Why This Market Could Be Closer to Collapse Than Investors Think | Peter Grandich

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Can you jog our memory, jog our memory Peter and tell us what happened in 2000? Let's go back to the start of the dot com bubble, the the beginning of the end of our tech stocks back in the dot com era. So, what was the trigger for the collapse? Any signs that showed that stocks were cracking or about to crack that people may have seen? And then of course as you know, the house of cards fell you know, seemingly overnight. Now, we don't want to wait till after that happens to be positioned accordingly. We want to see the signs when they occur.

[00:00:37]So, let's go back to 2000, what happened and let's see if anything similar is happening today. Yeah, so there's a wonderful book. It's well known throughout Wall Street. It's been around for decades. It's called the Intelligent Investor.

[00:00:50]In fact, it's been circling around a man now of people throw it in the garbage as if it doesn't count anymore because those factors don't apply to where the market is now. Not only is that totally wrong, more now than ever. The end result is people try to change or in sense say there is no gravity. Gravity doesn't exist. And these are the reasons why. And so, what happened was there were companies that not only had no sales, but people were basing their whole valuation on how many times somebody hit their website when we all knew that fundamentally longer term you're going to need a lot more than that. And that's what turned in myself back then to be bearish. The problem now is this David and this is probably the most urgent point I can say is the United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than anytime other than the major declines. 2000 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929.

[00:01:54]And one of the biggest reason is we can no longer be self-sufficient. We went from the world's largest credited nation when I entered the business in the early '80s to an extremely indebted country that now depends on printing money and outside people for us to keep living the lifestyle we grown accustomed to. And that's the biggest difference of the other previous crashes including 2000.

[00:02:19]I want to come back to bonds cuz that's important point you just made you just brought up Peter.

[00:02:23]What is going to trigger this house of cards collapse right now? Is it going to be a CapEx spending slowing down? Is it going to be China coming up with an announcement?

[00:02:32]Um, you know, escalation of Iran oil going higher. There could be a number of risks. Uh, but so far nothing I've mentioned has caused the S&P to decline beyond what it's already done and recovered then some. So, you know, what's the trigger for this for this for this bearish action here? First will be interest rates which the market had made a huge bet last year would be going down especially with the new Fed chair which now the more likelihood is that they'll be an interest rate rise not lowered interest rates. And And the number is very simple.

[00:03:09]5% on the 10-year. The 10-year gets above 5% and the market hasn't at least corrected hard then don't don't ever listen to Peter Grandich again. And there may be people that are already at that point. But the bottom line is interest rates will be the first most important one. Bonds are starting to concern even some of the more bullish houses, bullish hedge fund managers, etc. of what's happening there.

[00:03:33]The economics. Many people believe that the economics is only held up because of this thinness of how AI and what was spent, but we're seeing things turn on AI not only from the technology and all itself, but people in America now getting concerned about all these data centers learning how much more the electricity is going up, how much water is being used. We're actually seeing data centers not able to open now. That is a growing issue that can impact that at all. But, the third one I think is going to be the biggest of it all, and that's political. Both geopolitical, as you talked about China and all, and politics here.

[00:04:11]Trump is People will your comment section will be full of people he's a Trump hater. No, I voted for Trump three times. Now, did I buy into everything he said? No. But, I can tell you Trump's turn in less than a year where it helped the stock market a year ago is now turning against it.

[00:04:30]And I think as we get closer to the election, especially as we get into June and July when the primaries start to hit, politics is going to play an increasing role. Two things were said on Friday, and Dave, let me just be on record with this. Not only did we have a president come out and show that he's been buying all sorts of stocks that he's talking about publicly without ever disclosing he owned them. But, then we had the speaker of the house at a press conference basically say to the America, "Hey, listen, our Congress people aren't paid enough. They have to buy stocks in order to supplement their income." I'm going to tell you something. If I was a Democratic consultant, and I'm not, those are the two points that I think and I think we will see them focus on that. And I think the political strength that Trump gave to the economy and the belief of people hoping things were going to get better, etc., etc., is now been knocked out from under his feet, and that's going to be the other trigger to lead the stock market lower. If you liked this clip, then like the video and share it with your friends. And if you want to watch the entire full-length long-form video, then check out the link in the description down below.