Bitcoin: Still Not Bearish And Here Is Why

本站添加: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Bitcoin continues to push higher and we are currently trying to break above this important resistance, the 21week EMA. In this video, we want to continue the conversation that we started in previous updates and we want to refine a little bit further where this rally might end and what Bitcoin might do over the coming sessions. I will also in this video take a look at certain charts, crypto charts, MSTR, Coinbase, BMNR to get a better idea of where we currently are in the process. I also take a look at the circle chart and then we can compare these patterns from the recent lows with the Bitcoin chart because sometimes this can give us additional clues. But the overall scenario hasn't changed. The overall road map hasn't changed. And before we dive into the structures, just want to reinforce my view, my perspective. I have been crystal clear and still some people don't get it. It is important to understand we are in a rally. I'm not bearish yet. I'm still short-term bullish. Have been bullish since February. Yeah, the idea was for higher prices to unfold and this is playing out. But being bullish in a larger bull market and being bullish in a Bwave, these are completely different things.

[00:01:21]Yeah, it it takes a a different level of Yeah, you need to be more cautious.

[00:01:27]Let's say like that or at least I am because I still treat this rally as a corrective move. Now, breaking above the trend line, does that mean I'm wrong? In fact, no, because we haven't even reached our target zone that starts around 82K. And I showed you in some of the last videos that Bitcoin should break above the 21week EMA and might even reach sort of an area here in the middle of our target zone around the 86k area. Yeah, maybe even higher. This is just an it's just, you know, just one level that I've pointed out because in 2022, Bitcoin broke above the 21week EMA and uh that was a 10% move above the 21week EMA and Bitcoin could reach the area around 86 to 87K if it does the same again. Okay, so breaking above the 21week EMA would simply just validate and confirm what we've been talking about over recent weeks. So the idea was this Bwave can still extend higher.

[00:02:32]Please remember that B waves can become more complex. They could even rally to new highs and also our cycle indicator which I showed you yesterday does suggest we can still move higher.

[00:02:45]Remember this is our BTC cycle analyzer.

[00:02:47]Yes, it's a bit experimental, but still right, it's basically looking for rhythm in price structures. Bitcoin appears to be following a 280day cycle at the moment, which means that if it continues to follow that and at some point it will likely stop. Yeah, there are different cycles Bitcoin is following. This is just one of them. But you see here um the tendencies. Yeah.

[00:03:12]So, typically when the blue um now the teal line reaches the top also, Bitcoin forms a top and at least it's been consistent over the last few years. And the next top is kind of in the May June area, maybe even July. Not quite sure if we'll get there, but um I'm I'm still looking for further upside obviously into May and then if this is correct, we could see a significant low form end of the year in November or so. So again, also based on our cycle analyzer, the market still can move a little higher.

[00:03:45]So I remain short-term bullish, but rather cautious as well. Not bearish yet. But the main thesis, and this is just the main framework here that we're working with, suggests that this is just a corrective rally. But look, we're I'm teaching Elliot wave. Yeah, I constantly highlight what these patterns tell us.

[00:04:07]And I know people often don't want to hear it, but because we are dealing with a Bwave, this is a certain type of corrective structure. The Bwave can technically extend a lot, can easily go higher. In fact, with a three-wave decline in the Awave, the Bwave has the potential to be very aggressive. This is just something I want you to be prepared for. Nothing I can confirm at this stage. Um we haven't even reached our target area, right? So let's first see if the market can get there and then we will pay close attention to how the market reacts in this target zone which is in blue. So around 82 to 94K breaking above the target zone, it wouldn't invalidate anything. Yeah, it would rather mean that the Bwave hasn't topped. And so with the Bwave, we need to be prepared for it could technically even go to all-time highs. And again, I'm I'm not making the Elliot wave rules or guidelines here, but this is one of the top possible outcomes here because Bwaves can overshoot. That's specifically something that is allowed for in this particular pattern. So what we need to keep in mind is that while we can use seasonalities or such cycle um analyzer tools to get an idea of you know how long something takes the actual structure is determined well by the market itself and it's just price structure price action that we're reading here with our Elliot wave model it helped us to understand that the bounce from the February low should be quite decent ideally right to be fair I'm quite glad we're moving towards this resistance area because had the market not even broken above our red resistance line, it would have been a really weak Bwave. And so this idea of a rally that I mentioned already in my Q1 update, this continues to play out for now. And I promised you to tell you what I what would need to happen for me to turn bullish. Okay, now don't get me wrong.

[00:06:09]I'm already what you might call bullish shortterm, but as I said, being bullish in a counter trend rally is different from being bullish in a in a main trend rally. We cannot ignore the orange count, which allows for another high, but to confirm it, we need five waves up. Now, people often tell me, well, you know, in half a year when we've reached new all-time highs, your scenario will not hold up. Well, guess what? The white Bwave can overshoot. So, I will not turn bearish. You need to be tactical here, right? From a trading point of view, from an analysis point of view as well, because a B-wave rally means it can extend.

[00:06:49]As long as it's a three-wave move, it can be a Bwave. It can even overshoot.

[00:06:52]It could even move to new alltime highs.

[00:06:54]Again, this is specifically what is allowed for. Um, and so it doesn't make sense to really turn bearish until the market gives us a fivewave decline. And so this is the difference from someone or between someone who's using Elliot wave and who's reading market structure to to someone who's just looking at macro and just uses seasonalities for example because that person might never realize when the structure is changing. Now the structure will change in favor of the orange scenario when one particular pattern shows up and we will be able to recognize it most likely because we're tracking micro structures every single day. And and if you're looking for some evidence or comparative, you know, comparison structures, well, Bitcoin did something like this in November 21 where we had an Awave down and this was an overshooting Bwave.

[00:07:56]Yeah, most Elliot waivers, including myself, consider this an overshooting Bwave. Bitcoin likes to do these things.

[00:08:05]We so far haven't seen that. Uh some people call this an overshooting Bwave in October 25. I don't for various reasons. So it's still possible we get this. Yeah. So again, I'm I'm simply following price and we're still looking for higher prices as I said before. And once we reach our blue target zone, we can, you know, we can pay particular attention to the micro structures. Now, we do that anyway. So let's take a look.

[00:08:32]Um so for now Bitcoin isn't doing anything unusual in both of these scenarios I also showed you yesterday over the last few days we've been looking for higher prices and so there are two pathways and uh we will also take a look at the micro structures on several crypto stock charts in a minute then we can say okay this or that looks a bit more likely but basically the idea is that a somewhat meaningful low formed in February Okay. And the move up is corrective. So we had here an Awave up, a Bwave down, and a corrective looking Cwave. And so this Cwave is basically what we are currently tracking um first of all on the higher time frame. Yeah, quick reminder, Cwave up should take us a bit higher.

[00:09:29]And there are a couple of ways how this C-wave could unfold. So, we're now going to take a look at those and then we'll compare that to some of the crypto stocks charts we're tracking as well.

[00:09:40]But I actually forgot to mention um what I need to see to really turn bullish. A quick reminder, I already mentioned that as long as it's a three-wave move, it can be a Bwave and we are not going to get bearish until we see a break of support uh or a fivewave decline. But to really turn bullish, I need to see this 1 2 3 4 5. It doesn't matter right now because we're looking for higher prices anyway. But if the market forms a higher low in the next pullback and another higher high and we will track for that.

[00:10:09]Yeah, always have to track for that potential because the higher time frame analysis suggests we could form a fifth wave up in orange. Yeah, this scenario isn't gone, but it's the alternative.

[00:10:20]But it will become the primary count once we get five waves up. Yeah. So again, I'm not trying to predict every single wave here. I'm simply structuring the data for you, but simply basically making the data that's there understandable. If the data changes, then I will adjust. Yeah. No ego here.

[00:10:41]Yeah. No, I called it or this or that.

[00:10:44]I'll tell you when something is in line with forecast and I'll tell you when something is changing and then there's going to be a new forecast, right?

[00:10:52]That's just what it is. And so the the orange count and new alltime highs are specifically allowed here. And I just want to make it very clear, we're still looking for higher prices with the potential of this to extend further. I wouldn't primarily expect all-time highs, but if the market gives me a fivewave move, I'm going to listen, guys. The market is the boss here. Yeah.

[00:11:13]Not my opinion or anything else, not the fouryear cycle. No, it's the market itself. Okay. So, let's take a look at microructures.

[00:11:23]So, and we know that a C-wave, if really an internal B-wave bottom here in March, we know that C waves should be five waves. There are few ways how this can be interpreted. Either in the orange count, which I mentioned in yesterday's video, has become more likely. We'll get one more high in a more direct fashion and then we could just reach the 82k area and that's it. Again, it doesn't need to top there, but this would be the first level normally of of the target area. Yeah.

[00:11:52]For um a C-wave, the 100% extension is typically an ideal target, which means in the orange count, one more high ideal. Talked about that yesterday. or in the blue in the white count. Sorry.

[00:12:04]It's actually more bullish, but we could get a deeper pullback first. Wave one and then this as a wave two, wave three, one more high, then wave four, wave five, two more highs. That's the only difference. But in both scenarios, higher prices been very clear about that. And I'm not bearish yet shortterm.

[00:12:24]Um, what would we need to see as a confirmation that we get internally here? A bit more of a pullback. And at the moment looks like the market might want to break out directly. But as a very first indication, we are entering our lower support area here. Um, which is between 67 1/2K and 72.8K. We would need a break below upper micro support which I've added earlier today communicated on Discord already. It takes a break below 74,769 for a decent signal that we are entering a deeper pullback. But again also that wouldn't be bearish guys. Yeah. This would simply be accounting for the possibility that even if we get a deeper pullback the market can still rally higher. Now which wave count is it? So please note that even in the orange count the market should form an ABC move up in wave five and we have not reached target yet which is at around 82k.

[00:13:21]So that means first support 74.7K to 76.6k today. deeper support. You could say main support. Yeah. Or lower micro support.

[00:13:33]Let's call it like that between 67 1/2K and 72.8K.

[00:13:42]And now we can take a look at a few crypto stocks charts to see are they more leaning towards a wave 2 pullback, white count, or in the orange count, maybe even a more direct breakout. So if we look at the Coinbase chart first, um Coinbase, yeah, to make it to make it here very efficient, um has also dipped into a support area. Um small pullback from the Friday high like Bitcoin and it aligns more with the idea of a wave four pullback. That's also what I've been watching for. For those of you who are on Discord, you go you guys know I'm tracking Coinbase there regularly and we could get one more high. So, I think this aligns more with the idea of an ABC structure where the C-wave might just need one more high.

[00:14:25]So, again, this is more like in line with the orange scenario, but as you can see, we're far away from target around 250. So, Bitcoin can likely still go higher even if it goes higher directly.

[00:14:37]Again, Bitcoin is the leading factor here. Just trying to find some confluence.

[00:14:42]Um, then we look at the circle chart.

[00:14:44]Hold on. Let's do MSTR first.

[00:14:48]MSTR similar to Coinbase also shows the like Bitcoin A B C structure. You see how they align and then we have wave 1, wave two, wave three, maybe wave four and five. Look, I can't rule out that all of wave four is already done. Um it was a shallow pullback, but we're still holding all support levels and it does not align currently with the idea of a deeper wave two pullback. So also this aligns more with the orange scenario on the Bitcoin chart. One that also aligns with the orange scenario on the Bitcoin chart is the BMNR chart. Bitmine also here I'm tracking this as a corrective bounce.

[00:15:28]Not as a Bwave but probably just a fourth wave. But even in this 1 2 3 4 5 we could get one more high towards $25 plus. And um so also here yeah one more high is possible. And the one that is a little bit off is the circle chart. Um the circle chart until a couple of days ago it also looked like yeah we might get one more high here. That's it. But circle moves in a slightly different pattern you know. Um it it's a slightly different pattern. MSTR BMR and Coinbase they all move kind of together. Circle is slightly different. Um and so here we could also get another rally. But if we do, it should be from this zone $87 to $96.50.

[00:16:17]However, here we have to consider that a more meaningful top is already in place.

[00:16:21]But either way, the ones that really align with Bitcoin structure are BMR, MSTR, and Coinbase, and they do allow for one more high in a direct fashion.

[00:16:32]Okay, so to sum it all up for you, we're still looking for higher prices. There's a potential for all-time highs. It's not the primary count at the moment. I treat this move up as a corrective rally that can still and should still extend higher. Looking at micro structures, there is still an option for a bit of a pullback. Um, but if we look at the crypto stocks charts, they try to form another high more directly, which might be a hint that Bitcoin might want to do it as well. First micro support 74.7 to 76.6K.

[00:17:01]Main support here or lower micro support still relevant and unchanged. Both counts are possible on the micro still, but to confirm the white count, we need a break below upper support. And both counts are still showing higher prices.

[00:17:17]So hopefully that is helpful. Hope you liked the update. If you did, please hit the like button, leave a comment and subscribe. And if you're interested in additional updates, then make sure you check out our membership where you can get daily additional updates on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other charts. Thanks so much. Bye-bye.