Did Delimitation Play A key role In NDA's Clean Sweep In Assam?

Añadido: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]in which the number of seats in the assembly didn't increase. that remain at 126. But there was a fundamental redrawing of these constituencies and a lot of political observers and you know when the whole delimitation storm was blowing up in the country a couple of weeks back um Assam was held up as an example by the opposition and by uh political observers as an example of I quote them gerrymandering. Okay, which means rejoining constituencies to favor a particular political [music] party.

[00:00:27]Right? So the elections in four states are over. And um when we speak of Assam, it was a clean sweep for the NDA.

[00:00:36]Joining us today is Sukrita Barwa who has been extensively covering the elections in Assam. Thank you Sukrita for taking out time for us and uh we saw a massive victory this time for NDA. It was 102. Um how do you see this and if you can give us an idea of how it panned out on the ground?

[00:00:59]Right. So um you know the BJP first came to power in Assam a decade back. So 2016 was the first time that a BJP government was elected to Assam. In fact it was the first time that a BJP government was elected into any northeastern state and uh it was subsequently reelected in 2021 and this was this is the third consecutive win for them. But in the last two elections um so the Assam Legislative Assembly has a total of 126 seats and in both 2016 and 2021 the BJP won 60 seats both elections. So it was short of the halfway mark it did have an absolute majority and it's formed governments with um its regional allies.

[00:01:40]So it has been allied with the aamo por the AGP both times and it has also formed alliances with borolandbased parties. Um so in 2016 it was allied with the boraland people's front the BPF. In 2021 it shifted to the United People's Party Liberal, the UPPL. Um and this time it was an alliance again with the AGP and the BPF. But in the last two times it needed a coalition to form a government. This is the first time that the BJP has uh um cinched an absolute majority and not only has it cinched an absolute majority, it has gone from 60 seats to a total of 82 seats on its own.

[00:02:20]And it had it had contested in 90 seats.

[00:02:24]So it lost in only eight of the seats in which it didn't um in which it uh in which it competed and along with its allies. So the AGP got another 10 seats.

[00:02:34]Um the BPF got another 10. So this has taken them across the 100 mark. So now they're at 102 which is um and I mean in the last couple of decades is an unprecedented mandate. Um before the BJP came to power in Sam we had 15 years of Congress rule since 2001 under the leadership of the late go. Um but the mandate that the BJP uh led ND has received now surpasses that of the previous >> this is this is being said it's a recorded you know it's a history maker what BJP has achieved so on that note what did you think worked in because there were multiple issues playing on the ground during the elections and they were coming up they were recording issues that were coming up multiple times and we all saw what happened between Gor of and Himatis So Sarma, so what do you think worked in favor of the NDA, especially the BJP gaining such a majority?

[00:03:33]>> For me, during the course of my reporting and my reading, it had always been pretty clear to me that the NDA is coming back for a third term. But like I wrote in a story yesterday is that the question was by how much. Okay, what was that number going to be? And there are a number of things that you know the BJP has banked on, what most people know the most about is polarization. So uh you know uh strong line I mean hardline policies that the government has um adopted and its rhetoric and policies uh targeting Bengali origin Muslim communities of state you know an anti-infiltration pitch as they call it.

[00:04:10]So that was one wing the other was um focus on development projects. So there has been a massive companion of resources um infrastructure projects you know mega roads and bridge projects that's something else that they uh they emphasized on considerably and the other were um beneficiary schemes so cash transfer schemes which are unprecedented in scale and reach in the state especially um cash transfer schemes benefiting women um beneficiaries. So you know none of these factors are absolute but these were factors that were work a combination of these factors working in favor of the BJP along with the individual personality factor of Himtoma.

[00:04:52]Uh this was the first election where he is seeking re-election as a chief minister because when the BJP first came to power in 2016 he was not the chief minister.

[00:05:02]Yeah.

[00:05:03]>> Yeah. In 2021, the BJP didn't campaign with a chief ministerial phase. And if you recall, there was almost a week of uncertainty after the BJP won whether it would be Sonomal or Kurma who would be the new chief minister. But this time though, the BJP again, you know, they don't declare chief ministerial faces.

[00:05:21]Perma was the undisputed face of the campaign and he led it front and center.

[00:05:24]So, it was a combination of these factors that were working for the BJP.

[00:05:27]So, like I said, it was pretty clear that the BJP was going to win. But there is another factor which um I believe has played a critical role in pushing the number so high. So you know taking it from 60 to 82 taking the coalition's number from 76 to 102 and that is delimitation.

[00:05:45]>> If you can explain it to us how the delimitation played on the ground.

[00:05:49]>> So Assam went through a delimitation process in 2023 in which the number of seats in the assembly didn't increase.

[00:05:56]It remained at 126 but there was a fundamental redrawing of these constituencies and a lot of political observers and you know when the whole delimitation storm was blowing up in the country a couple of weeks back um Assam was held up as an example by the opposition and by uh political observers as an example of I quote them gerrymandering okay which means redrawing constituencies to favor a particular political party right so um in Assam um you know Assam has a significant Muslim population uh and a large um you know chunk of them are Bengali origin Muslims who are you know repeatedly targeted and who have been for you know it has been a contentious issue for a long time. So the number of constituencies where um this population would play a decisive role in elections or in other words where a Muslim candidate could win was around 35. Okay.

[00:06:52]But uh delimitation after delimitation the constituencies have been carved out in such a way that in many places we see you know very specific carving out of constituencies in a way where you know belts where minority voters live have been clubbed together and concentrated in a smaller number of constituencies.

[00:07:09]So um the number of constituencies where they play a decisive role has been reduced from 35 to around 22. Now um the reason that you know this um in addition to this uh you know we've seen almost a binary kind of voter behavior in Assam.

[00:07:28]So the BJP has won 82 seats uh and like I said like the alliance has won a total of 102 seats. Okay. Um and these seats uh barring two seats one of which is noisa which has been won by the Congress candidate Joy Praash Das and um the SIPs seat which has won by Congress ally Raj Doll's um candidate.

[00:07:52]Barring these two seats the NDA has won every single seat in Assam where ethnic Asamese um Hindu voters tribal voters constitute a bulk of the voters. So in other words, all Hindu or tribal seats have been won by the NDA except for these two seats now and um Sip Saga. In on the other hand, like I said, the Congress has won only 19 MLAs, has won in only 19 seats. They're going to have 19 MLAs of whom 18 have been elected from uh these so-called minority seats with Muslim leaders. So like Muslim MLAs basically. So there's almost a binary voter pattern and apart from the 19 um candidates who have won from the congress the only other non-na candidates who have won are two from badrudin aal's aiutf who have again won from minority belts one of the candidates who has won is aal himself and um another candidate from the raj doll who has won from being again a minority constituency another Muslim MLA and one TMCA Sherman and Ali was again one from a so you know we can see also a widespread consolidation of minority voters behind the congress like binary behavior because the AIUTF which has a strong support base which used to have a strong support base amongst Bengali and Muslims had 116 seats in 2021 and that has come down to just two this time >> so like we have spoken about NDA definitely but you know the Congress when we speak about it its performance has just gone down and it's been worse compared to however it was in 2021 or even before that. It's not even comparable.

[00:09:42]What did not work out for the Congress?

[00:09:44]What do you think went wrong for the Congress?

[00:09:46]>> So the so the 2021 uh election itself was a you know seen as a pretty grim uh situation for the Congress. In fact, the Congress has faced setback after setback, you know, since 2015, which is when Hima had left the Congress um and joined the BJP and you know, a whole pottery of leaders who are close to him left the Congress with him and he is largely you know this it is this shift of Congress key congress leaders to the BJP which is widely believed to have you know helped engineered the BJP's rise in Assam and over the years there's been a steady erosion of leaders including you know most prominently before the Assam election produ Bordoy who was one of the tallest leaders who continued to remain in the Congress through all these years.

[00:10:30]So you know the Congress has been steadily facing setbacks in the 2021 election. So um there you know for there's a region in Assam which we call upper and northern Assam which is where which is you know known as something of an Asamese heartland. You know a lot of these ethnic Asamese and tribal communities live there and in the 2021 election there were around there were 42 seats from this region. Congress had won only five and the Rajod doll had won once OK. So that was seen as you know very grim situation a wipe out of the congress from this so you know heartland and this time the situation is so much more bleak they've won only one seat out of 43 seats because now the number has been increased because of the limitation they've completely been booted out um they've not won a single tribal seat you know and um so you know the and it had consciously tried very hard to reverse its fortunes in this particular region upper Assam and northern Assam it had forged an alliance with party and with the within. So they were trying to kind of and you know in 2021 they were allied with the AIUDF. So they discarded the AIUDF as a partner to you know be to be more appealing basically to >> on that note. Do you think that if they would have allied with AIUDF this time things would be a little different?

[00:11:54]>> They were very categorical that that was not an option. they you know in 2021 it it it they in their view it really worked in their disadvantage because though they had the numbers you know because um the AIUF had 11 and and the congress had also you know most of their MLAs were from you know these minority bills but it lost that um you know the memland uh and tribal voters and that you know was something that they wanted to reverse but you know we've seen that that has completely you know and more than ever, you know, they've completely been uh pushed into um the image of a party that only represents minority interests, which is something that they were actually trying to reverse, which in fact, you know, um a lot of minority voters felt alienated from the Congress before because a lot of people felt that, you know, the Congress didn't adequately um um raise their voice when say things like push backs were taking place and widespread encro I mean evictions were taking place and that is something because I mean you know Congress has had been very cautious about it because it didn't want to alienate um Hindu asse voters and tribal voters but none of these things worked out and of course the biggest evidence of that I mean the you know the the roundness the soundness of the Congress defeat is evidenced in the defeat of Gorokoy because you know it has been seen in the past that he has the personal charisma to pull off you know a big win which he did in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. won from the Jad parliamentary seat but this time he lost from the Jorhad assembly seat which is part of his own parliamentary constituency and he was um he was entering state politics for the first time but he was also the Congress's chief ministerial phase he was the leader of the anti-BJP alliance and he um is the bearer of Toro's legacy so you know people thought that that might sail him through even as an individual you know not the party but even that hasn't been the case >> okay thank you so Sukrita for your time and um keep updating us like this with all the latest news from Assam. Um for more news and updates keep watching Indian Express online.