AI 버블 논란 이후, 시장은 다시 금리를 바라본다 5월 18일 미국주식시장 분석 #AI랠리#연준#Fed#금리인상 #인플레이션 #국채금리#S&P500 #나스닥 #유가 #지정학리스크

本站添加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]I'll turn to you, just how you're thinking about the market, where we find ourselves after this tremendous run, and of course geopolitical headlines were always at risk of dragging this market in one direction or the other. We continue to be in this battle between sentiment and fundamentals. Where the fundamentals have been pretty strong all year when you look at earnings growth starting the year with expectation 15% on the S&P 500, now jumping to 22%, and basically seeing double the earnings growth that we were expecting in the first quarter. Now, in the first quarter we did see poor sentiment because of AI and then geopolitics. You start off the second quarter there's enthusiasm around this earning season that has been so strong, but now you're getting again to this point where markets are starting to look at bond yields, look at inflation expectations. When you look at inflation break-evens or forward expectations, and thinking about the potential for a Fed hike. Now, what we have seen time and time again over the last couple of years, last decade or so in markets is if you're going to see a durable sell-off, it's going to have to do with Fed hikes. You saw that in 2018, 2022, 2015. So, the bigger risk to me is less around the geopolitics, more around the longer it lasts, and the more it keeps oil prices elevated, the more the market starts to believe that we're going to need a hike.