🚨WAR Is BACK On? | Oil Surges Again, Stocks React

Ajouté : 2026-05-11

[00:00:10]All right, good morning everyone.

[00:00:15]So futures here are flat to lower and oil here kind of the uh the fulcrum of the market here right now. Again, overall, we're still kind of seeing that same uh ignorant market here. Semis are set to gap up and uh you know, it's not really affecting things too much currently, but oil um you know, flirt around with the 98 handle. I did kind of there was a trade I was looking at pre-market um for a reclaim of 98, which happened. I did not take that. I took a much better a much better one. Um it's basically paid for the whole week here uh on silver futures. Uh we took a swing on that too.

[00:00:56]And um yeah, we in at 8180 and uh we're up about $2 now, which if you're not familiar with silver futures, um that's a lot. Uh but anyway, so nice stuff. By the way, last week to get in on uh Active Trader, 60% off first month.

[00:01:16]So that that's just probably paid for the year right there for most accounts.

[00:01:20]But anyway, um nice move there on silver. I do like that SLV75 for LG1 today. And uh yeah, it should should hang out up there. I think Friday has a little bit more upside to it as well.

[00:01:33]Uh possibly to 80, but you can see LG1 here at 75 today. So very nice stuff. Um yeah, maybe growing a little bit at 76 here, too. So good stuff. Holding a runner there. I'm still holding a runner in bonds as well over the weekend, but that one's a little bit softer. You can see TLT actually gapping down here today. So, bonds still respecting kind of the uh the macro news cycle. Stocks not so much. You see oil popping right now here again. And yes, actually backing off a little bit. We'll see what happens. NQ still in range. It hasn't even broke 282 28 230.

[00:02:08]So, right now, um I have not really played around with the ES much. I took most of Friday off honestly as I didn't even do a video there. There's not really much else to say other than uh you know what I already said on Thursday. But right now um yeah, we'll see if the market backs off. You know, my bias here right now is that we can see you know hopefully some sort of topping action today or tomorrow and then uh kind of get some sort of uh you like mean reversion into the uh the middle of the week. Um, and meaning reversion could just be carving out a range for OPEX really.

[00:02:43]But right now here and still the leader and as long as chips are still up uh you know you got to you got to respect it. Yields up a little bit too as I mentioned with bonds. Um spreads here you know I saw a lot of talk over the weekend about financials.

[00:02:58]Look spreads are fine right now. Um HY is you know acting okay. I know XLF backed off. I think a lot of that has to do with Bergkshire underperformance. It was up a little bit late last week, but I wouldn't worry too much about Fins just yet. Uh if they do start to show concern, I I'll I'll say it, but I don't think so right now. Dollar yen, another kind of bare FUD thing there going on.

[00:03:23]Um you know, it's hanging in there. If this really starts to come down and we have a lot of leverage in chips, which we do, um then that could be a problem, but I don't think we're quite there yet.

[00:03:32]Bitcoin backing off over the weekend, but still hanging in there. Okay. ETH was good on Friday. So was Soul. Soul actually pumped over the weekend a little bit. So that one was pretty strong. Kind of upset for not picking that up on Friday, but that's all right.

[00:03:46]But E- Mini right now, let's watch the overnight low. Uh 7390 for traps.

[00:03:54]Outside of that, uh we might see a little bit of a quiet uh start to the week. I think we have CPI later if I'm not mistaken.

[00:04:01]So, that's to look forward to. Not that anything matters anymore.

[00:04:07]But, you know, it'll matter when it does. And that's all, you know, that's all we got to really look for here.

[00:04:16]So, not much else going on here. Yeah.

[00:04:19]Tuesday. Okay. Yep. So, tomorrow. So, we'll see if that does anything. I mean, like the market's been kind of ignoring literally everything like whether it's good or bad. Um, and it's on its own time here. We'll see. Maybe oil, you know, I don't even know if there's a number here. Maybe 110, right? Like that that seems to me maybe the number that could push the market, but um, not even RB has done that.

[00:04:44]And RB made new highs. So outside of that, we do have uh I know we do have 7,400 LG1 today on SPX.

[00:04:56]There are strikes higher on Kikq though.

[00:04:59]So again, it's not it's like they and it doesn't matter because they've been gamma squeezing it every single day.

[00:05:06]Every single day. Um I mean they're just they're just preemptively putting 725 up there for today. Like like you can see SPX here, 7,400 LG1 here. So, yep, silver is headed higher this morning. I know. I bought some and I'm already done for the week here.

[00:05:33]So, yeah, I'm already up at $2 on silver here.

[00:05:38]So, that was a pretty easy one, honestly. Um, you know, the breakout wedge there.

[00:05:46]Um, and then you kind of had that inside of here.

[00:05:52]So, pretty easy one with the LG at 75 on SLV, which is right where we stalled too on SLV or above it just a little bit, but we'll see. They're starting to add 76 I see now. So, I'll take it. Riding a runner here risk-free.

[00:06:18]Yeah. I mean, you keep telling me UIX is lifting and uh I don't know, man. One day it'll pump. I'm sure it does look like it's slowing down a little bit, but uh you know, I I talked about VIX 16. I didn't think we were going to get below that. We hit 1618 and it did bounce. We did see a little spot up on Friday.

[00:06:39]So, that that that is something I'm looking at.

[00:06:44]But, um yeah, right now NQ's still acting well. see SMA set to gap up.

[00:06:50]Think we could see some topping action today or tomorrow. We'll see. But silver strong. That's a sign of risk on here.

[00:07:08]All right.

[00:07:10]Yeah, SLV is still going. 76 next up there.

[00:07:15]That's probably about 85 for silver futures.

[00:07:18]Gold inching up a little bit too, but nowhere near as strong as SI. Bond still hanging in there. Okay.

[00:07:26]And oil holding up pretty well. Oil's hanging around that 98 handle. I'm glad I didn't take that and took silver instead.

[00:07:35]I do like that 98 level though. And 99 also.

[00:07:40]Nice sweep there though.

[00:07:45]So anyway, we'll see what we get here today. We'll we'll uh we'll cut it a little early. Not much going on uh with the with the futures here. And I'm probably going to size down for the rest of the week here is that silver trade.

[00:07:56]It's still going, too. So, I did not expect to take that. That was kind of a whim here. I just checked that pattern.

[00:08:01]I was like, "Yeah, it looks like it's going higher." It went higher. Very nice.

[00:08:08]Any thoughts on Schiller K? No, I I don't think it I think it's meaningless.

[00:08:12]I think they can stretch valuations as much as they want.

[00:08:16]I I I really don't. I I mean I I think I've heard I've heard people about valuations every day of my life ever since I started investing. That's what I think.

[00:08:27]And I think the the returns of the S&P are now tied to tax receipts, which is all that needs all you need to know.

[00:08:36]And valuations can come down without stock prices coming down, too, just so you know.

[00:08:45]But anyway, we'll see what we get here today. Uh, let's see if they push us through 7,400. And my guess is maybe not. This is actually respecting it for once pre-market, but don't count out those cues here.

[00:08:57]So, anyways guys, I will get it to the room here. You guys take care. Have a great rest of your day and we'll see you guys all in the afternoon video.