El Nino Is Going To Ramp Up FAST - Here's What This Means for the Tropics...

Ajouté : 2026-05-30

[00:00:01]Good day to you. I'm Daniel Evangelista and welcome to today's tropical weather outlook for May 28th, 2026. It's a Thursday. Hope you are having a great day. Uh today we're going to talk about El Niño and the fact that it is going to ramp up quite a bit over the next several weeks as the atmosphere couples um much better in the Pacific with our developing El Niño and I'm going to talk about uh how much are we going to ramp up and what this might mean for the tropics going forward in the Pacific and even in the Atlantic. Uh we're going to go over all of that and more today and also not not just taking a look at what's going to happen tropics-wise in general, but also taking a look at tropical activity that's already happening right now. Um especially if you saw uh the National Hurricane Center's new highlighted area in the Pacific, but we'll go over that um in a moment.

[00:00:55]First, let's start off as we typically do by taking a look at these sea surface temperature anomalies right now in the globe and especially in the western hemisphere here.

[00:01:05]And you could see in the Pacific very very warm sea surface temperature anomalies continue to build especially along the equatorial Pacific um and you're already start you're already starting to see a lot of these very uh strong shadings here along the equatorial Pacific of anomalies as much as the as much as 2° C or higher um especially here um along the coast of South America, you could already see we have anomalies reaching the the high end of the scale as much as 3 to even 4° C um above normal and of course in general the entire eastern Pacific um is above normal right now with especially anomalies here near the coast of Mexico uh very very warm. And specifically taking a look at the Niño 3.4 region, which is where we monitor uh ENSO conditions, that's the area of the Pacific, which is roughly in between the eastern and central Pacific. So, in terms of a rough estimate of where the Niño 3.4 region is, it's roughly this area right here.

[00:02:11]Uh, and again, this area is the area that we typically look at when it comes to, uh, how strong is our ENSO event. And right now, according to the latest weekly averages from, uh, the Climate Prediction Center, the Niño 3.4 is at 0.5°C above normal. And 0.5°C is El Niño threshold. So, we are already seeing warming of the tropical Pacific enough so that we are basically, uh, approaching, uh, El Niño status, uh, oceanically. And we're And I mean, where we we pretty much are already there.

[00:02:47]And atmospherically, as well. And another way we could look at it, especially atmospherically, let's take a look at the SOI here. The latest SOI, um, the 30-day average today is at -11 points, uh, almost -12. And a negative SOI is very, very important because, um, if you've been following me for a long time, and especially through the many years we had La Niña, I would always say that positive seven, um, of an an SOI of positive seven is what we need in order to see, um, conditions favorable towards, uh, La Niña. The atmosphere responding like a La Niña. And that's what the SOI generally measures. It's a measure of the pressure patterns in the Pacific between Tahiti and Darwin.

[00:03:37]Um, and that generally helps us give give an generally gives us an idea, I should say, uh, in terms of how the atmosphere is actually behaving, rather than just taking a look at what the sea surface temperature anomalies are here on this map. And the fact that we have a very negative SOI and the threshold for El Nino on the other hand, I say the threshold for La Nina in the SOI is positive seven, for El Nino it is negative seven and right now the 30-day average is at negative 11. And the daily contribution is at negative 23. So, definitely in recent recent days we've been seeing a very strong atmospheric response that has been El Nino like in especially if we take a look at the daily contribution values of the last several days. In fact, let me actually check this box here because this gives us a chart of all the daily SOI values pretty much going all the way back till last month. And you could see pretty much since May 11th, so earlier this month, ever since then we have been very negative in terms of our daily SOI values. Some some days like especially just a few days ago here May 24th, we had a daily value of negative 31. So, the atmosphere is definitely beginning to respond very much like an El Nino.

[00:04:58]And how does this look like in terms of things going forward? Well, first of all, in the Pacific we have a lot of rising motion and we have an MJO that is moving through the Pacific and this is important because MJO, once again, means rising motion. That means where the atmosphere is favorable for um uh thunderstorms and moisture. And characteristic of El Nino is that we have a lot of rising motion centered in the Pacific. We have a Pacific standing wave in terms of the MJO.

[00:05:36]And here's the week one forecast from the CFS.

[00:05:39]And you could see very clearly, once again, just to give you give me give you an idea of how to read this map. Green represents the motion and favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorms and especially tropical development. We take a look at we often look at this map especially when it comes to looking at what areas will be favorable for tropical development in the world.

[00:06:03]And that's why we say the Pacific tends to be very active in an El Nino year because all of the rising motion, as we could see here in this week one forecast week one forecast from the CFS, all of the rising motion is centered in the Eastern Pacific. And as we go out into time here, the MJO kind of slides to the west here and becomes really amplified, especially as it gets into the Eastern Pacific. And this happens week two. So this happens in the first full week of June.

[00:06:33]And then it lasts here week three.

[00:06:36]And then week four it kind of moves back into the Central Pacific here.

[00:06:40]And then all the way out to the end of the forecast period you see that the MJO in the Pacific kind of stalls out and at times amplifies even further. So this is one major indicator, especially as we head in into the next several weeks, that the atmosphere is and will continue to adjust to and couple with El Nino.

[00:07:03]When you when you see rising motion centered like this, like we see on the CFS here in the Pacific. And obviously this will have a huge implication on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific basin, both Pacific basins in the West Pac and the East Pac.

[00:07:18]And I'll show you that in just a moment.

[00:07:20]But let's also take a look at what the European weekly is showing as well, just to kind of give you an idea of what the multiple different models are showing.

[00:07:28]And pretty much the same thing is is showing up here on the European. We have a wave of the MJO moving through the Pacific right now.

[00:07:37]It is obviously crossing into the Eastern Pacific and that's obviously helping in terms of triggering activity in the Eastern Pacific, and that's going to happen in the short-term within the next week or so, and I'll talk about that more again in just a little bit, but then it kind of traverses here into the Atlantic, and that's also what's helping with our Central American gyre pattern set up. If you've been following me, and I've been talking about that for the last several days, again, that pattern is very much triggered by the MJO moving through, but then notice, especially as we head into the long-term and as we get towards you know, down the map here, especially as we get into June, notice what happens with the rising ocean. It once again centers over the Pacific here, and kind of stalls out, and that definitely says that definitely tells me that it really looks like, especially as we get into June, the MJO will align fully [snorts] with an El Nino-like atmosphere, and that should definitely help El Nino strengthen. Why? Because if we look at the zonal wind anomalies, something that is very much affected by the MJO, notice here, especially in the tropical Pacific over the next coming weeks, how do I know that? I'm looking at the tropical Pacific here. Well, one, you on the bottom end of the scale here, you have a longitude graph, and 180 180°, that is the date line, that's kind of the central longitude of the Earth, also besides 0°, but we have the international date line here at 180°, and that's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of the Pacific, and you see a bunch of these oranges and reds popping up here with the zonal wind anomalies, and that means strong, consistent westerly wind bursts that is being forecasted by the European weekly, and this, again, starts all the way at the beginning of the time period here, which is mid to late May, and goes all the way down to the end of the forecast, which is late June. So, a long-range signal that we will see strong westerly wind bursts and persistent strong westerly wind bursts over the next several weeks in the Pacific.

[00:09:54]And let's take a look at that as well on the CFS here, the zonal wind anomalies for the 850 millibars, and you can see right throughout the Pacific here, very, very strong westerly, very, very strong westerly winds showing up. It gets even stronger, probably especially as the MJO really amplifies in the eastern Pacific.

[00:10:14]Week two, week three, it persists as well.

[00:10:18]And then week four, and then week five, and week six. All six weeks here have very strong westerly winds present in the Pacific.

[00:10:28]And that is very important. Because, as I mentioned before, westerly winds allow for all of the warm water that is below the surface, and I'll show you how the warm water pool is looking like in the Pacific in just a moment. But it allows for all of the warm water, first of all, especially when we have these strong westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific, it helps transport all of the warm water from the western Pacific in a conveyor belt eastward. It eventually surfaces in the eastern Pacific, and the more we get these strong westerly wind bursts, the more the warm water below the surface in the equatorial Pacific is able to surface. And from there, the waters just keep warming, and of course, that is how we get an El Niño. And especially in this in the case of this year, more than likely a very strong El Niño.

[00:11:17]And Andy Hazelton is also pointing that out. So, if you don't believe me that things are really that the atmosphere is really looking like it's going to couple over the next several weeks with this El Niño, and you don't believe the models that that showing you, Uh I have Andy Hazelton here and he's a very well-respected guy. He is a scientist at the University of Miami.

[00:11:39]Um and he's very well-respected on Twitter and then sometimes I like to show tweets from people like him, um especially people who know more than me.

[00:11:46]Um I'm going to be straight-up honest.

[00:11:48]Andy probably knows way more than me. Um and he even he says it, "This seems to be a classic coupled high-end El Niño event developing with a classic atmospheric response. It's not a Modoki and there's some talk online about what kind of El Niño this is going to be." Um and he says most importantly it's it's behaving exactly like strong El Niños do. And why does he say that? Well, from the maps that I showed you before, consistently strong westerly wind bursts here in the Pacific, um with a very very strong signal for a standing wave of rising motion in the eastern Pacific.

[00:12:27]And especially on the westerly wind front, again, what this does what this helps is it helps with the warm pool here that you could see um in the Pacific uh you know, subsurface. Uh and you could see especially over the last several weeks as we've gotten a bunch of these very strong westerly wind bursts as I described to you before, we have warm water that kind of starts out here in the western Pacific.

[00:12:53]And then as as we get more of these strong westerly wind bursts uh to you know, persist, eventually it pushes all of this warm water in a conveyor belt eastward into the eastern Pacific. Uh and then eventually as the atmosphere kind of responds to the fact that the ocean is warming, uh we see more westerly wind bursts in a response and that allows for all of the warm water here that is beneath the surface and there is a lot and I'll show you another and I'll kind of take it into a little bit of detail in just a moment. It allows for all of these warm waters to surface and you could already see that is what that is what is exactly beginning to happen. Classic strong El Niño look to the subsurface here, and just to show you how strong some of these anomalies are, this is a kind of more detailed graph. It has the indications of the different shadings here, and we have warm pool here, widespread anomalies 4 5 even 6° C in terms of water below the surface that is above normal, and we even have a few shades here of 7° C above normal above normal in terms of sea surface temperatures below the surface in the Pacific. So, we have a lot of warm water to work with, and that's also reflected as well, especially as you know, things have been coupling more of the last several weeks.

[00:14:17]Here's a look at the upper ocean heat content anomalies in the Pacific in the subsurface. And you could see especially all the way going back to last year.

[00:14:25]This graph even goes back to last year.

[00:14:27]Notice over time we had a building of the very very warm water in the western Pacific, and then as we started to get those strong westerly wind bursts over the last several months, we've seen that warm water begin to transport into the eastern Pacific. And now all of the warm water, especially all of the very very warm upper ocean heat content anomalies here, they are building and getting even stronger in the eastern Pacific. And you bet that as we get these very very strong westerly wind anomalies here over the next several weeks, which will allow for all of these very very warm waters here, especially you know, that are still below the surface to surface and show themselves on this graph here, you bet that El Niño is going to wrap up quite significantly um the next several weeks, and, you know, kind of taking it uh you know, showing it on the full picture here um over the next several months, we're probably going to continue to see a very rapid strengthening of this El Niño and because of that, because of the atmospheric response we're going to see here and again, all of the very warm sea surface temperature anomalies we have to work with, all of the models are very, very aggressive and I'm pretty sure you are well aware of this. All the models here are very aggressive on potentially a very strong El Niño this year and as you can see, this is the latest uh CFS forecast for the Niño 3.4 region. Again, the region that we look at for ENSO intensity and by the time we get to October and November here, so late in the year, in the fall, when El Niño typically peaks, uh they forecast a peak intensity here of a whopping 3° uh Celsius. So, quite an intense El Niño and if this were to happen, this would really be the strongest El Niño that has ever been um seen um on record, at least in our recent records and I and I'm sure you've probably heard about that a lot online. There's definitely been a lot of hype surrounding it, but um the models are definitely aggressive and it's not hard to see why, especially given just how much uh things are really going to come together here and are already coming together here and all the factors we have uh to work with this year. So, El Niño is really going to ramp up and it's obviously going to to result in a very strong, potentially nearly record-breaking El Niño uh when all is said and done.

[00:17:03]Uh and how is that going to affect tropical activity?

[00:17:08]Um as I mentioned before, westerly winds are very favorable for El Niño development, but westerly winds as well also really help for tropical cyclone development and you know, that's also one of the biggest indicators that we look at atmospherically in terms of seeing whether or not in an in in a certain area uh the atmosphere will be favorable for tropical development.

[00:17:29]And especially looking back at the CFS here uh within the next 1 to 2 weeks you could see we have very very strong westerly wind bursts uh in the western Pacific especially and then it especially spreads really into the eastern Pacific as we get into week two.

[00:17:46]Well, those westerly wind bursts are already resulting in activity in the western Pacific right now. Currently, we have tropical storm uh Jangmi. I think that's how you say it, Jangmi. Um and this storm here might actually become a pretty intense storm um as it moves northward and maybe uh let's gets close to Japan. And there's also something else as well showing up in a signal wise in the South China Sea.

[00:18:16]And as I'll show you in a little bit, there's also things beginning to pop up in the eastern Pacific as well and it makes sense given that the Pacific is really going to become much more favorable here over the next several weeks. So, you're already starting to see the fruits of the favorability in the atmosphere here with something in the western Pacific. Here's a satellite shot of tropical storm Jangmi um and you can see it's kind of a broad system right now, although it definitely looks like a tropical system. Um and the broadness, while it's probably going to result in a very strong storm, um might kind of, you know, temper and lower the ceiling a little bit in terms of how strong it will be able to get because it's going to consolidate, it's going to take a little bit of time to consolidate uh which might take away from time it may have to intensify.

[00:19:07]Um but either way, taking a look at the model guidance here for Jangmi, it's going to move northward um over time, move over the very warm waters of the western Pacific and then eventually in about 5 days or so, get very close to if not potentially clip portions of the Japanese coastline.

[00:19:26]And then taking a look at the intensity forecast here, it's again expected to become a pretty intense storm. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast expects this to get as high as 95 knots and 95 knots if you're not familiar with the knots to miles per hour conversion system, 95 knots is roughly 110 miles per hour. So, that is high-end Cat 2 approaching Category 3 hurricane equivalent status here. So, pretty intense typhoon that is brewing up here in the Pacific or in the western Pacific and of course that is a result of all these westerly wind bursts that are happening right now in the Pacific as the atmosphere continues to shift more towards an El Nino-like environment. And on the other hand, as the western Pacific is clearly becoming more favorable, so is the eastern Pacific because now we officially have our first area of interest here for the Pacific hurricane season.

[00:20:28]A 20% chance right now in the eastern Pacific kind of closer to the central Pacific here and the models have actually picked up on the potential for something to develop here, probably a short-lived storm in the eastern Pacific and it's not going to really amount to amount to much. It's going to stay away far away from the Mexican coastline. So, there's that, but something already popping up here in the eastern Pacific and just to really quickly show you the ensembles first off with the Google AI ensembles.

[00:20:59]You can see especially within the next week or so here, something really begins to pop up here in the eastern Pacific.

[00:21:07]Some of the ensembles showing maybe a a decently strong storm. Most of the ensembles show this being a weak storm though. I think the stronger storm in the the storm that will more than likely have more potential to actually be something formidable and will need to watch here in the Eastern Pacific and this is closer towards the end of the time frame is whatever that tries to get going here closer to the Mexican coastline. If we take a look at the European ensembles as well, they also show quite a bit associated with the area of interest here that the National Hurricane Center has highlighted uh and as well quite a few ensembles here um in the Eastern Pacific closer to the Mexican coastline. So maybe within the next 2 weeks uh we might have to start watching out for our for our friends here in Mexico.

[00:21:55]And again, this is all a product of things becoming more favorable as we have these very strong westerly wind bursts as a result of uh El Niño beginning to couple with the atmosphere and that being a result of the MJO really beginning to amplify here over the next several weeks in the Pacific.

[00:22:15]And obviously all of these things are going to kind of contribute to each other.

[00:22:19]Um more activity in the Pacific and the tropics beginning to wake up and El Niño getting stronger and taking a look at the GFS as well to the kind of see how things play out here on the operational model. Uh and you could see something here getting going in the Central Pacific or closer to the Central Pacific. I mean, this is still the Eastern Pacific, but you could see something getting going right around the area where um you know, our AOI is here according to the National Hurricane Center.

[00:22:48]Uh it's a very small system and more than likely once again, probably not going to become very strong, although it does last for a little bit. Uh and then of course in the uh you know, near Central America, we do have our Central American gyre here and the GFS is kind of aggressive in terms of trying to take this northward um and trying to consolidate it in the Gulf of America. Um most models have, you know, more of the action happening in the Eastern Pacific.

[00:23:17]Although, if I show you the European here uh let me bring you to the zero Z.

[00:23:22]Uh first of all, again, you can see we do have a system here that gets going in the next 7 days in the Eastern Pacific and that definitely looks like a pretty decent signature here. So, this is what you got to look for if you're trying to look for tropical development vorticity-wise.

[00:23:38]Um but of course, we also have our Central American gyre pattern that sets up here.

[00:23:43]Uh and interestingly enough, let me bring you to the Atlantic side here, the European with the Central American gyre set up in the zero Z run actually decided to lift some of this energy up and you could see uh I don't want to see that.

[00:24:01]Uh some energy here does try to consolidate. You do see that we get some isobars to develop in the vorticity kind of um you know, we see darker shades of the vorticity here. That's definitely a tropical system here that the European tries to show develop in the Northern Gulf and this happens within pretty much the next week. So, not in an unreasonable time frame.

[00:24:25]Uh and I've been saying the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic should watch and I mean, the Atlantic is definitely going to get some help clearly uh from the Central American gyre. And it's one thing when we look at the GFS and it shows a strong hurricane that, you know, quickly develops from the Central American gyre lifting northward in the Caribbean because, you know, that's how the bias works on the GFS, but the European showing it, too? The European showing something?

[00:24:54]Uh we'll see. It's definitely an interesting signal here and definitely a reminder that hurricane season is nearby and then just taking a look at the European ensembles here really quickly to close off in the Atlantic.

[00:25:05]Obviously, you could see quite a few ensembles here showing activity in the Eastern Pacific over the next several weeks especially as we get towards the two-week timeframe really starting to see a bunch of things show up here but also lots of low pressures as well near Central America you know, they dilly dally around here but some lift northward to the Gulf there are a few ensemble members here not a lot there's still a little bit of uncertainty with the models and especially in the Atlantic the Central American the Central American gyre setups early on in the season tend to be pretty messy but there still are a few ensembles it's not like there's nothing so you know what that means really going to have to watch the tropics here over the next several weeks as they continue to heat up and as hurricane season swings into full gear.

[00:25:54]With that being said though I'm going to end it off for today's video it was a pretty long one I'm not sure how long it was but I'm probably going to look back and see the timestamps here but I will not be surprised if I see a very long one but if you enjoy these long videos I would really appreciate if you especially show your love by liking the video clicking the like button clicking the subscribe button as well cuz we're going to be doing these daily tropical updates um or we're going to be doing these tropical updates on a daily basis that's what I meant to say that's how I meant to frame it so if you're interested in that please make sure to subscribe and we will be watching everything that happens here in the Eastern Pacific in the Atlantic especially see if the Gulf actually materializes and of course too occasionally especially when we have something in the Western Pacific we will watch it as well. Thanks for watching enjoy the rest of your day stay safe peace love and kindness to you all and I'll talk to you guys again tomorrow.