MSTR Price Analysis: The 200 Dollar Target

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]So the MSTR chart is currently pulling back here into the support zone. The price pushed a little bit higher. We had earnings uh release but no major changes since yesterday and the price has now tested the very first micro support area that I communicated yesterday. So what we want to do, we want to take a look at the micro patterns and see if the bulls do still have a chance. So, if we zoom out here, you know, for me, this move up from the February low is a clear three-wave advance. I have labeled it as an A B C pattern to the upside. I And as you can probably see here, most of the rally is likely done in this C-wave.

[00:00:43]Surely, we could stretch a little bit higher. You know, we could reach this red resistance zone. The $200 level would be clearly an ideal target because this is the first main Fibonacci retracement. But look, we've already moved $293 for me. The risk is now increasing, but we haven't got a top.

[00:01:01]For a top confirmation, we would need to see at the very least a break below micro support and or a fivewave decline.

[00:01:09]Both would help. Um question is what would be the very first signal of a top?

[00:01:14]Because until we actually have a top confirmed, the market can still move higher. The nearest support zone is still here, the one that I shared yesterday, $16,355 to $17,7749.

[00:01:27]And if you know, as long as we have only three-wave pullbacks into this support zone, um, which end above $16,355, I would continue to watch for another high. But please note that should we get a fivewave decline below $16355.

[00:01:47]So basically one more lower high and one more lower low then this is a first indication we have a top not a massive confirmation but the first confirmation and then I'd say a break also below this last swing low here that formed at $156.70 the 29th of April low. That would then be the next level to watch. Basically, until we break even the upper micro support area, uh we don't have a sign of a top yet. And the move to $200 plus can still happen. So, and if you're wondering why the internal fifth wave to the upside that we have on the chart here should be an ABC structure, well, that is simply Elliot wave rules and guidelines applied. The wave 1 should be an ABC structure. It's a three-wave move. The wave three should be a three-wave move as well here based on that because if a wave 1 is a three-wave move then the third wave has to be the same structure and then the fifth wave as well because this is a so-called diagonal pattern at least the micro structures are not impulsive. So yeah know that this is not wrong. This is perfectly in line with the rules and guidelines. So we're currently testing support. We're just below resistance.

[00:02:58]And the question is always, how do we integrate this into the bigger picture?

[00:03:05]And guys, the MSTR higher time frame chart is here on the time frame on the daily time frame. Um, clearly visible.

[00:03:13]The structure is clearly visible. The move to the upside from the low in January, February is seen as a three-wave move. And I currently treat it as a B-wave bounce. and we are approaching this larger resistance area.

[00:03:29]And when we get a fivewave decline from this resistance area, it could be an indication rather even a confirmation that the C-wave down has started. That is also what I'm watching for on the Bitcoin chart. And um yeah, this could mean that we are not done yet with the correction, but a counter trend move to the upside was overdue. Anyway, I'll keep you updated about any changes. Make sure you subscribe. Thanks so much.

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