The Next Decade: Commodities Just Woke Up Against the S&P 500

Ajouté : 2026-05-23

[00:00:01]Hey everyone, hope they're having a good day. My name's Andy, my channel's Finding Value.

[00:00:06]Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media.

[00:00:10]I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics.

[00:00:15]Wealth building, commodities, and or financial topics.

[00:00:18]So let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.

[00:00:22]And if you want to follow me, it's @finding_finance, and if you want to join our community, findingvalue.com, I dive deeper into all these different topics, sectors, looking for investment opportunities, and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community.

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[00:01:05]Will a middle middle coop says, "Huge commodities breaking out from a 15-year downtrend versus general equities.

[00:01:13]Huge confirmation of the start of this new commodities bull market, which [clears throat] could lead to a decades-long outperformance.

[00:01:22]Still very early in this revaluation phase. Wish I owned a commodity fund."

[00:01:27]Obviously he's joking cuz he does.

[00:01:30]There's the downtrend. Well, you know what you know what I do?

[00:01:34]I back out even further than that.

[00:01:36]He's charting only the squeeze here.

[00:01:41]That's the only thing that he's charting there.

[00:01:45]Uh this is actually a bigger bull market than what he is saying.

[00:01:49]This is your downtrend.

[00:01:52]Your first bottom was 2000, your second bottom is now.

[00:01:57]And I would I would even draw this maybe a little bit different. I would draw it like this.

[00:02:03]Here.

[00:02:04]So, this would be like that and then this would be here.

[00:02:09]And then this would be the double bottom.

[00:02:15]Uh and that's what we've got going on there.

[00:02:18]>> [clears throat] >> Big old double bottom.

[00:02:21]Uh and then I think the projection of this fractal is the red line. Now, we have we did break out.

[00:02:29]There it is. You can see it there.

[00:02:31]I even have a little pullback. It's doing the same pullback and everything is uh previous bull markets. And what I did is this here is is just this decline flipped.

[00:02:42]And then I put it right on top of this.

[00:02:45]So, it's just this decline here and it's flipped over to this side.

[00:02:51]That's what's ahead of us.

[00:02:53]That's what's coming in my opinion.

[00:02:56]Commodities outperform in the S&P.

[00:02:58]Uh probably this one says is you know, maybe all the way out to 2038 or more.

[00:03:06]That's what we've got going on there.

[00:03:10]Oh, those onshore oil inventory buffers are running out now. Another leg lower on oil on water.

[00:03:19]Let the scramble for barrels begin. This is the decline in crude and products in millions of barrels on global oil on water.

[00:03:31]Asia burns first, >> [clears throat] >> then the US buffers get torched. All while Iran's output starts to slide.

[00:03:40]At this stage, Asia is pretty much forced into permanent panic buying.

[00:03:46]It's a domino effect that goes global and the final boss is draining China's buffers.

[00:03:52]Everything happens in phases and so far it's all playing out exactly according to script.

[00:04:00]Asia ex-China APAC weekly crude inventory and it is dropping.

[00:04:06]Iran's weekly crude inventory is filling as that's going to get to shut in production.

[00:04:14]So, I guess that's the plan.

[00:04:16]Drain down China while basically uh stopping Iran's production. Cuz this will fill up inventory, it backs up.

[00:04:26]And then when it backs up, it'll shut in production.

[00:04:29]That's what happens.

[00:04:33]Says this, the whole thesis in one tweet. Let's see what that is. This is to understand the magnitude of the coming commodity supercycle, we must first understand the sheer scale of the capital misallocation that created it.

[00:04:48]For the better part of a decade plus, the market has rewarded digital promises over physical reality.

[00:04:56]Driven by zero interest rate policy and the allure of infinite scalability, capital flooded into software, cloud computing, and most recently artificial intelligence.

[00:05:08]Today, the technology sector, broadly defined to include the hyperscalers and AI infrastructure plays, commands more than 40% of the S&P 500.

[00:05:17]This 40% versus 5% divergence, energy and miners, is the coiled spring of the coming supercycle.

[00:05:26]You cannot run a 21st century digital economy on a 19th century physical supply chain that has been starved of capital for more than a decade.

[00:05:35]When the physical reality reasserts itself, the repricing of the commodity sector will be violent and sustained.

[00:05:43]I would agree um with this statement.

[00:05:47]Now, I don't go into his depth of money rotating into into the financial assets.

[00:05:55]The thing that gets me here, it's not just capital misallocation based off of interest rates falling.

[00:06:04]That is a contributing factor.

[00:06:09]I don't think it's the whole factor that I think is coming up.

[00:06:13]Where my brain starts to explode is when you look at what we want to do in the future.

[00:06:21]Artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, the grid.

[00:06:25]My brain explodes when it's when you start to look at, well, where's all this stuff going to come from?

[00:06:31]And I'm not talking about capital misallocation. I'm not talking about capital is going to solve this. We're going to reinvest into new natural resources. What if we invest an infinite amount of of money into natural resources and you still don't get the amount of copper or silver or oil or coal or natural gas that you want. What if there is no amount of capital that can bring on enough supply?

[00:07:01]What if we are resource constrained?

[00:07:05]That is what I worried about.

[00:07:08]I worry about that because just look at America.

[00:07:13]Look at America's conventional oil.

[00:07:19]It peaked in 1970 and has never ever ever even come close to producing more barrels of oil from conventional oil since 1970.

[00:07:31]Yeah, we went to shale oil. Yes, there could be some other stuff out there.

[00:07:35]Maybe, maybe not.

[00:07:37]If we can't produce more from conventional oil, That means it's geologically constrained.

[00:07:46]What that means is that at some point in time in this world, no matter how much money or technology you throw at it, you will be geologically constrained.

[00:08:01]Because if it happens in one field or in one well, all you have for the entire production of the world is the accumulation of of a sing you know, of single wells or of single fields.

[00:08:21]So, single wells make up single fields.

[00:08:23]And if you hit max production in a single well that has a normal distribution curve, you will at some point hit a max geologically constrained production in a finite world.

[00:08:40]Are we at that location? I'm not exactly sure, but we could be for a variety of commodities.

[00:08:49]I'm not so sure that we'll ever produce more gold on a flow rate basis than what we did a few years ago.

[00:08:59]I don't know if we'll ever increase the production of platinum over the 2008 peak or the 2016 peak in silver.

[00:09:10]We may already be in geologically constrained locations. I won't know that until the price goes way up and we try we we try to open up a lot more mines and we'll see what happens.

[00:09:26]I'm just worried that we're going to be geologically constrained, not capital constrained.

[00:09:33]JH, the underlying problem here is that trading oil, specifically the prompt, is becoming completely untradeable.

[00:09:42]To be fair, I have to respect their execution.

[00:09:45]They've completely killed off liquidity and volume, effectively driving traders from futures into options.

[00:09:53]What kind of trader has the courage to size up in this tape? The constant two-way volatility shocks we're getting are completely out of hand.

[00:10:05]They're using volatility itself to suppress prices. It's a highly sophisticated playbook.

[00:10:13]They are.

[00:10:14]Anyone who goes long gets smoked to the downside at some point.

[00:10:18]You can't short it cuz it goes up fast, too.

[00:10:22]It's a tough market to play, and people, quite frankly, are just leaving the market. And that's how they're suppressing the price.

[00:10:29]The volatility is too big.

[00:10:34]J S G latest comparative inventory analysis using EIA data through 520. Latest WTI fair value is $91 based on USA commercial inventories excluding other oils.

[00:10:49]This is up $4 week over week, consistent with pace of a 15 million barrel per day draw noted previously.

[00:10:58]So, if you get a 15 million barrel per day or million barrel draw, this is >> [clears throat] >> it's going to go up about $4 week over week.

[00:11:09]Is what is what this is kind of estimating.

[00:11:13]Actually, it's a 9 million barrel draw, looks like.

[00:11:16]So, 9 million barrels is up $4.

[00:11:21]All right. I I I wanted to talk on this one. I was just reading this. I thought it was interesting.

[00:11:27]He says, "Become a winner by how you show up every day.

[00:11:31]Being a winner about your work ethic.

[00:11:34]It's about growing. It's how you show up in the process.

[00:11:38]You can be a winner and the scoreboard not be in your favor.

[00:11:42]You can't control the result of or other people, but you can control you.

[00:11:47]You can control your preparation, your work ethic, how you show up, how you compete, what you put in.

[00:11:54]That's why you can't judge a winner solely by the reflection of the scoreboard.

[00:11:59]The scoreboard doesn't tell the whole story. The scoreboard relies on external factors, while being a winner is defined by internal ones.

[00:12:07]Winners understand on the scoreboard you either win or you learn.

[00:12:12]The scoreboard may reflect in your favor or it may show you areas to improve on.

[00:12:18]Regardless, it's all about the process and the journey.

[00:12:21]That's what matters. That's what winners focus on.

[00:12:24]Being a winner is measured by your growth in the process. Are you better than you were yesterday? Show up, get 1% better every day, and live in the process.

[00:12:36]And this says, "Be more focused on being a winner than winning games."

[00:12:41]You know, I think in the beginning this is true.

[00:12:46]But when you get towards the end, you need to win.

[00:12:51]Period.

[00:12:53]So, I read this and I'm like, I don't know. I think it treads on like a bunch of BS. A bunch of BS, all right?

[00:13:03]>> [clears throat] >> Let me explain.

[00:13:05]In sports, when you first start out, this this works.

[00:13:11]By becoming a winner, it depends how you show up, your work ethic, your preparation, how you compete, what you put in.

[00:13:19]That works at early stages.

[00:13:22]So, when you first learn baseball, when you first learn hockey, or whatever sport you're playing.

[00:13:28]Uh whether that's investing, too.

[00:13:31]When you first learn, it's about developing your skills.

[00:13:36]You develop your skills and you get to a level >> [clears throat] >> where you maximize your abilities.

[00:13:45]Now, as you progress, as you progress, winning starts to matter and that's all that matters at some point.

[00:13:57]So, when you get to a certain point, you maximize your ability and your ability may not be enough.

[00:14:06]It just might not be enough.

[00:14:10]So, you could get 1% better every single day, so to speak, but you're capped at what you're genetically able to do.

[00:14:21]So, I understand what they are trying to say. I get it.

[00:14:27]But if you want to be the best at this game, you do need to have a winner mentality.

[00:14:33]You do need to have a winner mindset.

[00:14:35]You do need good work ethic. You do need to show up. You do need to compete and you need to make sure what you put in is is of all your effort.

[00:14:44]But let me tell you something.

[00:14:46]That doesn't mean you win.

[00:14:50]Because you have a winner mindset doesn't mean that you are guaranteed victory.

[00:14:56]There are people who aren't smart enough to figure out the game.

[00:15:02]>> [clears throat] >> They may not be They They may not have enough emotional control.

[00:15:08]They may have things that work against them that they cannot overcome.

[00:15:14]For instance, no matter how hard a person has and [clears throat] how they're trying to approach, Let's say they Let's just say they want to be a NFL player.

[00:15:28]>> [clears throat] >> And they want to be a front lineman on the offense.

[00:15:35]Those guys are like 6'3" plus and weigh 280 to 350 lbs.

[00:15:44]And you have Kevin Hart that wants to play the offensive front line.

[00:15:49]He's like 5'4" and doesn't weigh anything.

[00:15:53]What's the probability that he's going to be an NFL offensive lineman? It's pretty much zero.

[00:15:59]And there is nothing that that person can do with a winner mindset that's going to change that outcome.

[00:16:08]The same thing applies to being a professional hockey player.

[00:16:12]If you're 5'2" in, and you weigh a buck 20, more than likely you're not going to make it.

[00:16:20]No matter how hard you work.

[00:16:25]If you have an IQ that's 90, 90, you're not going to be able to figure out fast enough some of the things that are required to maybe become a top investor.

[00:16:37]There are limitations.

[00:16:40]And it doesn't mean everyone will get there, but you have to approach the situation with a winner's mindset to see if you're going to actually make it.

[00:16:51]That's the thing. And what sports have taught me, I mean, I am ruthless, guys.

[00:16:55]I dig and I dig and I refine. I refine like heck.

[00:17:00]And I try to become better.

[00:17:02]But there is a point where talent will take you only so far.

[00:17:07]And and and your hard work.

[00:17:10]You can combine your work your hard work and your talent and it will only get you so far.

[00:17:16]Then you have to make the decision, is it worth continuing to pile effort into this?

[00:17:23]That That's what I'll say there.

[00:17:26]Intelligent people make decisions based on opportunity costs.

[00:17:31]Opportunity [clears throat] costs just means that you are comparing different opportunities against each other.

[00:17:37]And you're choosing the best opportunity.

[00:17:41]Uh and I think that applies to investing. You're looking for the largest asymmetric opportunities with the highest probability of success, and that's your opportunity. And how you can size up those opportunities.

[00:17:56]Not each opportunity is the same.

[00:17:58]>> [clears throat] >> One opportunity might be a lot a lot more risky than another opportunity.

[00:18:03]And that's based off of the companies themselves.

[00:18:08]Or the sector, whatever it is.

[00:18:13]Chris Martenson says, I predict this will happen by 2030. The US will continue to export liquefied natural gas faster and faster.

[00:18:22]It will wake up to the reality of resource limitation.

[00:18:27]The US will then limit exports drastically. LNG export investments will be ruined.

[00:18:33]The energy security of Europe will also be ruined.

[00:18:38]So he predicts that this will happen by 2030. I would agree with him. 100% in agreement with him.

[00:18:47]I think that by 2030 we are going to expose that we cannot produce enough natural gas for all of the demand that we have in the United States for LNG export capacity, AI infrastructure, heating houses, etc., etc. And it will be exposed between now and 2030. 100% agree.

[00:19:09]It will probably exposed in a in only a year or two.

[00:19:14]Probably by the end of 2028.

[00:19:17]But always always under promise and over deliver, so push it out to 2030, and that will probably be the buffer in there to make sure that uh it's covered.

[00:19:30]So, I I I completely agree. So, there is a part of my investment approach deals with this.

[00:19:41]Cuz I don't think we have the natural gas to do it by 2030.

[00:19:45]So, my mindset incorporates that.

[00:19:49]And then you can invest I mean, look at natural gas here.

[00:19:54]Natural gas is probably the cheapest it's ever been in history against gold.

[00:20:01]I mean, it is ridiculous how cheap this is.

[00:20:05]Look at that. Look how cheap we are.

[00:20:07]And then that's going to come all the way back up here. We're going to go higher than this. Why? Because I don't think we have the natural gas to fill it.

[00:20:16]This will be the largest round trip from bottom to top of probably almost any commodity at this time.

[00:20:24]No one's thinking about this. No one is.

[00:20:29]Such a good opportunity.

[00:20:31]Uh Chris Martenson says, "Nobody who lives in the real world can believe we're basically ignoring the largest energy energy shock in history.

[00:20:40]But the fantasy abstractionists truly believe we can paper this over.

[00:20:46]Same with a dodgy pile of human constructed CDO paper.

[00:20:50]I blame too many years of good times.

[00:20:53]He says, "Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times."

[00:21:05]Patrick says there's no way to sugarcoat this.

[00:21:08]It is looking bad right now in the platinum, palladium, gold, and silver space.

[00:21:14]Be patient for the next opportunity to morph into existence.

[00:21:18]Could take a while."

[00:21:20]You know, I I don't really look at this from that perspective. I look at this breakout here. A lot of the times you get a big breakout and then you get a consolidation. He call He's calling it a correction.

[00:21:31]I I don't view the short-term market noise necessarily.

[00:21:36]I think that we are in a gigantic bull market, and I'm not worried about the short-term market timing.

[00:21:44]So, this is a platinum versus the M2 money supply. Looking all the way back, and it doesn't go all the way back here.

[00:21:50]So, think of it as maybe uh let's do gold cuz it has more history behind it.

[00:22:00]So, I think that gold and I'll get this out of here. I think that gold is in a double bottom.

[00:22:06]It's broken out, and we're breaking out of resistance, and we're probably going to do a retest on top of this.

[00:22:13]So, yeah, we're in a consolidation uh on top of that uh breakout.

[00:22:20]Now, I think that the tailwinds are all behind us. I think we have a long way to go higher against the M2 money supply.

[00:22:27]Uh silver outperforming gold, platinum [clears throat] outperforming gold, and all these other things. If we if we were to look at a ratio like platinum versus gold, we are just starting to break out of the downtrend.

[00:22:42]So, I I think that all the tailwinds are behind us, and I wouldn't be trying to play the short-term. I'm only playing the long-term, getting the best value opportunities in the market, and then just sitting in it for the next decade or two.

[00:22:57]I don't have to worry about trading in and out. I just want to buy cheap assets during the bull market.

[00:23:04]We are in the bull market and yes, we could get a correction in it and I'm not too worried about that correction.

[00:23:11]These guys are more worried about being right versus just playing the big move.

[00:23:18]So, that's my opinion.

[00:23:22]Uh it says breaking Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard says the 10-year US Treasury yield is headed towards 6%.

[00:23:33]I've been telling clients for a long time that the world has changed. What markets are always slow to accept.

[00:23:39]Even with this sell-off, the market continues to trade from the long side.

[00:23:44]Bear traps are a thing. So, he thinks that the market's going to continue to go up for yields and then the S&P is creating bear traps.

[00:23:53]I completely agree with them. 100%.

[00:23:57]This is the capital rotation event. It happens when interest rates go up and cross above 5%.

[00:24:04]He's saying we're going towards six.

[00:24:06]Well, that's above 5%. That's when the market starts to roll over.

[00:24:11]And that market rolling over creates the bear traps.

[00:24:16]Well, it'd be a bull trap to be honest, but EIA crude, big inventory draws. So, we've got crude, Cushing, gasoline, distillates, and SPR.

[00:24:28]Well over 20 million barrels. One of the largest draws in history.

[00:24:34]And oil prices went down.

[00:24:36]Think about it.

[00:24:39]A brief history of presidential oil market job owns through the Hormuz crisis.

[00:24:45]Look at this stuff, guys. Trump thinks the war is very complete, pretty much oil sells off, right?

[00:24:52]We've got Trump tells Israel not to repeat strikes on Iranian energy. No more attacks will be made by Israel. Big move lower in oil.

[00:25:00]Trump, very good end and product productive conversation with Iran.

[00:25:05]Oil sells off.

[00:25:07]Trump, will be leaving very soon. Oil sells off. Trump, this will be double-sided ceasefire. We've already met and exceeded all military objectives. Sell off.

[00:25:18]Hormuz completely open. Sell off.

[00:25:20]Trump, they want to make a deal. It's very possible that we'll make a deal. Sell off.

[00:25:26]Trump, we're in the final stages of Iran. Sell off.

[00:25:31]They're trying to job on this lower, boys. They're trying to job on it lower.

[00:25:34]It's not going to work.

[00:25:36]The physical shortages are going to come and it's going to override whatever news gets released at some point.

[00:25:43]That point is when commercial inventories start to deplete this here.

[00:25:50]When this starts to go down, it'll work its way on up like this.

[00:25:56]Up that curve to higher and higher pricing.

[00:26:00]It's coming. Give it time.

[00:26:03]We just got to eat through commercial inventories. And they're using strategic petroleum reserves and everything else to slow the move.

[00:26:14]Codelco revised down its copper production guidance for 2026 to 1.2 1.29 metric million metric tons of copper.

[00:26:25]Look at their production. 1.67 1.58 1.61 61 45 32 33 33. It's declining.

[00:26:36]That's one of the biggest producers of copper in the world, if not the biggest.

[00:26:39]I I can't remember who the biggest is.

[00:26:41]It might be the biggest.

[00:26:43]Or one of.

[00:26:46]They're in decline.

[00:26:48]Uh and that's all I've got for today.

[00:26:49]We'll end it there.

[00:26:51]Uh so give me a thumbs up for the content, subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the website if you like.

[00:26:55]Special and 500 year are the coupon codes.

[00:26:58]Uh and that's all I've got for today.

[00:27:00]So, we've got a Q&A session coming up this weekend.

[00:27:03]Uh it's at uh 5:00 p.m. Mountain Time Sunday.

[00:27:08]All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. Catch you next time. See you.