Historic El Niño + Violent Hail Warnings Across the U.S

追加: 2026-05-10

[00:00:03]baseball-sized hail, 75 mileph winds, and a squall line tearing through Texas as of this morning. Nearly 500,000 people in Oklahoma City are under a flash flood warning as we speak. And meteorologists just flagged the strongest El Nino forecast on record heading our way. Three separate threats are stacking up today, and not everybody sees all three coming.

[00:00:29]Let me walk you through every single one of them because this is not a normal Sunday. No sugar coating. The Storm Prediction Center issued a level three enhanced risk today. That covers a massive stretch from Abalene and Fort Worth all the way down through Waco and Austin. And y'all, this is Mother's Day.

[00:00:49]Families are outside and that is exactly when storms don't care. The primary activity window is 2:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. Central Daylight Time. So, you still have time to prepare. First things first, enhance zone residents, get your car under a roof right now. Hail up to baseball size is not an exaggeration.

[00:01:11]That is the official SPC forecast for today. The hail threat is greatest along and south of the I20 corridor across central Texas. We're talking a 30% or higher probability of significant hail within 25 miles of your location. that hatched region on the SPC map, Midland, Abalene, San Angelo, down to Austin.

[00:01:33]Heads up. Now, here's what a lot of people don't realize. The wind threat today might be even worse. Straight line winds up to 75 mph are possible as a squall line forms this evening that is strong enough to snap trees, knock out power lines, and flip unsecured structures. Folks in mobile homes near Waco, Colleen, and Temple, please find a sturdy structure before dark. The wind probability map shows a 30% plus zone with intensity hatching over central Texas. That hatching means winds could exceed 65 mph in isolated pockets. No joke, plain and simple. That squall line is going to move fast and y'all need to be ready well before sunset. Let me break down the timing city by city so you know exactly when to take cover. So, let's talk timing because knowing when this hits makes all the difference for your family. Between 2 and 6:00 p.m., supercell thunderstorms will fire along the I20 corridor from Big Spring to DFW.

[00:02:39]These early storms are your hail producers. Large to very large hail exceeding 2 in likely. Then from 6 pm to about 1:00 a.m. the squall line sweeps southeast across north and central Texas. That is when damaging winds take over as the dominant hazard. 60 to 75 mph widespread.

[00:03:00]Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco, you're in the window roughly between 700 p.m. and 10 p.m. tonight. Austin and San Antonio, your window shifts later, closer to midnight into the early morning. Houston and Southeast Texas, you'll see the back end of this pushing through past midnight as well. Now, what's fueling all of this? Good lord. The CAP values today are off the charts for May. The HRR model is showing surface-based cape values topping out near 4,776 jewels per kilogram. That is the kind of storm fuel that meteorologists lose sleep over. It feeds monster supercells.

[00:03:44]A Gulf moisture surge is pushing due points into the oppressive low to mid70s. That Gulf moisture combined with a cool front diving in from the west is the recipe for today. Mark my words, a Wyoming disturbance is joining forces with that front right now. Before that system hit Texas, it already tracked through Kansas and Oklahoma with large hail. Witchah, Enid, Oklahoma City.

[00:04:10]Those radar returns this morning were bright red and nasty. And that brings me to something I need to stop right here and make sure you fully understand.

[00:04:19]What's happening today is not just a one-day event. It is the opening chapter of something bigger. Meteorologists are now forecasting one of the strongest El Nino events on record is coming. The Climate Prediction Center is calling for El Nino conditions from October 2026 into January 2027.

[00:04:39]If this forecast verifies, we could be looking at record-breaking impacts across the entire country. The key change is what happens to the jetreams.

[00:04:47]This is where it gets real. The subtropical jetream, the one further south, is going to become significantly more active.

[00:04:57]Meanwhile, the polar jetream pulls north and weakens. And that changes everything for storm season. Warmer sea surface temperatures are rapidly building in the Pacific. Storms absolutely love that fuel. Northern states dry out while the south gets more active. That is the El Nino flip. Here's the kicker. The most dramatic impacts ramp up by the third week of May. Flash flood watches are likely across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri within two weeks.

[00:05:31]Precipitable water values are forecast to reach 300% above average. That is gully washer territory. 4 to 8 ines of rainfall is not out of the question across the southern plains and mids south. The moisture surge is expected to lift northeast into Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Kentucky. Let me give you a regional breakdown right now so you know exactly where to focus your attention. In North Texas, Witchto Falls, Sherman, Paris, level two slight risk with large hail possible. The Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex is sitting squarely in the enhanced zone. This is a critical situation today south and west of DFW. Abalene, Midland, San Angelo, you were in that critical hatched zone.

[00:06:21]Lach is just outside the worst of it, but still under a marginal risk for severe storms. Waco and Temple are right in the enhanced zone. Tonight's wind threat is real and dangerous there.

[00:06:33]Austin and San Antonio, your severe window comes late, after 1000 p.m. Prep early, don't wait. Houston and Galveastston, the squall line reaches you in the overnight hours. Have a plan in place. Over in Oklahoma, the flash flood warning covers Oklahoma City and nearly 500,000 residents today. Edund, Nichols Hills, Warres. Do not drive through flooded roads. Turn around.

[00:07:00]Don't drown. Tulsa and eastern Oklahoma are seeing active radar returns this morning. More is on the way. Arkansas, Tex Arcana, Fort Smith, Little Rock, you're in the slight risk and floods are possible. Louisiana, and Mississippi have already seen a lot of rain this week and more is stacking on top.

[00:07:22]Shripport and Baton Rouge. That stalled front is parked right over you and flooding is a concern. Now, I got to ask, what part of the country are you most worried about today? If your city is anywhere in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Louisiana, I want to hear from you. Tell me which cities near you or under the gun. I want to hear from y'all. Now, let's talk about the heat out west. That is the other major story this week. Death Valley hit 109 degrees recently and forecasts are showing it could top 117 next week. California, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, record high temperatures are on the table for your work week. Upper 90s into Idaho and Wyoming. That is not normal for miday. I kid you not. The Texas panhandle was talking snow just days ago. Now they're staring down 100° temperatures. That heat ridge will lock in from Monday through Friday across the western tier of the country. The northeast stays cool and rainy. That northwest flow is locked in all week long. But not going to lie, the big picture pattern is shifting in a way that demands your attention. Now, once we reach the third week of May, the subtropical jet cranks up and storm season gets supercharged. El Nino is already warming those sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Storms love warmer water. The Pacific hurricane season starts May 15th and above average sea temps will fuel early activity. That early Pacific activity is expected to trigger the monsoon a little ahead of schedule this year. West Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, you'll start feeling that early monsoon flow by late May. Four corners region. Bless you are going from baking heat to monsunal moisture by early June. Back to the south, precipitable water vapor index approaching 2 in per hour is on the horizon. That level of moisture content leads directly to flash flooding, and May is already the wetest month. You better believe it. When El Nino really kicks in, the southern plains are the bullseye. Drop your city below. I'll personally monitor your 5-day risk outlook. Dale says his soil is already saturated from April. Another 4 in worries him deeply.

[00:09:46]And Carol Meyers, a retired nurse in Omaha, Nebraska, is watching this system move northeast carefully. Carol said her basement flooded twice last spring.

[00:09:56]She's not waiting around this time. Good for her. Folks like Dale and Carol are exactly why I do this. Real people, real weather. Now, let's talk about what this El Nino pattern means for your city in the weeks ahead. Specifically, Texas and Oklahoma. You will likely see the heaviest rain impacts from this pattern this season.

[00:10:19]Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas expect above average precipitation through much of late May. Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas, that moisture surge is expected to reach you as well. Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, the heavy rain pattern shifts north into your region by late May. Every major model agrees. The third week of May is when heavy rain turns on. 4 to 8 in across the southern plains in two weeks. Every model flags that flash flood watches across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri within two weeks. Lock it in. I need you to bookmark this forecast and check back because this pattern is going to evolve fast. Sandra Phelps down in Lexington, South Carolina, told me she's already seeing high water near her road. Sandra, you're in the marginal risk today, but keep watching because moisture is heading your way. Frank Hollister, a rancher out in Amarillo, Texas, has his stock animals moved to higher ground already. Frank knows what 4,776 jewels of cape looks like on the horizon, and he doesn't mess around.

[00:11:29]That local knowledge keeps people safe, and we all need to think that way today.

[00:11:35]All right, here's the bottom line on today's severe weather before we wrap things up. Main threats today, baseballsized hail and damaging winds reaching up to 75 mph.

[00:11:46]Add flash flooding to that list, especially across eastern Texas and the Oklahoma City metro area. Tornado risk is low, but not zero. A brief EF1 near the I20 corridor is possible. The best defense against today's worst threats is simple. Know your options before storms arrive. Mobile home residents in central or north Texas, find a solid building before 2 p.m. If you are driving after 6:00 p.m. across the Dallas Waco corridor, be ready to pull over immediately. If a flash flood warning hits your area, do not drive. 6 in sweeps a car. Here's the forward look.

[00:12:26]High pressure locks over the western US through this Friday. That means a brief lull for the middle of the country between Tuesday and Friday. But then, you better believe it, the pattern reloads for late May with a vengeance.

[00:12:42]El Nino is already forcing the subtropical jet southward and moisture levels are climbing steadily. Bob Simmons in Indianapolis told me his sump pump has been running nonstop since last Tuesday. Bob, heads up. Indiana and Kentucky are in that moisture corridor for late May. The Climate Prediction Center is already hinting at above average precipitation for a large swath.

[00:13:07]That above average zone covers Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and extends into the Four Corners region. And out in the Pacific, sea surface temperatures are rapidly warming. Storms love those conditions. Margaret Collins in Witchah has been a school teacher for 35 years and says she's never seen this.

[00:13:27]Margaret, Kansas dries out this week, but expect that pattern to flip by May 20th. That early monsoon flow will tap into all the heat building across the desert southwest. Once those two systems join forces, West Texas and New Mexico will see remarkable rainfall by June.

[00:13:46]Think about this. We are talking about one of the strongest El Nino ever recorded. Rapid sea surface temperature anomalies are being detected right now across the equatorial Pacific. The forecast is calling for an extreme temperature increase compared to what we've seen recently. If this forecast verifies the way the Climate Prediction Center says, brace yourself for the fall.

[00:14:11]October 2026 through January 2027.

[00:14:15]That is the core window for the strongest El Nino impacts.

[00:14:20]Burn this into your memory. The second half of 2026 is going to be a different animal. The polar jet retreats north, the subtropical jet dominates, and the storm belt shifts south. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, y'all are going to be in the bullseye for that pattern. And for the Pacific hurricane season starting May 15th, above average activity is already being forecast.

[00:14:48]Those Pacific storms feed the early monsoon which feeds the desert southwest which feeds everything. It is one connected system and today's Mother's Day storm in Texas is the first domino falling right now. Today is the priority. The level three threat in Texas is very much alive. One more time, 2:00 p.m. to 10 p.m. Level three enhanced central and north Texas today. Baseball size hail, 75 mph winds, and a tornado that can't be ruled out. That is today's threat.

[00:15:25]Flash flood warnings are already posted in Oklahoma City, affecting nearly 500,000 people as of this morning. Drop your city in the comments. I will personally track your 5-day risk window.

[00:15:37]Tell me where you are. Tell me what you're seeing outside and let's track this storm together tonight. This pattern is far from over and neither am I until every city is covered.