Keep BOTH EYES On These Areas Of SPIN...

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]I'm tracking multiple areas of spin and low pressure just off the coast to start the month of June.

[00:00:06]In today's video, I'll show you the setup that could lead to tropical or subtropical development in parts of the Atlantic to start the month of June, plus an ongoing and increasing likelihood of a severe weather threat as we go into the start of this week. And if you stay long enough, I've got the latest and brand new model data on new rain totals on the way over the next 10 days.

[00:00:29]Well, it's officially the end of May and we are ending out the week as well.

[00:00:33]Don't you all always love that whenever a Monday falls on the 1st of the month?

[00:00:36]Well, that's tomorrow for June 1st and we've got a bit of an interesting pattern setting up that I think is likely to produce a pretty strong or feisty at least low pressure right off the southeast coast at to start the month. Let's talk about it and break down that pattern and the setup for this system. If you've been tuning in at all this week, I keep using the word battleground and tropical battleground to be exact and that's exactly what's going to cause it, folks. This is a look at our dew points at the surface. Uh, call it the muggy meter if you want to call it that. Either way, where you see these more purpley colors, that's where it's feeling like summer. It is hot and it is muggy down in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, southern South Carolina this evening, still quite muggy. But, you go up towards North Carolina, up towards Greensboro, Raleigh, up into Virginia, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, up through the northeast, yeah, it's quite dry out there actually and in fact a bit chilly as well. We'll talk about those temperatures here a little bit later on.

[00:01:26]Uh, but this boundary is going to be creating some spin out there. This is a pretty common feature that often happens uh, in the atmosphere. Anytime you have clashing air masses, that's an area uh, where rotation is going to increase.

[00:01:37]It's the same thing that causes uh, storms to be tornadic along dry lines and cold fronts during this time of the year. Uh, it's a lot of the time whenever we get these little mesoscale tornadic setups in the Carolinas. It's due to a CAD boundary. In this case though, it's likely going to form low pressure offshore. Notice, latest run of the European model shows that by tomorrow on our Monday, a little bit of a coastal low pressure getting going along that boundary. And uh that's not going to be the only time that this boundary could fire off some low pressure. Notice another area of low pressure showing up here by the time we get on into your Wednesday. I think a great way to look at this is going to be our low-level spin map. And uh let's talk about it. So, this is vorticity uh at 850 millibars. So, about a mile or so up generally speaking in the atmosphere. Notice that boundary is creating a lot of spin. So, by tomorrow you've got one little area of low pressure uh kind of riding along the boundary and strengthening as it passes over the Gulf Stream getting a bit of uh what we call a uh bareoclinic boost and uh instability, if you will. That's just due to the temperature differences of the ocean. And uh then another area starts to get going here by the time we go later on into the week. Wednesday and Thursday on the European shows that. And notice how these all kind of pull up the coast. If you're far enough ahead in the time, some of that energy even gets left behind and then kind of ends back up in the Gulf. Uh you can see as you get further out in time on the European energy down that way. Also, we've been talking about Gulf energy this week.

[00:02:59]Here it is uh on the latest European uh down here into the western Gulf. I'll tell you the models have been all over the place. Uh one moment the European had a little bit more of a defined piece of energy moving up into Louisiana. The GFS said no. Then yesterday the European joined the GFS. Now today the GFS kind of back to showing uh this spinning up a little bit more and bringing enhanced rainfall to Louisiana. We'll talk about that whenever we look at uh the rainfall maps here later on. Uh on top of all of this, we're also getting an upper-level boost. Uh a lot of upper-level diffluence aloft ongoing out there. I talked about this in yesterday's video and uh I talk about it really all year long on the channel cuz I think it's such an important tool for meteorology.

[00:03:36]Here is our jet stream. You can see that is what we call kind of the axis of it or the center of it. Anytime you're on the right-hand side of that or the exit region of that, you're going to get some enhanced lift in the atmosphere. And that's also overriding the Gulf Stream.

[00:03:48]So, that's kind of what's creating uh this potential area of spin out there uh that uh we need to watch and really a couple of them. And as I showed you some of that energy trying to get kind of bottled up and almost hanging out there for a while. See how this piece of energy tries to cut off. That will be something to watch. And you can even see a little bit more of it cutting off further south towards the Bahamas as we go into next week. So just a lot of energy flying around to monitor that could end up impacting the forecast as we go ahead into time. Something else I'm watching is localized areas of spin that could produce some strong to severe storms for some of us in the Southeast tomorrow. Let's talk about it.

[00:04:24]Really quick, literally 10 seconds. Go ahead, like the video and subscribe if this video is helping you plan your week ahead so you're always up to date with the latest model data. All right, back to the forecast.

[00:04:37]Well, we've been talking a lot about the tropics over the past well, much of this week really. But there is also severe weather threat I want you to be mindful of starting really now going through tomorrow through parts of the Southeast.

[00:04:49]Let's go ahead and break it down with you with the latest run of our HRRR model.

[00:04:53]All right, so this is again kind of a high resolution model. So think of it like you're watching a 4K TV versus a 1080p. The global models I show you, the Euro, the GFS, the Canadian, those are your 1080p models. This is the 4K model, which is why I'm actually recording this twice because loading it crashed my computer literally just 5 minutes ago.

[00:05:10]So hey, that's okay, part of the process. All right, we've got some showers and storms down towards Georgia, South Carolina up into Tennessee already on this Sunday evening. And remember, this is where that battleground is that I've been talking about. What else did I mention about the battleground? I said it increases spin. That means yeah, a non-zero tornado threat out of some of these storms this evening. Not anything I'm overly super duper concerned about, but be mindful of it especially as we get right into here tomorrow morning.

[00:05:38]That energy is going to then hit the Atlantic, start to really spin up some low pressure. One, we're going to get some very heavy rainfall out of this through parts of the PD down into the low country and out towards the Grand Strand of South Carolina even down towards Wilmington, Lumberton, and Fayetteville could get some rain out of that. But also, I would not be surprised to see a quick spin-up tornado or two.

[00:05:58]Definitely a waterspout for sure going to be something I think you see just offshore of Charleston and Myrtle Beach tomorrow as that low pressure spins up.

[00:06:05]On top of that, look at what starts to happen back out to the west a little bit for our friends in the Tennessee, Missouri, and eventually later on further south. We've got this complex of storms working down and you can see pretty feisty storms from Memphis, Huntsville, Birmingham by tomorrow afternoon on your Monday. Also got some leftover storms out over the Outer Banks as well. So, we'll kind of move the map right there so you can kind of see it all happening at once. Keep it going in time and that looks to be some very strong wind. So, that complex of storms is going to pack a real punch into Birmingham, really much of Mississippi, Alabama, and then eventually races down towards the Gulf and even gets into the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow evening. A lot of lightning, a lot of wind. And maybe even some embedded tornadoes. Look at that, even more showers and storms trying to form tomorrow with a complex out of Charlotte, eventually down towards Columbia, Greenville, Spartanburg, down into the Charleston area. And you could just see a lot of these complexes of storms to watch. Now, here's why the severe weather threat is a little bit higher. I'll go ahead and turn on our CAPE or our thunderstorm map, our thunderstorm fuel map rather. Right now, you can see the boundary quite well.

[00:07:09]There's not an ounce of thunderstorm fuel over Charlotte. Now, that doesn't mean it's impossible to rain, but the severe weather threat lower there because of that. Got a lot more of that fuel though back out into Alabama, Mississippi. You're on the muggier side of that boundary, the more unstable side. Here we go by tomorrow morning.

[00:07:23]Notice some of that thunderstorm fuel creeping up into Charleston and into the Grand Strand. Like I said, maybe a quick spin-up tornado not out of the question.

[00:07:30]Keep it going here into tomorrow afternoon.

[00:07:34]And some of that thunderstorm fuel tries to build back into the Carolinas, kind of especially South Carolina. We've got it in Georgia. You can see where that complex of storms is eating up the fuel there in Alabama and Mississippi. So, that is something absolutely to watch.

[00:07:46]Final thing I'll show you in this segment is our significant tornado parameter or where the ingredients the highest for a potentially tornadic storms? Well, uh this evening not a whole lot of it, but a little bit there uh maybe into the Florida Panhandle and then by tomorrow morning again, I know it's not a lot, folks, but just watch this out near Charleston. We've got some of those ingredients there for maybe a couple tornadic storms. Uh again, would not be a very big deal, but something worth mentioning. And then as we go later on into time into tomorrow afternoon, yeah, some tornado ingredients try to build back in, but more of a straight-line wind threat than anything with those storms that develop tomorrow afternoon. All right, we talked about the tropical spin. We've talked about uh the uh severe weather threat. Now, let's talk about rainfall totals and then track this out uh further into time with a look at the temperatures and the uh well, future radar.

[00:08:35]All right, let's also talk about the nicer side of this before we take a look at those rainfall totals that could potentially be on the way. Remember, like I said, if you're in the more desert-y colors here, it's going to be chillier and it's going to feel a lot drier if you're up into the Northeast tomorrow for your Monday down into the Mid-Atlantic, but the second you hit the South Carolina state line basically, yeah, we call it the armpit of hell for a reason because [laughter] it's going to feel like it in Columbia, Charleston down to Georgia, Florida going to be hot and muggy on your Monday. Remember though, those strong storms are going to feed off of that fuel. So, uh that's something absolutely to keep in mind.

[00:09:08]The good news, if you can hold on through Monday and you can get through Tuesday or into Tuesday really, I should say, uh I think that drier is going to really start to make a push further south by Tuesday evening. We're starting to feel quite nice. These are temperatures overlapping the muggy meter. Feeling good in Columbia, Greenville, Charlotte, really much of the Carolinas outside of maybe uh Savannah, Beaufort, and Charleston.

[00:09:27]Still hot and muggy down into Florida on your Tuesday evening, but you go a little bit further ahead into time.

[00:09:32]Check it out by Wednesday morning. Look at these temperatures down into the 50s into parts of the Carolinas, uh 60s as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 40s mixing in there in parts of the mountains there of the Virginias. A chilly start to the morning for the third day of June here up into the northeast. Still pretty warm obviously down in the Florida though. Keep it going. That dry air continues to push in by Wednesday afternoon high temperatures. I mean this is very impressive stuff folks. Only 70s and 80s for areas as far as south as Georgia during the first week of June. Yeah, June not March or April. These are June temperatures. All good things must come to an end though eventually if you start to go towards next weekend hot and humid weather returning here with the temperatures and that muggy air as well.

[00:10:17]All right, that's a look at temperatures as well as obviously the um dew point map. Now, let's give you a look at that future radar and talk about who's going to see rain. So we've talked about through Monday. By the time we go into Wednesday afternoon, notice dry for most of us but that frontal boundary still parked over Florida. So I think so going to be pretty wet down towards Fort Myers, Miami, Key West. Here's that coastal system just offshore. Maybe some of those showers and storms try to make it into the outer banks. Keep it going ahead into time by the middle of the week. That coastal system tries to pull out of here but that leftover boundary still bringing some showers and storms through South Florida. The Gulf still remains pretty active but all dry for your Thursday up in the northeast, mid-Atlantic and really much of the southeast. Then eventually though that train of moisture starts to come back and I think by next weekend we kind of are done with the nicer drier pattern. Now, with that said, there are still some rainfall numbers to iron out here and some differences in the models.

[00:11:13]So the European model will show you let's go through the next 10 days or so.

[00:11:17]Actually really starts to dry out in Virginia, North Carolina. Still a lot of rain tonight and tomorrow into the low country of South Carolina down into parts of coastal Georgia. Notice South Florida still a hotspot on the rain map here but drying out in the panhandle.

[00:11:30]That train of moisture though does still kind of remain there for parts of Texas and Louisiana as the European model shows here. I'll even show you the GFS cuz there are some differences. The GFS once again trying to spin up that Gulf energy and has a lot of rain just offshore and bring some of that moisture up into parts of New Orleans out towards Biloxi, Mobile as well, Gulfport. But still drier into the Mid-Atlantic, drier up into the Northeast, tries to return some storms out into the Ohio Valley. So definitely some uncertainty as well going on here, but that's kind of a look at future rain. All right, let's go ahead and give you the end card today.

[00:12:04]Tropical battleground setting up is the big story and that tropical battleground is leading to multiple areas of tropical spin to monitor. Could we get something tropical or subtropical? Not out of the question, but I think it's more of just a fun meteorological feature that will be increasing rip currents. So I know a lot of folks going to the beaches this week, be mindful of that.

[00:12:22]And then the other big story is that severe weather threat tomorrow. We talked about that there for at least a good couple of minutes, so that is good stuff there. All right, other thing obviously are to follow me on the other socials. You know I love it whenever you do that. So here obviously on YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, Twitter, X, all the fun things. They are right there. Just look me up. Follow me on all of those socials. All right, folks, I appreciate you tuning in. Hopefully you enjoyed today's forecast. If you did, let me know down in the comments below and come back tomorrow for the start of June and for a brand new update on the pattern ahead.