my thoughts on red blue button debate

本站添加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:01]Hey everyone. Um, today I want to talk a little bit about this moral dilemma that's been taking over the internet. You might have heard of it. This red button versus blue button debate. Um, it seems like everyone has heard about it by this point, but I'm just going to, yeah, talk about it because I have some feelings about it that I want to share. So, for those of you who don't know what the debate is, the idea here is that we have a red button and a blue button, and everyone in humanity gets teleported to their own room and they have to pick one.

[00:00:37]If the majority of people pick blue, nothing happens.

[00:00:44]And you'll see in a second that this is a desirable outcome.

[00:00:49]The majority pick red. All the blue people, all the blue presses die.

[00:00:59]And that's again what happens if it's 50% or more. So 50% or more 50% or more.

[00:01:13]The question is to me a two-part question, but the main question is what button would you press? The second question I like to ask is, is it unethical to press blue? Sorry, to press red.

[00:01:25]This question is fascinating to me because it reveals I think a lot about people by their first instincts about how they want to approach it. And I just I guess I just want to talk about a couple of the ways that friends that I've spoken to without naming names have approached this problem and how I just think it's fascinating how everyone doesn't view it the same way. So the first way this question can be approached and a lot of people call this the selfish way is as nothing but a game theory problem.

[00:02:01]And when I say a game theory problem I mean like a selfish game theory problem in the sense that utility the thing you want to maximize is you not dying. This is the least interesting way I think someone can view the problem because it doesn't address the fact that there are clearly moral questions happening here.

[00:02:16]But if your goal was to not die, yes, you should pick red because if you picked blue, you might die. And if you pick red, you definitely don't die. So that's the most simple one and the one I don't really have much to say about. The second way I see this problem is as a question about power and larger systems.

[00:02:39]So, what I mean by that is in in voter mechanics in elections and stuff, a lot of people won't vote or they'll sell their vote or whatever. And it's because they'll say something like, "Well, my vote wouldn't be the one that matters, right? My I'm not the swing vote." I can't really think of any election where it was decided by one vote. So it technically holds that in every election that we've had at least here any one person could have not voted and the outcome would have been the same.

[00:03:12]Now obviously if everyone does that the outcome will very much not be the same.

[00:03:16]So I think one way people view this question is a question about how much power you have in the large systems. You might still press red and and know like you know red probably shouldn't win. is a bad thing, but there's no way in hell that you're going to be the one person that tips it over the line to make red the majority. And for that reason, you might want to press red.

[00:03:38]You can make the same argument for blue, of course, but red is the main one you'll make this argument for. They're there is like, yeah, I mean, I'm not really morally responsible for all the blue deaths by pressing red because if red wins, I wasn't going to be the reason I won, right? Um, this is especially true if there's an even number of people in your population. Um, but if you but if you pressed red with this logic and you found out that it was, you know, difference of one vote, you're going to have to concede that that vote was you. But ironically, everyone who pressed red is going to feel that way. So, in a way, you might not even be right. You're probably still going to absolve yourself of your moral sins somehow, even if it is a difference of one vote.

[00:04:21]We get this a lot in politics. people who sort of have have political views but they won't show up on voting day.

[00:04:26]Just to be clear, this is different from the both sides are bad things. So if someone if you're in a political system and you think I'm not going to vote because both sides are bad. I think that's kind of silly because I think in a liberal society you should vote for the less bad option. It's something that bothered me about a lot of people on the left actually in the US when it came to this whole Trump Camala thing. I if you're on the left vote Kamala I think I I get that not voting is a protest.

[00:04:53]But sometimes the stakes are just too high. And I think we've seen how the stakes how high the stakes were in New Zealand. In a New Zealand context, we have some parties that just won't win.

[00:05:05]So for example, we have a party called the opportunities party and if they don't get above a certain percentage of the vote, they won't win. And the last election, it was very clear they weren't going to hit that threshold. But a lot of people still preferred them to the other parties. And this is a left leading party. And so a big debate and an interesting debate was about something called strategic voting which is the idea that you know should you always vote for the best party even if you know your vote probably won't count and I it's a sort of similar mindset.

[00:05:33]I'm actually in favor of voting because I think it does set precedents. But I suppose I'd have to concede like with the American analogy that if the stakes got way too high and you on the left say you should just vote for your major leftwing party and not um not a party that might where your vote might not matter. But I want to live in a system where I want to move away from a two-party system where there are more options. Anyway, I'm getting sidetracked. I might do a video at some point about voting systems because they are fascinating.

[00:06:01]But anyway, that's another way people can view this question is a question about your power as an individual in larger systems.

[00:06:08]The next way, and this is probably the most common way, is as a moral dilemma.

[00:06:14]Um, I'm going to write moral question.

[00:06:16]So, there's a moral question.

[00:06:19]Um, yeah, there's death involved. Why would it not be a moral dilemma? So, there's a very popular meme or meme, a day going around that some kid's going to pick blue essentially, right? There's going to be some kid. He doesn't understand what he's being asked because remember all of humanity is going to be put in the situation. And that kid is going to say, um, you know, blue is my favorite color, so I pick blue. And I guess the moral argument is that we have a moral responsibility to try and help save that kid by picking blue.

[00:06:48]I'm going to write that there. We must save the kid. What I find interesting about the blue people here is that the blue people seem to acknowledge that the kid is kind of dumb for picking blue, which is funny because they are now going to pick blue, but we're going to see similar ironies on the red side. We must save the kid.

[00:07:11]Um, these I don't like people who will moralize this question too much. In in all the polls that I've seen, the majority say that they will pick blue, but we don't know what we're actually going to pick. I think you're going to seldom find someone who says they're going to vote red and would actually vote blue. But the reverse will be true a lot, right? A lot of people are going to say they're going to pick blue and moralize, but then not actually pick blue. I I'm not confident on what would win, but I think it might be close. Um, the next way you could view the problem is as a question of action versus inaction.

[00:07:49]So, this is what the trolley problem is all about. And you would have heard of it before, but I'll really quickly just draw it at least. So, you've got your trolley.

[00:08:04]Oh, wait. No. It's very important that the trolley was already going to go one way. Okay. So, the trolley is going to hit five people.

[00:08:14]And you can pull the lever and divert the trolley. they can only hit one person, right? And the question is, do you pull the lever?

[00:08:22]And of course, as a utilitarian, somebody who wants to minimize losses, you probably should pull that lever.

[00:08:28]Now, the issue is that some people will say that there is a meaningful difference between an action and an inaction when it comes to morality. The basic idea is that well if I can never escape being wrong, being wrong doesn't actually mean anything. So if I'm doing nothing, surely I can't be doing anything wrong, right? Um but there are a lot of things that you're doing wrong by doing nothing. Some could argue like right now I'm not giving to charity. I'm choosing to do something selfish. You know, this is saying I find fun. I could be donating money right now and I'm not.

[00:09:04]Right? There are tons of inactions that I think we can consider unethical.

[00:09:08]But it is a very common strain of thought to say that, you know, if it's if you're not doing anything, you're sort of opting out. You know, I guess the question is like, can you opt out of a system? This person, if he doesn't pull a lever, five people are going to die, but he's going to feel far less responsible than if he just killed the one person. He's sort of saying, "This isn't for me. I don't want to be involved."

[00:09:29]Now, with the buttons, it's interesting because you're being forced to pick a button.

[00:09:35]You have to pick a button for the purposes of the question. So, there is no such thing as an inaction.

[00:09:40]But there are different ways that you can rephrase this problem to make the answer seem a lot more obvious. Like for an example, what if there was only a blue button and the blue button was labeled um kill yourself unless over half of others also try to kill themselves.

[00:10:16]And there's no other option. Now, if you don't push the blue button, it feels less immoral because it's now an inaction, right? The options are now, do I push the button or do I not push the button? Not pushing the button now feels like a default, like not pulling the lever. And honestly, when you when you label the button this way, pressing the button sounds stupid. So, what do you mean? Why would I I don't know who's going to push it. Another thing I've heard, another way I've heard this analogized is you imagine there's all of humanity standing in a circle around a giant wood chipper. And the question is, you want to get into the wood chipper or do you not? And if you get into the wood chipper, it gets turned on unless more than half the people get into the wood chipper. It's the same kind of idea now where not getting into the wood chipper, which means pushing the red button in this analogy, feels like it's okay. It's like, you know, you see your mate get into the wood chipper and you think, "What the [ __ ] wrong with him?" And in a sense, it feels like he might even deserve to die for his dumb decision- making. I'm still going to emphasize that some kid is going to climb into that wood chipper, and I want to save the kid.

[00:11:28]Another way that you can think about this is, you know, what if everyone started inside of the wood chipper and it was turned off and you can stay in the wood chipper and this is now the blue action. Remember, it's turned off. you're not going to die.

[00:11:41]Or you can get out of the wood chipper and vote to turn it on. Now, that's the red option, right? Do you want to get out of the wood chipper and vote to turn the wood chipper on? That feels a lot more moral now. And that's sort of more how I see pushing red. Um, but there's no reason to pick one of these analogies over the other. I think the framing is actually very fair how they don't pitch either one as an action or inaction. I think all these analogies offiscate the moral question because they introduce this action first inaction debate which a lot of people don't even think is morally relevant.

[00:12:15]So there's two buttons you have to push.

[00:12:19]In actuality someone could just not push either button I guess but I don't know where we are with that. It's not an interesting question.

[00:12:26]The final thing I want to talk about is faith in humanity.

[00:12:33]And this is the last way, the last thing people think about that I've noticed face in.

[00:12:46]Some people when they hear this question, all they're being asked from their point of view is, "Do you think the majority people are going to press red?" And if you do, you should press red. And do you think the majority people press blue? And if you do, you should press blue. And that's the whole debate. Um, if you think it's going to be sort of 8020 either way, pressing red feels pretty reasonable because either you've just killed yourself, if you press play, you just killed yourself in a reason.

[00:13:15]And if you press red, you haven't really added to anything because it was already going to happen.

[00:13:21]And also, if red's going to win, if red's going to get 80% of the vote, which might happen, I'm not denying this. And you're going to press blue. Let's say before the dilemma starts, you can talk to your friends about what you're going to do, maybe convince them, and you're convincing them to also press blue. What you've done is you've created a death cult.

[00:13:46]No, I spelled that wrong.

[00:13:49]I need to get a new keyboard. A death cult. Death cults are generally considered bad, but if I knew that red was going to win or I had some evidence that no one else had and I was still going to try and moralize picking blue and I go to all my friends and I say, "Let's all pick blue. Strengthen numbers. You know, we can get this done."

[00:14:08]I'm doing something so much more evil than someone who just presses red and doesn't know anything, right? Because I'm aware that red's going to win. So, I'm not going to deny that this isn't part of it. Do you have faith in humanity? It's just this question is really ironic because you're not just if if there are two people here acting in a system, right? This person here, so person A is asking, do I have faith in person B?

[00:14:37]But person A's faith in person B is going to be intrinsically based on person B's faith in person A.

[00:14:44]He's not just asking, do I have faith that B is a good person? He's asking, "Do I have faith that B has faith that I'm a good person?"

[00:14:54]And you're going to see how this is going to go. It's going to go forever, right? Does B have faith that A is a good person? That's based on if A thinks B is a good person and vice versa, forever. Do I think, they think, I think, they think, A, they think, I think, forever at the end somewhere there's a person and that person's either good or bad.

[00:15:14]But we've gone back and forth so much that it's actually completely irrelevant if that person is person A or person B.

[00:15:20]This person here is like is just like an archetype now. It's just like a a figurehead for humanity. This is like the average person. And even the average person's thoughts are going to be of this nature.

[00:15:34]So there's no there's no person at the bottom of this infinite back and forth that we can even analyze morally. And it's because everyone thinks about this question in all these different ways.

[00:15:47]The only one I will very heavily protest is this one. I love game theory, but this is not a game theory problem.

[00:15:55]Well, well, it might be like a utilitarian deontological dilemma where it's like, do I want to maximize how do I maximize the lives lost? That's a very serious question you can ask. I'd argue that ties into the moral question inherently, but it's not a game theory problem in the sense that it's how do I maximize my own chances of survival.

[00:16:13]That is selfish and it's not what you're being asked. Or maybe it is. The question might just be, are you selfish?

[00:16:20]Um, I've got some friends who are very intelligent who would press red and what I think is irrelevant. I don't think they think they're doing something wrong and that's fine.

[00:16:32]like like they they're doing it for good reasons. I think you can press either button for good reasons. I guess it's kind of my point. But if you're pressing red and your only reason is because, you know, [ __ ] them stupid blue people. They don't deserve to live.

[00:16:45]I think you are either very very hateful or you're not thinking about the question properly. Or you're just you're just taking the piss. You're likely just taking the piss. A lot of memes about this question.

[00:16:56]My favorite meme that I've seen about this question is one of those IQ distribution memes.

[00:17:03]And in the IQ memes, if you I don't know if you've seen them, what they do is they give a one of those IQ Gaussian distributions and they have three people. They've got the midwip which has got an IQ of 100.

[00:17:18]Then the high wit who's got like an IQ of like 145.

[00:17:23]And then the low width has got an IQ of like 75.

[00:17:28]And the punch line of these IQ distribution beams is usually that ironically it's always the low who has it wrong and the low and the high will agree. You see this a lot on like religious things.

[00:17:43]So like this might be like a redneck who's like I think God is real or something and it's like I don't form but it's like fine that he thinks that or whatever. I'm not saying this by the way. I love I this is just what the meme was. And then this guy's like the atheist and he's like no actually God's not real. I can prove it. You know I here's a quote from Richard Dawkins or whatever. And then this guy's like the enlightened like ah God actually is real man. I haven't spoken about my religious beliefs yet on this channel. So we might get to that. I'm not picking a camp here. That's just a meme I saw. Anyway, this iteration of the IQ distribution meme, this guy was a kid and the kid said, "Blue, we'll write blue because it's a kid. Blue is my fave color.

[00:18:32]That kid is pretty wholesome, but he is dumb. IQ75. He didn't think about the question, right? Low IQ. He'll get if he lives past the question, he will get smarter." And then the midwware is saying, "No, you must pick red. Are you dumb?"

[00:18:53]It just makes the most sense.

[00:18:58]No faith in humanity. Inhuman uh blah blah blah. This guy, he's a midway.

[00:19:08]He's like giving a philosophy essay. He doesn't actually know what he's saying.

[00:19:11]This is like the average like person whose first instinct is to pick blue is is to pick red games. This bit midware is talking about all of these concepts that I've discussed in this video and not understanding any of them which is a big problem. Now this is the highwit and guess what the highwit says?

[00:19:33]Some kid is gonna pick blue.

[00:19:39]I must save him.

[00:19:43]This is This guy's cool. I love this guy. This guy, I want to be his friend.

[00:19:48]Anyway, you've probably seen the meme.

[00:19:50]It's a good meme. It says it all.

[00:19:54]I think that's all I have to say about the problem. But it's a good problem.

[00:19:57]And if I get enough followers, I might do a poll. And there are variations of this problem that are popping up, like one where you can push another button or one where there's a green button that does something or whatever. Another cool thing to think about with this problem is to imagine a smaller setting. Imagine your friend group has to do this. Let's say you're in a friend group of seven people and you all get exiled away. Have a really honest because this is more this is less theoretical now. This actually is more likely to happen. Uh they're still both highly theoretical, but yeah. But imagine you and your closest friends, seven of you, get whisked away and ask this question. Now, what do you do?

[00:20:36]Because now both feel more loaded. Even though there's less deaths, there's more deaths that you care about. Do you trust three out of seven of your other mates to pick blue with you?

[00:20:46]Or do you think we're all going to pick red? That's the other thing, right? If everyone presses red, no one dies.

[00:20:52]That's more relevant here because these are all intelligent people unless you're friends with like four-year-olds, right?

[00:20:57]They might all actually just know to pick red as a group and everyone no one dies. But this kid won't understand that concept. And that's why this guy has to save him.

[00:21:08]Think about it. I I live in a flat with three people. There's there's three of us. So for me, it would just come down to do I think one of those two are going to press blue with me.

[00:21:17]I think they would.

[00:21:19]When there's three people, picking blue is really noble, I think, because if you're in a three person group and you pick blue, the other two people can't die because either they both picked red and they survive. They picked one of each, in which case blue wins, so no one dies, or they both picked blue, and no one dies. So, in a three player setting, if you pick pick blue, you're basically saying you're both confirmed safe, but I might not be.

[00:21:49]And that is all I have to say. So, thank you for watching. Cheers, guys.