Expert analysis: New deal with Iran could end war, reopen Strait of Hormuz

[00:00:00]Well, President Trump says the US and Iran have reached an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:06]>> And we're breaking down the details with the University of Chicago political science professor Paul Post. Thank you so much, professor, for joining us. I want to start with the most immediate impact on us and that is gas prices.

[00:00:19]We're hearing that barrels barrels of oil are down $4. I think they were at a high of like 112 back in April and now in the the $80 a barrel range. When are we going to see and and will we see dramatic increase or decreases, I should say, at the pump?

[00:00:36]>> It'll take some time before you start to see that kind of outcome. And the reason why is because the peace deal itself is, first of all, it's not even clear the extent to which it is a full peace deal.

[00:00:50]But secondly, it'll be signed on Friday and even at that point, it's going to take time before ships start to feel fully safe going through the Strait of Hormuz. What is supposed to take place on Friday, at least according to the reports, we haven't seen the full text yet, is that both Iran and the US will remove their blockades from the Strait of Hormuz and thereby start allowing ships to go through. But there has to be a demining process. Iran had laid a variety of mines throughout the strait.

[00:01:20]That has to be completed before insurance companies will allow ships to go through. And so until that happens, you're not going to see a marked shift in say oil production or oil shipments coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:01:34]>> Professor, I want to talk to you about what makes this believable at this point and the only reason why I bring that up is because we know on April 11th, the Vice President J.D. Vance, he actually went to Islamabad to talk to hopefully reach a deal. We know those talks lasted about 21 hours. No deal came out of it.

[00:01:52]Why is this time optimism? Why are we optimistic and why do we believe that this will actually be something that happens?

[00:02:03]>> I'm asking the exact same question.

[00:02:05]Precisely >> [laughter] >> precisely for the reason that you just laid out. I feel like we have been here before. We have been in a situation where it seemed like we had a deal or at least President Trump said that there's you know, we're very close to the deal.

[00:02:19]We're only a few days away from a deal.

[00:02:21]And indeed we have had a ceasefire for weeks now and that ceasefire has been continually tested and continually tested. And as far as we know right now, the deal that's been reached is really just a framework for more extensive peace negotiations that will take place say over the next 60 days or longer. So in many ways it's not even clear that the deal that was reached was even a deal per se. Again, it's not going to be signed until Friday and even then it's just a framework for really continuing the if you will, real negotiations to try to reach a settlement.

[00:02:59]>> What does this mean for the safety of us and our families back here at home because President Trump indicated that this conflict began because of Iran's nuclear ambitions. This next 60 days are going to lay out what to do with what President Trump considers nuclear dust, that enriched uranium that Iran has. So how much safer are we going to be do you think in the end of this or do we just need to wait and see?

[00:03:25]>> I think we just need to wait and see also because one key issue that at least according to what has been seen about this framework agreement is the nuclear program as you're referring to and it's not clear that that is even something that is fully on the table. President Trump has said repeatedly that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, cannot even have a nuclear program. Now it seems like he is willing to allow them to a nuclear program but not one that can be weaponized, but it's unclear. And so again, if the whole goal of this military operation was to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon or even a nuclear program, is again unclear to what extent Iran is going to be willing to give up on that and what kind of actual framework is going or agreement is actually going to be reached in at the current current time.

[00:04:17]>> I know we're talking about this deal between the US and Iran, but we can't really leave Israel out of the conversation, especially when it comes to security concerns. What does all of this mean for Israel?

[00:04:31]>> That is yet another factor of why I think we have to be very cautious before we say this is a deal, peace has been achieved, because one of the key conditions that Iran has made for any type of peace agreement is that it has to be peace on all fronts. And from Iran's perspective, that means Lebanon, that means Israel's actions towards Hezbollah. And that has been something that, as many of us have witnessed, Israel has a different view on and in many ways a view that is different from President Trump's view on the issue.

[00:05:02]This is something that Trump himself has been irritated, if you will, and that's probably an understatement, about Israel's actions towards Hezbollah and his irritation that this is undermining the peace negotiations. So that is yet another reason why, if you will, there is still a lot of issues in play and there's still a lot of ways for this whole um deal, if you will, to fall apart.

[00:05:25]>> The G7 summit is going to be starting soon. Seven of the world's top leaders meeting in France. What does this mean to us? Why should we care about this?

[00:05:36]>> [laughter] >> Yes, that's a it's a it's a great question because they meet every year and they issue these declarations that you're like, okay, that sounds great, but you know, what What it actually amount to? And there are times where the G7 summit is truly just a good talk shop, where you see leaders come together, they maybe issue some statements, and they kind of go from there. But there have been other times where the G7 has led to meaningful economic cooperation, has led to agreements that has say led to um cooperation with respect to currencies, has led to cooperation on trade. And over time, the G7 has become more symbolically important as a representation of unity among those seven countries. And that is something that's going to be very important to watch right now in conjunction with the NATO summit that'll be happening because of all the tensions that have been flaring up recently between the US and its allies. Countries like Germany, countries like France, where there has been, you know, President Trump voicing displeasure about their unwillingness to help in the war in Iran, and these countries criticizing the US. Well, this is going to be an opportunity to see how much that tension has spilled over into other areas.

[00:06:52]>> Well, Professor Post, your expertise and your breakdown of this has been absolutely wonderful for all of us to understand. We appreciate you coming on Good Day Chicago. Thank you so much for your time.

[00:07:03]>> Thank you for having me.