The Local Elections Autopsy

本站添加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Hi folks, welcome to another one of our political chats. I'm joined by Dan and I thought what we would do is a bit of an autopsy on the recent local elections results because there are in fact I think lessons in them that people aren't taking because the numbers are quite staggering like the the swings in the seats and whatnot have been quite staggering. But I think there's information in there that I think is worth teasing out. Okay. um to properly understand because actually I don't think this was quite the storming victory that it should have been uh nor was it quite the staggering defeat that it should have been.

[00:00:35]>> Right. So we'll begin with uh how the public felt about it. Now this was um basically the most important thing that was talked about all last week which is actually quite unusual for local elections. Local elections have usually about a 30% turnout and nobody cares for some reason.

[00:00:52]>> On on a normal year, the local elections get mentioned on the news as a bit and then it's over in a day and nobody normal talks about them ever.

[00:01:01]>> Yes. But this was all last week's discussion and also it was the discussion leading up to them as well because it was like well when May the 7th hits and if we get whacked Karma is out. So they were very present in people's minds and the turnout was much higher than usual. The turnout was somewhere north of 40%. Overall >> that's not far off general election territory.

[00:01:24]>> Exactly. The last general election was 59%. Right.

[00:01:26]>> So it's really not terribly far off which is very unusual. I >> mean sometimes local elections you get like 20%. Sometimes even lower than that.

[00:01:33]>> Oh yeah. There are candidates who win on 15%. you know, like the unbelievably low turnout, an unbelievably scattered fragmented landscape. So, some of these counselors will have been elected with literally a thousand votes >> in a constituency of I don't know 50,000 or however much it was. Uh so, they've been treated as being very important by the political class. Uh, so they've been in the media, they've been on the minds of all the politicians, >> um, because they're being treated as indicative of a change in the wind. And I think there's something to this.

[00:02:08]There's, you know, there's definitely, it's fair for for them to see this as a kind of bellweather.

[00:02:14]>> Everybody's trying to figure out how how politics shakes out because as as we said many times, you're not supposed to have six parties in a two and a half party system.

[00:02:21]>> Six competitive parties.

[00:02:23]>> Yes. and and so we need to know what what is going to be the shape of politics going forward quite aside from the issue of is is this going to get star out which would have motivated a lot of people just by itself.

[00:02:34]>> Yeah. And so this this has been um as you can see quite widely understood.

[00:02:40]What did they hear what did most people hear about last week? The local elections. This has been dominating the news cycle which in normal times it really wouldn't because it would have been insanely boring but at least there was something quite exciting going on here. So these are the final local election results in England. Uh now as you can see it is basically everything was going in the direction that it was predicted to have gone for. So reform have got 1,454 councils uh up,452 cuz only had two going into this. Labor have got,068 council councilors uh down,498 counselors. The Lib Dems uh are on 844 having gone up 155. The Conservatives are on 801 having gone down 563.

[00:03:27]The Greens are on 587 having gone up 441. And the independents are on 213 having gone up 35.

[00:03:36]Can I do a bit of analysis on this?

[00:03:38]>> Of course. So reform absolutely solid.

[00:03:42]Yep. But they were expected to get about 1,600 to maybe 1,800 at the upper end.

[00:03:48]>> Yeah. Well, let's let's look at the predictions. Remember, uh that we covered last week, uh this was the aggregate predictions that Stats for Lefties has done uh from eight different polling uh experts. So, as you can see, >> yes, >> if the average results is, well, reform is supposed to be north of 1,600, Green's north of 600, >> uh, and Labour losing 1,800 and Conservatives losing 760.

[00:04:15]>> Yes.

[00:04:16]>> Well, actually, that this is not a great result.

[00:04:19]>> It it it's not. And I tell you why it's even more worrying because I'm sure you've got a bit of restore stuff in here that we might come to. You could understand it if Restore won their seats, but uh but Reform, where there was no Restore candidate, pulled back at where they were before Restore launch, which is to say something like 31 32% in the polls.

[00:04:45]>> Yeah, >> I suspect when we dig into this, I mean, I haven't done the math myself, but I suspect you have, it's it's not going to come out at 31 32%. Which is really where they should have been. So it's it's more than just restore have knocked the shine off. It it it's that people have fundamentally reassessed their view of reform. So the taking the Tories, the attacks on Rert Low, the saying, you know, we got to basically transition into being a Muslim nation and we got to get them to vote for us when the time comes. It it genuinely has had an impact. Now I know the Boomer voter, people get upset with that. the median boomer boomer voter who doesn't watch anything online and doesn't it doesn't go online is going to be unaware of this but it that's not that's not outright majority territory >> well let me let me pause you on that because you you're completely correct but you're right I have got the exact numbers okay >> um so what I think the thing to take from this is uh what we can see is that from these numbers compared to these numbers and remember this was just the average I mean there were there estimates where reform would get 1,800 seats and that Labor would lose all of their seats basically almost all of them.

[00:05:58]>> Well, and they kept a thousand. So, I mean, actually, if you go back to the one before >> Y >> in terms of absolute results, I mean, I know I know a lot of Labour Heartlands are including this, but they still got a thousand seats, right?

[00:06:09]>> Yeah. They're still they are actually are still in contention.

[00:06:13]>> There are bigger wipeouts on record. I mean, like Margaret Thatcher lost over a thousand council seats in her elections.

[00:06:18]John Major lost 2,000 and didn't resign.

[00:06:21]>> Like there there are much bigger wipeouts than this in British political history within living memory. Yes.

[00:06:27]>> So for everyone saying, "Oh, this is going to be bad." I mean, that is bad, >> but it could have been worse. And reform did well, but they could have done a lot better.

[00:06:35]>> Well, and and that's what the Conservatives are trading on. So, you know, the Conservatives, look, they had a shocking >> shocking result. They're down almost 600 seats.

[00:06:44]>> They were expected to do a lot worse.

[00:06:46]>> Yes. They really >> What were they expected to?

[00:06:48]>> So the Conservatives were expected down 760 >> nearly 800 >> and it was only they failed to lose 200 seats which is a lot and they had some gains in other areas actually.

[00:06:59]>> Um Labour failed to lose 300 seats which everyone expect them to lose and reform failed to gain 200 seats but also the Greens yes but for all of this green wave failed to gain 100 seats.

[00:07:15]So they So what we what we can read from this I think is that actually reform and the Greens both underperformed >> and Labor and the Conservatives both failed to collapse in the way that everyone expected them to.

[00:07:27]>> Yep. Lib Dems did slightly better than average. I suspect >> the Lib Dems did exactly as predicted.

[00:07:32]>> Okay.

[00:07:33]>> 152 expected, 155 got.

[00:07:35]>> Okay. But they but they held in a in a six party environment. They held up.

[00:07:39]Yes. Which is which is actually something just by itself.

[00:07:42]>> Yeah. Greens, like you say, um I mean these were supposed to be the emergent second party.

[00:07:49]>> Yeah. Oh, sorry. Sorry. The Greens only got 441. So they're 200 seats down as well. They were meant to gain 600.

[00:07:55]>> So they're 200 seats down as well, not 100 seats down. That's just 100 in total.

[00:07:59]>> So So even though we're framing this or that the whole discussion is framing this as a sort of Labor wipeout and a and a sort of conservative wipeout, I mean, yeah, but not not entirely. It's >> put simply if I was Zach Palansk and Nigel Farage I wouldn't be thrilled with these results right if if reform had got 1,700 seats I'd be over the moon I'd be like yep there we go we outperformed we exceeded expectations if the Greens had got the 600 they were expecting I'd have been Zach yeah we outperformed we >> but the thing is the polling has been in for quite a long time >> right >> it's baked in >> it's completely baked in at this point and so actually this is more indicative of a general decline of both the green and reform when they're meant to have the wind in their sales and they're meant to be carrying all before them.

[00:08:50]>> Yeah. I mean there we we can't deny they they've both had a good election.

[00:08:55]>> Yeah.

[00:08:55]>> They've both got momentum but it is not the momentum that they were expected to have.

[00:09:01]>> No. And as you pointed out um reform only won here 28% of the seats.

[00:09:08]>> Okay.

[00:09:08]>> Now that's >> but hang on that's in line with their polling. very in line with their polling actually.

[00:09:13]>> But but and but I mean just to restate my point so I'm absolutely clear on this. Their polling um dipped after restore came out because a lot of people said well actually no I have silk rather than cotton.

[00:09:25]>> Y >> but why did those people not lend their vote to reform in anywhere apart from great Yarmmouth where they didn't have a choice?

[00:09:35]>> A great question. I mean and that was only 10 seats. Well, nine seats for the actual counselors and then one for the county council.

[00:09:41]>> The vast the vast majority of people did not have a restore candidate to go to.

[00:09:44]>> No.

[00:09:45]>> So you you start to ask the question, I'm sure we come on to this is is what is actually restore what is restore actually doing? Are they taking votes from reform which is what everybody wants to say or are they activating voters? Well, we'll come we'll come to this. So, as as you can see, this um like like I said, it was 28% uh of the actual uh seats available that Reform won, which is not bad or anything like that. Obviously, they're the biggest winners of the night.

[00:10:12]>> Yeah, but >> but again, if I was Nigel Farage, I' like, well, I thought we were going to do more than that.

[00:10:17]>> Yeah, >> I would be thinking, I thought we were going to do more than that. And that's because it's down from the 2025 local election results. Um you may remember, oh, if I can stop zooming out and just scroll down. There we go. Uh you may remember that they absolutely wiped the floor with everyone here getting 41% of all of the counselors >> which would have been at the top end of their polling for the time.

[00:10:40]>> Exactly. When they were at 31% in the polls.

[00:10:43]>> I mean that that would have been the outlier polls were put in there. So >> Exactly. Exactly. There were outlier polls that put them near 40 and so >> they actually did it.

[00:10:52]>> Exactly. So as you can see this is uh something of a degradation in their vote share and their position >> just a bit. I mean from 41 to 28 I mean that >> I I like I would be like I said if I was in Niger if I was in reform I'd be like okay well we did win >> but this signals problems ahead and rough seas ahead right this is not the the great win we thought it was going to be. Uh Sky did their projection here um from okay, what do these results mean?

[00:11:22]Um so they've rounded up to 27% for reform. So that's the national equivalent vote, which is not great. Uh 27% overall, but uh slightly above their polling average, but >> and those numbers are good. Are they the Conservatives got 20%.

[00:11:37]>> Yep. The Conservatives got 20%, which is uh them over overperforming. I mean, no wonder no wonder Kemmy Bay's really jubilant at the moment because for the conservatives, I mean, >> this was actually quite good for the Conservatives.

[00:11:50]>> Yeah. I mean, they gave they gave us complete betrayal for 14 years.

[00:11:55]>> I know.

[00:11:56]>> And mass immigration and they're now led by a Euroban and I think it's Euruban, but Yeah.

[00:12:03]>> Okay. Euros names, I get a bit I get mixed up, but they but they still did that.

[00:12:10]>> Yeah. that that boomer vote is sticky.

[00:12:13]>> It really is. And it's not just the boomer vote either. Um I think there's a significant ethnic minority vote that's gone to the conservatives actually. Uh >> so this this is this is Skye's projection from these results which is actually pretty in line with the polling that we've been covering. It's a hung parliament. Reform 284 seats, Labor 110, Conservatives 96, Lib Dems 80, and the Green Party on 13. Right. I can just imagine Jacob Reese Moog dancing around his living room to this because Conservative reform pact it's the only way forward.

[00:12:49]It guarantees it basically. Um this this is not uh a good result for reform in my opinion. And also reform underperformed in London if there we go that's a lot of conservative seats. Farington at the start of the year said that reformers going to win Beexley, Brmley and Hillington. But the Tories held Beexley, Brmley, and Hillington, Kensington, and Chelsea. And they won Westminster.

[00:13:15]So, no wonder Kemmy Bay was absolutely jubilant. This is what I mean about there's a lot more ethnic minority vote going to the Conservatives because they're sick of Labor. But the Greens are mental.

[00:13:25]>> Yes.

[00:13:25]>> And the the Tories do have an African woman leading them.

[00:13:28]>> I mean, to be fair, not not all of the immigrants are, you know, just out for the Gibbs. No, not all.

[00:13:33]>> They're not all welcome. Some of them actually in In fact, if you want to hear hardline talk on immigration, >> ask an immigrant who's been established here for some time.

[00:13:42]>> Ask a London taxi driver who's >> a London taxi driver. Somebody who's had an Indian restaurant for the last 30 years.

[00:13:48]>> The these guys would would make us blush compared to what they would say about recent immigrants.

[00:13:53]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:13:54]>> And I guess they're not going to go to reform because >> they're the anti-immigrant party ostensibly.

[00:14:00]>> Yeah. and and and and and the media pushes the line that they're going to do remigration. They're not, but it pushes the line. So, I suppose it naturally makes some conservatives. Yeah.

[00:14:08]>> Yeah. So, the the Tories have done better in London than expected. I mean, that's not very much reform in London.

[00:14:14]Actually, they should have had all of those blue areas should have been reform.

[00:14:19]>> You should been waxing them there.

[00:14:20]>> I mean, I suppose if if you're living in London, you are more likely than not to be a uh an any an anywhere than a somewhere.

[00:14:28]>> Correct. But I also it kind of implies that Lalia Cunningham's Indian parade was not the vote winner that she thought it was going to be.

[00:14:35]>> No. Um then you then you have Essex. Now reform did well in Essex. That is true.

[00:14:41]Uh these are these are the um predictions uh based against the actual results. But you can see 58 predicted 53 actual declared 13 on the conservatives.

[00:14:51]You can see again the Conservatives have overperformed here. They were supposed to have four, >> right?

[00:14:57]>> They've kept 13. So the Conservatives have overperformed. It's not brilliant >> like it's again like and reform has gained control of the council >> but it's it's not the worst thing that could have happened.

[00:15:11]>> So I mean at the last election we were talking about zero seating the conservatives.

[00:15:16]>> Yes. And one of the talking points that we had was we're comparing it to the election of what was it 1912 something like that where we're saying that the conservatives basically got wiped out and the liberals came in >> and then actually the liberals managed to make themselves even more hated than the Tories. And what actually happened was the Tories survived >> and the Liberals got wiped out and replaced by the Green Party. And we speculated >> Labor Party.

[00:15:43]>> Yeah. By the Labor Party. Yeah. And so we speculated, as hated as the Tories are, is it possible we're going to get another 1912? And actually, it's Labor that wiped themselves out and get replaced with the Greens, which we'll get to soon because I I agree. I really think the Conservative cockroach is going to crawl out of the irradiated ruins and live to live to betray us another day.

[00:16:08]>> Tories. Once you've got an infestation of Tories, bloody hard to get rid of them. In fact, we've not found a way to do it yet.

[00:16:14]>> They are the 40k orcs. I've got to get the reference in there.

[00:16:17]>> It It's mad, isn't it? Um anyway, so like I said, this not not not great for the conservatives, but not at all the total wipe out >> and good for reform, but not the staggering victory that Nigel Fr was expecting. And so his view view that we've absolutely walked it. I mean, we'll watch.

[00:16:35]>> Well, he has to say that, but >> well, yeah, I guess.

[00:16:37]>> Boys, Essics, >> big time.

[00:16:42]This is a celebration and what a remarkable couple of days this has been.

[00:16:48]We're seeing >> so you can see the jubilance there, right?

[00:16:51]>> Yeah.

[00:16:51]>> But I if I were him, I would be less jubilant about this cuz like he's fond of telling us, oh, we've led the the country in 200 polls and okay, but why haven't the conservatives been buried? I mean, back when he was polling average of about 31%. you started to hear reform insiders talk about karma's mingva strategy which is we're cruising to victory >> for's mingva strategy >> well no it was originally when he was under sunnac >> and and and that's where the phrase came from and and reform started picking up on this on this terminology and say look what we got to do is we are out in front but we got to walk across an ice rink carrying a Ming vase >> um and we got to make sure that we do it without dropping it. What it actually looks like it's more like he's carrying a Mingvas through waiting through TLE >> because it's getting harder and harder and he's slowing down.

[00:17:42]>> Yes. And there's there's three long years to go.

[00:17:47]>> Yes.

[00:17:48]>> Assuming Assuming that >> what are we two years in and he's already slowing down already.

[00:17:53]>> Exactly. Uh now he he does make some fair points. Uh betrayed voters have left Labor for good. This is probably true in the North, right? Uh the South obviously not really a Labor voting heartland. Um but the the betrayed lab uh voters in the in the north probably have left Labor forever and I like I've said before I think that's Far's one genuine contribution no matter what happens yes is to break the two party strangle hold here right so Labor and it's in the name always used to be the party of the working class >> and then it did this thing where we're going to be the party of the working class and the benefits class which is of course a thing that didn't exist back in 1912 >> we've created the benefits class Um, Labour seem well or Labor are now fighting with the Greens for the benefit class. But yeah, it does look like the working class.

[00:18:39]>> Well, it's not just the benefit. It's it's the working class, the chav underclass, the immigrant uh underclass and the managerial elite that Labor have tried to cobble to.

[00:18:50]>> Yes, they are keeping the managerial elite, but the left but the workingclass proper, they've gone to Farage.

[00:18:56]>> Correct.

[00:18:56]>> Yes.

[00:18:57]>> But how how long are they going to go to Farage for? Now, Farage himself thinks that these people are now diehard reform voters and they're going to be with him forever. Well, that's >> more than Boris Johnson was ever able to do. And I really believe that these voters for reform are there for keeps.

[00:19:15]>> This is a really >> No, you you can't you can't think like that in polit. That is exactly what Mog thought.

[00:19:22]>> Well, Blair thought it with the middle class voters. Um Boris thought it with the with the red wall. He said, "Okay, the these people are, you know, these people are Tory now." It it didn't last 18 months with him.

[00:19:33]>> Yeah.

[00:19:34]>> Let alone 5 years.

[00:19:35]>> Literally, it's the thing that Boris thought.

[00:19:36]>> Yes.

[00:19:37]>> We've won the North. It's like, no.

[00:19:39]>> Yeah. No, they they have they have picked you for now.

[00:19:43]>> They they are using you as a cudel against the Labour Party. Yes.

[00:19:46]>> That's what they're doing. And this is what the focus groups say. So, this is Luke Trill from More in Common. uh and he said um the focus troops basically uh such is people's frustration with the government they're willing to give it a go right and I saw him on Sky News I couldn't find the clip uh saying this and essentially the the northern voters are tentatively voting for far they are not died in the wool converts to the farist reform party what they are doing is saying we just need something that's not Labor right we can't we've tried the Tories >> Boris betrayed us which obviously the Tories betrayed you. Uh but we still have this Labor problem where it's not even that they're just stabbing us in the back. They just, you know, I mean there's so many knives in the back of the northern voter at this point. I don't know where they're going to go next. Um but they're trying for so disaffected working-class northerners and middle-class breier southerners who are tentatively voting for Farage. It's it's not a landslide like he was predicting. Um >> well I mean by by by very very definition I mean I mean let's go back a bit right go back to the 1950s >> you were kind of baked into it. So if you were a young Tory you you probably met your wife by going to a cons a young conservatives event. Yeah >> your friends were in it. Um you know your your network your work network your golf course it >> you'd go to the local conservative club.

[00:21:12]>> Yes. You were baked into it. And on the left the same thing. You went to your working man's club. you went to your there was a whole I mean it wasn't just your politics it was your life was built into these things and so they were genuinely difficult to extract yourself from switching from one to the other it was it wasn't just oh I've changed my mind it's I'm going to upheave my life and my social sphere and thing and that and that's why it kind of mattered but these days I mean who who relies on the conservatives labor or reform anything outside of what they happen to believe at the time >> interesting that isn't it Yeah, >> and that's a great point because far is still thinking of the previous paradigm where these changes would be unthinkable.

[00:21:53]>> Yes.

[00:21:53]>> But clearly that paradigm no longer obtain.

[00:21:55]>> There's no cost. There's no cost attached to switching these days.

[00:21:58]>> Exactly. And so and and but moreover um the sort of leap into the unknown means well okay I might be with the conservatives, I might be with reform, but who knows I might just keep going.

[00:22:09]You don't you don't know. And so this overconfidence on the part of Farage in the face of what was not a landslide is remarkable. I mean like he says at the end of his uh Times article here he says at the end quote the establishment thought reform UK had peaked last week.

[00:22:26]The British public said otherwise. Not true.

[00:22:28]>> No that's not what happened.

[00:22:30]>> It's literally that you have peaked according to what the British public have said. You got 41% of the local elections in 2025. Now you got 28% in the local elections in 2026. That's a peak. You're on the decline.

[00:22:43]>> Yeah. And it's it's still good enough to be the largest party in the home parliament. But >> Exactly. You you you'll be the >> You're not storming to a win anymore.

[00:22:50]>> Exactly. And moreover, when people are actually speaking to these focus groups, they're saying, "Look, we're just going to give it a shot because anything's better than Labor. We tried Tories. They betrayed us. Now we're going to try reform. Hopefully they don't betray us."

[00:23:03]The the sort of, you know, wideeyed northern voters say. And so Farage is completely misreading the room saying, "Oh, they're there. We've got them for keeps." You don't know that only until you fail them basically. Um, so like I said, wasn't a landslide. They are on the decline. But where was there a landslide?

[00:23:22]Well, Great Yarmouth is where there was a landslide. Right now, this is remarkable. So, in 2024 when Robert was elected, he got, as you can see from here, uh there was a turnout of 56%. Uh 55.6%.

[00:23:41]>> Uh he got 35% of the votes on which was 14,000 votes. Now, that's a significant I mean that's basically um what Farage is looking at now. Well, it's less than what Farage is looking at now, actually.

[00:23:53]Um but that was this is this is Rbert's election, is it?

[00:23:56]>> This is Rbert's election in 2024. Well, and and also I mean I mean some yes, some people have heard of him as as the Southampton chairman.

[00:24:04]>> Sure. But but minimal >> he wasn't he wasn't a big name he wasn't a name in politics at all really.

[00:24:10]>> He wasn't a name in Norfolk politics.

[00:24:11]>> In fact, we we did we did the election thing and we had our eyes on a few MPs.

[00:24:16]>> He wasn't one of them. I saw a few MP candidates. He wasn't one of them.

[00:24:20]>> No, we he he came out >> Tyson Farage.

[00:24:22]>> Yes.

[00:24:23]>> Yeah. And and there was a couple of others I remember being in that green screen thing keeping an eye on.

[00:24:28]>> None of them won. It was him and a complete unknown that I forget his name now, but that random chap who >> who got in.

[00:24:35]>> Oh, what? James McMurd.

[00:24:37]>> Yes, that's the one.

[00:24:37]>> Yeah, he was.

[00:24:39]>> So, he kind of come out of nowhere. So, that result here is is a result of the form name at the time.

[00:24:47]>> Y >> plus that he obviously actually knows how to run a local campaign.

[00:24:50]>> Yes. And so 35% of the votes, 14,000 votes, 55% turnout. That's fine. That was enough to make him an MP. Then of course Farage kicked him out of the party and tried to get him put in jail.

[00:25:03]But he did better in the local elections by quite a long shot, by quite a wide margin. Um so he in total great Yama first. There are like um loads of these, but I mean these these are staggering numbers, right? So the average in fact I've got a graph here. So the average in the in all of these nine wards where great Yarmouth first stood, they got an average of 46% of the votes. They got in total 15,600 votes. So more than a,000 extra votes with a 46% uh sorry 45% or 46% average turnout. So lower turnout, more votes, higher share of the vote. But the fascinating thing about this, right, look look at the look at the second and third and so on places. The Greens still did decently. They took a dip.

[00:25:56]>> Y >> the Conservatives still did decently.

[00:25:58]Reform still did decently, right? So yeah. Okay. They're not So it's it's 20% as opposed to 28% across the country as a whole. But but what this is telling me is they don't >> didn't get 8% of the vote.

[00:26:11]>> Yes.

[00:26:11]>> Like he didn't split the vote. Yes.

[00:26:13]>> You don't know where these people came from.

[00:26:15]>> Well, clearly they weren't exist. They weren't existing voters. You can't make the numbers add up any other way. He's activating non- voters to come in. And you can tell because reform are holding up. Yeah. Okay. They drop from from 28% to 20%.

[00:26:30]>> Yeah.

[00:26:30]>> So, some of those are reform voters.

[00:26:32]>> Yeah.

[00:26:33]>> But a hell of a lot of them are just people who like >> if we just assume there's a onetoone turnout here, right? Yeah. So remember in 2024 he got 14,000 votes.

[00:26:43]>> So uh basically about uh 7 a half thousand of those votes have gone over.

[00:26:49]Okay. But where did the other 8,000 come from?

[00:26:52]>> Yeah.

[00:26:52]>> Right. We know that people who were not voting and like voter turnups up. It should have been in 2021 with the last great Yarmouth local elections. It was uh 29% turnout.

[00:27:04]>> Sound sounds normal for a local election.

[00:27:06]>> Completely normal. Completely normal for disinfected public 45%. 46%.

[00:27:11]>> You just don't get that in a local election. It's mad. It's kind of unheard of. And so, okay, well, there's another 8,000 votes that have turned up for Restore Britain on top of the half of the reform vote that went over to him.

[00:27:21]Well, you've got to explain where they came from. And it's one of those things where it's like, right, okay, something really mad has happened here because I mean, the total number of ballots cast in those nine wards was just under 34,000 anyway. So, that's mad for a local election.

[00:27:37]>> It's mad. But in the general election it was uh 72,000 in total cast.

[00:27:43]>> So more um more was to gain here but he got more of the share of the vote uh more actual just absolute number here.

[00:27:53]>> So this this is where the real energy.

[00:27:55]>> So the interesting thing is right thi this as politics is not even unprecedented.

[00:28:00]>> If you go back to the Brexit referendum Dominic Cummings >> and he's incredibly smart. He's a bit of a genius.

[00:28:09]How did he win it? Right, he won it by activating people who had never voted before or hadn't voted for decades. And the political class, they simply couldn't see this coming because they were looking at their focus groups of likely voters. They were looking at polling of likely voters and they were looking at um Twitter and they were looking at the social media they go to.

[00:28:32]Dominick Cummings wasn't doing any of that. He was on Facebook where the where the non- voters are, where the normies are. He was activating voters who hadn't voted before. Yeah. And he he he won and and and and it so shocked the political system because they simply couldn't imagine that the thing could have happened. And then having made that genius political move, the most the most I don't know the the most earthshattering discovery of British politics in the post-war period which you could activate non- voters. What did the political class do with that information?

[00:29:05]>> They immediately forgot it.

[00:29:07]>> They immediately for and they went straight back to looking at likely voters.

[00:29:11]>> Yes.

[00:29:12]>> And the first time somebody's done anything with it, >> Robert Low an unbelievable victory as well, right?

[00:29:19]>> Yes. So I mean what one one thing like like you say when basically half of the electorate is checked out and a guy turns up with a party saying look this is going to be called great yarmath first >> subsidiary of restore Britain and we are going to represent you yes >> in your politics well even if you'd halfed the great Yarmouth first vote they'd still have won >> well and and all the other ones right including reform when you when you get into what they really believe it is a long version of look I know there's a fix everything button, but here's why we can't press it.

[00:29:52]>> Yeah, we're never going to press it.

[00:29:53]>> We're never going to press it. It's it's it's to do to do my Farage. It's impossible. It's literally impossible.

[00:29:59]Shaking of the head. It can't be done.

[00:30:02]No, we we we we've got to we we've got to adapt or by 2050, you know, if we still haven't pushed the button, well, we won't be able to push the button. And >> can't war on Islam cuz we'll lose.

[00:30:13]>> Yes. And Robert's just come along and said, I tell you what, I'm going to push the button. Yes. And then all these non voters are like, oh yeah, I vote for that. That sounds brilliant. Yes.

[00:30:19]Anyway, look, and this this goes for every single ward in which he won, right? Some of them were won on an absolute majority of 51%. Right.

[00:30:27]>> You don't even see that in a general election. it genuinely you you have to have the most kind of homogeneous um uh immigrant dominated ward or you would have to have like a student ward for it to be like majority labor or Greens or something like that like to to manage to get the and great Yarmouth is obviously a very right-wing place you know it's a very left behind coastal town 90 plus% white English so to get them actually to rally to this degree so an average of 46% like I said some of them are like 51 1% 50% absolute majorities is just remarkable and it just goes to show it's not that they're not interested in politics, it's they just don't feel anyone's on their side.

[00:31:10]>> Exactly. Anyone represents them. Um so just amazing. Uh they even got some positive coverage on ITV. This is very like I say positive but we'll watch a little bit but you can you can tell that this is like fair. Robert Lo's party has achieved a remarkable set of results in England's local elections. Great Yarmouth First, a local arm of his restore Britain party has won all 10 seats it contested in the area. L who's the MP for Great Yarmouth only started the party last year after being kicked out of Reform UK. So to gain so many councilors so quickly is an achievement.

[00:31:47]Restore Britain is polling at 4% nationally, but law says he intends to stand candidates across the country by the next general election, which is expected in 2029. Will you be voting for them?

[00:31:59]>> Yes.

[00:32:00]>> Didn't call him a racist.

[00:32:01]>> No, that's didn't call him far right.

[00:32:03]>> I mean, the interesting thing is is is Lo has done everything he's done whilst having a media blackout. So, if they actually start covering him, >> what can he do then? Probably quite a lot.

[00:32:13]>> Well, exactly. How I mean, it's just remarkable. So, let's let's go back to the Tories for a bit then. So, uh Richard Ty flatly rejected a coalition with the Tories, which is a strange thing to do.

[00:32:26]>> Yeah, but he's doing he's doing it in installments by just inviting them all in. So, >> well, yeah, there is that.

[00:32:31]>> What What's the line here?

[00:32:33]>> Yes. Uh we're not going to deal do a deal with soggy lib dems pretending to be Tories.

[00:32:37]>> No, we're just we're just we're just going to give them turquoise rosettes instead. It's like >> But also, okay, well, let's let's assume you're not going to do a deal. Well, that that means we don't get a government.

[00:32:47]>> Yes.

[00:32:47]>> Right. You're not getting government with numbers like these. As you must know this, and in fact, Farage knows this. Uh he doesn't rule it out.

[00:32:55]>> He said, quote, I find it a highly undesirable idea. And no doubt you find it a highly undesirable idea because you should be miles in >> in front of this point. You should be looking at forming a government. So let's pitch from here to the government at the moment. Uh how are things going for the starinator? Now this uh this was a yuggov poll taken just after uh the local elections the 10th through 11th of May. And you can see reform have actually had a three-point bump in yuggov and yuggov normally have them about 25%. So that's okay that's pretty good. Restore is still on 3% so they're down minus one but it's not terrible.

[00:33:34]Um, but the Conservatives on 17%, Greens on 16% and Labor down minus two to 16%.

[00:33:41]>> Uh, your party still not and the the your the your party and restore Britain still not being prompted for some reason. Um, even though Restore just had this amazing victory. Uh, and so things are not going great in Labor.

[00:33:53]>> No, >> everyone can tell things aren't going great. And at the time of recording, >> yes, >> things are tense in the Star Bunker.

[00:34:01]I I was I was just looking down just now to check to see if Starmmer had been >> had resigned. Yeah.

[00:34:07]>> But I mean that I mean when you say things are not going well in Labor, >> I I literally have to keep checking my screen to see if the prime minister's resigned. That that's some indication of how badly it's going.

[00:34:16]>> Yeah. I mean it's going really badly. I mean it just looks like they're all like look we think our time's up. Shabbatmood two of the senior cabinet ministers look just to set our timeline to resign.

[00:34:27]You've you've got >> Ed Band and um who's the home secretary?

[00:34:30]Vet Cooper.

[00:34:31]>> Yep. And and no, she moves to the home secretary. Uh Vet Cooper's um a different one.

[00:34:36]>> Oh, no. She's foreign secretary now.

[00:34:38]>> Foreign secretary. That's right. Um anyway, so at the time of recording, there were 86 um in fact, I've got that written down as 81. So this has been updated. Uh 86 uh Labour MPs who have demanded that Sama quit.

[00:34:54]But these people don't have a champion yet.

[00:34:59]So to actually force Starha out, they would need to trigger a leadership election and they would all have to back the same candidate.

[00:35:06]>> Well, it was it was that um I'm getting her name wrong. Um >> Rose West.

[00:35:13]>> Katherine West.

[00:35:13]>> Katherine West.

[00:35:14]>> Yeah. She she decided to be reticent about this and not put herself.

[00:35:18]>> Well, that that's because she's Labour and she's not particularly bright. And when it was explained to her that because she's she's a Burnham supporter.

[00:35:26]when it was explained to her that if you force an election now, Burnham isn't actually an MP.

[00:35:31]>> Yes.

[00:35:32]>> And therefore, you're going to hand it to um either Wes Streeting or Angela Raina. She was like, "Oh, bugger." And then had to quickly retract it.

[00:35:39]>> Yes.

[00:35:40]>> But the point is, >> okay, you can find somebody.

[00:35:44]>> You would think so, wouldn't you? So, we've got 86 uh Labor MPs who are like not having it. We've got cabinet members resigning. Jess Phillips, for example, the women and girls safeguarding minister. I wouldn't even sack her.

[00:35:56]>> What What's interesting, I love that she's got her own photo on there. Like Jess Phillips, the known moderate um a modest uh person.

[00:36:04]>> If I ever get headed note paper, I'm going to put my own picture on it.

[00:36:07]>> It's wild, isn't it? Anyway, she's she's resigned. And then you've got uh Alex Davies Jones, who is the parliamentary under secretary for state uh of state for victims and tackling violence against women and girls. So, this is basically like the feminist caucus that's abandoning Starmmer. And then we started getting leaked messages from the Star Bunker and some of these are just amazing. Uh well, this one I think is the most important one from Natasha Ryans. Uh bottom line, changing leader because Nigel Farage has forced us to is not something any of us can come back from. Anyone who thinks we can needs to wake up and that's true. Natasha is >> is it is it is it Nigel Farage or is it the fact that your votes collapsing? I mean, >> well, the problem is Farage framed his campaign as vote for us and the locals, get Starmar out.

[00:36:51]>> Well, >> and everyone was like, well, we're not voting for the government, Nigel. But obviously Farage knows this. He just knew that it would become politically untenable for Star to stay and that there'd be a lot of pressure going, "Look, our party is getting creamed here. St you've got to go. Everyone hates you. You are the most unpopular prime minister that we've ever had." Lab is getting historically low vote shares.

[00:37:14]It looks like we're literally jumping off the precipice here. So saying get star is actually not terrible messaging.

[00:37:21]>> No. Can you can you just go back one to your your resignation tracker? Um uh there we go. 86. Okay. So it's up to 88. So from from two more while we've been sat here, >> right? Yeah.

[00:37:34]>> Two more.

[00:37:35]>> Yep.

[00:37:36]>> I mean what is going to be by the end of the week? But they're in this double bind where if they do go, "Yeah, you know what? We're gonna have to get rid of Sama."

[00:37:43]>> Well, guess what? Farage comes out and does.

[00:37:46]>> I told you I'm the winner here. Now, we need to call a general election because nobody wants the country here. You're already doing what I say.

[00:37:54]>> What's your excuse not to? And Natasha, who's one of Star's 2024 new uh MPs, is right on the money. She's like, "Well, you know, we haven't got long histories in our own constituencies. We haven't got like solid bases. Yes.

[00:38:08]>> Like we're not going to win.

[00:38:09]>> Yeah.

[00:38:10]>> Like it's going to be a bloodbath where literally like 400 Labour MPs never see the inside of parliament again.

[00:38:16]>> We can't do this. And she's not wrong.

[00:38:20]>> Yeah. But it's not they've got any good choices.

[00:38:22]>> And well, that's another reason why they can't do this. We'll come back.

[00:38:26]>> No, no, I I I didn't mean just as in who to replace him. I mean, that is that is his own problem. But doing nothing is disastrous and doing something is disastrous as she points out. I mean there was there was no option that is not head on a spike at this point >> but doing nothing is disastrous tomorrow like you know further down the line doing something today is disastrous now >> and so if we do nothing and we maybe maybe in a year's time things have turned around who knows right it might still be disastrous now >> but it's better than uh sort of collapsing the singularity and having the disaster happen right this second >> you're you're saying that actually the least worst thing to do is just to ride star morale and collect your MP's salary.

[00:39:07]>> Yes.

[00:39:07]>> Accumulate your MP's pension years >> for three more years because I mean that's that's the giving up position.

[00:39:14]>> Yeah. Cuz I mean like Natasha Rans for example, she was um some some sort of social media producer for Channel 4. So she'd have been on like 50 grand a year at the most, >> right? And now she's on >> and now she's on nearly 100 grand.

[00:39:26]>> Well, it's probably 120 once you take the um expenses and Yeah. Exactly.

[00:39:30]Right. So, I mean, I if I were her, I'd be like, "Yeah, I'd rather just sit here and be hated by the country for three years and then bounce and do something else afterwards, right? At least you get the money." And this is why 100 Labor MPs have signed a letter saying now's not the time for a leadership election.

[00:39:48]So, actually, if you look at, oh, there's 86 who saying no. Okay, but that's not democratically majority here.

[00:39:56]This is the fascinated fascinating dilemma that they've got. The established MPs, they're thinking, I can probably cling on to my >> Clive Lewis, um, John McDonald. Yeah.

[00:40:08]Dian, >> all the names that you recognize, they're all thinking, I can probably hang on to my seat. How does the Labour party itself survive as an electoral force going forward? Yes. Whereas the recent intake are like I know that I'm going so I'm I'm willing to let the I'm willing to stay on this burning cruise ship for the next three years and just hope that it doesn't sink.

[00:40:31]>> Exactly. That's exactly it. And so we we have actually more people who are actually dependent on StarMA for their positions than those people who want to see the Labour party >> because there was a big intake at the last election, >> a huge intake of newbies. And so there Stara is actually not in as weak a position as people think. And I we I said this before. Starma has this wrapped up and everyone yesterday was saying he's going to be gone by the end of the day. I was like I don't think so.

[00:41:01]I think he's going to stick it out.

[00:41:03]>> I don't know. I if if if I was going to have a 10 pound flutter on this, it would be that he goes by the end of the week. But you're firmly in the camp that he stays to the end of the week. Are you?

[00:41:12]>> I am. Yeah. And so Starmer, right?

[00:41:14]Here's defense. is Defense Minister Luke Pollard being like, "I'm not resigning.

[00:41:18]Whatever else is happening, we will be continuing our efforts to support to to rearm, rebuild the United uh armed forces and protect the UK. We're just going to do our jobs, we're just going to get on with you. You carry on with this, right?" And so Starmmer, he had a bunch of like ministerial aids, his his own cabinet ministers um resigning. And when this happened to like Richie Sonak or whoever else, Boris Johnson, like oh god, you know, we've got to worry about the future of the party. Well, what if you don't care about the future of the party, right?

[00:41:47]Yeah.

[00:41:48]>> You can just replace them.

[00:41:50]>> You can just assign new people.

[00:41:52]>> Boris had this though. He he he had was it maybe four maybe five days? I'm I'm I'm not I'm not remembering now. Where he was just regularly replacing people day in day out.

[00:42:01]>> Yes. And it was it was clown show and everyone, you know, the the uh media were like, "My god, this is a a a party that's bleeding out, a prime minister that's bleeding out."

[00:42:10]>> We were only on day one of him doing this.

[00:42:12]>> Yes. And he's decided, "You know what?

[00:42:13]can find these dependents who need me because these people haven't got established constituencies, aren't brandame MPs.

[00:42:21]>> Yes.

[00:42:21]>> And I can just shove them in. No, it's your turn now. He >> he won't get anything done from this point because >> the real power of an MP of of a prime minister is patronage.

[00:42:30]>> Yes.

[00:42:30]>> Right. And and it's people think that he can get stuff done as much as anything.

[00:42:34]You still politics is still ultimately about moving people around and getting people to do things. If people believe he no longer has the power of Patridge, apart from replacing existing ministers, but outside of that network, >> he he I mean I mean he might get his breakfast clubs away, but that'll be it.

[00:42:52]>> He he he's burnt all of his political capital just securing his position. Yes.

[00:42:56]Right.

[00:42:57]>> And so that's that's great from the position of the right. Right. So >> Starmer, the big fear is he's going to destroy the country. Well, if he can't do anything, he actually can't destroy the country. So, we can actually bank a few of the positive things that he's done. He got net immigration down by 70%. He didn't drag us into a war with Iran. Right. These are actually moderately impressive things.

[00:43:18]>> Do you want to take that tenner bet when we meet here next week?

[00:43:23]A tener to me if he goes tenner to you.

[00:43:25]Right.

[00:43:26]>> Sure. We'll take a bet.

[00:43:27]>> Bet made.

[00:43:28]>> I'm not a betting man, but uh we'll take it. Um and so you're right. he can't really do anything and he will just be in this constant state of fending off challengers as the polls continue to collapse. So what we are watching is a man who is just too selfish to know when his time is up and has decided to use the power of his office and the power of the fact that he's got 300 dependent MPs on him.

[00:43:50]>> Yes.

[00:43:50]>> To just No, I don't have to.

[00:43:52]>> I mean, I kind of admire it in one sense.

[00:43:54]>> Well, I quite like it because this is great for the right.

[00:43:57]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:43:58]>> This is the >> Oh, it's my preferred outcome.

[00:44:00]>> Oh, it's brilliant. It's I I I would have I would have asked him to do this.

[00:44:04]I have been on Twitter like, "Kid, you've got to stick this out. We could be looking at the actual end of the Labor Party as a a political party forever if you just hold the line." And not just that, like the left generally, no, everyone's watching this kind of disrespectful politics going on and the kind of backbiting and you know, everything they said about the Conservatives. This is way worse, >> but it it didn't it didn't work for the choice. They they changed from Boris Johnson who had become unpopular over co to Richishy Cernach who had quite high personal numbers of people liking him didn't make a damn difference at all because people realized oh actually no it's it's not the leader it's just that this party is rotten. Yes.

[00:44:43]>> So I don't mind him being swapped for somebody even Angela Rainers who's got some personality because people realize oh wait all of these problems are still here. It's not the leader it's that Labour just needs to be destroyed. So either way we get there.

[00:44:56]>> And so the longer he holds out the better. And he's just going to be going to a meeting with apprentices tomorrow to underline the government's drive to overhaul the apprentichip system.

[00:45:04]>> I bet he talks about bloody breakfast clubs again.

[00:45:07]>> Absolutely right. The point being he's just going to power through it and carry on as if nothing's happening which is amazing. He's just come out and he had a cabinet meeting today obviously. Now you can imagine how tense this star bunker meeting was, right? But he he said he told the cabinet as I said yesterday I take responsibility for the election results. I'm sorry. I'll put the Kama voice on. And I take responsibility for delivering the change we promised. The past 48 hours have been destabilizing for the government and that is a real economic cost for our country and families. The Labour, I mean, you've seen the bond markets today, right?

[00:45:39]>> Yeah.

[00:45:39]>> Atrocious. Like led by donkeys just have are never allowed to talk about Liv Liz trust ever again, right? Yes. It'll just always be thrown in the face. No, no, this is way worse, you know, under Star.

[00:45:50]>> Well, and and and Liz Trust was was a was a blit which kind of engineered by the Bank of England. This is this is a grinding.

[00:45:56]>> They did this to themselves.

[00:45:58]>> Yeah. And and the reason why it matters when it's grinding is because not only is there the new debt issuance because they can't make their sums add up, but we're having to roll over old debt all the time. And we're already at the point now where the I I I don't know if we have a minister for debt, but if we do, he would have the biggest department in the government.

[00:46:14]>> I wouldn't want to be that guy.

[00:46:16]>> Yeah.

[00:46:16]>> But as you can see, the Labor Party has a process for challenging a leader, and that has not been triggered. Oh, that's an interesting statement.

[00:46:25]>> It's that is so star the rules technically say whatever.

[00:46:31]>> It's also so the soft left.

[00:46:34]>> We're going to sign a letter K asking you there are 86 of we want you to leave. We'll trigger the process then.

[00:46:40]>> Well, we're not going to do that. Like you cowards. You absolute cowards. like you're like you're watching your party on the road to destruction and you're like well we're going to have to ask him really nicely. It's like no you could take executive action here. There is a mechanism and you didn't. So >> you got the numbers.

[00:46:57]>> Yeah, you've got the numbers. And so Star's just like no I don't care. Right.

[00:47:01]So Star's like no I'm not resigning. No, no leadership challenge has been triggered. So minister's looking glum entering number 10. They're just like what are we going to do? No, you're you're >> you are not lions, right? You do not have the balls to step forward. Uh, and so Starmer is basically just taking them on a death march at this point. Like he's just marching a baton death march for his own party and he doesn't care.

[00:47:24]>> It's like that meme of the of the tram coming across the track with all the bodies on the track.

[00:47:29]>> You can stop at any time. But just >> you're a Labour minister. You're on the track. You can stand up at any time.

[00:47:37]>> Why?

[00:47:37]>> All it takes is one of you to stand up and actually trigger the challenge.

[00:47:40]>> Yes. And yet nothing's happening.

[00:47:44]>> God, they're such wimps.

[00:47:45]>> It's so bizarre that the soft left is so I mean genuinely soft.

[00:47:48]>> I mean, if this was a Tories, I mean, we'd already be through three prime ministers by now.

[00:47:53]>> Exactly. Would have would have would have happened over and over and over. We probably been a general election. Um, but yeah, so Stalin was basically taking his part in a death march because they're too cowardly to do anything about this. Uh, and so what happened with say uh we're streeting? Uh, nothing actually. We're streeting went into the cabinet meeting apparently um completely cucked uh where is it that like there was a lot of people apparently um like side eyeing each other but Starmmer didn't bring any of it up at all right there was no challenge from West Streeting said Sam coach from Sky a number of cabinet ministers catching each other's eyes as he was speaking but Starmmer said that he won't discuss the elections or his leadership and he'll only speak to cabinet ministers about that individually and we're going to carry on with the agenda.

[00:48:38]Come on.

[00:48:39]>> And so West Streeting bottled it. Absolutely bottled it. Like absolutely cucked.

[00:48:46]>> Unbelievable.

[00:48:47]>> I mean, we we we can't we can't be too harsh because remember, if any of these men had higher testosterone levels, they wouldn't be on the left to begin with.

[00:48:56]>> Yeah. I mean, so by virtue of the fact that they're wimps also means they're on the left, which means you just >> But it also means because remember Star purged the sort of um the the the secure left out of his uh party as much as he could and marginalized them. Right? So John McDonald may well win in his own seat. You know, Clive Lewis may well win in his own seat. Dian Abbott may well win in her own seat, but they're nowhere near the government. He's got this the you know the the 300 brand new faces and people like West Streeting who won the majority of 500 votes and are going to lose the next election. So if we're streeting sat there was like no right that's it sta cards on the table I'm triggering it let's go for it could be like I'm just going to ask the king to call an election then you're out forever.

[00:49:42]>> I mean it's it like Star's probably going to lose his seat too but he'd have a better chance than we're streeting.

[00:49:48]So, it's just >> it's just just brutal. Absolutely brutal. Right. The the people in the Labour party have got no balls and uh as said, Jess Phillips resigned. Um no one's no one's he's he's just Chad ignoring them.

[00:50:05]>> He literally set them all around the cabinet office and just stared them all down and was like, "No, this is what's going to happen. Can we discuss the leadership?" "No, we can't."

[00:50:13]>> In in a party full of wimps. Yeah. Karma male.

[00:50:17]>> Yeah. Exactly. We're going to talk about the Iran war and the straight of four moves. And they're like, really? Is that like what's going on with that? Probably not that much at the moment, right? So, absolutely nothing. So, let's talk about Andy Burnham, right? Andy Burnham, who has already kept out of the limelight by preventing him from running into sabotaged once.

[00:50:36]>> Yeah, he's already sabotaged him once.

[00:50:38]He's apparently arrived in London like Lenin traveling to Moscow on the train.

[00:50:42]Right.

[00:50:43]>> Grand Ayatollahani has arrived in Iran.

[00:50:46]Yeah, exactly. Like there's there's so many he was seen arriving at London Houston station while Karma fights for his life. But the thing is Karma is in a much stronger position than Andy Burnham because Andy Burnham isn't an MP and Andy Bernham isn't an MP because Karma prevented it. Like sorry I've already checkmated this this check piece you're moving to get me. You can't do that.

[00:51:09]He's gone to meet with various allies uh like Angela Rainer and various others um because he says quote uh an insider source close to him says quote he has he's got a seat secured in Greater Manchester. So someone in Greater Manchester is prepared to stand down for the good of the party for the good of Andy Burnham for Andy Burnham to win it.

[00:51:30]Now Andy Burnham is relatively popular by far the most popular Labour MP. Um but but by relatively popular, what we mean is we can't automatically assume that either reform or Greens are going to win that seat, that Labour might have a chance. Yeah. But >> they probably don't.

[00:51:49]>> Well, so he's he's got uh 34% approval rating from all people. That's because 36% just don't know who he is. Yeah. But >> so it it's not bad and it's not, you know, it's it's it's as good as Labor ever going to get, right? No one in Labor is more popular than Andy Burnham, but that's not saying much because most people just don't know who he is.

[00:52:10]>> Okay. So So it it has to be a Manchester seat because he's from Manchester and he's got the name recognition in Manchester. He's most credible in Manchester, right? And >> but it can't be a Manchester seat with too many students, otherwise they vote green. It can't be a Manchester seat with too many immigrants because they vote green. It can't be with too many old Manurians because they wrote reform.

[00:52:33]>> You're narrowing it down quite a lot because what's interesting is in the local elections, guess who won in Gorton and Denton.

[00:52:43]>> Oh, that's an interesting I don't know.

[00:52:45]>> Yeah. uh in the area in the area that led to the quoting from this in the area that led to the resignation of MP Andrew Gwyn that led to the bi-election which saw the Green Party win their fifth seat.

[00:52:57]Reform UK won 18 of the 19 seats up for election.

[00:53:02]>> Oh, now that tells us a lot, doesn't it?

[00:53:06]Well, yeah. I mean, purely mechanicalistically, um you you can get the Muslim vote out for a bi-election, but they really can't be bothered with local elections. It tells you that the white um the white proportion of um >> white and British.

[00:53:22]>> Yeah. But but they were pretty pissed off and and they were asserting themselves. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. They didn't come out for Matt Goodwin. Yeah.

[00:53:30]>> Wonder why. Um >> Yeah. That's that's not strong for Labour.

[00:53:35]>> It's terrible. If you had told me that Labour had won 18 out of the 19, I'd be like, "Oh, yeah. Yeah. Andy Burnham just needs to do blah blah blah blah." and then he'd be >> and in any other time or place >> it would have been guaranteed that it would have been Labour but no reform won 18 of the 19 seats according to um ITV and so it shows that not only did Matt Goodwin misaryry his campaign an MP but everyone isn't he so >> but it also means there are no real safe seats in Manchester for Labor >> I mean um here's the Greater Manchester vote share as of May 2026 in the local elections well reform got 23 134,000.

[00:54:15]Labour got 177,000.

[00:54:19]So, and the Greens got 147,000.

[00:54:22]So, sorry if you're Andy Burnham. Are you sure you've got a safe seat in Manchester? Are you really that sure that you don't have a bunch of uh you know, Chad Patriots who are sick and tired of the Labour Party and a bunch of foreigners who are going over to the Green Party? And and you're still soft left, which is the biggest faction within the Labour Parliamentary Party.

[00:54:44]>> Yes.

[00:54:45]>> But it's still only like 35% of the Labour Party is soft left.

[00:54:50]>> So are the other 65% just going to sit there twiddling their thumbs while you try and get back into parliament to head up the biggest faction cuz you know the blue labor going to be doing their thing. The hard left are going to be doing their thing. The Blair rights under West Streeting are going to be doing their thing.

[00:55:07]It's a lot of ducks. You've got to line up for this shot to >> do it, isn't it?

[00:55:12]>> Exactly. If if I was like, "Yeah, I've got to get I I I've got to get back into parliament."

[00:55:16]>> Yeah.

[00:55:16]>> I mean, I'm not saying he should go somewhere other than Manchester, obviously.

[00:55:19]>> No. No.

[00:55:20]>> Um because why why would that succeed in any way, shape, or form, but >> it just doesn't look like Manchester's a sure thing?

[00:55:27]>> No.

[00:55:28]>> At all. I mean, Labor just with the bleeding their vote to the reform of the Greens >> hugely heavily just stuck in both sides pouring out blood. Yes.

[00:55:38]>> Well, yeah, you would have to get really quite lucky, I think, actually, to find a really secure uh place. And okay, so let's assume that you do trigger a bi-election. Well, what if Zack Palansky runs in it?

[00:55:51]>> Yeah.

[00:55:51]>> What if Zack Palansky is like, "Oh, right. No, we've got quite a lot of Muslims and students there. I'm going to go for it." What if Zia Ysef went for it? I don't know who or whoever like some bright who would reform send. I can only think of Zia Ysef off the top of my head.

[00:56:07]>> But let's assume they don't send Matt Goodwin and someone who's who's actually >> Let's assume they actually want to try and win this one.

[00:56:12]>> Yeah. Let's assume they actually want to try and win it, right? Uh >> pretty much any constituency in Manchester is basically potentially winnable for Reform with those sorts of numbers. Oh, yeah. No, it's just like if if reform had a a very active campaign and Palansky had a very active campaign, it's entire entirely likely that one of them wins and Labour comes third like they did in Gorton and Denton >> and he's just given up being mayor of Manchester >> for nothing >> for two more years to try and save the Labour party >> and fails, right?

[00:56:42]>> And and and his faction isn't even a majority. So yeah, >> so K Starmmer with his phenomenal unpopularity has checkmated Andy Bernham again.

[00:56:52]>> Like he's just Chad Karma. Like it's just crazy how he's mogging everyone, right? Everyone's looking at themselves and like where street tried to see Karma after the cabinet and Star just refused.

[00:57:03]>> Like I'll talk to everyone individually.

[00:57:04]Where's Street like can I speak to you?

[00:57:06]No.

[00:57:07]>> He's just mogging them completely and there's nothing they can do about it.

[00:57:11]And the thing is it's probably for the best, right? This is what it would look like if where's streeting was PM in 2029.

[00:57:18]Where's Labor?

[00:57:21]>> Oh, Raj would actually get his majority when uh Yugo poll people saying if West Streeting was prime minister, how would you vote in the 2029 general election?

[00:57:36]And people are just like, no, that's a thumbs down from me, bro. I mean, I don't I don't hate this because both the Conservatives and Labor get properly crucifixed. I mean, >> yeah, I I could tolerate a Farage prime ministership if it meant destroying Labor and the Tories like this. I could tolerate it. Now, I don't think that's going to happen. I mean, you can see Great Yarmouth is still the dark blue blob that uh you know, absolute hold out.

[00:57:57]>> Well, because we're streeting he's Blairite and that has I mean that Blarism was >> Blairism with a weak chin. That's what he is. like he's the soft >> without the political skill and mination.

[00:58:09]>> Exactly.

[00:58:10]>> But Blairism went out of favor 20 years ago.

[00:58:12]>> Exactly. No one wants it. Everyone can tell this is the problem. I would rather something else. And so you've got like um the government favorability down to 14%.

[00:58:22]Like it just can't get any worse. Well, I mean I guess theoretically it can get worse.

[00:58:26]>> Yeah. 14 points worse, I guess.

[00:58:27]>> And so unsurprisingly, West Street just bottled it, right? He just bottled it.

[00:58:32]Um I'm as Kevin Scoffield, a mirror uh editor says, "I'm told Andy Bernham does not plan say anything publicly about his Labor leadership plans unless everything kicks off. Uh he ain't doing the kicking off, says one supporter. One MP says, "Can't believe Wes is bottling it. If he doesn't go this time, he's done as a political force." Coward, right?

[00:58:49]Absolute weak chinned, cucked completely. Chad, Giga Chad Kstarma goes out and just like, "I'm not talking to you. I'm going to do a like. You haven't leveled challenge. Therefore, I think he's going to like an owl sanctuary or something this afternoon just to just to look at some owls or something. It's just like what is happening?

[00:59:08]>> There was that Labour policy that they accidentally tweeted out a couple of years ago which is everybody gets a free owl. So maybe >> yeah, that was the tweet. Everybody gets a free owl and and so may maybe that's what Karma was working on.

[00:59:21]>> Maybe. But anyway, like we've covered previously, Star genuinely thinks he can win the next election. Uh he is not stepping down. So, at the time of recording, this is the state of play.

[00:59:31]Now, of course, he might tomorrow, but to be honest with you.

[00:59:35]>> I don't think he's going to.

[00:59:36]>> Yeah, >> I think he's got it sewn up with these newbie MPs. I think the people challenging him are pissak. He's already checkmate Andy Burnham. None of them are putting their name forward for everyone to get behind them on.

[00:59:48]>> Yes, >> there's no way of getting rid of him.

[00:59:50]Oh, I don't know. I mean, I've just refreshed for the news feed. No, he has not resigned, but now we're up to 90 MPs according him to resign. I mean, this is kind >> but more than 100 are like, don't resign cuz we need you for our jobs.

[01:00:08]>> It's just okay.

[01:00:10]>> Well, I don't know.

[01:00:11]>> But this is great. Karma's taking the Labour Party down with so amazing. He's got a job to do. The British public elected me and and I will be here till 2029. Then I'll fight the next election. Brilliant.

[01:00:23]>> Oh, no. He's been telling people he wants another 10 years.

[01:00:26]>> I know. I know. And honestly, I just couldn't couldn't have asked for more. I couldn't have asked more. What? There is no greater hero to the right at the moment than Kier Starmmer, the Starinator.

[01:00:36]>> So, can it can he really ride the ship when it is literally disintegrating under him?

[01:00:42]>> But it's because the the ones the the the 300 odd new ones absolutely need him.

[01:00:48]>> They need him.

[01:00:50]>> They can't get away from him. He has this stitched up like I've been saying and so they just they haven't got the balls to be like right we're going to have the challenge because the thing is they might even lose the challenge >> like if there's an internal vote and the membership votes for Star.

[01:01:04]>> Yeah.

[01:01:05]>> Like cuz Star can make the argument look there there basically isn't going to be another >> and he would run as well. Oh, he already said he would, but he'll fight it. And he's already said, "Look, we, you know, Labor governments don't come around often, which is code for we're never getting in again, >> right? So, we've got to do what we think needs to be done now. We got three years to inflict as much damage as we possibly can."

[01:01:25]>> Exactly. So, we might be and and like we've said previously, like who would you want to replace him with? My god, everyone in Labor is useless and unpopular. And like the best you've got is Andy Burman. Stan's already squished him like a bug. So, I don't think he's going. And I mean, hey, this might end. This might age really, really badly cuz remember this is we're being by the day you get this, we recorded it the day before. Uh, and in that time, he might have come to his senses.

[01:01:56]>> My my tener might be safe, but I'm not feeling good about this. I >> I'm just saying I don't think he's going to. So, anyway, this this is what I think is what the local results have shown us. Actually, the Li parties on hiding nothing. Reform are on the decline. And there was one true standout success story and that was restore Britain.