BREAKING: Strait of Hormuz is ALREADY Closed Again

Ajouté : 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, Tim Miller from The Bull Work here. Well, that was fast. The straight of Hormuz is closed again. I'm taping this on Saturday morning.

[00:00:09]Obviously, this is all a developing situation. Uh but it looks like we're headed into a kind of Wayne's World style war on war off uh situation. And uh I I don't think really anybody should be surprised. saying when I was talking to Ben Rhodess about this yesterday. Uh, you know, there were two things that we flagged about how what makes this situation not that stable. Uh, the first was like Trump is not reliable. You can't trust what he's saying is actually what is in the deal. The counterparty Iran isn't particularly reliable. And then you also have our partner in the war, Israel, whose strategic aims are misaligned. um that has not come to the to a head this morning, but my guess is that it will at some point in the near future where Israel decides that they need to continue uh engaging in a battle, whether it be against Hezbollah and Lebanon or somewhere else. So, uh I want to walk through what we know right now this morning. U top headline here is that the straight of Hormuz is closed again. So, that's where we're at. Donald Trump has spoken about that. Uh we're going to play a little bit of that in a bit. Uh, but here are some of the logistics from FARS, Iran's like basically state news agency. It's like maybe one tick more state media than Fox. They first reported the closure.

[00:01:27]Um, uh, they cited that the Iranians are upset about the ongoing blockade from the United States, saying that the United States continues to engage in banditry and maritime piracy. It's a quote from the Iranian side. and they said this. As long as the United States does not agree to the complete freedom of navigation for vessels, the situation in the straight of four moves will remain tightly controlled and in its previous state, US command said 23 ships uh had been turned around because of our blockade earlier this week. Um uh in addition to that dispute, you know, over, you know, which blockade counts, over who's going to let ships through and who's going to send them back, which is, you know, a pretty key item. Um uh we also have reports that Iran was firing on ships in the straight of form this morning. a US defense official and the United Kingdom uh maritime trade official uh told Axius uh that there have been at least three attacks on commercial ships um so far on Saturday um uh the UK MTO had reported two attacks so at least a couple of them at least one ship was hit and would caused some damage there are some audio recordings uh that Axios has listened to that that indicate this at least one of the ships was given clearance Enter the straight then was fired upon prompting the dispatcher to say they are turning around.

[00:02:53]>> Sea navy sepa navy this is motoran you gave me clearance to go my name second on your list you gave me clearance to go YOU ARE FIRING NOW LET ME TURN back >> two of the ships fired upon were Indian vessels um uh carrying a couple million barrels of Iraqi oil. So uh that is from Donica Feifer and Barack Ridet over at Axius. So, I I I want to run through, you know, a couple of uh my bookmarks.

[00:03:21]I've been bookmarking tweets all morning trying to figure out um what is happening. Um uh this is kind of a good timeline breakdown from the uh Kobe letter. Uh yesterday, uh it's being Friday, 8:45 a.m. Iran's foreign minister announced the straight of Hormuz was completely open for all commercial vessels. 9:06, President Trump thanked Iran for opening the straight. Then at 10, Trump and Iran said the US working together to remove all mines um to from the strait. Uh then Trump uh between 10:40 and noon said Iran agreed to never close the straight again. That was the president's announcement yes like less than 24 hours ago. Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the straight again. The straight is closed right now.

[00:04:07]So I his claim was eternity free seas for eternity.

[00:04:14]17 hours later Iran is firing on ships of the straight hormuz and saying that it's closed again. So a little off base on that prediction and commitment from the president. later uh yesterday evening, Friday evening, uh that Iran uh speaker of the parliament said Trump had made a bunch of claims that were false. And then uh the following morning here, Saturday morning, we have the straight being closed again. So that's the state of play behind the scenes. You're seeing that Trump's strategy of just like making a bunch of claims and hoping that they come to fruition. And you know, he was a big friend and the advocate of the author of the uh the power of positive thinking. I that Trump does do that sometimes. He'll just be like, "Hey, this is going to happen." And and hope that he can will it into existence because he sees himself as kind of a demigod. And um you know, that isn't really working on on the Iranian side uh because they have specific needs. Uh, another thing that's interesting, I've seen some scuttlebutt about this, you know, and we'll be, you know, bringing in, um, I know obviously always on Sunday, we have the Bill Crystal Live, we'll bring in General Hurtling and other Iran experts, um, to kind of weigh in on this. uh but uh just just some scuttlebutt out there is that you know there's some view on the Iranian side that um that the power struggle is still ongoing and that this foreign minister uh has been more of let's say the deli Rodriguez style type person of Iran willing to work with America and the IRGC and some of the military elements and the hardliners in Iran are exerting more control and So like there's some scuttlebutt that it's hard to even know like if the negotiations are with the people that will actually end up being in power. Um, so makes it hard to make grand claims like Iran agreed to open the straight forever uh when you know you've got some um hardline thugs from the military uh uh who might decide that this is their moment to seize even more power uh within the regime. So that's something to keep an eye on. Dan Shapiro, who I like to turn to, he is Biden's ambassador to Israel.

[00:06:38]very middle-of the road guy on analyzing what is happening u in the Middle East.

[00:06:44]Uh he posted this Trump spent all day posting things on truth social that had not been agreed to trying to will them to be true by saying them publicly. This is a crazy way to do diplomacy on something this consequential and it has to be telling the Iranians that he's desperate for an offramp which only increases their leverage. I think that's exactly right. The Iranians look at this, they look at Trump advance and say, "These guys want out." And so we're we want to get more money. We want to get a higher toll on the strait. Uh we want more sanctions relief. Uh you know, they're going into the next negotiation, which is supposed to be Sunday, and now they're saying they don't have a day for it. Um in a weaker and weaker position.

[00:07:23]Um let's see here. uh Rory Johnson um an analyst I wanted to flag this oil market researcher uh who's been talking about uh who's been a really good follow on just uh getting through the fog of what is actually happening in um the movement of of uh oil and other energy uh through the strait through other uh parts of Persian Gulf like down around Yemen u and how that is impacting the market. uh he points out this is the most attack on ships in the straight of Hormuse since the early days of the war. It's like we're really you know kind of back in on it here. One other thing that has happened shows I think that there are concerns um in the White House about this. There was a little noticed uh late night Friday update from the administration announcing that they're lifting sanctions on the Russian oil for another month. It was just two days ago or three days ago now that Scott Bessant said that the US would not renew that waiver. They'd put this waiver. They'd released some sanctions on Russian oil to, you know, help um calm the markets when the straight was originally closed.

[00:08:37]Well, late Friday night, they said they're extending that another month. So that can either be read as a favor for Russia, just another favor from Russia from a Russile president, or um as a sign that they're not as confident as they're claiming that this straight of horm is uh situation is going to be resolved or maybe a little bit from uh bucket A and a little bit from bucket B. I think that's probably the answer. Just one more from Gregory Brew, another oil analyst have been following. He's talking about how really and this is going back even more than this morning. There's been total chaos in the straight over the last 24 hours.

[00:09:12]There are dozens of trap ships trying to transit only to reverse course. Um, five tankers have made it through today with Iranian position, but but permission rather, but more were turned around. Um, I already mentioned the Indian tanker that was attacked. Straight is still under Iranian control. So, it is, you know, not at all what Donald Trump was pitching yesterday, which should not be a surprise since that's him. He's a hustster and a liar. Um here he is this morning. Um uh he had a big announcement in the Oval Office with Joe Rogan uh about um trying to uh Joe Rogan is passionate about the use of psychedelics for treatment for people that have addictions to opioids or PTSD and um trying to you know uh uh get those through the approval process. Uh Trump had an executive order press conference about that this morning where he had little Joe Rogan right behind him. It was interesting. Joe Rogan had just called all these MAGA guys like dweebs and losers and not that smart a couple weeks ago and there he is in the Oval Office hanging out with the losers. Um but uh at the during that uh announcement, Trump did address the situation in Iran briefly. Um let's take a look at that. We'll be talking about Iran later. We have uh very good conversations going on. It's uh it's working out very well. They got a little cute as they have been doing for 47 years. Nobody ever took them on. We took them on. They have no navy. They have no air force. They have no leaders. They have no nothing. Actually, their leaders are it is regime change. You call that enforced regime change. But we're talking to them. They wanted to close up the straight again, you know, as they've been doing for years. They can't blackmail us. In fact, a lot of the ships are coming up to Texas. I don't know if you know in Louisiana, the ships are coming up. They got used to it.

[00:11:13]Maybe they'll keep doing it. It's worked out pretty good, but um it's going actually along very well and we'll see.

[00:11:21]But we'll have some information by the end of the day. We're talking to them and you know, we're taking a tough stand. They've killed a lot of people. A lot of our people have been killed. A lot of your fellow soldiers have been killed over the years by Iran.

[00:11:34]>> So you have there uh Trump saying that they got a little cute. Think firing on ships is more than a little cute. Um he talks about how they're talking that the Iranians were talking about closing the straight again, which they have been for years. That's not true. Not true. State of Hormuz had not been closed for years.

[00:11:50]There had not been lots of examples of this during the previous administrations. Um, this is something that just happened this time because Donald Trump started a war of choice and didn't think about the consequences.

[00:12:03]So, um, that was the spin that he's got.

[00:12:08]He says that they'll be out more later today. Um, so obviously we'll be keeping our eyes on that, but I think it was noteworthy that Trump, who likes to answer questions, likes to vamp in these settings, likes to show off his shiny toy, in this case Joe Rogan. Um when things came to a close and there were journalists who wanted to ask more questions about the situation in the straight uh here's what happened then.

[00:12:32]>> Got to shut this one down. Got to shut this one down. Um not good news coming out of the White House and we'll continue to see um what happens. I think obviously that Trump will consider continue to offer more and more concessions in the hope that um you know the straight can get reopened. Um but you know the the situation is a lot diceier than it was made to seem um 24 hours ago or even 12 hours ago. So uh we will keep on that uh for you. Uh subscribe to the feed. We're going to 2 million. Going to the moon. We're going to 2 million subscribers. We really appreciate it. Tell your friends and um I'll be talking to you soon.