Bitcoin Bear Goggles

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse.

[00:00:04]Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing looking at the market with bear goggles on. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

[00:00:24]One of the things that can be difficult in a market is when the market goes against you in the short term. And it's even more difficult because it's sometimes hard to know if it is just a short-term move or if it's the real deal. Last year, I said that Bitcoin was entering a bare market. This was about five or six months ago. And one of the things that I mentioned was that it it made sense to just keep the bear goggles on at least for, you know, the first half of 2026, but obviously I I've mentioned October many many times. And so one of the things I I try to do when we are in rallies like the one we're in right now is to ask myself is what is happening right now is it that different from what we've previously seen in other bare markets or are there differences?

[00:01:25]And if I can find differences, then maybe I should take the bear goggles off. Or if it still looks the same, then you could still justify why having the bear goggles on has made sense for the last several months. Now, let's talk a little bit about the bare market rallies. One of the things that I said going into the bare market, this was back in um you know, late last year, is I said I wasn't even going to try to time any of the counter trend rallies, right? I wasn't even going to try to time them, but I would talk about them as to when lows in the market would likely occur. And one of the ones that I said was I said we'd likely would have a low in February and then another low in April. I said it could be a higher low, but technically speaking, the low I believe occurred in late March. So technically speaking, that was that view was wrong because the low actually occurred like the last day of March or the second to last day of March rather than early April. And then also it wasn't even a a lower low. And you know, I thought there was a decent chance it could be a lower low. So, it goes to show you why it's so difficult to know exactly when the counter trend rallies are going to occur. And when I try, you know, I and I get it wrong, everyone just hates me for like the next 3 months. So, that's essentially where we are right now. But what I want to do is talk a little bit about how bare markets have played out in the past and, you know, is there a reason to take the bear goggles off or or is there not? Obviously, one main difference about this bare market compared to the bare markets of prior midterm years is that Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. We had a euphoric 2013 top. We had a euphoric 2017 top and a euphoric 2021 top. And so, you could say that maybe the bare market characterized after a non-uporic top would be different. And I I would agree with that in some ways and that's one of the reasons why we've also made the comparison to the 2019 bare market. Now, some people might say, well, why would you call it a nonuporic top when Bitcoin still went to all-time highs? Yes, it didn't go up as much as it normally does, but we already would have expected that with diminishing returns. Okay, so what I would say is this.

[00:03:59]When you look at the social interest of crypto this past cycle, it essentially remained relatively low.

[00:04:07]Okay? So, if you look at YouTube views to a lot of the different crypto YouTube channels, you can see that views never really came back. And it's not just YouTube, it's it's on Twitter as well.

[00:04:18]And if you look at followers to various analysts on Twitter, you know, that also had pretty big spikes previously, but then this past cycle, retail never really came back. So that is the argument for why it was a more apathetic top. And then the other clear argument for a more apathetic top was there was no rotation into higher risk assets like altcoins. You can see that Bitcoin dominance has just continued to go up and and recently it's been moving up again. And again, when you exclude stable coins, Bitcoin dominance is at almost a new cycle high. It's not quite there yet, but it is it is getting really close to a new cycle high. So again, altcoins never really stopped bleeding to Bitcoin despite Bitcoin finding that top in late 2025. So, what I want to talk about now is with the move by Bitcoin, is it doing anything different than what we've previously seen? Is it in some ways? Yes. In other ways, no. One of the things that you could look at would be the year-to-ate ROI of Bitcoin in midterm years. So, if we look at the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin in midterm years and look at 2026, and if you compare that to the average of prior midterm years, we're clearly trending above the average, right? So, on average, Bitcoin is down about 30 to 35% from the yearly open at this point in the midterm year, but right now, it's only down about 10% from the yearly open. Now, if you overlay one standard deviation onto that chart, you can see we're kind of outside of that one standard deviation band. So, clearly there's something a little bit different by it because it's continued to stay as elevated as it has. If you look at individual years, 2014, you can see we had sort of the weakness at the same time. Then there was another period of weakness going into April and then we rallied back up to basically where we are now. But just it was a month or two from now when we achieved it. So it's not like we haven't seen Bitcoin rise back up to year you know to 10% below the yearly open before. You can see that actually happened in in 2014 as well. So in that case it's not different. It it is as a function of time but not necessarily in terms of the overall return. In 2018, Bitcoin had a low in February and then a higher low in April and then it ended up topping out in early May. I mean, it essentially topped around this time uh give or take a day or two, right? Like in in 2018, you'll see some similarities. There are differences though, right? You had a low in February and then a higher low in April. you have a sort of a low in February and then a higher low in late March and then Bitcoin basically rallied for like five weeks straight and then formed a lower high in early May. And you could argue potentially that's where we are right now. But one of the differences with this with 2026 and 2018 is that the high in March was higher than the high in in May. Whereas this time the high in March is lower than the high in May. So again, there are similarities, but there's also differences. What's similar is when Bitcoin found the top, right? It found a top in March and then it found a top in May. And in in the lows, it found a low in February and then it found a low in in April and then it also found a low in sort of like late June, early early July. In 2014, the lows were February and April and then October. So, we sort of skipped a summer low. In fact, the summer ended up forming that lower high.

[00:08:17]So, that year-to- date ROI that we showed with Bitcoin in 2026 compared to 2014. You see this high right here? That was essentially the high that Bitcoin formed in June after rallying several weeks off of that lower low in in April.

[00:08:36]And then I look at some of the moving averages and right. All right. Has Bitcoin ever gone above the bare market resistance band or bull market support band in a bare market? Has that ever happened? Because it is right now, right? Like it is above it right now.

[00:08:49]Has that happened before? It has, right?

[00:08:51]Like it happened in 2022. It also happened in 2019 and early 2020. It also happened in 2018 a couple of times and of course it happened in 2014. And when it happened in 2014, what actually happened is it rallied for a couple of weeks, came back and then stayed above it for a couple of months in fact before then going down into the October low. All right. And there are certainly some similarities with this move, right? the 2014 move how you basically just go straight up above the bull market support band and then at some point you likely test it and and then you can see it bounced and then eventually gave up and then still went into the October low and even that wasn't even the low for the market. So then now where are we right like Bitcoin is above the bare market resistance band. So now arguably the bull market support band where might it come back down to retest it because in 2014 it did come back down to retest it and it bounced eventually it gave it up. In 2019, you can see that Bitcoin um got above it and then it retested it a following week, rallied again, and then it came back down. What was the in like what was it that Bitcoin was running up against that caused it to then go back down to the bull market support band?

[00:10:18]Well, if you switch over to the daily time frame, and we're going to remove the bull market support band for a second. If you look at the 200 day moving average, right, the 200 day moving average is something that I've I've talked about a lot in the past, how often times Bitcoin likes to check in with that 200 day moving average in a bare market. You can see that it happened in 2022. It also happened in 2018. And in fact, in 2018, there were times we got above the 200 day moving average, but the 200 day moving average was a a spot of interest, right? Also in 2019, we got above it in 2020, still had the recession. And then in 2014, you can see we went all the way up to the uh to that 200 day moving average around kind of the same time period going into the summer essentially.

[00:11:02]And so when you zoom in to 2014 and you see the rally that Bitcoin had off of the April low, it rallied into the 200 day moving average, held there for about a week and then came back down to the bull market support band and tested it and it actually tested it um in in mid June.

[00:11:28]But you can see how Bitcoin rallied up from the low in April all the way up here to the 200 day moving average. So it went past the bull market support band, came back down, tested it, went back up, got rejected again, and then came back down and then it formed the low in October, which is what I've said is a likely outcome for a low in the market.

[00:11:56]October Okay. So then we look at another example in 2018 and you can see that Bitcoin rallied up to that 200 day moving average. It didn't quite make it around this time.

[00:12:12]Like it it got it was early May. You can see that it got pretty close but it didn't quite make it. Um back then Bitcoin hit a high of 9949 and the bull market support or the 200 day moving average was a little over 10K. So it got close but not quite.

[00:12:30]Another example is later on in 2018. You can see that we rallied through the bull market support band, got close to the 200 day moving average, came back down, tested it, back up, and then backed out.

[00:12:45]And then if you go to 2019 probably my you know another example that I I like to talk about um Bitcoin and and one of the reasons to compare it is if you look at the current rally with the one in 2019 very similar draw down 53% draw down and then just sort of a slow rally right like slow rally it leads people that are are you know bearish to capitulate and the market just keeps on trending. ending up like day after day after day until you know you give it a reason to actually go down. Of course, we got a reason back then. Um, but in that move, right, in this move, Bitcoin rallied past the bull market support band. So, arguably, if you want to compare where we currently are to the 2019 move, like if you if you're looking at this, we're essentially right here, right? where we're like we've rallied through the bull market support band.

[00:13:47]We're not quite to the 200 day moving average, but then after getting to the 200 day moving average, we ended up going back down and testing the bull market support band before then rallying back up that time to a higher high and then the market collapsed. Now, of course, that was due to a recession and I'm not trying to talk about, you know, a pandemic induced recession, but the pattern is this, right? The pattern is you go up either to the 200 day kind of right around it, sometimes a little above it, sometimes a little below it.

[00:14:15]You pull back to the bull market support band and then you get a bounce.

[00:14:21]2019 it was a higher high.

[00:14:25]2018 it was a lower high.

[00:14:33]2014 it was. So you went to the 200 day, came back down, bounced to a lower high down into October.

[00:14:44]So look, you know, I I don't know exactly how it's going to play out. I don't have a crystal ball. I wish I did, but I don't. We talked about bare markets have bare market rallies. You know, should I take the bare goggles off and see the see the see it in a different way? Maybe. But as of right now, it it's not like I it's not like what Bitcoin is doing right now is different than what it's done in prior bare markets. The problem with the this view is if I'm right, it will seem so obvious, right? If I'm wrong, then by the time you do something that's different enough, you're already well off the lows, right?

[00:15:26]Like you're already well off the lows.

[00:15:28]That's why I still think there is a decent chance that later this year, Bitcoin will go back down. Um, and and that yes, we are experiencing a rally that's lasting a while. But again, when you think about and I've seen people say that this one is is very different than prior rallies. But if you think about it, in 2018, Bitcoin set a low in February. the next low didn't occur until like very late June, early July.

[00:16:02]So, it's not really that different in terms of the the length of time that the rally is resting lasting. I think some people are basically saying, "All right, well, the the rally is this entire move and they're ignoring that drop right there. But if you're going to ignore that drop right there in 2018 or in 2026, then why not ignore it in 2018, right? because a lot of people will look at at this rally as different, but that was because it was a lower high, but you still had a pretty big draw down that led into that late March, early April low back then.

[00:16:34]That I think is the reason why people don't include it in in into that um into that rally. But again, Bitcoin set a low in February and then the next low wasn't set until June. In 2014, Bitcoin set a low in April and the next low wasn't until October. So, in terms of time between lows, I have to ask myself, have we gone this long without a new low? In 2014, we went about 174 days. And then the next one after that was about 102 days. In 2018, we went around 143 days. And then after that, the next low to really be set, well, I guess until we took out that low um was around 147 days. So, I guess it depends on how you measure it. But even in this case, like in in terms of how long did it take to just take out the low, it took about half a year, right?

[00:17:29]Just to take out the low that was set in 2018. How long did it take to take out the February low? It took 140 days. How long did it take out? How long did it take to take out that low? Another 140 days.

[00:17:49]In 2022, how long did it take to take out the June low?

[00:17:54]140 something days. How long has it taken, right? How long has it taken since the February low?

[00:18:01]We're currently on day 88. So, who's to know what'll happen in 3 months, right?

[00:18:09]Who's to know? I mean, there's certainly a chance that that Bitcoin will find a new low later this year, just like it did in in prior bare markets. You can have rallies that last for months that that draw people back in that that make them FOMO back in, but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's any different from other bare markets that we've seen. And so, you know, I I see that I am getting a lot of hate obviously on Twitter and I'm not I'm not unsympathetic to those people, right? I mean, but the reality is as well is that Bitcoin is still down a lot from the all-time highs. And anyone who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 when everyone else was screaming 300K is still doing fine. And look, I'm still focusing on the areas that remain bullish to me, and that has been obviously the energy sector, commodities, like metals, a lot of international funds, those things have been doing pretty well. Um, so I guess that's how you could argue that I sort of cope during times like this. It's not that I don't have investments, it's just that I have them in things mostly different than Bitcoin. Um, so those are my views.

[00:19:25]though. That's why I still have the bear goggles on. And as I said before, you know, I'm about to have my fifth child here like literally any day. And so I I don't want people to get the impression that I'm just like ignoring the market because I'm not like I I just have other things going on. So those are my views.

[00:19:45]If you don't agree with them, that's fine, right? I don't I don't really care if if you don't agree with them. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. It's only a matter of time before I will be wrong again about something. But for now, those are my views. I I think this will likely yield a rally that finds a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down to those levels. And you know, as far as how high could we go, I have no idea. I have no idea. Sometimes we go to the 200 day moving average. Sometimes we don't quite make it there. In 2019, we almost took out the prior high, right? I mean, that would be all the way back up there. But I don't know, like I don't know exactly how high the market will go before turning around. But as I went into this year, what I did say was that it's a bare market. There's going to be counterturn rallies. Don't try to time them. Focus on where the bull market is.

[00:20:41]The bull market has been in stocks.

[00:20:43]Those continue to put in new highs. The bull market has been in metals. While they haven't put any new all-time highs uh in a few months, they are Bitcoin is still underperforming them for the most part and and the energy sector and in some of the manufacturing sector. So, that's what I'm going to be focusing on.

[00:20:58]I'm not trying to ignore you guys. I just we have a fifth baby about to be born. Those are my views. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I will own it. Uh and obviously, like I've already been wrong about some things, right? I thought that Bitcoin would form a more obvious low in April, but it really technically occurred in late March. Okay. Um, so even if I wanted to hide behind, oh, well, I said it could be a higher low like 2018. Well, in 2018, it occurred in in April, which is when I thought it was going to occur, but in fact, it occurred on March 29th, right? So, technically that was wrong. You had the low in February and then the higher low was in late March, which I think is what has led to a lot of the uh a lot of the hate. But anyways, we'll wrap it up there. Thank you guys for tuning in.

[00:21:47]Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and I'll see you guys next time. Bye.