I Asked AI To Predict The 2028 Election... JAW-DROPPING RESULTS!

Ajouté : 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]In this video, I asked Grock AI to predict the 2028 presidential election, and the results were unbelievable. The AI model forecast several key battlegrounds being decided by less than 1%, and it gave me results for every single state. So, today, we're going to fill in the 2028 electoral map based on Grock's projections to see who will come out on top in the race to succeed President Trump. But first, we need candidates. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kla Harris sits at the top of early primary polling with 27% support, seven points ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsome, who is garnering just 20. In third, we have former Transportation Secretary Pete Budajed, Congresswoman AOC in fourth, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro comes in fifth. While Nuome doesn't lead in our polling average, he is by far the favorite to be his party's nominee.

[00:00:54]According to the market odds on Koshi, Newsome has a 1 in4 chance of winning the next Democratic primary well ahead of Harris at just 10. And so for this matchup, we're going to use Gavin Newsome as the Democratic candidate. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been surging over the past three months. Although Vice President JD Vance still leads in every poll, Rubio has climbed from less than 10% early in the year to 16% support today. In a close third, we have Donald Trump Jr. at 14%, while Florida Governor Ronda Santis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who both ran for president in 2024, round out the top five.

[00:01:36]According to the market odds on Khi, Vance is the favorite. But Rubio's rise here is even more dramatic, going from 11% at the beginning of the year to 23% today. Given this, we're going to select Rubio, not Vance, as the Republican candidate. So, we have our matchup set, Rubio versus Newsome. To begin, we're going to fill in the solid states for both candidates, races that Grock gives to either Rubio or Newsome by margins of 15 percentage points or more. Starting off with Rubio, AI predicts that he will easily win in Utah. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, all of Nebraska except its second district.

[00:02:14]Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, and South Carolina. These are states where Republicans have a very strong floor. And even with Newsome at the top of the Democratic ticket, Grog does not believe that they will be competitive. In Wyoming, Rubio is on track to win by more than 40 points. In West Virginia, he wins by around 38. in Oklahoma, Idaho, and North Dakota. He also wins by more than 30. These are some of the reddest states in the entire country, and Newsome simply doesn't have a path to contest them. Turning our attention now to the Democrats, Gavin Newsome is going to breeze by in Washington, Oregon, his home state of California, Hawaii, New York, Vermont, the first district of Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Illinois. The more interesting states here are Illinois and New York as they both moved noticeably to the right in 2024 and Democrats underperformed in places that were once considered completely safe. However, Grock believes that Newsome will be able to recover enough support to win Illinois by around 15 and a half and New York by just over 15, returning both of them to the solid blue category.

[00:03:29]And so with the solid states now filled in for both candidates, AI predicts that Newsome will lead with 167 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Rubio is at just 122.

[00:03:40]We're now going to move on to filling in the likely states, races that Grock projects will go either way by margins of 5 to 15 points. These races are going to be a bit more competitive, but it's still pretty clear who they're going to vote for. Starting off with Rubio once again, the two most important likely red states are Texas and Florida. In Texas, President Trump won by double digits back in 2024, but by just around 6% in 2020 against Joe Biden. The state has definitely shifted to the right in the last few years, but it's still not quite solid Republican. Democrats continue to make gains in the suburbs around Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. And Grock does believe that Newsome can keep the margin somewhat close, but he is nowhere near flipping the state. Rubio wins Texas by around eight points, giving him a whopping 40 electoral votes. And then we have Florida, which is Rubio's home state. Florida used to be the ultimate swing state, as in 2012, Barack Obama won it by less than 1%. In 2016, Trump carried it by just over 1% and then he expanded his margin to 3.4 four in 2020 and then to an astonishing 13.1 just four years later against Kla Harris. Today, Florida is pretty clearly a red state. And with Rubio at the top of the ticket, Grock does not think it'll be competitive. He wins Florida by around 12 points, which is not quite enough to be solid, but still a very comfortable, likely Republican win. Next up, we have Ohio. Another state that used to be extremely competitive as Obama won Ohio twice in both 2008 and 2012 against Mitt Romney. However, in 2016, Trump flipped to Buckeye State, taking it by 8%. It has never looked back since as it voted for him by a similar margin in 2020 and then by 11 in 2024. Grock does not believe that Newsome is the type of Democrat that can bring Ohio back into play. And so Rubio carries the state by around 9%.

[00:05:38]And then we have Iowa, which followed a pretty similar pattern. It voted for Obama in '08 and 2012, but it's become significantly more Republican since then. President Trump took it by 13 points against Harris in 2024, and in 2028, Grock believes that Rubio will win by around seven and a half points. So Iowa will also be likely red. We also have the second district of Maine. It's been pretty consistently in the likely Republican column over the last few election cycles. This will give Rubio an additional one electoral vote. And then finally, we have the race in Alaska, which is going to go in the likely Republican column as well. Democrats have done a little better in some statewide races, particularly with Mary Poto winning a house seat there in 2022, but at the presidential level, it's still very much Republican and Groas Rubio winning by around eight points.

[00:06:30]And so with all of the solid and likely Republican states now filled in, Rubio jumps all the way to 219 electoral votes. I mean, he got 70 from just Texas and Florida alone, meaning he is now just 51 votes away from the 270 needed to win. We do have quite a few likely states for Newsome, though, and we're going to start out west with Colorado and New Mexico. Colorado used to be a competitive state in the early 2000s, but Democrats have pretty much taken control since. New Mexico is going to be a little bit closer, especially because Rubio does better with Hispanic voters.

[00:07:03]However, Newsome still carries it by around 6 to7. Next up, we have Virginia, which Democrats have won in every presidential election since 2008. And Grock does not believe that changes in 2028. Northern Virginia has simply become too large and too Democratic. And while Rubio will keep the state somewhat competitive, Newsome still wins by around six points. Virginia will also be in the likely blue column.

[00:07:29]And then we have New Jersey, which is no longer the solid blue stronghold it once was. In 2024, Kla Harris carried the Garden State by less than 6%. If you compare this to Biden's nearly 16point margin from 2020, you'll see exactly why this was so disappointing for the Democratic party. Grock does not believe that the state will immediately go back to being a 15-point Democratic win, but it also doesn't think that Rubio will actually flip it. Newsome wins New Jersey by around eight points and it'll be placed into the likely Democratic category. And then finally, Newsome will carry Maine's atlarge vote by around six points, giving him two of the states four split electoral votes. Maine as a whole is still left-leaning even though the second district is very conservative. And so with the likely states now filled in, Rubio is at 219 electoral votes while Newsome is at 211.

[00:08:19]We're now left with just a handful of battleground states. And these are the races that will actually decide the outcome of the next presidential election. We have states in the Sunb Belt, in the Upper Midwest, and New Hampshire up in the Northeast. Whoever wins enough of the remaining 108 electoral votes will become elected the 48th president. And before we continue, only 14% of you guys are actually subscribed. So, make sure you subscribe right now for more content just like this and follow me on X at electiontime for daily polling updates. Coming back to the map, we're now going to finish it off with the lean and tilt states.

[00:08:55]Starting off with the lean races. These are states that Grock gives to either candidate by margins of 1 to 5%. These elections are going to be incredibly tight, but one candidate still does have a slight edge. And so starting off with Rubio once again, we're going to begin down south in Georgia, a state that Joe Biden actually won back in 2020 when he defeated Trump by less than a quarter of a percentage point, becoming the first Democrat to win the Peach State on the presidential level since 1992. But in 2024, Trump flipped Georgia back, defeating Kla Harris by a little over 2%. Georgia has shifted a lot to the left over the last two decades, as back in 2004, George W. Bush won it by a solid margin. Mitt Romney won it pretty easily in 2012 as well, and even Trump carried Georgia by a likely margin in 2016. However, ever since Biden's win in 2020, the state has never looked back.

[00:09:45]In fact, Democrats currently control both of Georgia's Senate seats. But on the whole, Grock still sees Georgia as slightly more Republican than Democratic, especially in a matchup between Rubio and Newsome. New Summit will do well in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs, but Rubio holds enough rural support and wins enough suburban voters to carry the state by around two and a half points. Georgia will be lean Republican.

[00:10:09]Next up, we have North Carolina. This is the only one of the battlegrounds on this map that Trump won in all three of his presidential campaigns. In 2016, he won it by 3.7, his largest margin. In 2020, he took it by 1.3. And most recently in 2024, Trump defeated Kla Harris by 3.2. 2. Grock does have Newsome coming close in the Tarheel state, but not close enough. Republicans have a very strong floor in North Carolina, and Rubio does still end up winning the state by around three points according to our AI prediction. This is about the same as Trump's margin from 2024. And so, North Carolina will be placed into the lean GOP category. And with Georgia and North Carolina now filled in, Rubio rises to 251 electoral votes, just 19 away from the presidency.

[00:10:55]We do have some lean states for Newsome, though, and the first is Minnesota.

[00:10:59]Republicans have been targeting the state for years, especially after Trump lost it by just a point and a half in 2016. Hillary Clinton came so close to losing a state that no Republican had won at the presidential level since 1972.

[00:11:14]Grock doesn't believe that this streak ends with this matchup, and so it doesn't have the state getting nearly as close as it did 10 years ago. Newsome is on track to win Minnesota by around two and a half points. mainly because of his support from the Twin Cities and their surrounding suburbs. Rubio does do well in rural Minnesota, but not quite well enough to flip the state. Minnesota will be lean Democratic. The California governor will also carry Nebraska's second congressional district by around three points. Centered around Omaha, the district has become a lot more competitive in recent years, especially after both Biden and Harris won it by narrow margins in the last two presidential cycles. Grock believes Newsome will hold on to it in 2028, giving him an additional one electoral vote. And so with the solid, likely, and lean states now filled in for both candidates, Rubio leads with 251 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Newsome is at 222.

[00:12:07]We're now going to move on to finishing up the map with the tilt states, races that Grock gives to either candidate by margins of less than 1%. These are essentially pure toss-ups, but Grock still has assigned one candidate to be the very slight favorite. We have five races in this category and they are going to decide the outcome of the next presidential election. We're going to begin out west in Nevada, which would actually be a flip for Democrats if Newsome wins here. As in 2024, President Trump became the first Republican to take the silver state in 20 years.

[00:12:38]Nevada has become a lot more competitive in the last few presidential cycles. In 2020, it voted for Joe Biden by 2.4.

[00:12:44]before and then of course in 2024 it went to Trump by 3.1. Nevada also recently elected a Republican governor that being Joe Lombardo back in 2022 in a huge upset over the incumbent Democrat Steve Sisilac. Democrats do still hold both of Nevada Senate seats though although they came very close to losing one of them with Katherine Cortez Masto in 2022 as well. And so Nevada is going to be one of the closest states in the country but with six electoral votes it's not going to be overly consequential. Grock has Newsome coming out on top by a very slim margin. And a big reason for this is the fact that he's going to be able to campaign pretty easily in Nevada given its proximity to California. And so the silver state will be tilt blue on our map, giving the California governor six electoral votes.

[00:13:31]And then in neighboring Arizona, we have another state that's gone through a pretty significant political transformation over the past decade or so. In 2012, Mitt Romney easily won by nearly double digits. Although in 2016 with the advent of Trump, that margin fell to just 3.5 for Republicans. Four years later, Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996. However, in 2024, Trump easily won the state back, defeating Kla Harris by a likely 5point margin. And so in 2028, Grock does have Rubio holding on to Arizona, but only by around 8/10en of a percentage point. Newsome is going to do well in the inner cities, but Rubio's strength with older voters and Hispanic voters will be enough to push him over the top. And so Arizona will be tilt red, giving Rubio an additional 11 electoral votes.

[00:14:20]Moving on over to the Midwest, we're going to start with Michigan, which is the most liberal of the three former blue wall states. Joe Biden won it by nearly three points in 2020, although Democrats did subsequently lose it right after to Trump, who also won it by over 1% in 2024. And so, Michigan does tend to vote to the left of both of its Midwestern neighbors. And so, Grock does believe that Gavin Newsome will be able to do well in the urban areas of Ann Arbor and Detroit in order to push him over the finish line in the Wolverine State. Michigan is going to be till the blue, giving Newsome a crucial 15 electoral vote boost. He won't be nearly so lucky in Wisconsin, though, which is the only state that's been decided by less than 1% in all three of the last three presidential elections. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 3/4s of a percentage point before losing it to Biden by 0.63 and then winning it back against Harris in 2024 by 0.86.

[00:15:19]In 2028, Grock projects that Wisconsin will be a tilt state for the fourth time in a row with Rubio barely edging out Nuome, but this will be enough to give the Secretary of State the electoral votes he needs to cross 270 with Wisconsin's 10 now in his corner. In Pennsylvania, Republicans have had a lot of recent successes here, particularly the election of David McCormack to the US Senate when he defeated three-term incumbent Bill Casey in the biggest upset of the 2024 election. According to Grock, Republicans will win the Keystone State again in 2028, but just barely with a margin of 0.3% in favor of Rubio.

[00:15:56]However, a win is a win, especially given Pennsylvania's huge 19 electoral vote prize.

[00:16:02]And then finally, we're left with just New Hampshire. The Granite State is generally left-leaning, but it has had a Republican governor for the past decade.

[00:16:11]And in 2016, Trump actually got within half a percentage point of defeating Hillary Clinton. In fact, New Hampshire was the second closest state of the entire election behind only Michigan.

[00:16:22]Both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decided by larger margins. In 2028, Grock forecasts that New Hampshire will flip in favor of Rubio, who it believes is the type of Republican that can finally win New Hampshire for the first time since 2000. And so, this will give the GOP an additional four electoral votes. And so, this is it. This is Gro AI's prediction for the 2028 presidential election in a matchup between Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsome.

[00:16:50]The model has Rubio winning 295 electoral votes while Newsome finishes with 243. Rubio is projected to flip New Hampshire while Newsome flips both Michigan and Nevada, but it doesn't end up being enough. Thank you guys so much for watching this video. Make sure you like it if you enjoyed it. Comment down below whether or not you agree with Grock's prediction and make sure you subscribe to the channel for more content just like this. And if you're wondering where I got all of my primary polling data from, make sure you visit plesmax.com.