola and Sharon Brown running for office, Roy Cooper running for office, Graham Platner has been, you know, fortunate enough on the Dem side to right now maintain that advantage. But here's the thing that matters. The Republican opponent can make or break an election. Ken Paxton and Dan Sullivan are not alike. Ken Paxton and Michael Watley are not alike. Those are the Alaska and North Carolina Republican uh nominees. Ken Paxton and John Houston are not alike. Ken Paxton and Susan Collins could not be further alike.

[00:11:31]These Republicans in office that these S tier Democrats are facing are facing standard normmy Republicans and in some cases electoral juggernauts like Susan Collins. Ken Paxton is far from it. So if there was ever a perfect combination of factors to lead to a shocking Democratic victory in Texas, one that would mark the end of a 30-year drought of losses for the Democrats. it would be Telerico and only against Ken Paxton.

[00:12:01]That's why we knew that John Cornin by the numbers was the more electable Republican because even the preliminary data showed exactly that. And if Terico really is leading Ken Paxton by this amount at this point, there is room to grow for both of them. But a much easier pathway to 50, believe it or not, for Torico if this holds up. Now, keep in mind public policy polling is a Democratic aligned pollster. I do think that they have a bit on their average here that skews in favor of the left.

[00:12:31]But I do also understand that they still have their margin of error. They still have methodology and actually in the most recent year and a half have been one of the few pollsters to capture instances like mom Donnie uh in the state and do have some very interesting data points and also too in the primary accurately predicted that Talerico would win his primary race when no one else was able to meet that moment. And so I think that while Texas is still a Republican state and I do think Ken Paxton is the favorite today, do I think that Telerico can take him down? That answer absolutely yes. If the president's approval rating continues to dwindle at the rate we've been seeing over the past 6 months, he will reach election day very possibly with a negative 30 approval rating. At that point, Terarico is the favorite. And I think that it is important to note that this midterm cycle has only seen worse and worse numbers for the president.

[00:13:21]Whether it's the generic ballot, whether it's the national approval rating, whether it's a poll that you see from Univision or Telmundo, when it comes down to Latino voters in the national average and an abandonment of what we're seeing for Republican support in this election, there is no good news for them. There are no silver linings and this year is going to be a great year for the left for all of the affforementioned reasons. Now, Terico may not win this Senate race by the margin the public policy polling is suggesting, but the fact that he is even competitive is newsworthy. Beto was not competitive in 2022. And all red for a period of time looked like he might have been. But if Harris had actually outperformed Biden at the top of the ticket like some were expecting, I was not in my final prediction, but I did think that she would win the election incorrectly. There is that understanding that if she had outperformed Biden as some had expected, Alred would be in the Senate today and this conversation would look a whole lot different. But here's the thing. Donald Trump won and Ted Cruz won. But the differential in margin is revealing and it is indicative of a larger problem for the GOP with their Senate GOP candidates being so damn unlikable. And in cases like this, it can make or break an election. And that's exactly what this data is telling us. We'll have to wait and see. I don't know exactly what will happen in Texas, but I'm not confident on the Republican side like I was a year ago. And I think that when you look at the data from a strictly analytical point of view, it is quite revealing about just how bad of a position Texas Republicans are in contrasted with where they should be in a state as red as Texas that hasn't gone to the Democrats in any statewide election, barring a random one-off race, since 1994.

[00:15:05]Just something to think about. Texas with some groundbreaking numbers out this morning. A seven-point advantage for James Telerico. Do I think he wins by that much? No. Do I think he's the favorite today? No. But it shows that he certainly has the fighting chance and has a real possibility. All because Republicans nominated Ken Paxton and a combination of factors that could lead to the perfect storm that is a Democrat being elected to any race in Texas, much less a US Senate race that could actually happen this November with James Torico at the top of the ticket. So, thank you guys so much for watching this video. Make sure to comment down suggestions below. Subscribe on the left if you haven't already, and check out the Instagram and Twitter. At the bottom left of the screen, there's also a Discord server for you to go ahead and join. On the screen, there's a video for you to watch, and then a playlist for my 2026 Senate election analysis videos.

[00:15:52]Again, thank you guys so much for watching, and I will see you all tomorrow.