Iran and US exchange fire as ceasefire extension deal takes shape | DW News

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]US media are reporting that the US and Iran that they are close to signing off on a ceasefire extension. Now, the deal would create a 60-day window in which the straight of Hormuse would be reopened. Iran would reportedly also receive some form of economic relief, the fate of Iran's nuclear program. It would be addressed in another later round of negotiations. These details are reportedly part of a memorandum of understanding that is being discussed by both sides. The current ceasefire, which began in April, is under pressure.

[00:00:36]Iranian state television broadcast video of what it said were missiles launched at US bases in the region. Kuwait, which hosts a number of US military facilities, confirmed that it came under a drone and missile attack.

[00:00:51]Iran said that this was retaliation for a US strike on Iran earlier this week.

[00:00:59]>> What the United States did was met with a decisive response from the armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and it was certainly a violation of the ceasefire and Iran will respond to any violation of the ceasefire.

[00:01:15]>> Well, for more now I'm joined by Charles Kubchun. He's a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and also a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. Professor Kubchin has advised both US President Clinton and Obama on foreign policy. Professor, it's good to have you with us. You know, you heard there in the beginning of this program details on a possible extension to the ceasefire between the US and Iran. They are not firm at this moment, but it does seem clear that the question surrounding the future of Iran's nuclear program will not be addressed in the near term. What is your reaction to that?

[00:01:52]Well, my first reaction is let's wait and see. Right. We've heard on multiple occasions that we're almost at the end point. A deal is about to be signed and then all of a sudden it falls apart. I do think there are reasons to be optimistic. Number one, neither side has taken the opportunity afforded by these tit fortat strikes to go back to war. If they wanted an excuse, they have an excuse. I think what we're witnessing is both sides exercising restraint. And number two, both sides have a very strong interest in getting the straight of Hormuz opened. The reg Iranian regime cares about one thing above all else, regime survival. Donald Trump desperately wants to see the price of oil go down before the midterms. Both of them, I think, even though they don't agree on the underlying issues at stake, are ready for an interim deal.

[00:02:50]>> The war began exactly three months ago today. And and other than the degradation of the Iranian military, which I have to say that we are unable to independently verify, do the US and Israel, do they have any reason to declare mission accomplished at this point?

[00:03:10]>> At this point, no, they do not. Uh and that's because Brent, even though there are of the these claims of decapitation, of massive degradation of Iran's military capability, intelligence services are telling us the opposite.

[00:03:27]That 30 of 33 Iranian missile sites on the coast along the street of Hermuz are now operational. That 70% of Iran's missile batteries are now operational.

[00:03:38]They stuck them underground. They hid them. Now they're bringing them up. So Iran has a lot of fighting capability left. What we don't know and what we won't know even if there is a 60-day extension is whether the Iranians are ready to make concessions on the critical issues of the nuclear program.

[00:03:59]Both the export of their highlyenriched uranium and very significant restrictions on the enrichment of uranium going forward. Those will be the subjects of these negotiations that would follow on an interim agreement.

[00:04:13]Whether they can get to yes and allow Donald Trump to claim victory, anybody's guess at this point.

[00:04:19]>> There have been military skirmishes, you know, this week between Iran and the US at the same time as ceasefire and peace deal negotiations have been taking place. Professor, have you ever seen a foreign policy like this? I mean, is there a strategy in in what appears on the outside to be erratic and counterproductive moves by the US and one could also argue as by Iran as well?

[00:04:47]>> Well, I I think that that both both sides are to some extent improvising improvising in some ways the United States more than Iran. And that's because this is a war that from Trump's perspective has gone sideways. He thought that the to the regime would topple in a week or two, that folks would take to the street, that Trump would go down in history as the president who had the guts to do what no one before him would do, take down the Islamic Republic. Well, guess what happened? The biggest oil crisis in modern history. And now Trump, I think, is looking for a way out without capitulating. He said yesterday, "Hey, I'm not in a rush. I don't really care about the midterms, but he is in trouble politically. He already lost moderates. Uh he lost independents. The only people still with him are the MAGA Republicans. Guess what? They don't like this war. So for his own political future, Trump desperately needs a deal.

[00:05:54]But it has to be a deal. Is the deal that Obama negotiated. We're not there yet. If you look at what has happened in just the the last few months, we've got Europe taking the most significant steps ever to be more independent from the US security umbrella. You've got the US military's weapon stockpiles exceptionally low, according to the most recent report. And controlling the straight of Hormuz is now a weapon with which the global economy can be held hostage. This sounds like a disaster for US foreign policy. Is it?

[00:06:31]You know, I I think we have to to wait and see how this story ends. It is possible that we could get to a point where you no longer have a sustained Iranian threat to the region, whether with nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, support to proxies. That's where Israel and the United States were heading originally. Whether we get there or not, I think really depends on how things unfold in the weeks and the months ahead. But I think there's no question that this was not a war that has served Trump's interests or America's interests. Russia and China are the beneficiaries in part because the United States is again mired in the Middle East. This is a war that is causing new divisions between the United States and its allies. It's a war that's dividing the United States internally. So in that respect, it is to some extent blown up in the face of the Trump administration.

[00:07:31]And you can see on a daily basis, their struggle to find a way out.

[00:07:36]>> Professor Charles Kubchin, Professor, as always, we appreciate your time and your valuable insights on this developing story. Thank you.