Water Crisis in the Southwest- Tony Heller

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]What's up everybody? Just want to take a quick second and let people know that I am self-supported. Uh I now put all of my episodes on Substack uh for paid subscribers. I put them up early and then 24 hours uh later I release them to the public on all my platforms. Uh I also have uh Venmo, PayPal, Cash App, Buy Me a Coffee, uh Zel, uh PO Box, and I don't think Oh, Locals, Patreon.

[00:00:26]And all of these uh all of the links are in the show notes of every single episode I put out. So, look forward to uh continuing to um you know provide great conversations and thank you all for your continued support.

[00:00:46]Tony, good to see you. Thanks for doing this. Um you know what? I I think it'd be appropriate to start off if you don't mind because it's been a while uh since you've been on my show. This is your third time actually that you and I have spoken. I I looked up before we started recording. Uh but if you don't mind just doing a little bit of your background and then I want to I want to share something with you. So if you don't mind introducing yourself and your background.

[00:01:09]>> Yeah. Well, it would it would take a really long time to go through my background in any detail, but basically um I have degrees in geology and electrical engineering. Um I worked as a geologist for a while. Um, and Matty spent many years in the microprocessor design industry for Intel and Apple, Motorola, IBM, and other companies. And recently, I've been mostly focused on doing um graphics software development.

[00:01:43]>> And you and you lived in Arizona, and we've talked about that in the past.

[00:01:48]>> Yep. Yeah. I I spent a lot I I did my geology um undergraduate at at Arizona State and I spent many year I've lived all over Arizona lived in the Verie Valley for a long time and went to school at NAU for a year too.

[00:02:05]>> Yeah, I was going to if I remember correctly you were living in Flagstaff at one point as well.

[00:02:10]>> Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, when I was at NAU I was um living right off campus there.

[00:02:16]>> Are they screwed as well in the water situation? I mean, you're not you're not going to be any safer up in Flag than you would in Phoenix, right, with water.

[00:02:22]Does it matter?

[00:02:23]>> Well, yeah, Flag Staff, I mean, they get they get some water, you know, percolating down from the San Francisco Peaks, but I'm telling you the truth, I'm not real sure where their water supply comes from. I would assume it's from wells because there there isn't really much surface water around Flaxton.

[00:02:42]>> Yeah. Well, so I I've been wondering to myself, okay, because everything everything right now in the in the news world is me is um is the Middle East, right? Middle East. You're here in Cuba a little bit more. Uh and things, you know, everybody has a very short attention span and things just wash away really quickly. Like that White House correspondence dinner shooting, that's already gone. It's gone.

[00:03:04]>> Yeah.

[00:03:05]>> Right. So, I'm wondering how long this middle the Middle Eastern stuff is going to continue. I think the war will in my opinion I think it's going to continue but I but I think it's going to be put on the back burner in terms of like headlines and my I'm always wondering okay where's it going to go next and one of the things that's why I'm glad that you know you're on here talking to me today because one of the things I think where I think it's going is climate change energy shortages water shortages um because of the fallout from the Middle East. Your thoughts on that? This episode is brought to you by Vaulted, launched by Mlaney Financial Group. With Vaulted, I literally just tap a button and bam, I own physical gold stored in a professional vault. I can also take delivery at any time. Extremely simple and less expensive than any other method. The do-it-yourself way to buy precious metals. Click on the promo link in the show notes or go to vaulted.blvux.net/coffing a mic. I mean, look at how easy this is.

[00:04:13]The Vaulted app on my phone. I can access it at any time.

[00:04:18]>> Yeah, absolutely. Um, you know, one of the things that's going on with the I've seen quite a bit of recently is with the energy shortage is looming. There's going to be big push back towards green energy again, solar and wind power, things which aren't dependent on Middle East oil.

[00:04:37]So, which is not something I was hoping to see, but it seems to be an inevitable consequence of it. And then we've got that, you know, combined with the with the drought situation and overuse of water in the west. So, yeah, I think you're absolutely right. Those those sort of issues are going to become more prominent.

[00:04:58]>> Did you did you think at at any given point in the last year and a half that this was all going to go away? that the whole 2030 and climate change with the new administration that it would just kind of fade away.

[00:05:12]>> Well, the Trump administration has defunded, you know, a lot of the whole the people who were profiting from the new green deal and global warming scams. So that that was a tremendous help for um you know reducing the direct political influence of those people but unfortunately like you mentioned but really we have some backdoor it's coming back through the back door now you know we're getting facing energy shortages high energy prices um and this you know looming water crisis in the western US which is bringing it back um from a different avenue than perhaps they were proceeding previously.

[00:05:58]>> I I you know I asked myself you know with some of this it's like Tony they've been telling us all along what they wanted to do and it's it feels like they're carrying it out the whole agenda 20 I never took it seriously but how do you not look at this right now and be like wow they're they're telling us this and then I asked myself though are they that smart that they can carry something out that long term?

[00:06:23]Well, I mean, ultimately, and we have very real energy and water problems. Um, and particularly with all these new fabs, you know, they're building down in Phoenix and and D all the data centers they're building. So, these are very real problems which we're going to have to address. Um, so I think the debates changing. you know, it's it previously was kind of just sort of this ridiculous um fake statistics about climate change driving it, but now we have some some actual real real problems which we need to address. So hopefully this time around we'll get a more intelligent and productive debate than what we had previously.

[00:07:05]>> See, that's where my uh my pessimistic side of me comes in because anytime you're dealing with government, you don't really get I mean you know that better than I than I would, right, Tony?

[00:07:13]Yeah. Yeah.

[00:07:15]>> The the Oh, go ahead.

[00:07:18]>> Did you hear that plane?

[00:07:19]>> Yeah. Oh, that is that I thought that was your dog.

[00:07:22]>> No. No. We just had another um the uh fighter jets are flying over the house today from Warren Air Force Base.

[00:07:29]>> The uh the government creates a problem, right, with climate, you know, climate change and then they offer the solution.

[00:07:35]That's what that's what that's what I feel like we're always in now. 2020 showed me that the government Yeah.

[00:07:41]>> creates a problem and they provide a solution >> or say they're providing a solution anyway.

[00:07:49]>> And people will people will beg for the solution, >> right?

[00:07:52]>> Or demand us demand a solution.

[00:07:55]>> Yeah. Like that. And if you look at all the money that was made off of the COVID thing, it was hu there were huge amounts of money were borrowed by the government. It was passed out to individuals and they were told they had to buy they shut down all the small stores. They had to buy it from Amazon or from Walmart, right? That was the only place you could buy stuff. So, it's a huge money laundering scam. And then they had all of that um COVID testing that was, you know, 10 multi-10 billion dollar industry. All the testing, huge industry.

[00:08:31]>> Let me share this story with you because you lived in Flag. I was in Flag. Uh, I used to go up there like do Sunday to Tuesday cuz the rates were always cheaper up there on Sunday cuz you know how busy that town is on the weekends, you know, with the Grand Canyon, NAU, uh, skiing in the winter when you can't ski. And then it's also now become it's a mecca for runners like Olympians because it's more affordable than Boulder. So, they love living they love living there and they can drop down to Camp Verde in the winter or come all the way down to Phoenix. But I was running on the um the um I can't even think of the trail. The main trail that goes it it dead it feeds into the outdoor park, outdoor pavilion concert area. Um I can't now I'm blanking out the name of the trail, but it also goes through NAU the opposite direction. Um but anyway, there was a testing center there, a mysterious virus testing center, Tony.

[00:09:25]And I remember stopping to talk to one of the people that was coordinating it and I said, "Is this is this what I think it is?" They're like, "Yeah." I said, "Is it free?" They're like, "No, not during the week, but the weekends it is." And uh and I said, "Is it busy on the weekends?" They're like, "It's slammed." And we see the same faces every single week.

[00:09:44]>> Really?

[00:09:44]>> Every single week.

[00:09:46]>> And so, you look back on all that and it's just like, yeah, what was this really all about? Right? The testing uh you taking away uh people's civil liberties and testing the boundaries and you know, and I and I've had people push back on me. I think it was successful what they were trying to achieve and I think it didn't happen by accident and it was on a global scale that this messaging was carried out and I feel like that's where we're heading now >> again do you >> well yeah I don't know I mean the the whole co thing was just was just crazy you know I I recognized it immediately that there was something seriously wrong actually I was in Flagstaff right when it was all starting um >> me too I got kicked out of my health.

[00:10:30]They were they were taking the furniture out of the lobby at the courtyard Marriott right there off the 17.

[00:10:37]>> So I I my my boss at the time I had to call him in the afternoon. It was a it was a Tuesday I think Monday or Tuesday.

[00:10:43]No, it was Tuesday cuz I was at I'm going to bore my audience with this but I was at Pizza Cla on Monday night because that's like my favorite pizzeria in Flag. And uh I remember thinking to myself t Sunday night I was a shift and sitting there with people and I'm like this is going to be the last time I do this for a while. Like I feel like the world tomorrow is going to be completely different. And Monday night I got pizza and I and I was like I'm taking this to go. It doesn't feel right to sit in here. And the next day uh I was going to spend the afternoon in the lobby just working and I couldn't because they moved all the furniture out. They didn't want anybody sitting there hanging out.

[00:11:17]But but but I but what I think though now um you know for that period it was volunte volunt you voluntarily surrendered right I mean they >> they didn't make you feel like it was voluntarily but you you really did have a choice this time around with energy I I think they're going to in my opinion I think they're going to you're not going to have a choice with shortages and >> Yeah.

[00:11:45]Yeah. I I was um in I was down in the valley when the day when the mayor of Phoenix shut down all the restaurants and I I was sitting in a restaurant in a dog friendly restaurant in Glendale with Rambo and Oreo. Um when that announcement came on that they were going to shut him down that night. So we we finished up. Then I went over to a dog friendly res restaurant in Paradise Valley for for dinner where a friend of mine worked. And we had got another meal there right before they shut everything down. So then the next day I drove up to Flagstaff and got to the Exxon station there north of campus and the bathrooms were closed because everyone had stolen all the toilet paper.

[00:12:29]>> Oh my god.

[00:12:31]>> And then then I went on campus and I I overheard a couple co-eds talking and one of them said, you know, they're not going to shut down the internet or Facebook because they need to keep us scared. And I I thought that was one of the more pressing pressing things I heard during the pandemic. You know, they understood exactly what was going on. Well, and also though too is like government I mean I don't remember who said this but they always capitalize on a crisis and I feel like that we are we're in another crisis now and even if it's a manufacturer one like that was um like so the water situation for example I don't know how bad it is and I mean you know we'll we let's talk about this but I you in my view if the government says it's bad I have no way to verify it. So, um, you know, they were saying I just saw last week in Arizona by the end of the year it's going to go to a level two emergency drought. Do you see that?

[00:13:30]>> Yeah, I did. I didn't see that, but I' i've been following the the drought thing pretty closely.

[00:13:35]>> So, I asked myself, I'm like, "Okay, what does that mean if we at level two?"

[00:13:39]>> I didn't even realize we're at a level I think and I feel like we're always in a level two or level 10. Uh but uh apparently that means there's going to be more more education on water usage, but also it means there's going to be more uh they're going to charge you more. They're going to allow you a certain aotment or something. I don't know how they would do that.

[00:13:59]>> Yeah, they're well they're going to have to figure out ways to reduce water usage there. There's no question about that.

[00:14:07]>> How will they do that, Tony?

[00:14:09]Well, I think you know the ultimately the conversation is going to have to come down to agriculture and most of the water used most of the Colorado River water and the water used in Arizona is by agriculture which is very important.

[00:14:27]You know Colorado River water provides like 90% of the United States winter vegetable crop. So that they they form an they provide an essential commodity for for the entire country and really for the world. But the problem is that with the amount of they've been using for a very long time they've been agriculture has been using more water than is available um in the valley and in the Colorado River. And so they're going to have to either figure out a way to reduce water usage by agriculture and maintain productivity or they're going to have to find way simply other sources of like winter vegetables and alalfa other than them than sources derived from Colorado river water or salt river valley water.

[00:15:21]So, because the Colorado River, I mean, it provides See, I didn't even realize that with the with the um uh with the vegetable side of it, but it but it it's not only Arizona, it's Nevada, California, Utah, Col, and Colorado, right?

[00:15:38]>> Mexico.

[00:15:38]>> Mexico.

[00:15:40]>> A lot of a lot of our vegetables probably comes from Mexico. That's also grown with the Colorado River one. But yeah, the Imperial Valley in Colorado is huge. to the Yuma area provides like almost all of the the winter lettuce for the United States. It's it's a very productive agricultural area because of the climate, lots of sunshine, the winter temperatures are mild and there's been water available for them in the past.

[00:16:12]But is there is there a viable solution?

[00:16:14]I mean, we could sit down and talk this through and I mean, if there's not enough and here here's the other thing I don't I don't understand. I mean, coming back to Phoenix for a second. I don't know the last time you was here, you were here, but the construction that's going on around me just in my area of Scottsdale, Phoenix, it's unbelievable.

[00:16:31]I I can't even believe how much they're building.

[00:16:34]>> Yeah.

[00:16:35]Well, see that that's ultimately it's going to come down to a war between the cities and the farmers, right?

[00:16:42]um you know there's not there's not enough water for both of them long term.

[00:16:47]So who's going to win that battle? And the only the only way they can get rid of the farmers is if there's alternative sources found for providing the agricultural products which they're producing. And those are almost certainly have to be from like Central America or South America because there isn't really any place else in the United States where you can grow winter vegetables very well >> or the developers can buy up this farmland. I mean I I I I was told in Yuma they they'll pay farmers double to not grow.

[00:17:23]>> Yeah. Yeah. I can believe that. Um and I mean it seems like most likely scenario just given the amount of the population, the amount of money is that the cities are going to prevail in this battle with agriculture. But that creates a lot of other problems for the rest of the country as well. from his what kind of problems? Short food shortage.

[00:17:46]>> Food shortages. Yeah.

[00:17:48]>> And and high prices of foods.

[00:17:52]>> So, it's I I have no idea how this is going to where it'll ultimately end up.

[00:17:58]But the key thing to think of is that agriculture does use something like 2/3 of the water in Arizona.

[00:18:07]And so that's that's the lowhanging fruit for reducing water usage.

[00:18:14]>> How far away are we from this being a I mean where would you say it's at right now for in terms of a problem? How serious of a problem is it?

[00:18:23]>> Well you can so if you go back um like hundred years a little more than 100 years they started extensive agriculture in the Salt River Valley. Um they were the agriculture in Chandler and Gilbert and all those places was driven by pumping groundwater.

[00:18:41]Um and they were depleting the water table very quickly. There was huge amount of groundwater depletion. When I went to when I studied geology at ASU in the 1970s, it was it was already a very serious problem. there were huge subsidance cracks opening up around the edge of the valley because they were they were removing groundwater and and the the ground was collapsing. So this been going on for a long time. So then when they built the central Arizona project in the 80s, they started bringing water in from the Colorado River and they use some of that to replenish the water table in the underneath Phoenix and Salt River Valley. So the water table's actually been in better shape there now than it was um you know 30 or 40 years ago. Um but now the problem is they can't do that anymore because their their central Arizona project allocations are are are going to be cut back. They've already already reduced the amount of water being released from Lake Pal and so everyone downstream from Lake Pal is going to start taking a hit. So they're not going to be able to fill up the, you know, the water table anymore from Colorado River water. Now that Phoenix is going to have to go back to depleting the this the water table underneath the city again, which is not a long-term viable solution. They can do that for maybe 10, 15 years, but then they're back to the problem of they don't have central Arizona project water and they don't have groundwater either. So, it's probably in about I I think that in about 10 years if they haven't come up with some sort of solution for agriculture, that's when the real serious problems are going to hit the valley.

[00:20:30]>> Well, in the Central Arizona project, is that the that the canals that I've run on?

[00:20:35]>> Yeah, the Central Arizona project is built in 1980s. It brought brings a lot of water from the Colorado River to Phoenix. So all those canals that I see, some of them though are fenced off that you can't run on them and some of them you can run on.

[00:20:50]>> Well, the central Arizona projects is the big one that comes in from the northwest crosses 303 um goes across sort of north north Phoenix. It's really big canal.

[00:21:02]Yeah, it's fenced off. You can't run them, >> but some of them you can or public that you can run right alongside of them.

[00:21:09]Yeah, I used when I lived in Chandler, I used to run along the canals, the farming canals down there, but central Arizona projects kind of different sort of purpose. It's not for directly irrigating. It's farmed out into other canals.

[00:21:25]>> Interesting. So, so and you were talking about in your last video in regards to Lake Powell, uh, you know, Lake Powell.

[00:21:32]And I think when when I when I hear Lake Powell, I also think of Lake Me. And as a child, I grew up, you know, I grew up in Ohio, but my family moved to Vegas in the late '7s. And my uncle had boats. I spent a lot of time on Lake Meade as a kid. And he was actually, ironically, just doing an interview with a local news channel uh over the last couple of days. And uh talking about, you know, his time being on Lake Me and how the water levels have dropped so low. I mean, they're finding dead bodies at the bottom of that lake.

[00:22:01]And I don't think those were domestic disputes how these bodies ended up at the bottom of it.

[00:22:06]But um >> yeah, >> go ahead. Sorry.

[00:22:09]>> Yeah, you guys. I think Las Vegas is in more eminent danger than Phoenix because they are very dependent on Lake me water and it lake me's get all very low and they've already cut way back on the amount of water being released from Lake Pal. So the lake meat problem is going to get worse very very quickly and I'm not sure what Las Vegas is going to do.

[00:22:35]They've had you know explosive growth in that city and you know the Lake Pal Lake me's been disappearing for a long time.

[00:22:44]>> Yeah, I think Las Vegas is a double whammy because and you know the water situation but also the gaming has all changed as well, right? Everybody's gambling on their phones today. young people can't afford to go there and they want it at the tip of their fingers and most of these cities have casinos in them that you don't need to go to Las Vegas any longer.

[00:23:04]>> Um, but so in relation to the Hoover Dam, you know, I don't see I don't know how to read these numbers like how close is it to the Deadpool status? And could you explain to people what Deadpool means?

[00:23:17]Yeah, there's a lot of misinformation about what Deadpool means, but it's the it's sort of the minimum level where water can flow out of the dam. So, so like let's talk about Lake Pal to explain that. It's a little easier to explain. So, like during the 1980s, it was very wet and Lake Pal filled up. Um, and but since then the lake level has been going down since really since the mid 1990s the lake level's been going down and what they've been essentially doing is borrowing water that was stored up there in the 1980s. For the past 35 years they've been depleting water that was saved up in the 1980s. It's going down. It's headed down towards this Deadpool elevation. And that's the elevation where water can't flow up. If if the elevation of the lake goes below that, water can't flow out of the dam anymore. And that's the point when you get to that point, that's where you can't borrow water from the past anymore. Um, we we've been b removing more water from Lake Powell than it's been flowing in for a long time. But when it gets to Deadpool elevation, you can't do that anymore. then you could only remove water as fast as it's flowing in and then then you're restricted to the actual stream flow on the Colorado River minus evaporation on the lake for water downstream. So that that's the reality check when you get to Deadpool. That's the reality check when you can no longer keep using more water than is available.

[00:24:56]Then you're you're limited to what's actually in the Colorado River at that point.

[00:25:01]So I guess I'm just trying to imagine if I'm a resident in Las Vegas because it to me it's inevitable it's going to hit that status right at some point like >> well that they've already you know drilled tunnels um into Hoover Dam below the Deadpool elevation to bring water out. So the the city of Las Vegas has been anticipating this and they they've got temporary solutions to this where they can get water from low lower levels and they're already doing that. But ultimately it's at at some point we have to all these cities are going to have to deal with reality that there's not enough water in the Colorado River to support them and the agriculture going on using the Colorado River water.

[00:25:53]>> So basically if you so if you live in Las Vegas or Phoenix I'd consider leaving type of thing that because I I factor that in.

[00:26:02]you know, maybe. But, you know, I don't think we're I don't think it's that drastic yet. I'm If the agricult I'm not I don't want to get attacked for this, but without the agriculture, there would be enough water for Phoenix. And so, it's going to come down to a battle between the farmers and the cities. And I have no idea how that's going to play out, but there is enough water for the cities. Um, there isn't enough water for both cities and agriculture.

[00:26:36]So, um, how how this plays out, I have absolutely no idea.

[00:26:41]>> I could put a guess out there. I mean, if you if you've got development versus farmers.

[00:26:46]>> Yeah.

[00:26:46]>> Who who how would development not win if they have the money behind it?

[00:26:51]>> Yeah, that's that seems like the likely solution. Yeah. I mean, we're playing clue here, Tony, but you know, we can take a guess here for a second and uh see you like throw an estimate of what may occur now. Now, so Lake Powell though, and you were talking about this in your latest video as well, how close are they to Deadpool status?

[00:27:16]Well, Lake Pal um so a couple weeks ago they started um there there's a fair amount of water in um Flaming Gorge Reservoir upstream on the Green River in Utah. So a couple weeks ago they they made two big moves.

[00:27:32]One is they started reducing the amount of water flowing out of Lake Powell and the other was they started releasing very large amounts of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir into the Green River. So probably in a few days, Lake Powell will actually start gaining water because of this water coming down from Flaming Gorge. So what they're doing is they're, you know, taking taking reducing the level of Flaming Gorge to prop up Lake Powell. So Lake Powell isn't in any imminent danger of Deadpool or minimum power pool this year. um they've if that if those sort of things happen, it'll be a few years down the road and know this big El Nino which they're forecasting there's a possibility that there'll be a lot of snow pack in the Rockies next winter which will prop up Lake Powell further. So Lake Pal is not in any imminent danger this year of disaster. Um, and if there's a big this big El Nino may actually help give them a few more years buffer. It's really more of a long-term problem like 10 or 20 years down the road because for like I said for the past 120 years more water has been used than is available um with the exception of the 1980s and so it's it it it's a problem which needs to be addressed.

[00:29:00]>> Yeah. So, so explain to people what if they might not know what El Nino is and how this could be the the biggest one ever that we're looking at.

[00:29:08]>> Yeah. El Nino is uh when the surface waters of the central Pacific get really warm and a lot of times when El Nino occur like in 1983 and in 2023 that results in tremendous snow pack in the Rocky Mountains and then when that runs off it fills up the reservoir somewhat. I mean that that happened in 2023 and in 2022 Lake Pal was very low like it is now and then the 2023 El Nino came there was huge amounts of snow in Colorado and New Mexico and um Utah and when that snow melted the water level came up like something like 60 feet on Lake Pal as a result of that runoff. So there's a possibility that this big El Nino, which they're forecasting, will produce a similar effect that there'll be a lot of snow in the Rocky Mountains and will help out the situation in Lake Meade and Lake Pal. So that that's kind of what water managers are hoping for. There's no guarantee it'll happen, but there is some evidence there. There's fairly good correlation between El Ninos and and good snowpack in the Rockies. So that would be this coming winter, >> right? That would be 20, the spring of 20 to 27 is when the lakes would start seeing the benefit of that.

[00:30:30]>> Yeah, it you know it it um you know I run outside almost every day and um I was referencing somebody I was talking to 2020 we hit 105 at the end of April. I might even told you this story. And uh I remember thinking to myself, I'm like, man, if we're if we're getting this hot at the end of April, this is going to be a bad summer. So that summer we went seven months, I want to say seven months with no rain. And the August the average temperature was over 100 degrees for the whole month. And you try to explain to somebody, they're like, "No, that's not that bad." I'm like, "No, no, you don't understand. Like 100 average 24 hours a day for the whole month of August."

[00:31:09]>> It was awful. And uh and I remember actually going up to Flag uh in October of that year, hiking Humphrey's and I happened to have a hotel room thinking, "Oh, I'll just go downtown and eat rather than and then go to my room and just shower and crash." But I was so dirty because of the dust because they just had gotten no rain.

[00:31:28]>> And you know, and you pay attention to this, we we hit 107 mid-March this year.

[00:31:34]I've never seen it hit that high. I've seen 100 but never seen it hit 107 or I think parts of the valley were hitting 110 mid-March. We lost half the month.

[00:31:43]>> Yeah.

[00:31:44]Well, that's a that's one of the side effects of the drought that droughts been going on for like 25 years. Soil moisture is very low um across the entire West right now. And um when soil moisture gets low then temperatures go up. There's less evaporative cooling. So things keep getting hotter as a result of that. Also you have massive growth in the Phoenix area urban heat. You got that urban heat island effect from all the building and asphalt which is spread out. So you've got a lot of things going on there raising the temperature. Is that uh you know I remember somebody saying to me I don't think I asked you this last time that because of the urban heat does that keep the monsoons minimize them from coming in because of the the heat coming off the asphalt that creates a wall.

[00:32:36]>> Yeah I don't I've heard different theories about that. Some people think that the the rising heat off their urban heat island fact actually enhances thunderstorms but I don't really know. I think more it's some more of a problem with more of a regional drought condition than than than anything specific to Phoenix.

[00:32:58]>> Guess it depends on who's saying it and what books are offering, right? And what uh what type of movement you can you can join for $10 a month.

[00:33:05]>> Yeah.

[00:33:07]>> Everything's a griff, Tony.

[00:33:10]Um the well and the other thing too is you know in Phoenix coming back to Phoenix uh our monsoon last year we got nothing until August we got a big haboo which those big dust storms for people that don't know uh we got a huge rainstorm September uh the airport was flooded >> and the next day I had actually flown back to Phoenix from Ohio we had a circle couldn't land because of a thunderstorm.

[00:33:38]>> Yeah. October we got a lot of rain. Half of November we got a lot of rain. And I'm thinking, "Oh man, like we're just getting it on the back end." And then that ever since nothing. Very little.

[00:33:48]>> Yeah.

[00:33:49]>> Yeah. Same thing here in Wyoming.

[00:33:51]Southeast Wyoming. We We had almost no snow all winter until yesterday.

[00:33:59]We finally got our real snow yesterday, but and temperatures were like 10 12 degrees above normal all winter.

[00:34:07]He was very regional. He was all over the west. Something very odd was going on.

[00:34:13]>> What is your level of concern then with all this?

[00:34:18]>> Well, I there I've got a lot of different concerns. I mean, certainly the, you know, one big concern we've got here in Wyoming is the grass, you know, the rangeands. You know, what are ranchers going to do? I don't know how we had a lot of snow yesterday. um which will help some, but the rangeands are in extremely bad shape in southeast Wyoming and northeastern Colorado.

[00:34:44]This going to affect the cattle in, you know, the price of beef. Um probably I would predict we're probably going to see a big sell a lot of ranchers are going to sell off a lot of their beef.

[00:34:57]and which will cause an initial drop in in beef prices, but then after that there's going to be a shortage.

[00:35:05]Also, the all the industrial meat farming in northeastern Colorado, it's it's closely related to Colorado River water because they bring Colorado river water in tunnels through across the continental divide to northeastern Colorado that's used to grow corn, which is used to feed the cattle. So, so the the industrial meat industry in northeastern Colorado is going to have also be suffering from this. So, there's a lot of different side effects we're going to be running into. But then, of course, there's the fire danger. That's going to be, you know, unless we get early monsoon season in the west, that's going to be huge because everything is is parched out and dry. The Mogulan rim had almost no snow this winter at all.

[00:35:52]the Chusa Mountains, you know, which the Navo and Hope I hope you depend on for the water supply and essentially no snow this winter. The Logan Mountains in southwestern New Mexico didn't have any.

[00:36:04]So, yeah, there's all all kinds of problems, you know, we're potentially facing.

[00:36:10]>> Yeah. People don't realize that, you know, it gets so dry out here in the part of the country that we live in and uh they'll shut everything down in northern Arizona where I mean, you won't be able to hike in flag. You won't and rightfully so, but just something a uh like a chain from an RV uh can cause a fire and just ripple right through.

[00:36:29]>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And you know, year after year of drought in Arizona, it's just making it much worse. There's all this extremely dry forest letter on the ground and um you know and the fire season's going to come early because of the drought. Hey, can you hold on just a sec?

[00:36:49]>> I got a dog.

[00:36:50]>> Yeah, go ahead. I I'm gonna I'm gonna talk while you while you're doing that here really quick. Um the um Can you still hear me?

[00:36:58]>> Yeah.

[00:36:59]>> Yeah. So So here's what something you'll appreciate this story. The McDow Mountains are I don't know you're probably familiar with the Mcdow Mountains in North Scottsdale. They're building now by Tom's Thumb if you know where Tom's Thumb is >> in the McDonald's. So they're building these extravagant houses >> and like two years ago there was a brush fire on the one trail that I run in run on. It's maybe a quarter mile from the uh from these houses >> and I'm thinking I'm like you're nut you guys are nuts. I mean these houses got to be a million plus. Yeah.

[00:37:33]Yeah. That Yeah, that's a huge problem.

[00:37:36]You know, people want to they want to live, you know, in the forest or, you know, in in places where there's a lot of vegetation around and um you know, that's pretty dangerous thing to do right now.

[00:37:48]>> So, Oh, go ahead.

[00:37:50]>> Yeah. I was I was I was looking the other day at a at I back in the around about 1985 about 40 years ago. I was working at a summer camp up in the east fork of the Verie River um near um up above PAC there and um I was looking at a home there which is right on the Verdie River. East Fork that um surrounded by trees and it the house is selling for like $2 million and you know this probably would have been what 40 years ago probably would have been a $10,000 house. Nothing fancy about it.

[00:38:30]Um I was thinking that I know the terrain and and they're in a lot of danger in that place with those trees close to the house. you know, just a lot of people out there, a lot of tourists hiking on the trail, and you know, the fire starts, the wind's blowing, you know, everything's going to burn up there. And it's like that in these forest communities all over the rim.

[00:38:54]And certainly true in Colorado is going to have similar problems. New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, >> and Colorado, I mean, and Denver is having the same water situation that Phoenix is having, right?

[00:39:07]Yeah, they've Yeah, they it's extreme extremely dry winter. Um, and Phoenix in Denver relies heavily on Colorado River water, too, which is pipes across the continental. It's Yeah. So, they're they're facing certainly here in Cheyenne, you know, our water sp I'm really worried about our water supply >> to the point would you if somebody asked you, should I move here right now? What would you tell them?

[00:39:37]No, I would tell them no under any circumstances because I don't want the town to >> Right. But but they're big, you know, they're building all these massive data centers here, just gigantic data centers all around which are going to use a lot of water and we don't have the water available. So, you know, where's the energy going to come from? Where's the where's the water going to come from for these? There doesn't doesn't You said it doesn't seem to be um the uh the data centers. Um Tony Tony left the room for a second, but he'll be right back. Oh, there he is. He's coming back. You said that. So you said the data centers >> they don't It just goes to show they don't care.

[00:40:31]>> Yeah. Yeah. They Well, they it shows that they haven't thought things through, you They haven't really considered the resource limitations here. They're building a lot of data centers here because with our at our high altitude, you know, their cooling costs are minimal. Um, you know, where they have less cooling costs because the ambient air temperature is lower, but they haven't considered the fact we don't have any water. You know, our water supply is extremely limited. And this year is going to be particularly severe because the watershed until yesterday had almost no snow in it, but we're still, you know, way below normal.

[00:41:08]Reservoirs are very low. Um we they piped some water in from the other side of the Continental Divide to Cheyenne, too. But there's going to be this massive battle for between the upper basin states and the lower basin states for the the water supply of the Colorado River which affects people on both sides of the continental divide.

[00:41:30]>> And the federal government's going to probably have to intervene, right, to to work out some type of agreement.

[00:41:36]>> Yeah. There's there's really no way for the states to work this out because because there's going to be big sacrifices required and you know no politician wants their state to be the one who you know gave up the most. So it's it's getting really difficult.

[00:41:54]Arizona's actually cut back already quite a bit on their on their water usage. Um I think there's a one one thing I think Arizona is going to do is um San Diego has unused desalinization capacity and I think they're going to sell their a lotment of Colorado River water to Arizona.

[00:42:17]>> I didn't realize San Diego has deselination plants already.

[00:42:21]>> Yeah, they've got they've got deselinization plants which are not being used right now. Um, and they have on a lot under the Colorado River Compact 1922, they have some allocation of Colorado River water. And so what they're they'll probably do is just sell that to Arizona at a very high price and use desolization water for their local water spawn.

[00:42:48]>> I've read that uh what is the what is the the recycled water that they've talked about?

[00:42:53]>> Yeah.

[00:42:54]like taking water like waste water and recycling it or something.

[00:42:59]>> Yeah, they're probably going to have to do that. And right now the recycle, you know, the the waist treated waste water gets dumped on the golf courses and in, you know, Scottdale. Um, but they're going to have to start thinking about using that for domestic use and recycling it for domestic use.

[00:43:18]>> So, what do they do? Put a bunch of chemicals in it to get it up to code or something? Well, I mean you can make water completely clean by distillation.

[00:43:28]You know, if you distill water, it just it becomes pure. And you know, that's would be that's the cleanest way to to take dirty water and make it clean. That that's how nature recycles water, dirty water, and makes clean rainwater is through distillation. So, I don't know. I don't really know what the ultimate solution would be, but distillation would be the one that's most palatable to the public. You know, excuse the pun there. Well, the Well, the other thing is too, and I want to ask you one thing about the Southeast, but in regards to I mean, you and you we've talked about this in the past, like it's not getting is it getting hotter? Has it been getting like like Arizona for example or the whole Southwest? Have things been getting hotter or it just hits certain levels and it goes back and then it, you know, it just goes in cycles. It can't get much hotter.

[00:44:22]>> Yeah, the western US has definitely gotten warmer over the last 40 or 50.

[00:44:27]Eastern US has largely gotten cooler actually, but a little fewer heat waves, but the western US has definitely gotten warmer over over the last 30, 40 years.

[00:44:40]And that's attributed to >> um I don't really know. Certainly drought is part of it though the low soils you know when there's not much much moisture in the soil you don't get evaporative cooling and that's definitely contributed to it.

[00:44:58]>> You'll appreciate this. my uh guy I have on pretty regularly, friend of mine, Jim Consler, always I said to him at one point because he's a big uh loves history of geography and architecture and and I said uh I said I don't think Phoenix was designed to host this many people. He goes, "Mike, it was never designed. It was a good idea at the time." That's what that's what the whole concept was.

[00:45:20]>> Yeah.

[00:45:21]>> Oh, let's build a street. Let's have another street. Let's have a highway.

[00:45:25]>> Yeah. The interesting thing though is that the valley actually uses less water now than it did a hundred years ago. And the reason is because the agriculture has been replaced by housing by urban areas. And so that the farmers were using more water per acre than the housing does. So so there's actually been a reduction in in valley water usage, which is surprising, but it makes sense.

[00:45:55]That's interesting because this is the fifth or sixth biggest city in the country.

[00:46:00]>> Yeah.

[00:46:02]Well, you think they, you know, the Chandler and Gilbert and Mesa used to be covered with with farms and they were dumping huge amounts of water onto those farms to grow the crops. Um, I remember uh when I was in the fraternity house on at New Row and and at ASU, which is no longer doesn't exist anymore, but the lawns at all the fraternity houses were they were assessed about 2 feet below the the street level. And the way they they irrigated the grass was they just go and flood it full of water two feet deep, you know, once every couple weeks, just completely flood it out. Then we go out and play football in the mud or you know and that was a big thing which happened every two weeks but the amount of water that gets wasted and evaporated away from this flood flooding irrigation is huge and um you know now they've gotten rid of almost all the farms in Jandler and Gilbert and Mesa they're not doing that anymore they're not evaporating that water away anymore so the water water usage is much more efficient now than it is century ago.

[00:47:14]>> Do you see a scenario where they'll they'll start like Yuma like tearing up all the farmland down there or is some of it untouchable in your view?

[00:47:22]>> Well, I mean until there's some there's some other source for the lettuce which they grow down there in the winter. Um what are what are they going to do? They can't just cut off the lettuce supply to the United States. Or maybe they can, but it's not just a local problem for Arizona or for the farmers. It's they provide an essential product for the entire country. Um so it's a national problem which there need which the federal government needs to be thinking about. What are we going to do? We don't have enough water for the farms and the cities and we don't have another source for the food which the farms are producing. So there's got to be sort of a view from 50,000 ft of this, you know, how are we going to resolve all the problems at the same time?

[00:48:12]>> Yeah. Isn't human known as the lettuce I think it's the lettuce capital of the world or is it the citrus capital of the world?

[00:48:18]>> Well, lettuce. Yeah, they they got something like 90% of the winter lettuce in the United States is grown in Yuma.

[00:48:27]>> Wow. Huh. Now, you also talked about the southeast. I have a friend that lives in the mountains in Appalachia, North Carolina, and uh he was telling me, we spoke a few days ago, I mean, they're in a terrible drought.

[00:48:39]>> Yeah.

[00:48:40]>> Yeah. They've had they've been an extreme, very severe drought, which has been mitigated somewhat by the um it's been a lot of rain the last couple weeks there. So, there circumstances are getting better down there in some areas.

[00:48:56]I think some areas like southeast Georgia and North Florida are still in a, you know, possibly their worst drought ever, but some of the areas of like in Mississippi and Alabama have gotten better. I'm not sure about the Appalachian.

[00:49:15]I know I know a kid who just quit his job to go hike the the Appalachian Trail and I told him, you know, there may not be any water down there, but have fun.

[00:49:25]Well, and the well the thing is too with you know I was there last summer. It's the first time I'd ever been there uh in those mountains and it's so lush, it's so green that god forbid any type of fire. I mean it would just roar through that place.

[00:49:41]>> Yeah.

[00:49:42]>> And they're not trained to handle it.

[00:49:44]>> Yeah. Yeah. That's definitely Yeah.

[00:49:48]Hopefully the rains will continue there.

[00:49:50]um because they they desperately need it southeast.

[00:49:54]>> The um I was in Asheville and uh saw the damage that Hurricane Helena had caused on that area and it it was unbelievable.

[00:50:02]These buildings that are just they look like they reminded me of buildings in Cleveland that were like were empty or abandoned for like for years and people said, "Oh, it's from the hurricane. You can't use them anymore."

[00:50:15]>> Yeah. Yeah. I can Yeah. Asheville has has a long history of really bad floods.

[00:50:21]No one should have been surprised by it, but you know that that flood a couple years ago may not have been their worst one.

[00:50:28]>> People shouldn't be surprised by it.

[00:50:30]>> I I like what you you posted on X. What did you say about cloud seeding? You said there's no clouds. How could there be any cloud seating going on right now or something?

[00:50:38]>> Yeah, right. There's all these conspiracy theories that cloud seeding is is causing the drought, but cloud seeding only works if there's actually clouds to put seeds and there hasn't been, you know, during this winter.

[00:50:54]>> I I'll tell you, I you know, I've had people on there's certain things I guess maybe I'm just not smart enough to grasp. I don't get the whole cloud seating. I don't understand it that the government can manipulate weather. Am I am I am I stupid, Tony?

[00:51:07]Well, it's just it's not the physics is pretty straightforward. It's just when when there's clouds there with a fair amount of water and I'm putting they put these small crystals in it which gives the water something to nucleiate around the water. It makes it easier for the water droplets to form. So, I think it's pretty well established that if you've got clouds, cloud seating can potentially increase the amount of water available in your area, which would necessarily mean you're decreasing the amount of water available somewhere else.

[00:51:42]So, so it is I mean you believe it.

[00:51:45]>> Oh, yeah. Yeah, definitely.

[00:51:46]>> Yeah.

[00:51:47]>> I I people explain it to me. I just I don't understand it. I don't like like the the how the government can manipulate weather.

[00:51:55]Yeah, that's that's cluting's been going on for a really long time. God, I don't probably a hundred years people have been doing that. Um, so it's it's pretty well established that it actually works, but there are side effects to it. Like you get more water, someone else gets less.

[00:52:15]>> So now you you're doing media tour, you Jimmy door yesterday, we're we're you know here coffee and a mic today. Uh, and today is uh May 7th, by the way.

[00:52:26]People get mad at me. I don't take date time stamp this at the beginning of the shows, but I forgot. So, sorry. It's May 7th. It's uh 11:00 a.m. almost 11:00 a.m. Pacific time. What uh what are you where is your attention going to be focused on right now?

[00:52:41]>> Well, I'm definitely, you know, I'm trying to keep get people focused on the water situation.

[00:52:47]um because that's really the big issue right now. Something we need to address and we need to do it right away in in the United States and it's you know potentially very serious problem and in the not too distant future. So want people focused on it. So I'm glad we were able to talk about that extensively today.

[00:53:10]>> Yeah. I um I I've said to people, I mean, I've been talking about leaving Arizona for a few years and I probably said it to you last year when I talked to you. Um because I don't I don't know what the I don't know what the solution is, but I think my solution is to move to somewhere where it rains. It rains in Ohio.

[00:53:26]>> Yeah.

[00:53:28]Yeah, it definitely rains up there.

[00:53:31]>> But the problem is now, you know, these data centers, they're building these things everywhere.

[00:53:35]>> Yeah.

[00:53:37]Yeah. this data center thing. At some point they're going to have to start dealing with reality and I think half of them will probably never get built.

[00:53:46]I'm particularly concerned about, you know, those the TSMC expansion in Northwest Phoenix and and Intel's expansion in Chandler. You know, that they're going to have to address the water issues there um if if they actually want to go through with this. But yeah, the the whole the whole AI data expansion thing is going to be causing a lot of problems both for water and for energy moving forwards.

[00:54:15]>> The the TSMC. So, they're building uh North Phoenix, North Scottdale, they're building a TSMC center and then a banner right next to it. And then they're gonna start, I don't know when they're gonna start this, but 76 acres Axon Taser new headquarters are right quarter mile >> uh across the street from the TSMC or real close proximity is a new Cardinals Arizona Cardinals practice facility.

[00:54:41]>> Oh yeah.

[00:54:42]>> And then high more high-end apartments all within a half a mile.

[00:54:47]>> Yeah, I can believe it.

[00:54:50]Yeah. Last time I lived down there in uh 2019, um I used to take my dogs hiking up every day up in the um in in the Phoenix um Sonor and Desert Park up there um in in North Phoenix, east of I7. And I would turn down there on on Cactus with Snor Desert Road to go there, which is where the TSMC FAB's located now. And there was nothing there, you know. And now I look on Google Maps say that massive FAB facility there. It's kind of remarkable.

[00:55:28]>> Makes no sense that they're building these here.

[00:55:31]>> Yeah, it's it's crazy. And why they started building them in Arizona is beyond me, but they're doing it and they're expanding that fab quite a bit.

[00:55:42]>> Nevada, too. I think Nevada's got a lot under construction.

[00:55:46]>> Yeah, it's crazy. Where where's the water going to come from? I have no idea.

[00:55:51]>> Where can people find you, Tony?

[00:55:54]Um, probably the best I most of my information is on X just Tony Climate and I've got a YouTube channel. Um, just Tony Heller I believe and but then I've got a realclimatescience.com is my website. I post stuff to >> As always, I enjoy our conversations.

[00:56:16]Thanks for doing this and uh I I like I said I think this problem it's not going away anytime soon. So I I look forward to continuing to follow your work and um more conversations ahead.

[00:56:27]>> Yeah, same same here. Michael, appreciate you giving me the opportunity to talk about mic drop.