Cardano (ADA) - DANGER!! (2026 / 2027 Price Prediction)

[00:00:03]Welcome to another Cardano update. Like always, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon if you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates. So, in this video I want to start with Bitcoin and the reason for that is because Bitcoin right now got rejected by resistance. So, I think that in the next couple of days, maybe even weeks, we're going to get a big move to the downside. And right now if we break below this support zone, which is between $62,000 and $61,000, a move to around $48,000 going to happen. And while this move is going to happen, I'm expecting ADA to obviously get to the 0.618 support level right there on the 4-hour. And that maybe find some kind of bottom there, but we could overextend maybe to like 10.9 cents. But yeah, we got rejected and let's quickly talk about the setup for a second. I think it's important to understand what's going on here. After the all-time high, we formed a 1 2 3 4 5 setup for the A wave. Then we formed an ABC for the B wave. And I think that we are currently in the C wave to the downside.

[00:01:04]Of that C wave, we do have some kind of 1 2 setup already.

[00:01:09]In the second wave to the upside, we got rejected by the 0.382 resistance level.

[00:01:13]And this move to the upside from that low to that high was an ABC which fits perfectly with the fact that this was a second wave move up. And right now we tried going up again. And what is interesting is that this was also some kind of 1 2 setup to the downside. We, you know, got rejected exactly by the 0.618 resistance level. I gave it yesterday. And right now we are going down. So, I think that what we are working on right now could be a much bigger third wave of a third wave of a third wave. Because like I said, we have a 1 2 setup here and I think that we're going to start the third wave. And if this was indeed a much bigger 1 2 for that third wave, what we're going to get next is going to be very impulsive and it's going to be a move to maybe like $50,000. Then after that, we're going to expect a fourth wave of that third wave.

[00:01:56]And then the fifth wave is expected to put us between $48,000 and $42,000 depending on where the third wave is going to bottom. But, yeah, that's only the third wave of the C wave, and then after that I think that we're going to get a move maybe to the bull market support band. I don't know when exactly, maybe August or September, and that's going to be a fourth of the upside.

[00:02:18]Then later in the year when everybody thinks that the bear market is over, that's when we get a final drop in October, maybe at the beginning of October, and that's when we get to the C wave target. The minimum target for that is at $37,800, but yeah, it could easily overextend way below that. In every single bear market so far we got to at least the 1.618 of the A wave in the C wave down. So, I think that the drop like 37K is realistic if we're just going to do exactly what we did every single bear market so far. But, yeah, moving on to the daily chart on Cardano, I have to talk about the RSI for a second.

[00:02:51]Yesterday, I warned you that if we drop below the moving average on the RSI again, and if we close below it again, this is going to lead to the price breaking down. By the looks of it, we closed below it, so yeah, I think this is going to get invalidated. This ABC setup is going to get completely invalidated, and that's going to put us at 13 cents like I said. I mean, here on the 4-hour chart we have almost been invalidated, so it doesn't really matter if we start to move to the upside right now.

[00:03:16]I do not really see a C wave starting anymore. I think a move to like 23.9 cents is most likely not going to happen, at least based on what's happening with Bitcoin and what's happening with the S&P 500 chart, which I'm going to talk about as well. But, yeah, we'll see where do we bottom.

[00:03:31]Obviously, maybe we're not going to bottom at 13 cents, maybe we're going to bottom at much lower prices. But, during that time hopefully we can form some bullish divergence on the RSI. The RSI on the daily is currently at 29, which is oversold and it's very low. But, I mean, here for example, back in June, it went to about 12, and we are currently at pretty much the exact same prices, but the RSI is higher. So, I think that even if we go down right now, let's say we get to like 10 cents or so or 13 cents, as long as you manage to form some kind of higher low right there, and then as long as you manage to get a bounce off the support levels, that could lead to some bullish divergence, and that could lead to a further move to the upside, and that's expected to happen when Bitcoin gets its fourth wave as well.

[00:04:15]And then at the end of the year, just like Bitcoin, we're expected to get a final drop to be I mean below the third wave lows, depending on on where we're going to go in the third wave, and that's going to be the fifth wave, or a much bigger ABC to the downside. So, basically here in the previous bear market, we formed a 1 2 3 4 5 for the A wave. This move to the upside from that low to that previous cycle high was the B wave. This was an ABC, and we got rejected exactly by the 0.618 resistance level right there. And right now, I think that we are currently working on the C wave to the downside of this AB of the C wave. We already have a 1 2 3, and we're currently trying to overextend the third wave. After we get the third wave, I'm expecting a fourth wave, like I said, and the fifth wave could hopefully find us a bottom and complete a much bigger second wave to the upside of this much bigger 1 2. And what comes after the second wave? It's a third wave. Are we going to get it next cycle? I have no idea. Of course, it's not going to get completed in one cycle, and to even confirm at the lowest end after we get that move to the downside, we're going to need to get some kind of five-wave move up followed by some kind of ABC down.

[00:05:23]So, let's say we find the bottom at like maybe 8 cents or so, something like that, and then we form some kind of 1 2 3 4 5 setup. Even if we get that five-wave move up, the only way to confirm that this was actually the bear market low would be to also get an ABC down and find support there, and then get above the previous first wave high during the move to the upside right there. And why am I saying that? Well, because we kind of did the exact same thing right here. We tried starting a much bigger one to set up after Bitcoin bottomed back in December, and this only ended up being a fakeout. We didn't get above the bottom market support band, but this was not really 1 2 3 4 5. At best, you could maybe say this was some kind of ABC, but I don't really see it.

[00:06:05]And because we were not able to hold above support levels and they moved to the downside right there, that's what gave us a final drop. That's also what happened back in this area right here.

[00:06:15]Now, you could say maybe this drop because of the pandemic, but then again, after this move to the upside happened from about, let's say 2.6 cents to around 10 cents, we still went down in the short term to test the support zone, and we got a reaction pretty much at the 0.786, which is not really great. But, that's what you have to understand. Once we complete the third wave, we're going to need a fourth to the upside, and if that move to the upside does not happen, it's going to mean that in this bear market, just like in the previous couple of bear markets, ADA might bottom 6 months after Bitcoin. Let's say we bottomed in around October on the Bitcoin chart. That's going to mean that ADA is going to probably bottom in April of 2027, and not when Bitcoin is going to bottom. But, if ADA just follows what Bitcoin does, and if it just continues to get a move to the downside right now, and then if it starts a fourth wave later in the year, and it gets a final drop in, let's say, August, or not August, I'm sorry, October, that's going to be enough to complete a 1 2 3 4 5. If we do not get a five-wave move down completed, then the, you know, chance of us getting a final drop in 2027 is always going to be there.

[00:07:22]Just another reminder that on the monthly RSI, we're still waiting for ADA to get to the oversold territory for the first time ever. The RSI is currently at about 36, and to get oversold, we need 30. So, I think I could see the price maybe getting to like, I don't know, 10 cents or so, especially if Bitcoin decides to drop to like $40,000 very soon.

[00:07:41]Also, from where we're are at right now, for Bitcoin to drop to like maybe $45,000, let's see how much we're going to have to go down for that. So, we're going to have to go down at least maybe 28% or in the worst case scenario in the short term, about 36%. As you know, in the bear markets, ADA likes to go down a bit more than Bitcoin. So, we could expect maybe 45% drop from where we are at right now, especially if ADA Bitcoin decides to continue going down and it's pretty much just going down quite a lot right now. So, a 45% worth of the downside would put us maybe even below our support levels and maybe at like 8 cents. Are we going to bottom there? I have no idea. I mean, we could always drop at the 0.786 support level at 5.5 cents.

[00:08:26]But, of course, once we do that, if we do that, everybody's going to call ADA dead.

[00:08:32]Even though after the first bull market, we had a similar story, the price pretty much stopped exactly where we topped back in this cycle, and then we went from like $1.30 to like 2 cents, and we still managed to recover after that.

[00:08:44]But, this recovery only started after a 1 2 3 4 5 setup was completed, and right now we don't have that. So, yeah, could we get to like 5 cents? Maybe, but I think only if Bitcoin decides to drop to like maybe $25,000.

[00:08:58]I do not see ADA dropping to like 5 cents unless something very bad happens.

[00:09:03]I also mentioned that I'm going to talk about the S&P 500 chart here.

[00:09:07]And yeah, the S&P 500 chart on the daily and even on the 4-hour, it's looking very bad. The RSI is in a downtrend. We also got rejected by the moving average right there. And if we quickly go to the 4-hour, as you can see here, we are also in a downtrend on the RSI, but the price was in an uptrend. So, I think this is going to give us a very big drop, and this drop might happen maybe in the next couple of days or even weeks. And I think that drop might put us to the bull market support band or even below it, and that's going to also make the Bitcoin price go down. So, I think this is going to get a 20% drop maybe by the end of October and that's going to bring the entire market down, but that's exactly what we need. We kind of need the market to die if we just want to find a good position. Personally, I don't really care how low the prices go.

[00:09:51]I mean, the lower they go, the lower my average is going to be. So, I would love for Bitcoin to drop like $25,000, but I am aware of the fact that that's probably not going to happen unless we get some kind of major drop.

[00:10:04]But, yeah, I'm not going to complain about it. I got out of the market, so I don't really have anything to lose. I only have stuff to, you know, win if I actually decide to find a good position at the bottom. And like I mentioned many times, we're going to have enough time to find a good position or at least I'm going to have enough time. I don't know if we're going to buy or not, but personally, I'm going to be DCA'ing into Bitcoin until it gets to new all-time highs again. So, I'm going to be buying right there, maybe at $35,000 and every single month after that I'm going to continue to buy. And once it gets to new all-time highs, that's when I'm going to be swapping my profits with altcoins and that's when altcoins usually go up again. So, I'm going to be pretty much multiplying my profits again once we get to all-time highs, but you should probably know my strategy by this point.

[00:10:48]Of course, this is not really my strategy. I mean, many people do this, but only the people who actually understand markets do this. People who just have no idea what's going on, they just probably buy on the way up and they hope for Bitcoin to go higher, but I think that's a very very bad strategy.

[00:11:03]Of course, I'm going to be buying on the way up as well, but my average is going to be much lower just because I'm going to buying at better market lows. So, yeah, that I hope my average is going to be maybe like $50,000 or $60,000 by the time we get to new all-time highs and that's going to be extremely good for me. But, yeah, that's pretty much what I have. I hope you enjoyed. If you did, make sure to check out our YouTube memberships and our Patreon. If you want access to all of our charts and if you want access to our daily Discord updates, like, subscribe and I'll see you on the next one.