U.S.-Iran ceasefire is a 'bad deal for Israel,' former ambassador explains why

[00:00:00]Ambassador, so glad you could be with us. So, Israel not involved, Israeli leadership rejecting this deal. Is this a bad deal for Israel?

[00:00:10]>> It's a bad deal for Israel on two fronts. Um, politically, it's a terrible deal for Prime Minister Netanyahu, uh who claimed um that he would uh not only defeat Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but there would be a regime change in Iran, they would do away with Iran's ballistic missiles, with the nuclear threat, and uh all of Iran's proxies, and um frankly, none of those goals have been achieved. So, politically, it's very difficult for Netanyahu as he moves towards elections. He's being attacked by those in his own coalition, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and others, and he's being attacked by opposition leaders. But, it's also uh a bad deal for Israel uh in terms of the fact that um Iran does pose a real threat to Israel and always has, not only through its proxies, but with the possibility of gaining uh a nuclear weapon threat. And it was never a a major threat to the United States, um and it wasn't an imminent threat to Israel when the United States and uh Israel attacked Iran, but it is a threat to Israel, and the fact that uh frankly, after all of this time and all of the weapons used, uh that nothing has been achieved, um is uh is is a is a big problem for Israel.

[00:01:45]>> So, Trump said something to the effect of don't blow it. He was referring to Israel and Iran, saying, "If you attack one another, you could undermine this deal.

[00:01:58]Do you think Israel will listen to Trump on that directive? And And where do you think the state of the relationship is right now between these two allies?

[00:02:10]>> I think the problem now is not Iran attacking Israel and Israel attacking Iran. The problem is Lebanon.

[00:02:17]>> Yeah.

[00:02:18]>> When the Prime Minister of Pakistan announced the deal, he said that it involved an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, and he mentioned Lebanon.

[00:02:32]And if Israel does not abide by that and continues to attack, especially if it attacked Beirut, then I think you'd have a major problem with this deal because Iran would basically be saying to Trump, "You haven't abide by your end of the deal."

[00:02:55]On the other hand, if Hezbollah were to continue to attack Israel, then the United States would say to Iran, "You haven't abide by your end of the deal by controlling Hezbollah." So, I think that's where the problem lies. I think um I think Israel and Iran want to avoid getting into a missile battle between themselves.

[00:03:18]>> When you lay it out like that, Ambassador, one can't help but wonder if this ceasefire extension of the ceasefire can stick.

[00:03:28]>> Well, it's actually not going to be fully implemented until it's signed on Friday.

[00:03:34]So, we've got to get till Friday, hopefully with no exchanges of fire on any fronts.

[00:03:41]The Israeli Defense Minister has unfortunately said that Israel will not be withdrawing from Lebanon.

[00:03:48]Let's just hope that And uh not withdrawing is accompanied by no firing of missiles into Lebanon.

[00:03:57]Um and um uh we're really going to have to wait and see. Um the details um of the agreement um have been very sparse. We really don't know what's happening behind the scenes except that the blockade is to be lifted. And um that uh toll-free flow of uh shipping is to begin. Um but uh whether or not uh there are deals with respect to to Iran's funds, whether or not sanctions are going to be lifted, when they're going to be lifted, and of course there is the negotiations on the nuclear issues which will come during the 60-day period following Friday.

[00:04:41]>> Yeah, toll-free on the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:04:44]Uh we heard that from Ursula von der Leyen. That's something we're all watching for. Um the former Canadian ambassador to Israel, John Allen, thank you so much for your analysis and your time spent with us this morning. We do