Anthony Scaramucci: "The Brutal 50% Correction On The Road To $250,000!"

[00:00:00]Nothing stops this train. What is that train? That is excessive fiat currency spending, uh cycles of wars, cycles of deficit spending, uh and the monetization of our debt. You know, our politicians are weaklings. [music] They don't want to tax us uh to pay for the stuff that they're spending on. So, they do something more pernitious and they do something more aggressive. They inflate the money, you know, which is the worst form of taxation, Maggie. So, and that's what we've been experiencing. And this is why things like Bitcoin, things like gold, uh, I think will rise over the next decade. I said, yeah, you know, we're right, but we're probably going to see a 40 to 50% correction on the way to 250,000. I don't think we go from 126 to 250. I don't think there's a thesis break. I have been buying Bitcoin here uh, for myself and for [music] our investors, and so I like it long term.

[00:00:54]Anthony Scaramucci says the market is completely misunderstanding Bitcoin right now. While fear, war, and economic uncertainty dominate headlines, Scaramucci believes Bitcoin is simply moving through another normal cycle before the next major bull run. And according to him, rising debt, money printing, and growing institutional adoption could eventually send Bitcoin far higher than most investors expect.

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[00:01:27]>> What keeps you interested in it? Because do you see it just as a temporary situation because we see money moving elsewhere just more of a momentum play or is there is is part of the structural or fundamental story changed?

[00:01:42]>> Well, I mean that's a great question. I mean, so that's about a thesis break. Is there a thesis break in Bitcoin? And so I don't see the thesis break. Uh I maybe maybe you know maybe I'm too doctrinire on this. I see this as a four-year cycle.

[00:01:57]>> If you said to me when Bitcoin was 126, in fact I had conversations with my partners, uh everyone was thumping on their chest, we're at 126, we're right, everyone else is wrong. I said, yeah, you know, we're right, but we're probably going to see a 40 to 50% correction on the way to 250,000. I don't think we go from 126 to 250. And it just has to do with the way Bitcoin's uh software was designed. It has to do with the hash rate. Has to [music] do with the supply coming into the marketplace from the Bitcoin network that gets hald roughly every four years.

[00:02:34]And we're now into the back end of the having cycle, meaning we've gone through the first two years of a four-year cycle. And if you look back over the rolling cycles, you typically get a 25 to 60% decline in Bitcoin. So, a lot of people felt, well, we got institutional demand, we have ETFs, we have all this other stuff that's happening. We're not going to have that this time. Bitcoin is just going to go way off to the races.

[00:03:01]Um, and I would push back on that. I would say well until you get to a dimminimous having cycle which is probably 8 years from today um you're going to see this sort of uh the downward trend [music] which is very cyclical and very understandable based on the fact that the miners because they have less Bitcoin that they're able to mine they end up selling it to keep their revenues and their operating structure together. And so [music] that that causes a a a decline in price.

[00:03:31]Having said all of that, um it's a very thin market. You know, we're talking about a billion3, sorry, excuse me, we're talking about a trillion three. I mean, Micron Technologies is a trillion dollars now. You know, everything is a trillion dollars. So, this is a very small market. And so, just any incremental demand will knock the price way up. And if you look at the drift down to 62,000, it's been on relatively low volume. And I'll tell you what I really like about Bitcoin right now, the bearishness.

[00:04:04][music] I mean, you're talking about fear on the fear greed index is at a five. Uh that's measured at from 0 to 100. 100 being we're maximum bullish. I mean, so we're as close to okay, Bitcoin is over. Let's let's throw the towel in.

[00:04:19]That's like Peter Schiff levels, you know? So to me I like that. The other thing I like about it is uh the apathy you know when a when a security becomes apathetic a token like this becomes apathetic to me it's a very good sign because any slight move will probably be a trend upward. Last point on Bitcoin, uh we started the year with the expectation uh that we were going to have 75 to 100 basis [music] points worth of cuts.

[00:04:52]>> Uh then we started a war and now we're in a neutral position to possibly rate hike. So we've had a 100 basis point differential in rate expectations and so something like Bitcoin would also be affected by that. So So again, I don't think there's a thesis break. I have been buying Bitcoin here uh for myself and for our investors and so I like it long term. [music] >> I think part of what is disappointing to people is that when Trump came into office there was so much enthusiasm that this was the crypto White House. Finally the regulatory overhang was going to clear [music] but it feels like so much of that momentum has faded. Um is that is that the case? Is Washington no longer on sides with crypto or do you think that will that will eventually things will eventually continue to move in that direction?

[00:05:39]>> Yeah, and these are great questions. I don't know the answer. I'd love to tell you that I am a preient and I understand all this stuff and know the answer. I can just give you my surmise. I can say that the younger Democrats and the younger Republicans in the House and the Senate want there to be oversight and propitious regulation for crypto. I would say that the older Democrats primarily want to kill and strangle the cryptocurrency industry. They want to strangle it in the uh in the bathtub.

[00:06:10]And so uh I think the younger people will eventually win out. I don't know when that will happen. If I had to guess, I think Clarity does get passed because the crypto guys still have a lot of money. They pumped $250 million into the [music] 2024 election. Uh they got a lot of pro crypto people elected. It doesn't strike me that the younger Democrats want to hassle with that.

[00:06:32]>> And so, you know, even, you know, somebody like Senator Gillibrand, who I have a reasonable relationship with, has told me that she still believes that the Clarity Act could get passed this year.

[00:06:41]Uh, and it's, you know, it's gone through the committee. It passed the committee. Uh, and we'll see if it can get if it get passed. Remember, it needs 60 votes. So, that's a big number.

[00:06:49]You're going to need some crossover voting there. Um, but I think it would be good for the country to have it. uh if it doesn't if it doesn't pass uh it will cause crypto to probably languish more than I would like to see it but I still believe in the long-term fundamentals of the story and u you know there's a woman by the name of Lynn Alden who I have a lot of respect for [music] she wrote a book called broken money she's been on the wealthy on network I've actually interviewed her uh she has a great line she said nothing stops this train what is that train that [music] is excessive fiat currency spending uh cycles of war cycles of deficit spending uh and the monetization of our debt. You know, our politicians are weaklings. They don't want to tax us uh to pay for the stuff that they're spending on. So, they do something more pernitious and they do something [music] more regressive. They inflate the money, you know, which is the worst form of taxation, Maggie. So, and that's what we've been experiencing. And this is why things like Bitcoin, things like gold, uh I think will rise over the next decade. So it sounds like you're not too worried about the bond market because you know that that's the focus of a lot of folks who I think don't have share your confidence about the inflation picture. They see the huge levels [music] of debt. They don't see Washington functioning very well and they worry this is all going to come home to roost in the bond market.

[00:08:13]>> Yeah. I mean listen I'm not worried about it because of the long-term trend. I is it is it reasonable and prudent to be worried about it over the short term, Maggie? I do believe that yes, because you have uncertainty in the oil markets, you have uncertainty going on because of the war, you have uncertainty still with the Ukrainian Russian situation. Uh and so these things are sort of there's a there's a headwind on the markets. If you told me that we had the Ukrainian Russian war resolved, we had the Iranian Israeli American war resolved and we had the straight of Hormuz open, it's a totally different complexion.

[00:08:53]>> Um, and so the question is, you know, one axiomatic fact throughout history is that wars do end. Yes, they go on. I mean, you could have the Pale Venetian war that goes on for 30 years [snorts] or the Afghanistan conflict that goes on for 20 years. Uh but you're you're you know the Ukrainian war has now lasted longer than World War II, you know, and so so it could go on forever or it could it could get resolved over the next 6 12 or 24 months. I believe it will. Uh I think the market also believes that. So yes, [music] is there's going to be short-term volatility and some negativity and some uncertainty in the uh oil markets which will infect the bond markets? Sure. But long term, I like the trend and I just want I want people to be cautious not to get caught off guard like see why was I so worried about that when these things did get u these things did get better.

[00:09:47]>> The interview also explored detailed Bitcoin onchain analysis. One of the key indicators discussed was Bitcoin's percentage of supply in profit and loss.

[00:09:56]Historically, when this metric reaches certain levels, Bitcoin often forms major cycle bottoms within one to four months afterward. According to the analysis, the current setup resembles previous periods where Bitcoin eventually entered new bull markets. The analyst compared today's market structure to the 2019 cycle where Bitcoin experienced an apathetic top followed by a digestion phase before eventually recovering. Interestingly, there was also little rotation into altcoins during this cycle. Another similarity to 2019. The beautiful thing about this chart is I don't need to know the news. I don't need to know any of that stuff. All I want to know is this cadence that Bitcoin has and how historically when the Bitcoin percentage [music] of supply in profit and loss when it crosses historically the market bottoms within about 1 to 4 months historically within about 1 to four months if you look back at every every bare market you can go look I went through it yesterday I don't want to I don't want to waste your time but it It occurs about every one to or about one to four months after they cross within within about that time frame. [music] And you can see that they have crossed now. And in 2018 when they crossed or yeah in 2018 or maybe it was actually 2022 they actually crossed um in in June and then they uncrossed and then they crossed again later in the year. So, but historically within about 1 to four months of crossing, Bitcoin finds the low for the market cycle, the market cycle bottom, if you will, from which point we would measure the next cycle's returns from that point. Now, this is a great chart, but one of the cool things about this these sorts of charts is that you can you can normalize them, right, between 0ero and one and look at prior performance and get a risk metric. So it's essentially just kind of taking this and normalizing it between 0 and one. And when you do that, you get a chart that looks like this. So this is the risk metric for the percentage of Bitcoin in supply and loss. [music] Now in this case, it's no different qualitatively than this chart. No different qualitatively.

[00:12:34]What's different? What's really [music] different because you can see how similar these charts are. What's really different is other onchain risk metrics. Now, again, it's not a perfect match to this chart, right? It's not a perfect match, but it is relatively close when you normalize prior data between zero [music] and one.

[00:12:56]So, what I wanted to do is talk about other onchain indicators [music] because this is a beautiful chart. Make no mistake about it.

[00:13:10]And I I had some people say, "Well, the thumbnail was a different color than than the website." Well, you can actually uh change this to light mode.

[00:13:17]Unfortunately, by by [music] doing that, I probably blinded a few people, but we'll switch it back. What's really cool for Bitcoin is there's a lot of onchain indicators. The percentage of supply and profit and loss is just but one onchain indicator that we can use. And to go through some of the other ones, we would be talking about the MVRV Zcore, which looks like this, the risk metric, the app multiple, the MVRV score, the minor cap to thermal cap ratio, transaction fees, the market cap to thermal cap ratio, the terminal price, the RH huddle ratio, And of course, supply and profit and loss. Now, you might look at some of these and say, well, we didn't actually go all the way to the top. That's a great observation. This metric does not promise that you will go all the way to the top in every bull market. Just like in 2019, this metric did not go all the way to [music] the top. And as I've said previously, the current bull market or sorry the current the the last bull market we had for Bitcoin and the subsequent bare market in terms of the business cycle most closely align with what happened in 2019 [music] and 2021 where we had a Bitcoin rally and during that Bitcoin rally Bitcoin Bitcoin dominance went up and then Bitcoin topped 2 months before quantitative tightening ended both in 2019 and 2025 [music] and there was also no rotation to altcoins and oh by the We also had three rate cuts in 2020 or in 2019 just like we had three rate cuts in 2025.

[00:15:03][music] So there's a ton of similarities between them. And I know some people say, "Well, it's different." But everything's been different, right? I mean, [music] there's been a lot of differences this cycle. And so we have to look when was the last time [music] the MBRVZ score topped out, you know, around 0.5 to 6 risk and it was in the 2019 bull market.

[00:15:24]And as I said previously, you know, if you look at Bitcoin USD, [music] the only time, right, the only time that it had this like apathetic top was in 2019.

[00:15:35]And furthermore, in that 2019 top, [music] it was it was there was no rotation into altcoins, right? No rotation into altcoins. And that's an important distinction, right? That's an important distinction. Let me load this back up to see if I can I can get uh total assets by the Federal Reserve added onto this chart so you guys can see what I'm talking about. And I think a lot of you guys know uh this at this point. But for the people that are new, you can see how Bitcoin in 2019 [music] topped right before QT ended just like in 2025. Bitcoin topped >> [music] >> um right before right around the time right before QT ended by about two months or so, right? Bitcoin topped and then two months later quantitative tightening came to an end. there was no rotation into altcoins and so I think what Bitcoin is doing right now is similar to the postappathetic digest digestion phase [music] in 2019. So, what's really interesting though is when you take all of these onchain risk metrics, right? If you turn them all on, what I like about it is when you look at the total onchain risk, it shows you where we are, right? And [music] when you include it, when you include everything on here, the current onchain risk is.18.1 98. You can see that historically Bitcoin doesn't spend very much of its time where the onchain risk is below 02.

[00:17:02]It does happen and historically it happens in midterm years which is exactly where we are right now.

[00:17:10]Sometimes it'll happen in like sort of late midterm years going into the early part of the pre-election year, the pre-h having year but that is the most common time it occurs is in midterm years. And you can see that this time has not been different. And so what I would be looking at with this indicator is to have it carve out a low. You see how every bare market this thing carves out a low that lasts for a few months. Look for it to carve out a low before the end of the year and then ideally that then sets us up for the next bull market.

[00:17:46]Now, I think the onchain risk is a great provides great insight into what's going on because I can look at this chart and I just simply don't need to know what the news is. I don't need to know about what geopolitical conflicts are happening. I don't need to know, you know, what the inflation rate is [music] or or where initial claims are or what the president said about Bitcoin last Tuesday.

[00:18:10]All I want to know as more of like a a macro investor is the time historically to accumulate Bitcoin is as the onchain risk carves out these lows. And you can see it looks like that's what Bitcoin is headed to do. Like it looks like that is what we're kind of in the process of beginning right now. And so in sort of confluence with my other video that I published about a week ago where I said that Bitcoin is now in the third and final stage of the bare market, I think that this chart supports that. I think this clearly shows that we are likely in the third and final stage of the bare market and that we should expect Bitcoin probably to bottom out uh this year.

[00:18:53]Right? I think it'll happen this year.

[00:18:55]Obviously, I've mentioned October a number of times, and I think that's the most likely month, but of course, it could happen at any moment. And right now, I'm operating under what I call timebased capitulation, [music] but I would be willing to pivot to price-based capitulation if something like that were to happen. So, I will continue to use the onchain risk metric. We've had this published for several years now and it's done a pretty good job of of identifying the lows and and the highs, especially when you have euphoric highs. And hopefully it'll be useful [music] in in the next bull market, right? And and maybe in the next bull market, we'll have a more euphoric top because the argument is if this whole move that we just had was sort of the 2019 and we're kind of in that post209 top going into early 2020 digestion phase, then what comes after this bare market could in fact be a more euphoric one. Whether Bitcoin bottoms tomorrow, next month, or later this year, Anthony Scaramucci believes the bigger trend remains firmly intact. The fear may feel overwhelming right now. The headlines may sound bearish, and uncertainty may dominate financial markets. But according to Scaramucci, none of that changes Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals. The 4-year cycle continues, institutional adoption continues, and the macroeconomic forces driving interest in scarce digital assets may only become stronger over time. Now, the real question becomes, are investors witnessing the end of Bitcoin's story or simply another chapter before the next major bull run begins? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.