SHORTEST BITCOIN BEAR MARKET EVER!? or MASSIVE BULL TRAP FOR A NASTY 50K BITCOIN and DOGECOIN CRASH?

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Good morning to the viewers around the world. Welcome to another crypto debriefing.

[00:00:08]And we begin with our liquidation map.

[00:00:13]As we look, we can see that just above where we are now at around 77,000, there's a decent amount of liquidity of around a billion dollars. So, there's a good chance that we do get that. We don't have to, but it's just a price to watch between 77 and 76K.

[00:00:34]Okay. Now, you can also see that there's over it looks like 10 billion at 73,000.

[00:00:42]So, there's a good chance at some point we do go back down to 73,000. And when we do, it should be very quick and violent because of all the money that's sitting here.

[00:00:53]Okay. There's also a ginormous candle at 78K. Maybe we go up there, maybe we don't. I can't definitively tell you we have to go up there, but I'm just showing you that moves to these prices will be very violent. So, if you do see a big red candle to 73,000, don't be shocked because look at all the money that's sitting here. And the same thing at 77,000, which is simply a little bit higher than where we are now at the time of recording at 60 or 76K.

[00:01:24]So, we can see that the weekly stock RSI is overbought. That does imply that you do not want to get in the way of what could be a very bullish move. However, every week that goes by that we don't actually see a violent move, we would start to imply that the move down is next. Now, when I say next, it doesn't definitively mean that we're just going to go straight down like we did in 2022. While it would be nice to get it over with, it could end up being like 2018 where we just sit here. Now, in 2018, I can't really use it as the best analogy because you can see we didn't hit overbought, but you can see that you went back down to the low, but you didn't actually go down for months.

[00:02:16]And the same thing did happen in 2014 where you can see you hit overbought and the price got exhausted but you didn't actually go down for another two months.

[00:02:28]So there's no guarantees that we're just going to come up like this and then the next move is going to go right to the downside. That would be nice, but it doesn't have to happen because of all the macro bullish momentum that we were using for the capitulation did get invalidated. So there's no reason to shout we must go down now. It could take as long as it wants and we do have to give the respect that the market demands because if you don't you will end up getting chewed and spit out by the market. So we cannot fade to bullish momentum but every week that goes by that we don't actually erupt out of here you can potentially start to make the inference that the next move down is is coming. But who knows? Could take weeks, could take months. Maybe it maybe it does start at the FOMC meeting.

[00:03:19]Remember, we have been been monitoring that each move down has started from the FOMC meeting. So, as we get closer to it, we will actually monitor that and say, well, what actually is about to happen? Because in the last however many FOMC meetings, the price action is as follows. It has been bearish. So maybe that is the trigger point that causes the reversal. But I'm not going to come on here telling you maybe this, maybe that. We have to focus on the information that we have in real time.

[00:03:49]And the real-time information does scream that we are bullish. However, every candle that passes that we don't go higher is actually telling you that the market is starting to tire out and is turning bearish. And we're seeing it with the 5day stock RSI. We can see the 5day stock RSI is at 100. It's actually flat for the first time since May. But you can see that in May, we erupted to the upside. So every 5day candle that passes that we don't erupt, it does start to infer that the market is starting to get tired. Okay. Now, if we turn our attention to the monthly time frame, we can see that, believe it or not, we actually had seven red months in a row. Now, I didn't realize this until the live stream yesterday. So, big shout out to everyone who came in and also big thanks to everyone who watched yesterday's video until the end. I'm surprised at how many people actually did that. But we can see that we actually had seven red candles, which is the monthly time frame. Now, this is very unique because every prior bare market actually started with the first red candle. We didn't have that. You can see every bare market, the last candle was green and then we turned red in the bare market. This time around, we had two red candles before the bare market even started. So, us getting two green candles here now that we're seeing it after the fact isn't necessarily the most far-fetched thing because you already had seven red months. Now, the reason why this is an important perspective to take is because if you think that the bottom is in, which I'm not coming on here trying to negate information that you may have given, you may have been given. If you believe that the bottom is in and the bull market is starting, then you have to do what's best for you, right? Maybe that's the case. I don't agree with that and I'm showing you my perspective and what I'm planning for. And that's why I think you should gather as much information as you can and make your decision based on what you see. I'm not trying to downplay what what other people might be saying. I'm just simply showing you what I see. And from that perspective, I can't tell you that we just had a 5mon bare market and now we're going to the moon. I I don't think that's the case because every prior bare market was at least 12 or more months.

[00:06:12]And the fact that we're only 5 months in, well, we were at least at the low here and it's only down 50%.

[00:06:20]I personally don't think that's enough for me to start screaming, "We're going to the moon. I got to get in." Because again, if we do focus on the stock RSI, you can see that even on the monthly time frame, look at where it is. And if I simply go back to that weekly stock RSI and I measure where is it when we hit overbought, you can actually see that the monthly stock RSI does correspond to where we hit overbought or the oversold stock RSI. Again, this one I can't really do because it didn't hit overbought, but you'll see that the monthly stock RSI is in the same spot as far as each bare market. You see how the monthly stock RSI is oversold? That's where we are now. So, it does most likely imply that we're sitting through a very, very large rally inside of a bare market, which means that if that ends up being true, just looking at the following price action over the coming months may suggest this is what's next. But it's important to note that every bare market does look different. So, I can't confidently tell you that it must look like this, it must look like that. But I will argue that it should look like one of them and that's what I think is is going to play out and that's what I'm planning for. But what I can't do, like I said, with the invalidation of our macro momentum such as the MACD and the Gossson channel, I can't tell you the crash is coming next month. I I don't know where it is. But if I had to guess 5 months from now or 6 months from now or seven months from now, we're probably much lower. And I don't feel any type of FOMO because I see this and I say, is the bare market really over after 5 months or are we just seeing green candles? Which in every bare market you do get at least one or two green candles. In 2018, you got two green candles. In 2014, you got one, two, three green candles. In 2022, you got four green candles. We're getting two green candles here, which means at some point we'll probably get another green candle. Now, if it ends up being May, so be it. But it may be May and June are bearish and then July and August are green. There's your four green candles.

[00:08:45]So, I think this helps the perspective because I didn't realize we did have two red candles before the bare market, but I can't tell you that we had five red months and now we're in a bull market.

[00:08:55]Okay. Now, the same thing is true for Dogecoin. Dogecoin stock RSI is also dead in the water. If you just mark the monthly time frame when it hits oversold, you can just see where we are.

[00:09:10]And we did hit oversold while we were in the bull market. So that does potentially paint a picture that maybe we're a little bit further along. But even if you slid it over to here, you can see that you still didn't have any type of bull market for another year.

[00:09:25]So, I I do think the perspective change is needed. And what's really important, and I can't stress this enough, we can't base everything off of what happened last time because in 2022, Dogecoin bottomed early. So, people might be arguing, well, the bottom is in. But if you go back to 2018, Dogecoin didn't bottom for another year after Bitcoin already bottomed. So there is always that chance that Doge doesn't actually bottom until much further out. So I do want to emphasize caution on that. But either way, you can see that the monthly stock RSI does imply that there is no bull run anywhere near where we are right now. And the fact that Bitcoin is at 80,000 almost and Doge is at 9.5 does suggest to me that if we do get that move down for Bitcoin to around 50 or I think sub 50K, the only way Dogecoin doesn't come down to these levels is if you get one of these big green candles. So maybe you're betting on that and maybe it happens.

[00:10:34]But what I'm here to say is if Dogecoin does not get one of these big green candles, then there's no way to avoid these lower prices in my opinion, which would be around 5 to 6 cents. And if Doge was going to get a big green candle, this would be the environment for it to happen. as we look at the oneweek stock RSI and you can see beautifully with the boxes I just drew for you that it corresponds perfectly with the weekly stock RSI climbing and you can see in both prior bare markets the weekly stock RSI climbed and the thing is the weekly stock RSI is climbing right now but we're not seeing any type of follow through on the price so over the coming weeks we do need to see Doge somehow spike to the upside side if it's going to avoid going to four to 5 cents because I I do or maybe not 4 cents, sorry, 5 to 6 cents because I do think 5 to 6 cents are is on the table, especially if we don't get a big green candle because if we don't, as I said yesterday, if you simply shift your lines to where the overbought stock RSI is and you look at the following price action, you can just see that the moves to the downside are very nasty. And the reality is again if Bitcoin is at 77,000 and Doge is at 9, what could we expect the price to Doge of Doge to be if Bitcoin goes to 50,000? You know, it it'll probably be below 7 cents. And the fact that the weekly stock RSI is climbing does imply that a large move up should happen, but if it doesn't, then we're in for a nasty drop heading into the end of the year. Okay. So, we'll continue to monitor the rest of the information as it comes in, but the weekly stock RSI is maximum bullish right now. You don't want to stand in the way of a big rally, but you do have to start preparing for the possibility that when the rally finally tires out. The information suggests that if we don't break out, the move to the downside that's coming is going to be very, very gnarly. And the only question is how long is it going to take? And you know, we could be bullish for for many more weeks. I I can't get in the way of the rally, but I do have to make the argument that because of how low the macro momentum is, especially with the fact that it corresponds with that weekly stock RSI and it matches all prior bare markets, you're probably sitting through a very large rally inside of a bare market. But that doesn't mean that we're going to the moon. It just means that whatever kind of crash that should come, maybe it's not coming for a little bit more time. So, we could sit here for a little while. And that will be another video. If you did watch to the end, I do appreciate it. Stay safe. As always, none of this is financial advice.