Are The Bears Back In Town?

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]The market is finally having some sort of pullback. It looks like right now we are underneath the 10-period EMA, which is the indicator of the short-term trend. Now, as a professional investor, I keep my eye on the 10, 20, and 50 EMAs. And right now, I can see that the market might be giving up the short-term 10 EMA trend. Now, there's a couple reasons why, and we're going to go through our outlook outlook for the day, and we're going to be looking for our threats to our positions as well as new opportunities that we could be putting on. So, what are some I some things that are going on? The S&P's cumulative advance-decline line made a new high in the last month, but it's been trending lower since then, and price has continued higher. During the top dot-com run-up, the advance-decline line actually peaked in April of 1998, and then plummeted as the bubble exploded for the next year and a half. So, prices can disconnect for the advance-decline line, right? And if you think about it, that it's exactly the situation that we've seen lately, which is less and less stocks are holding up the market more and more, which makes me nervous, right? Since the March 30th low, just two sectors, tech and communication, so communication's going to be like Google, uh Meta, and Netflix, and then tech is the big names that you've been following like Nvidia, AMD, etc. have outperformed the S&P's 17.2% gain. So, most of the gain, I think we saw something yesterday that said somewhere around like more than 50% uh of the entire gains for the year have come from just the tech sector, really. Not even tech and communication. So, a lot going on.

[00:01:32]What's going on this morning in the market? We can see overall, pretty quiet day to start the day. Now, the market just opened a little bit ago, but I see a lot of red on the board. I see a lot more red than I do green. Now, how about Mark uh let's go take a look at the market over here inside of Outlier. We have the buy signal still on the market, pushing everything up higher. The market's greed is still super super strong at 83, and then we have the uh 2 seconds here. I just thought of a change in my mic. There you go. Uh, then we have the Qs. The Nasdaq is still continuing to push higher as well with a fresh buy signal. Now, we're looking for threats right now. And one threat that I've continued to keep an eye on is the number of stocks on the, uh, the buy signals that we have versus sell signals, the number of stocks with uptrends versus downtrends. This continues to push down. This is not a big beautiful broad market, uh, rally that we're seeing. It's very concentrated. But couple of threats that you also need to be aware of is, number one, Trump says he's called off the Iran strike plan for Tuesday at the request of Gulf allies. Now, we've seen a whole lot of back and forth in the last few weeks with, uh, Iran. So, who actually knows what's going to happen? But at least this is what's on the table today.

[00:02:39]That could be good for energy stocks and oil prices, uh, maybe coming back down.

[00:02:43]Then another threat, Russia holds massive drills of its nuclear forces as Ukraine steps up its drone attacks. Now, I don't want to get into, uh, politic politics or anything, but you do need to be aware that this is still going on.

[00:02:57]And then lastly, Samsung workers are rallying in South Korea demanding higher pay and threatening to strike. This absolutely could have an impact on the tech sector. Let's go look at the tech sector real quick. XLK.

[00:03:09]Yeah, similar to the spy, which would make a lot of sense because this happens to be what's been growing the spy as much as it has. Do see a little bit of weakness right here. Do see a little bit of weakness. So, this could ripple across the entire world. So, news for the day, more threats for the day. We have, uh, pending home sales. Uh, they come out in about 5 minutes. You also got API weekly statistical bulletin and you have FOMC member, uh, Paulson is speaking later today. So, just be aware that those could have an impact to your portfolio. Uh, now let's go look at the sell signals for the day. Some big names coming through on the sell signals like, uh, Wolf Terra Wolf has a sell signal today. Now, this stock has been in a big run lately as well with the buy signal coming from April 10th to the sell signal today. Uh, Bitcoin miners got in the way. Hang on, I want to read the story real quick. Bitcoin miners that have got into AI have soaring stocks.

[00:03:58]These experts could see more gains ahead. TeraWulf soars to new four-year high driven by AI. TeraWulf um losses wider than expected. So, I mean, there's there's definitely been a little bit of change in consensus right here.

[00:04:13]This is the new sentiment. Overall, it looks more bullish than bearish, but we do have that sell signal here. So, if you are in TeraWulf, now may be a great day to take your profits.

[00:04:23]Next, we got Robinhood. Robinhood, the future of finance, right, bro? Sitting on a fresh sell signal today. It's getting more fearful. The whole sector, the whole financial sector is getting more fearful as well. I mean, this is a three of nine on the Outlier Nine scale.

[00:04:37]So, definitely a great time to be getting out of Robinhood if you're already in it. And then lastly, Google's had this huge big big big big run, but a sell signal just came through yesterday.

[00:04:46]So, if you are in Google and you had all those big beautiful juicy profits, I took some profits earlier this year. I should say earlier this month on Google.

[00:04:54]Now is a great time to get out of the way. And now we've got earnings on the board, right? What are some threats coming from earnings? Well, first, right, you've got Target.

[00:05:02]You've got Target, you've got Walmart, and you've got Lowe's, three consumer stocks that you might want to be aware of. Target, sitting on sell signal, has been getting monkey-hammered really in the last few weeks.

[00:05:14]Pushing down now into a bearish trend as it's getting this bigger and bigger and bigger sell-off and bigger and bigger drop in the greed score. So, Target's not one that I definitely wouldn't be investing in right now. How about Lowe's? Yeah, Lowe's, similar story.

[00:05:27]Been selling off for a hot minute here.

[00:05:29]This is not one that I would be interested in at all. And then lastly, Nvidia.

[00:05:33]Nvidia has the big earnings on Wednesday. The whole market is going to move based on what Nvidia does. Nvidia's 8% of the S&P 500, and um >> S&P 500 is market cap weighted. So, whatever Nvidia does, the whole market is going to feel. So, just be aware of that with a fresh new buy signal right here, by the way. All right. And also, TSM has a sell signal in place right here. Taiwan Semiconductor. This is a stock that um Taiwan Semiconductor is a stock that is absolutely been benefiting from these big moves up in the tech sector lately.

[00:06:07]And then you've got Hims. Hims is looking awful, right? I know a lot of people really like Hims. It's very a tradeable, but it's been sitting on a sell signal for a while and continuing to drift down. Then you've got Onto.

[00:06:18]What is Onto? This one came through my my list this morning. Onto Innovation Inc. Uh still also sitting on a sell signal getting worse and worse and worse. And do you see a pattern here? Do you see a pattern, right? We're seeing more and more sell signals and that's reflective in market breadth and you need to be able to know where to get in and where to get out. That's where Outlier comes into play. Now, let's look at new opportunities for the day. We already talked about our threats. What about our new opportunities? How about some new buy signals, right? Let's go look for some new buy signals for the day.

[00:06:45]Um in fact, let me change this to buy and let's hit uh apply filter and let's see what pulls through.

[00:06:54]So, I like to sort by market cap so we can talk about the biggest stocks out there.

[00:06:58]And Exxon Mobil. Exxon Mobil is the first one that pops up here. So, Exxon Mobil is looking really really sharp.

[00:07:05]Let's go take a look at it. Yeah, this is definitely benefiting from the short or news, unfortunately. You know, it's everybody's got to deal with it, but oil stocks and we'll be talking about more oil stocks here in just a minute.

[00:07:15]They've really been benefiting and look at this, seven of nine, the sector is getting more greedy. The sector breadth looks like it's about to cross. The sector's getting more uptrends and less downtrends. This is exactly what you want to see. So, Exxon Mobil looks really really sharp to me. What about uh something else in the energy sector? How about P10? Actually, no, we're going to hang on to P10. We're coming back to that one in just a minute. I know for a fact we are. Um let's go to ENB.

[00:07:39]This is What stock is this? E N B.

[00:07:44]E N B is Enbridge Inc. Energy.

[00:07:47]So, also in the energy sector, fresh buy signal, getting more greedy, the sector is getting more greedy, and as we talked about just a moment ago, more uptrends, less downtrends. So, this is also one that looks really, really sharp. Let's see if we can find another one in the energy sector.

[00:08:01]Uh A M Antero Midstream.

[00:08:04]Another fresh buy signal for an energy stock here.

[00:08:08]Yeah, fresh as of today, getting more greedy inside of a bullish uptrend.

[00:08:13]Yeah, there's three stocks that might be interesting to you today you can take a look at. Now, what about some large cap gap ups? What are some gap ups this morning that you want to be aware of?

[00:08:21]What about SAP? Let's look at SAP. SAP has been terrible for a long time, and I don't know why it's got a big gap up this morning, but according to Barchart, it had a 4% gap up this morning. Still not one that I would be interested in, even as a new opportunity. How about EXP? Didn't we just talk about No, we didn't talk about EXP. But this had a 4% We talked about E N P or something like that a minute ago. Either way, had a nice gap up this morning, but still sitting on that sell signal inside of a downtrend. So, EXP is not one that I would be interested in. And then lastly, we're looking at Service Now. We talked about Service Now in the show right before this. Has a gap up of 4% this morning, and a fresh buy signal as well.

[00:08:59]A gap up with a fresh buy signal. Now could be a great time for you to take a look at Service Now. Now, I want to shift. This is a new section that I just found yesterday. I'd never seen this before until yesterday, which I was really stoked to see. You can actually break down in Finviz, where we get our heat maps, what stock sectors and and industries are looking the strongest. And when I sorted this by the performance in the last week, what I'm looking for is a change on the day, the month, and the week, and I can see oil and gas drilling have really been going up crazy, and that's some of the stocks we were just talking about. In fact, if we drill down into that sector, you can see the individual charts from here. Isn't this cool? I just found this. I wish I'd known this for years.

[00:09:40]Uh but let's look at a handful of these names inside of Outlier, like RIG, right? That's the chart right there.

[00:09:45]RIG, buy signal, fresh buy signal today, this morning, with the uh uptrend looking sharper. Uh the uptrend's in place, the greed is growing, and then we talked about just a minute ago, the uh the fear and greed on the the uh sector and fear and greed on the breadth. What I'm telling you right now is this sector is on fire. The energy sector is really, really strong right now. What about SOC?

[00:10:07]I saw that one right here. We don't have the Outlier data in here. We cover 9,000 stocks and ETFs. We don't have enough data to generate the buy and sell signals on SOC just yet. But again, this one is also looking really, really sharp. And then the last one from this group I want to look at was P10. See, I told you we'd talk about it. Fresh buy signal today on P10. Similar story on the sector. And um I mean, the greed is really strong on this one already at 80.91.

[00:10:31]Now, last uh last little bit, let's talk about some new headlines that you might find interesting in the news and analyst rating section of Outlier. Just go over to that real quick. And a couple things I thought were interesting. Home Depot earnings anticipated amid rising rates, low expectations. So, we've got earnings coming up, but it's still sitting on the sell signal, and this is not one that I would be interested in at all whatsoever. I would stay away from Home Depot.

[00:10:55]Uh we've got Coreweave. I thought we already had Coreweave inside the system, but not yet just yet, it looks like. Um this one caught my eye. Coreweave stock follows this new Google Cloud venture.

[00:11:05]Right? Coreweave has just entered a new downtrend. That's what that red background represents. And it does have a lot of uh competition coming its direction. And then finally, last one of the day, Meta. We do have uh the headline of Meta uh beginning layoffs. Now, here's one of those ugly gross things is that anytime there are layoffs, that actually has a propensity to boost the price of the stock.

[00:11:27]I don't like it, you don't like it, but it's the truth. And actually, this right here is still sitting on a sell signal and still within a downtrend. So honestly screw those guys, right?

[00:11:37]Anytime that they're laying off 7,000 people, I don't mind seeing a stock look like that. That's the way I think about it. So listen, if this was useful to you, do me a favor and subscribe. And if you're ready to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk, head on over to outlier.com and click one of these two videos and we'll talk soon.