Sports scheduling algorithms can produce statistically improbable outcomes that create unfair competitive situations, as demonstrated by the Los Angeles Rams' experience from 1986-1988, where they faced the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park to end the season three consecutive years—a scenario with odds of 1 in 4,096 that was so unlikely it prompted the Rams' head coach John Robinson to publicly complain about the unfair scheduling.
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Deep Dive
The DUMBEST Schedule in NFL HistoryAdded:
Ever get the sense that the schedule makers don't know what they're doing when they're designing the schedule? You take one gander at the schedule and can take one peek at it and have to do a double take because there's no way that could be right and no way any competent human could look at that and not notice the obvious glaring flaw in it. And I'm not talking about things that you feel you may have been hosed on, like a really tough stretch of games or an early by week, [music] but rather things that you have to question whether the computers took anything into account at all or whether they're just regurgitating random information without any care in the world as to how this will impact actual human beings. The algorithm is very clearly off. And if you've got problems with the schedule today and the job that Mike North and company do, from overseeing basic things to repeating matchups in prime time and in certain weeks like Vikings Packers in week 17 every year to the point where it's the least welcome tradition in the world, just know that this problem always existed. Computers and algorithms are better now and they still make mistakes.
So imagine how many mistakes and oversightes the computers of the 1980s made [music] when it came to stuff like this. And it's not just fans who think that. Turns out coaches can also feel jipped and hardone by the schedule and for completely valid reasons. Because in 1988, this man right here that you've been watching this entire time, Rams head coach John Robinson was fed up with the schedule makers and decided that enough was enough. And he took matters into his own hands by calling out the league for unfair treatment. And this isn't a controversy like Ron Rivera calling out the NFL for not scheduling the Panthers at home after they played in Super Bowl 50. Even though there is nothing that guarantees the losing team of the Super Bowl a home game in week one, which you learn more about by clicking the card in the upper right corner. This isn't a controversy like Dan Divine calling out the NFL for not having the Packers in their season playing warm weather games. Even though the Packers literally play in Green Bay and thus all of their home games are going to be cold weather games, which you can learn more about by clicking the card in the upper right corner. This complaint is pretty legit and nearly four decades later. We're going to break it down today because this is the story behind what might just be considering the circumstances the dumbest scheduling formula in NFL history. Make sure you hit that like button down below, subscribe, hype up that video, and turn on the notification bell so you don't miss a single video that we post on the channel because we post every single down here about the weird and the wacky history of the NFL with stories like this one that you may not have heard of before. So, if you like that sort of stuff, then this is definitely the place for you. Thanks in advance for liking and subscribing and for hyping up the video and for helping us grow this community. And with that in mind, [music] let's talk about the time that the Rams coach told the schedule makers to ram it up their butt. But before I talk about the problem that John Robinson had with the schedule, we need some context to understand what the Rams were doing before this. And to understand the problem with the 1988 schedule, we have to go back to 1986 and go back to this game right here.
It's December 19th, 1986.
It's the final week of the NFL season, [music] and we've got a Monday Night Football game taking place on a Friday night for some reason between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers over at Candlestick Park. This is a big game for a few reasons. Not only is this a nationally televised game, and not only is this a big rivalry game, but this game decides first place in the NFC West. The Rams enter this one at 10 and five, while the 49ers enter this one at 95 and one. Both teams had already clinched a playoff spot as the entire NFC was decided minus the seating element of it. But the stakes for this one were simple. Win and you win the division and get a first round buy. Lose and you're not only playing in the wild card game, but you're playing on the road as the number five seed. The Rams, despite winning the first game on their home field, could not win this one at Candlestick as the 49ers dominated, [music] taking it by a final score of 24 to 14 with the game not even being that close as the Rams scored a garbage time touchdown with under 5 minutes left, down by three [music] scores. The Ners had 27 first downs compared to 12 for the Rams. The Niners had 38 minutes of possession, dominating with the ball.
The Niners had double the yardage that the Rams had, winning that battle 408 to 229. [music] And Rams quarterback Jim Everett went 13 for 35, completing just 37% of his passes for 151 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 24.8, eight, which is worse than if he did nothing but spike the ball into the ground on every single play. Now, let's fast forward one year.
It's December 27th, 1987.
It's the final week of the NFL season, and we've got a battle at Canel Stick Park on Sunday Night Football between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
This is a big game for the 49ers as while the Rams have nothing to play for outside of pride sitting at 6 and8 and mathematically eliminated from the playoff picture. The ners were playing for the number one seed in the conference and a division title. San Francisco entered this game at 12-2 with the New Orleans Saints right behind them at 11 and3 for the division title in the NFC West. If the 49ers won this game and finished 13-2, then home field advantage throughout the playoffs would run through Candlestick Park. If not, then there was a chance that the 49ers would be relegated to wildcard status. Sure enough, this game was a blood bath as the 49ers led it wire towire, taking it by a final score of 48 to nothing in a game where Steve Young and Joe Montana combined to throw five touchdowns and no interceptions.
In a game where the 49ers nearly triple the Rams in first downs, winning that battle 23 to9. In a game where the 49ers nearly tripled the Rams in total yardage, winning that battle 427 to 145.
And in a game where the ners [snorts] won 278- 24 in passing yards. Yes, the 49ers held the Rams to just 24 net passing yards on 21 dropbacks as the Rams averaged barely one yard per pass attempt, which is not ideal. For the record, Rams starting quarterback Steve Dills went five for 17, completing 29% of his passes for 50 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a pass rating of 15.1, which well, you know the drill on that one. And now, let's fast forward to 1988.
It's December 18th, 1988. It's the final week of the NFL season and I'm gonna have you take a guess as to what the matchup is. That's right. It's the Rams against the 49ers at Candlestick Park in a prime time game. Entering this game, the 49ers had already clinched the NFC West and the number two seed in the conference, so they had nothing to play for. The Rams, however, were playing for their lives as they enter this one at 9 and six. Win this game and [music] you're in the playoffs as a wild card and as the number five seed. Lose this game and you're on [music] the outside looking in and the New York Giants are going to the playoffs. Sure enough, this time the Rams won [music] as thanks to four touchdown passes by Jim Everett and a stretch where they scored on five consecutive drives, the Rams headed to the playoffs by beating their division rival, even if the rival had nothing to play for and had incentive to rest guys and not risk anything, [music] which by the way could not happen today as the NFL, thanks to flex scheduling, would not put this game on Sunday Night Football and risk the chance that the Giants get screwed over by the Niners resting guys. Today, a game like this would be the Saturday night prime time game. But I digress. However, this man right here, Rams head coach John Robinson, had a problem with the schedule. In case you couldn't tell, that's three straight years that the Rams final game of the season was a prime time game on the road against the 49ers.
And I know what you might be thinking.
Well, that sucks, but something like that is bound to happen. [music] During the final week of a season, every team plays a team in their division. A team plays six divisional games in a year. So, the odds that you end the season against the 49ers on the road is one out of six. For that to happen three years in a row, the odds are 1 out of 26 or roughly 0.5%.
Is it unlikely? Of course. But is it a reason a cry foul? Maybe not, even if some variety would be appreciated. But remember, this is 1988.
There were no scheduling rules for the final week of the season. Those only got put into place in 2010, which you can learn more about by clicking the card in the upper right corner. There was nothing mandating that teams had to play games within their division during the final week. Heck, there was nothing mandating that teams had to play games within their own conference during the final week. This meant that completely by chance, completely by chance, the Rams had to play the 49ers in [music] three consecutive years in the same exact spot. For the odds of that to happen one time, it's one out of 16. For the odds of that to happen in back-toback years, it's 1 out of 256 or roughly 0.5%.
For the odds of that to happen in three straight years, it's 1 in4,096 or 0.02%.
For some perspective on how unlikely that is, there have been roughly 240,000 games played in the history of Major League Baseball. There have been 326 no hitters in MLB history.
The odds of picking a game in baseball history [music] and having that game be a no hitter is 0.14%.
Meaning that the odds of seeing a no hitter are seven times higher than the odds of the Rams playing the 49ers to end the regular season in three consecutive seasons. That's how statistically unlikely this is.
Something like this, simply put, shouldn't happen. And it'd be one thing if the opponent that the Rams faced was mediocre or bad, but they weren't. It's the freaking San Francisco 49ers. This was the 1980s, so before a salary cap existed, what this meant was that good teams usually stayed good and bad teams usually stayed bad. Everyone knew going into each of those seasons that the NerS were going to be great and were going to be one of the best teams in the league.
They were always near the top of the Super Bowl odds. The combined winning percentage of the 49ers across those three seasons was 72%.
If you look at the strength of schedule that teams faced over the final week of the season from 1986 to 1988, the Rams had by a fair margin, I might add, the number one strength of schedule to end the year. This wasn't just bad luck.
This was a statistical anomaly that had Robinson crying foul. As the man you've been watching this entire time, John Robinson, [music] said on this, that's something that we have to get stopped.
It's one of those things that is inequitable. They told us to check the computer and we don't have the computer code. So, every time we check, we get invalid. It is unfair and we are complaining. Hopefully, we will find the code to the computer. According to John Robinson, somehow for three straight years, the men in charge either knowingly shafted the Rams and approved this or didn't bother to notice that the ending of each season was Groundhog Day.
Especially seeing as no other team had this issue where they ended each of those three seasons against the same opponent, let alone in the same stadium.
We had some duplicate matchups across those three years, but never three straight. Of course, the NFL denied everything with Val Pinchbeck Jr., the lead director of broadcasting, saying that a lot goes into making the schedule and that it's not as easy as it looks, said Pinchbeck. Of course, it's not by design. [music] This year, if we would have had the chance, we would have liked to play the last game in LA. We were unable to do it. But wait a second. Wait a second.
Time out. What do you mean you were unable to do it? What are you talking about? You have the chance. There was nothing stopping you. The Rams share the stadium with the Angels. Baseball season is long done by this point. Yes, there is a bowl game at Anaheim Stadium with the Freedom Bowl being played there, but that wasn't until December 29th. a full 11 days afterwards. And you can't even use that as an excuse because if the Rams hosted a playoff game on either December 24th or December 26th, the stadium would have been available for that. If you have the power to have the Rams play at home and you're admitting that and then you're blaming it on scheduling logistics presumably with the stadium when the stadium isn't even a conflict, then you just keep digging your hole even deeper than I thought was possible. And I love how the NFL made it seem like Robinson was just complaining to complain and that the schedule makers tried everything they could, but you [music] can't please everyone.
Robinson's not asking for much. He's not even asking for his team to play a home game to end the season, which for the record, the Rams were only one of six teams from 1986 to 88 to play on the road all three years at the end of the season. He's simply wondering and fairly I might add why his side always has to end the year on the road against the 49ers when no other team faces the same dilemma. He's not asking you to move the sun and the moon and the stars. He's just asking for the bare minimum. Don't have us play the team that's consistently the best team in football on the road every year to end the season when this isn't a problem for anyone else. Just don't give us the ners to end the season every year. It's not so much to ask for. Now, Robinson did get his wish to some extent the following year in 1989 as even though the Rams had to play on the road, they weren't facing the 49ers as instead they were facing the New England Patriots. The persistence and the complaining worked as the Rams finally got the schedule makers to change whatever biases they had or whatever program had that Niners road matchup as a thing. They finally got to fix the algorithm. It never should have gotten to that point in the first place, seeing as something that happens three straight years that's so blatantly obvious that has a probability of 0.02% should have been nipped in the bud. But better late than never, I suppose.
Because in 1988, all John Robinson wanted for Christmas was to not have the schedule makers give him the Vanessa Williams treatment and save the best for last. Yes, I know that song came out in 1992. Deal with it.
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