The Flow Show - Monday 1st June 2026 - The inflation genie is out of the bottle

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:01:17]Good morning everybody. Welcome to the flow show. Here we are pinch punch first of the month.

[00:01:23]new month beginning and uh things gone a bit backwards as far as the Iran deal is concerned. Um and also we've got the genie out the bottle as far as inflation is concerned according to the PMIs which we'll get to in a moment. Um before that just need to say good morning Mr. Kayman.

[00:01:45]>> Good morning Ryan. Good morning everybody. Welcome to June.

[00:01:49]>> Hope everyone's doing okay. Hope you had a good weekend. Yeah, it was all right, mate. It was all right. Yeah, thank you.

[00:01:55]I'm just uh waiting to see whether uh the rain is coming today or tomorrow.

[00:02:01]>> Yeah, it was supposed to come yesterday and uh my garden needs a bit of a water. I can tell you that. But we shall see. Um right just to make you aware anyone who hasn't taken advantage of our special um early adopters entry into trading analytics uh we got our public launch live on face this Friday 5th of June is NFP Friday as well so it's going to be extra spicy so make sure you take part in that um this is your last chance to grab a good deal on joining TA before we do our just normal launch and uh order the prices will be going up. So get in early if you want to take advantage of that. Right, let's get cracking into what's been going on.

[00:02:50]Um starting off in Japan. Um now this actually happened uh last week, but we are now trading below in the BJ's yen index below where they intervened. They intervened at 7271.

[00:03:04]Um the lowest we got prior to that intervention was 7269. We are now at 7251.

[00:03:12]We hit 7268 uh I think Tuesday or Wednesday last week. Uh and then we've been in the 7250s. Um, now this number isn't a precursor for the bank uh or the ministry of finance to step in and give the instruction to the Bank of Japan to start intervening, but it just shows you where we are in the yen as a whole compared to where we were when they intervened. So, we are very much weaker than we were then.

[00:03:42]Uh, okay. I'd say though that uh despite the yen continuing to weaken, things up are pretty steady. It's not volatile.

[00:03:51]We're not seeing 200 pips moves a day and things like that. Um are they going to hold out to uh the Bank of Japan meeting or uh is is this continued weakness going to get them going again?

[00:04:02]It it does feel like they want to sweat it out right until the uh until the meeting and the market seems to be kind of in the same in the same mood. Um yeah, we we are high undoubtedly high in the yen or low in in the yen uh uh as a whole. Um but I mean it's it's extremely steady and um I don't know whether that yenex is is still going to uh to take them over the edge but um we are like dangling just below $116 yen. Uh [sighs] I think the market is is very well aware that that if we take if they take it up above 160 the uh the risk of interventions is there. We heard uh some comments. Um will the Y index be enough?

[00:04:56]Could be. Um we we will see how the start of this week develops. We we do have a few data out um left, right, and center. Um potentially being uh being a mover and then thinking about the dollar um the the European PMIs haven't done much, but u still Euroen continues to hang around very high levels as well. Um yeah, I I think you're right. I think they want to or they would love to uh wait until the Bank of Japan, but the issue that we've seen in markets is that it's not because the Bank of Japan does something that uh the effect is uh is there and u especially not lasting. So it's a bit of a bit of a game of cat and mouse right now, I would say.

[00:05:43]>> Yeah. Because um if if they well if they don't hike um then the yen weakens. If they do hike and we see yen strength for five minutes and then it weakens um they're in the they're in the same boat really. Um there is not a reason why the yen should strengthen for any length of time. Um and only dollar yen if something happens to the dollar. Um so they I think they're still up against it whichever which way they look at it mate. Yeah, absolutely, Ryan. And um okay, it was a Q1 number, but we see the capix uh today uh came in flat. So um yeah, the companies are still still in a bit of a wait and see u mood as well. Not not investing much. Um it's a bit of a it's a bit of a negative spiral if you look at uh everything that goes on in Japan and taking into account extra spending for those those that already very big budget plus some extra on top um if you get your companies stopping to spend um what's the BOJ going to do about all of that and um yeah I they're in a they're in a very difficult situation unless we see something really happening that that would turn around the dollar in a natural way. Um they I think they may they may continue to suffer. They may have to intervene again. Um but uh ideally they would get the the US on board, right? Uh I think Bessent uh Bessent is jumping up and down I think to uh to just come in and uh and and and help the MOF and uh that would be it.

[00:07:25]But uh again um they will have to put it lower and keep it lower. That's what we've been saying since the start and I've been we know about that 152 level.

[00:07:35]But it's not it's not a coincidence that we stopped right around there again and and started to move up again. We see the the speculative flows they continue to sell the yen. Um even even real money continues to sell the yen. It's um no they will have to do something otherwise it's uh yeah I mean the market is going to take it up to 170 if not you know.

[00:07:59]>> Yeah and this is probably the only week I haven't actually got any options on but I may I may do well see how the uh week develops. I may may do a daily on Friday just in case with NFP day.

[00:08:11]>> I don't have any either and I was thinking about it this morning.

[00:08:14]>> You get cold sweats, don't you?

[00:08:15]>> [laughter] >> You're getting a bit sweaty palms not having anything to the downside of because if they intervene it's going to be a relative easy 3 400 pips, right?

[00:08:26]>> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Well, we'll see how the week develops and how sweatier our palms get from [laughter] >> the week. The week or the flow show.

[00:08:35]>> Well, either either [laughter] because I do like to intervene on a flow show. Uh we know that.

[00:08:42]Keep that in mind. As you can see there, um, this is just a CFTC stuff and you got to take it with huge pinches of salt, but uh, those yen shorts increasing when it's againund and nearly 115,000 short the yen now. So those specs aren't going away anytime soon.

[00:09:00]Um, we did get uh the PMI data. Um, and as I said, it's it's a bit genie out the bottle now regards to inflation.

[00:09:08]um their final number, Japan's final number came in unchanged at 54.5. So, positive looking numbers. Um however, input costs and output costs or prices have risen at some of the steepest rates on record. Um so, this is something we can see in a lot of the PMIs. Um Australia as well, um their final number came in at 50.7 um versus 50.2. two again selling price inflation at 45month highs amid sharp rises in input costs um we got some data out of Germany retail sales soggy down 0.4 uh 0.3% which was a beat of expectations but still negative number so no real uh benefits there uh Spain's manufacturing PMI this was the first number came in at 51.2 two from 53.7 expected was expected to rise. Uh so it came in lower than last month.

[00:10:12]Uh again here price pressures uh both sides of the coin. Now we've seen particularly uh well in a few countries particularly in Europe they were trying to hold off firms trying to hold off passing higher input costs on i.e. prices charged u but now that seems out the window. um the weight of input prices is now forcing firms to pass those costs on these that inflation is the second round effects that central banks have been looking for. Uh so Spain as I said doing that Italy they came in with a better number 52.9 plenty of stock building evident in that price pressures again evident both sides France um saw a little bit of an improvement over the flash number 48.9 but still in contraction over last month stock building higher input higher output prices Germany um they moved back into expansion just by pip uh after being a pip under that line. Still negative last month again.

[00:11:18]Strong input costs, strong output costs.

[00:11:20]Uh but uh employment's getting a big hit in Germany as well. Um over to the Euro number that came in a small positive over the flash number, but still negative. Uh UK PMI again that came in positive. And if you read the details, it all sounded ticky boo. Um five of the components looking positive. business optimism at 3 month high but again higher input prices higher output prices uh so the inflationary effect there and a lot of stock building um so the comments in that report suggesting that that optimism and those uh that decent number uh and those higher components may not last um so this is the thing we're going to be looking at next okay um as I say we're now seeing output prices rise which is what the ECB are looking for.

[00:12:13]But it all it's all coming with either stock building or weaker activity, job losses. Um the perfect scenario for the ECB to hike into.

[00:12:22]>> Yeah, exactly. [laughter] The perfect wrong scenario to hike, right? Um yeah, but I mean if you if you listen to they they they are pushing uh for one.

[00:12:33]Uh does seem that we that we're heading versus towards one. um price pressures are there to stay and uh as we can see from the overall situation it's not uh we don't find a solution yet. So um just a repeat of what we have been repeating and that's for as long as it uh the longer it lasts the worse those prices will get and um yeah you see if we believe everybody at the ECB now they are ready to press the button.

[00:13:04]Um now could we because we're not seeing that much of an effect in the euro um regarding these hike expectations. Is this a bit like the UK and the the political thing where we didn't see a move in the pound till sort of the the day before um rather than days before like we were expecting is the market just trading Iran and then you know two days before the ECB it will wake up and go oh we need to trade this. Well, if you if you look at how um just look at the two events, uh one is pushing uh could be pushing Euro a bit higher because of narrower interest rates if the ECB hikes. But on the other side, since the start of the whole conflict, we have uh we have been saying that the longer it lasts, the worse it would be for the for for for Europe as well. Um unless they get all their energy from from from elsewhere, but or it's not only energy, of course, it's it's it's other stuff as well. So you got those those two forces maybe pushing a little bit opposite sides and as a result we we we are stuck.

[00:14:03]>> Yeah. Yeah. That could be a case as well. Um but we'll see. We got those meetings coming up and uh yeah we've had uh some other ECB bods talking hawkishly as well. ECB Simus said there's scenarios that would lead me to not uh sorry there are scenarios that would lead me to not support a hike are unlikely i.e. more that they would support a hike. Um he also said a second hike is more likely than not. Um they added uh a little disclaimer saying that after June the ECB should collect data uh and not feel it has to act immediately. um then did the usual can kick to the projections saying in September we will have new projections for a broader assessment of the economy.

[00:14:49]Um also said that 25 or 50 pips worth of hikes during this year won't have too much of an economic impact. That remains to be seen u but we shall see. The first one to really talk about an additional hike too. Um ECB Schneable says we cannot uh look through the energy shock any longer. Um and it wouldn't be uh a week in Europe without uh a growth cut.

[00:15:18]Bank of France's Veroy says they're going to be cutting their growth forecast for France. Uh it says growth forecasts are to remain positive in most scenarios.

[00:15:29]Let's see where that turns up.

[00:15:31]Um we've had Fed heads on the board as well. Fed Schmid says, "My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot."

[00:15:39]Um, says, "I place little stock in believing the recent inflation jump is transitory." Um, says, "We are not very restrictive on monetary policy right now." Um, could use a balance sheet to create policy restriction. Um, and we have the optionality to go up and down in interest rates. So, sounding hawkish without actually calling for a rate hike. um and may want to look at other measures to create that further restriction. Fed Bowman uh says she would consider a shift in the policy outlook if wardriven inflation broadens.

[00:16:14]The Fed can look through the energy shock if it stays credible on monetary policy. Uh still too early to gauge the Middle East war's impact on the economy.

[00:16:24]Fitz Pson says firms are having a hard time planning for the future. monetary policy is appropriately positioned at mildly restrictive levels.

[00:16:35]Fed to Goulsbeast says it's certainly a possibility that the next move will be a hike.

[00:16:42]Um, US Treasury Secretary Bessant speaking on uh Walsh and what he might get up to in the chair says he 100% approves of Walsh getting rid of forward guidance. We'll have to see how that turns out. Uh K, are we going to get anything um along those lines, do you think, at Walsh's first FOMC, or is he going to take some time to put some plans together?

[00:17:07]>> I I haven't really looked in depth as as all at all the calendars, but um he's been extremely quiet since he's been nominated. Um I' I'd love to hear from him. Uh but I mean it's his plan to um to uh uh reduce greatly reduce communication and uh and maybe even the dot plots etc. And uh we will we will see um I think [sighs and gasps] it's going to be very interesting the that that first FOMC meeting he leads because uh because of the reactions afterwards.

[00:17:41]Um, imagine that he that that he presses on the fact to communicate less. Are all those other um Fed governors going to really remain quiet? I mean, Goulby Goulby he loves >> Goulby still be out of a job.

[00:18:02]>> Yeah, exactly. I mean uh and but but most of them uh have comments and um it's going to be interesting. Very interesting. Um the um the the one thing it's a bit early maybe to talk really about the FOMC but since he's quiet maybe we we might as well uh talk about it is is the interesting thing there is telling the market or not um how really he plans to tackle interest rates versus the balance sheet and I think there we may see some moves especially in the bond market etc uh coming from if ever he gives some some relatively clear details about how he plans to do that because that that's his main uh approach, right? Um first the reduce the balance sheet but at the same time try to keep interest rates uh low and that's it's it's going to be a very interesting one that's for sure.

[00:18:57]>> Yeah, I think this meeting is a it's a got potential for a few grenade headlines to dropped in. Um and it is a projection meeting. Um now whether he changes things up now um I think that might shock the market a bit or whether he just goes with the status quo and then looks to put in place uh whatever changes he wants to make.

[00:19:16]>> Um but yeah, if he if he does decide to change things up at this meeting, yeah, we we could be in for a bit of a fun ride.

[00:19:23]>> Traditionally, traditionally a new a new Fed uh chair um should should cause some uh some waves in the market, right?

[00:19:32]Especially now this one is is very much awaited by uh by the market. So and espe and also with the geopolitical situation uh I think the yeah and then of course yeah S&P or or or the the equity markets will move uh obviously but um I think the interesting one there is is how is the bond market going to react to what uh to what this FOMC meeting is going to give us.

[00:19:56]>> Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, at bare minimum, the risk is just what he says about monetary policy, let alone the rest of it. Um, because this is his first one, and if we don't hear anything before it, um, then the first words we're going to hear his his path, his position on things, this will be the first time. So, it's going to be a big one, whatever happens.

[00:20:17]Right, let's move on. Uh, we're no closer to a deal in Iran. Um, in fact, things looking a bit further away than getting to a deal or I keep saying a deal, but it's this bloody. If they can't agree in MOU in in how many weeks, uh, you can imagine the problem we're going to have getting a full deal done.

[00:20:36]Um, nukes are still the sticking point according to uh, well, last week they apparently positions had closed. Um, now Iran has been saying that they're no closer. Um, there's been no negotiations regarding the details of the nuclear program. Uh, Lebanon is now another sticking point that's been thrown in because that's still kicking off over there and Iran's making that part of things even going so far to say that uh, kicking over there is a breach of the ceasefire by the US. So, we're still nowhere further forward.

[00:21:11]um risk isn't reacting too much to this K.

[00:21:17]Um are we going into ignore mode or you know because the the longer this goes then I mean Trump said oh don't worry about it we're going to get a deal but he's been saying that for the last two months. Um is there going to come a point this week perhaps where the market's going to go you know what nothing's coming and it's going to think about hostilities kicking off again. um which are actually if you look at uh well I mean it's not it's there's no massive amount of uh stuff lying around but but it's it's just continuing um I think it's yeah I >> we're we're in that zone where the market wonders whether this thisou will uh will be signed but if um if the result is that they have to get in again or whatever yeah then we are going to have another round of of of risk of the the the thing is that I mean equity markets are really I [snorts] mean attracting still a lot of money I we're probably going to see maybe a remake you know um from a higher level if you just look at the S&P uh so we had the the the sell off from 7 1/2 down to uh 7.3 and then uh maybe that's what we are going to see but from 7,700 back to 74 and uh and then see what happens there and um money yeah money is still being put to work. Um if you look at uh at at the equity markets which are basically if you if you okay there's there's there's some stuff going on in the in in the bond market but more on um the the curve rather than really that I mean really moving a lot you know um the curve has flattened just a little bit um but [snorts] uh yeah I mean the those equity markets sites they really are um defying the laws because of gravity. Um I I'm I'm nearly hoping for to see a good setback uh again just to know whether whether it is a FOMO or there is no alternative or or something which which really it has the looks of being a Tina trade right now. Um but I do think if you if you look at and if we come back to what we've been saying the longer it lasts the worse it should get and we are seeing um as you were pointing out this morning starting of those those second round effects those can actually force the market to um to get back into more a riskoff mode um if the conflict continues you know.

[00:24:00]Yeah, >> your microphone just >> you're not as sorry. Yeah, you're not as if you're seen a negative reaction in in German stocks or anything in regards to the the data this morning. Um, you know, firms are are looking on the the brink of having a bit of a downturn, but who cares? Who cares? Let's just carry on going up in stocks. But, uh, yeah, that's that's the way of the world at the moment. uh has been for many years.

[00:24:29]Right, let's have a look at uh what else is coming up this week. Let's just ping that in there because I didn't lost it because I didn't have it in there to start. Um so later on today we get the final uh SP global US manufacturing PMI.

[00:24:42]Then the ISM number. Um so we'll keep an eye on the components there. See if we get the same sort of thing, prices paid, employment and whatnot.

[00:24:51]Um we get flash inflation numbers from the Euro zone um tomorrow which the market might have dialed down expectations on the the high side given what we've seen from some of the CPR readings not quite hitting expectations though still producing some uh hot numbers. Uh we get US jolts give us our first uh look at the jobs of the week. Um then on Wednesday we get all the services PMI is dropping through and ADP which shouldn't be uh too much of a shocker considering they've the weekly numbers have all been positive once again.

[00:25:29]Uh factory orders and we get the ISM services number which you can be where the market makes it all the last minute uh considerations for the NFP on Friday.

[00:25:41]Um on Thursday, get a bit of data out.

[00:25:44]Euro zone, retail sales, change of jobs.

[00:25:47]Um that might be one to look at because it has been uh running fairly hot over the last few months. Well, that's if it doesn't drop early. Uh we got an early one. Uh maybe they've changed the time because they've actually got a time change in here. They've got it at 10:30 a.m. now. Um it used to come 12:30, two hours later than that. So maybe they've uh haven't changed their clocks from the clock change. Uh and then on Friday, the big number is obviously going to be the NFP and we also get Canadian jobs as well. Um anything else uh there K that tickles your fancy?

[00:26:23]>> Um no, I think you um you mentioned all of it. It's uh it's a jobs week. Um and it's a geopolitical week still and uh it's the uh PMI week. So in theory there is perhaps a chance that we start to break a few of those wages hopefully uh looking at the uh the option VS um those hopes could get quashed very quickly but um yeah um in in theory we should have a week where where where we would at least see some some sort of moves.

[00:26:58]>> Yeah, I think just you got to do what we've done for the last few weeks.

[00:27:01]you've got to trade them either just as a short-term move. Maybe it knocks the trend of the day out of sync um or you just file it away for what the economy what fundamentals macro picture is doing. Um once we get over this Iran hump um I expect the same thing for the NFP unless it's a a massively big variation. Um then we're going to see the market moving for 10 minutes uh and then going back to what it was trading before. So, we have to see what that geopolitical situation is come the end of the week and when we get that data.

[00:27:35]Right. So, that's uh shows you everything that's coming up this week.

[00:27:39]Um I don't think there's any other events, but uh I haven't seen a calendar for for those. I know we had uh the Bank of Japan thing last week. Um so, there might be some other bits and bobs popping up. We'll deal with that as they come. Right. So yeah, I think I I think UA speaks in parliament at at one stage this week as well, but >> yeah, >> forgot exactly when.

[00:28:01]>> No, that's a usual thing anyway. Um but uh it's probably a bit too early to start getting the old uh BJ sources. Um unless they're really adamant on getting the message out. Um but we should be on the look for that in the next week or so.

[00:28:16]>> It speaks on Wednesday apparently.

[00:28:19]>> Yeah. Okay. I'll keep an eye on that then when well when I get up in the morning. Uh right, where should we go?

[00:28:25]So, we was looking at the euro. There's really not an awful lot to report. We still can't get through this 1660s uh on on these rallies into here. We did have that pokey up on Friday, but back below.

[00:28:36]We're now banging head on it um right today. Uh can't get through it. Um obviously, if we do get through, we we remaining pretty well bid. Well, you know, we we're sitting around this level more than we're sitting around the lows.

[00:28:51]Um so that suggests the market perhaps wants to have a push higher. Um and if it can be bothered, uh then we'll probably get through there and it's probably going to be up at 117 pretty quickly there after um this 1630 still being a bit of a pivot level um on and off. Um that dollar yen, this was moving with risk a bit. Okay, you know, we we were edging up towards that 156 and then all that positivity on Friday and we dipped a bit, not too far. Um can't hold under this 15920s now. Um so it's again another pivot area. Um down a bit sideways if we get if things go wrong.

[00:29:32]That could be one reason why we see this moving back up to 160 if things go wrong in Iran. Um but if we if we get thisou signed um can you see a bit of downside for the dollar more than the than upside for the yen?

[00:29:47]>> I should do for both um the dollar and the yen Japan because Japan is a big beneficiary from beneficiary or or big taker uh from everything that goes through the gulf. One one other thing that I'm that I'm looking at just uh is the nickel nicke is absolutely flying and uh if we look back at all the correlations um don't know if we can if we can really um take into account this correlation right now but but the Nikk flying is usually also negative 440N as per their correlation but um yeah that that could also have to do with it. I mean that thing is absolutely rocketing.

[00:30:28]Yeah. It's it's the biggest mover actually over the whole um the whole period >> and and what are they like in Japan um in terms of you know piling into stocks you know are they are they as crazy for them as as the US are for for their own stocks?

[00:30:45]>> They could yeah could do um maybe a little bit of repatriation as well. Um yeah. Yeah. I mean they they and and let's not forget that the Japanese whales are are what they are whales. So if they if they uh uh buy their own uh their own equity markets, I mean who is going to stand in the way? But um yeah.

[00:31:08]Okay. I mean, it's uh I would have thought that really um it would have been September, but this whole this whole episode is is throwing everything uh throwing all all like u plans made uh at the start of the year are are probably all out of the window and uh we we we trade like maybe even dayto-day, you know, although Japanese whales as we know, they usually usually only change investment uh patterns uh twice a year, right at the start of the uh new fiscal year and then u at the half of the uh um of the fiscal year.

[00:31:45]But um yeah, I mean they they seem to have uh to have but you know what it could could just be that they are not yet piling into JGB so they plan they they um they sticking into uh the uh the nicke >> Yeah, exactly that. And what about like the the the average consumer? Uh are they crazy for stocks? play.

[00:32:08]>> Yeah. Well, I mean they they they like to play outside, but um if they if they themselves are maybe a little I'm not going to say that they should feel pain from from those higher yields in uh in Japan. But um it could it could also be that they they have been a little more into uh into equity markets than um than JGBs because I mean if they uh during the Abbe a corona period obviously but um if they still have this this pattern of uh of uh buying risky assets as and it's not I don't think it's actually Mrs. is what but it's their sons and nephews and th those are the younger generation right so um >> that's a generation which uh is is probably playing more stocks than uh than JJB's which is an old man an old men or old woman's game for them >> and if you know if they're making good returns then you know they'll be taking profit and spending the money which helps the economy so it's it's all a >> it's that uh virtuous cycle that uh Let's not forget that uh there's two big fans of uh of the Japanese markets now.

[00:33:28]It's uh Buffett has been on it since well basically since even before co but especially since 2022 and then now they have a new um best friend forever. It's Jamie Diamond from uh from JP Morgan.

[00:33:42]He's uh he's very supportive of the Japanese market.

[00:33:47]>> Yeah, exactly. So uh it's all going well at the moment. Uh, right. I'm going to uh knock it over, mate.

[00:33:53]>> Mhm.

[00:33:56]Um, I'm going to have a look at Whoops.

[00:33:59]What is this?

[00:34:01]Can you stop sharing, please?

[00:34:06]Oh, here we go. Oh, there must have been something wrong there. Um, I'm going to have a look uh at what's happening in that um in the Aussie and the Kiwi because um we've seen a bit of a change here and um first of all, let's look at the dollar pairs. Um okay, all those dollar pairs and Ryan showed the Euro dollar. Um so the end of month actually went as expected. They were dollar sales. We we saw the Euro dollar trade higher. We saw cable go higher. We saw the antipodians both uh being extremely well beat on uh on Friday. So we hit the highs on Friday, whatever it is in the Aussie or the Kiwi. The Aussie is actually trying trying trying to get a foothold in this 7080 zone uh right now which is a relatively interesting zone in the very very short term at least. So if that could hold here, that would be interesting because um Kiwi went quite close to 60 but couldn't uh hold and we are already back uh below that that little line that I uh put in there, prior high here, prior high here.

[00:35:18]So we went uh overshot it really a little uh by by a few pips the the Wednesday the 6th of May high. Um but we couldn't really reach the 78.6 anyway. I mean, it was it really was a that fixing move, right? Uh and that's shying away right now. So, the Kiwi is uh giving back a little more than uh what the Aussie is giving back as that we can see here. Um so, the Aussie looks like it's looks like it's uh um getting back a bit and we see it obviously on the Aussie Kiwi.

[00:35:52]So we had that that second part of uh uh the week last week really really really dropping uh quite fast and we can see here as well um it even accelerated in the fixing then I don't I don't know whether this is a real low that that 1980s or so uh because it's again at the at the right at the open of the of the Asian markets but um I think it's quite interesting that we are holding this uh 11970 120 zone. Um bit of the highs here dropped slightly below and now we are getting back we already back to that 120 65 excuse me which was the 61.8 of that uh that move higher here the last leg higher. We we're already back there. It does seem that I'm not saying that this whole correction now is over but it does seem like we had this end of week end of month move and now we we need to uh wait for for something new okay and but if you look only at this move that we are seeing at at the start of the week I'm I'm reluctant to to to start selling rallies here and uh but it's going to be very interesting I think if we get back into this cluster of uh into this traffic zone that we had which is at around 121 figure 10 stretchy 215 maybe uh if we get back up there then we will have to see whether the correction can continue or if it's really starting to be a reversal but this one to me I'm personally not going to to sell rallies I would rather like to have another look at in in the 119 have a 120 zone to see what happens there because we could we could end up being um something like the cable, you know, before cable at uh 13380, we had it at 13280 uh at a while as well. Uh banging banging banging on it and then going higher. We had this this here as well. You know, we remember we talked about it. Well, I'd like to see some kind of similar thing happening in the in the Aussie Kiwis getting back down here and see if we can form a a base here. And if we can, maybe this correction is over and we can start to uh to go higher again. This is kind of how I look uh how I look at things. And to get back to the cable, well, we are in a bit of a triangle here. Um it is okay. This this again is the the fixing move as I as I said on on Friday.

[00:38:32]So, we're back in the range like the Euro dollar is doing as well. Um, but the Euro dollar is a different kind of range than than than the cable. This this is really a triangle. So, watch what's what's happening. If we get back uh up around 134, 8085, if it breaks, we can maybe push again up into the 135s.

[00:38:52]On the downside, I think this one I'm going to take it out. But on the downside, uh I think it's 134 3540 just in between as the level in between. Uh but again 13380 is it it could come back into into play. Yeah we had a bit of a dip below here but then the retest we held and we we went back higher. So this is your triangle to start the week. Um based on those PMIs and I'm not sure whether uh we will see how the US will come out. I'm not sure whether we we have to read it really positive for the sterling but we also entering June where we have this this Bernham u um buy election on the 18th of June if I'm not mistaken um that could play in the sterling but in the meantime we have seen this market as Ryan was already mentioning just ignore it all until the day of or or just the day before so I actually wouldn't be surprised if the sterling behaves a little uh a little better. I don't know what you think about that, uh, Ryan, but it does look like the sterling to me um wouldn't need too much to go for a little wonder higher.

[00:40:05]>> Yeah, it's got its teflon coat on. Um, I think maybe we see the same thing we see uh we saw last time where again we don't trade anything until like the day before, >> couple of days before.

[00:40:17]>> Yeah. And then and then so we have this this this data coming out, right? I I just wonder if if we are not going to have another retest at at 86 figure 20 on Euro Sterling. Um >> be nice. Yeah.

[00:40:29]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Uh yeah. I'm actually uh I'm actually thinking if we see a little bit of a of a move back up to 8670 to actually try and short to go to to see if we can get down there. But of course uh we will see what happens uh with with all the data of course. um trying also to keep things interesting because uh not a lot is really uh moving. Um dollar cat did exactly the same thing as in the antipodians and uh and and the rest of the the currencies.

[00:41:00]That's the fixing. That's Friday's fixing, right? Um and now we are back at it this 61.8 even even a bit higher. I do think if that really was the fixing etc the the end of month that this can actually continue its grind higher. We know um there's going to be talks about uh around the USMCA as well uh this uh this week. Uh by the way I mean US wasn't really overly friendly towards Mexico but uh still leaving doors open etc. Um but they will be harder against uh against the uh against Canada. So I just wonder if this this blip higher if we see a little bit of a move lower if we are not going to find again a bit of bits and uh and continue to uh to move higher. Of course party over if we start to break below these lows here. I know there's a trend line but it has been traversed a lot of times. Um I think already uh 1373035 uh that's going to be the main level to watch uh for for this week in the dollar Canada as long as it holds above here.

[00:42:08]It looks still solid and maybe going to try for a little wonder higher. Um I'm basically through what I wanted to show uh the um Euro Swiss. Yeah, I entered just a small again on Friday. Um we seen the the nearly traditional now Swiss buying into uh into month end. We stopped right around uh the fixing time a little bit before uh close to 91 the figure on the Euro Swiss and now we are starting to move higher again. So this is uh this is interesting and makes this 90 figure zone again a a very nice watch on the Euro Swiss. I think for as long as we are above there maybe stretch it to 7580. Um it it it looks like we we can go and uh have a retest at least of this 7091 7080 zone. And uh Ryan, with that, back over to you, mate.

[00:43:00]>> Thank you very much, mate. Uh we'll leave it there for today. Um all that's left is to wish you a great week ahead.

[00:43:07]Uh have a good day today and we'll see you on Face Later. If not, we'll see you on the flow show tomorrow. Have a good one, everybody.