What if Louis Bonaparte became King of the Netherlands?

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Louis Bonapart came to prominence in 1806 when Napoleon decided to install him as the king of Holland, overthrowing the Pavian Republic, the revolutionary state the French had installed decades ago. In Napoleon's mind, installing his family was a surefire way to secure his ever growing control over Europe. While dynastically, Napoleon lacked a son at this time and had even considered adopting Lewis's son as his heir instead.

[00:00:28]But once in power, Louie and Napoleon clashed. Napoleon thought Louie to be a French viceroy, a puppet. But Louie wanted to be a monarch for the Dutch. He opposed Napoleon's demands to cancel French debts to Dutch lenders, something which would have crashed its economy.

[00:00:46]And crucially, he refused to offer forces for French conflicts. Furious, Napoleon pulled his forces from the nation, allowing the British to launch a minor attack on the Dutch. After this, Napoleon argued Louie had failed as a monarch and the Netherlands were directly integrated into France. Louie continually appealed his brother for restoration, but was ignored and soon Napoleon was fully defeated. A new Dutch kingdom was then created under William of Orange.

[00:01:19]But even during a short reign, Louie was rather popular. His willingness to confront Napoleon and his personal concern with the well-being of the people endeared him to the public. He also made a real effort to integrate, declaring himself Dutch, styling himself Loag instead of Louie and trying to learn the language. A famous story alleges that he declared himself Conine von Holland instead of Coning Van Holland, a slip in which he used the Dutch term for rabbit rather than king.

[00:01:52]His efforts were noticed and even decades later he was remembered fondly.

[00:01:58]He requested to visit several times but was denied until 1840. Even then, three decades after his rule, a crowd gathered to cheer him. After the fall of Napoleon, Louieie became quite low-key.

[00:02:13]Once both of his elder brothers had passed, he technically became the head of House Bonapart, but the position interested him little. It did however interest his son Louie Napoleon. He was far more ambitious and attempted several failed coups in France. Finally in 1848 a Republican revolution rocked France and Louie Napoleon got elected president in a landslide. Soon after restoring the empire, becoming Napoleon III and restoring Bonapartism to France.

[00:02:47]Meanwhile, the Kingdom of the Netherlands had a turbulent time. It was a direct creation of the Congress of Vienna, unifying primarily the former Dutch Republic with the Austrian Netherlands into a single state. Its purpose was to be a buffer, ensuring neither Prussia nor France, but mainly France, could mess with the region and upset the balance of power. Aside from the French speakers in the south, most of the new population spoke a dialect of Dutch, and you'd expect them to fit in just fine.

[00:03:20]But much to the contrary, only 15 years later, the South rose up. Initially for reforms and lower taxes, but soon rallying under the flag of what was to become Belgium. The reasons for the revolution were numerous, including discrimination and favoritism for the north, north centric economic policy, and political power laying fully with the Protestant Dutch. The Dutch would fail to contain the revolution and great power arbitration cemented the independence of Belgium.

[00:03:54]This Belgian revolution is where I want to start our alternate history which is going to be a bit of a strange one. What if during this revolution we reintroduce Louis Bonapart and he attempts to use it to reclaim his throne? Now, as a disclaimer, I don't think Louisie ever had a realistic shot at this, but 1830 would be the best time for him to try.

[00:04:19]The only real alternative would be 1815 with the great powers appointing him king. But it should be self-evident why they never would. Voluntarily installing a bonapart would needlessly legitimize one of Napoleon's conquests and in a worst case even puts them right on the French border ready to take advantage of Bonapart's sentiment there.

[00:04:43]Of course, even this Belgium revolution would be a massive long shot. First, even 15 years later, this would greatly worry the European great powers and especially the autocratic eastern powers. Beyond that, the Belgians themselves didn't seem all too interested in a scheme that included overthrowing the Dutch king and reunifying the state. So even if Louie gets a foot in the door, becoming king of Belgium would be more realistic if anything.

[00:05:14]But realism aside, what if it happened anyway? Louie would need to act completely differently after deposition, making his intentions for restoration well-known, making friends and influencing people, and even just physically being in Belgium during or soon after the revolution could help.

[00:05:34]Essentially, take a similarly proactive stance as his son would later do in France. Of course, even if a crowd proclaims him king, he'd have the tough job of convincing all the revolutionaries. and then also convincing the Dutch to accept his reign as well. And of course, the great powers are unlikely to ever let this be. So before we assume his unlikely success, let's first swiftly wonder the far more likely case in which he fails. I'm sorry for the quick intermission, but by far most of you aren't subscribed. To keep up to date with all latest releases, consider doing so. Thank you.

[00:06:14]As the Belgian revolution gains steam, the Dutch army is forced in the retreat.

[00:06:19]Louie on a chance visit to the region gets proclaimed king, mirroring the French Revolution. That same year, Louise starts explicitly building his rule on the basis of liberalism and constitutionalism, causing even support in the north to rise from those opposed to the autocratic rule of William. But despite favorable conditions on the ground for Louie, Britain soon calls a great power conference to discuss the crisis.

[00:06:48]In our timeline, the great powers had to debate whether to accept Belgium independence or insist a return to Dutch rule. Here it is more complicated. Louie claims the entire nation, meaning this is more of a civil war than an independence war in which not Belgium or no Belgium, but autocracy or liberalism is the key deciding factor. That leads me to consider three outcomes of this conference. The first may well be a compromise with especially Britain and France motioning that they could support Belgian independence but not a bonapartist takeover of the entire state and they could well condition this support on replacing Louie as a monarch.

[00:07:36]Should the Belgians accept, we'd mostly return to our timeline.

[00:07:40]The second option is the least likely by far. But while never taken seriously, there were some considerations of partitioning the region. This map itself was unlikely to be implemented, not in the least because Britain had no interest in being tied to the continent.

[00:07:58]But the concept of partition could come up a bit more seriously in this timeline. After all, the Dutch monarchy proved itself unstable, and stripping away some of the more rebellious regions might just help its stability. Of course, the main issue is that only France and Prussia stand to gain, likely leaving the other three powers opposed.

[00:08:22]Then the most likely option is that the great powers could simply back the Dutch king. Louie had turned independence war into full revolution, which discredited the entire movement and left the autocratic powers of Europe far more hostile.

[00:08:38]French and Prussian forces are sanctioned to crack down upon the Belgians. This would basically transpose us into a scenario wherein the Belgian revolution failed with major potentials for the future of Europe.

[00:08:52]Of course, this would require the Dutch to stabilize enough that the 1848 revolutionary wave doesn't see a second, but this time successful Belgian revolution. Anyways, while all of this is interesting, I think it deserves its own video one day. One side note unique to this version though is that the boner parts might be a bit more discredited from this affair. I think it is unlikely, but this could prevent Napoleon III from rising, the effects of which I will explore soon.

[00:09:26]So, for now, back to the scenario at hand. Louie successfully paints himself a reformer and unifier, offering Belgians a reason for continued union while offering the Dutch liberalism.

[00:09:39]This pretty much means significant liberal reforms. Think about equality between Catholics and Protestants, French as a co-equal language in the state, and potentially federalism.

[00:09:50]Again, such promises mean he is leading a liberal revolution, not just a monarchical coup, and would leave the autocratic powers far more nervous. As Louis sweeps the nation, the great powers meet in London.

[00:10:06]Many would itch for an intervention, and Louis only shot at survival would be disagreements in who, how, and why this could happen, as well as mutual distrust.

[00:10:18]Russia already considered intervention historically and Louie might need to offer significant concessions to the French and the British in order to get enough backing for his eventual victory.

[00:10:31]What does greatly aid him is that the Polish revolution that same year ensures Russia's hands are tied. As Louie successfully consolidates his new kingdom, we see significant conditions forced upon him. Most would be related to his status as a Bonapart with explicit renouncements of lingering claims on the French throne, but also restrictions on foreign policy like potentially neutrality or at least not aligning to France too much, as well as respecting the autonomy of Luxembourg, etc. This immediately makes the biggest question of this old hist one which will shape it immensely. How seriously Louie and his descendants take their relinquishment of the French throne.

[00:11:18]Louie himself would absolutely be content as king of the Netherlands. But would his son settle for that? Or would he continue to aim for the former prestigious and powerful position of French emperor? Might Li Napoleon still agitate for bonapartism in France? If so, this would bring quite a great risk to his father's position, embarrassing him internationally.

[00:11:42]Quite possibly Louis Napoleon's ambitions are checked by his newfound position, unable to lead the exciting life of an exiled pretender.

[00:11:53]Also, Louie had another even older son, confusingly named Napoleon Louie.

[00:12:00]Historically, he died of the measles in Italy in 1831.

[00:12:04]But perhaps living in different conditions in the Netherlands, he might survive, meaning Louis Napoleon would not be the crown prince, at least opening up a little bit more to adventurism. Of course, if Napoleon Louie still dies, then it is pretty much unthinkable that the crown prince of the Netherlands has the energy or the time to actively advocate bonapartism in France as well.

[00:12:31]Thus, almost certainly we have blunted bonapartism in France, either from direct pressure from his father or a simple acceptance of his already decent position. Lie Napoleon just doesn't ever seize the French throne. The only unlikely route for this could be Napoleon Louie becoming king of the Netherlands and Louis Napoleon then coming to rule in France separately. But of course, such an intimate linking of France and the Netherlands would terrify the other great powers. And I'd be very surprised if it didn't lead to major action. More plausibly, we have simply removed Napoleon III from French history, sending French politics into an absolute tail spin.

[00:13:16]The 1848 revolutions are thus the next plot point. The Netherlands may be mostly spared, assuming Louie actually followed through on his promises, but it is France which we are actually interested in. They had a Republican revolution that year, which resulted in the previously mentioned landslide for Louie Napoleon as its president. Without him, the revolution still occurs. But then what? The runner up was Luie Eugene Cavanyak, the Republican president. Yet, he would never achieve a similarly massive mandate. Much like we saw under Louie Napoleon historically, the French Republic would then struggle with infighting, disagreements, and deadlock.

[00:14:00]Louie dealt with this by proclaiming himself emperor and destroying the republic. Kavanyak or any other candidate simply doesn't have that option. possibly because of their genuine belief in republicanism, but more importantly because they would simply lack the popularity and legitimacy of a bonapart. The 1852 election would therefore be another key year for the future of France.

[00:14:27]Most likely, French republicanism cementss itself, but in true French fashion, it is internally divided.

[00:14:35]Alternatively, the right-wing may again rally behind an oranist restoration, turning France back into a kingdom yet again. In either of these cases, the most obvious change from our timeline is French foreign policy.

[00:14:51]Seeking to emulate his uncle, Napoleon III was very adventurous. He was a major cause of the Crimean War. He launched an invasion of Mexico. He was instrumental in Italian unification. And it was his declaration that started the Franco-Russian war culminating in German unification.

[00:15:11]Take Italy in 1848. They tried and failed to confront Austria. They decided they needed a foreign benefactor and that would be Napoleon III. Italian unification as we saw it required French military backing and it is no guarantee that this alternate France provides that especially a republican France might just think that the autocratic Piet Monties are unsuitable to lead unification.

[00:15:41]Unification might therefore be delayed, having to wait for another revolutionary wave, and Italy might come to have a more federalist liberal character, while Austria would delay the humiliation that was Italian unification.

[00:15:57]The Cranian War had occurred in no small part because Napoleon attempted to gain the title of defender of Christians in the Ottoman Empire, a title traditionally held by Russia. For Napoleon, defeating the Russians was a partly symbolic goal to avenge his uncle. Undoubtedly, Russia and the Ottomans will still fight at some point, but the character of the war could be totally different, not turning into one of the bigger continental wars of the era, but perhaps simply ending with a mild Russian victory, tampered by great power threats of intervention.

[00:16:34]The invasion of Mexico also almost certainly doesn't occur. Another bit of pointless adventurism by Napoleon. But the conservatives of the nation aligning themselves to the French invaders did allow the Mexican liberals to after the victory finally create a small era of relative peace for the embattled nation.

[00:16:56]In a worst case for Mexico, this may now not happen and they may have a more turbulent time ahead. But perhaps most notably are the German wars of unification.

[00:17:07]One change is that Austria may simply be stronger without their loss of Italy, while Italy was also a historical ally of the Prussians. But beyond that, keeping the French from backing the Austrians was critical for Prussian success. Bismar had outmaneuvered Napoleon by offering concessions he never delivered upon. But would he be able to do the same to a republican or orist France? To a France less concerned with old glory and perhaps more aware of the dangers to the balance of power. It was also Napoleon which got himself baited into declaring war on North Germany, allowing Bismar to incorporate the south too and complete the unification.

[00:17:51]This too is far less likely without the specific dynamics of Napoleon as emperor of France.

[00:17:59]We may therefore see pressure in Europe continue to build rather than swiftly expand itself into Italian and German unification.

[00:18:08]Austria and Prussia remain in deadlock over Germany with constant maneuvers from both sides. Meanwhile, within Austria, the Hungarian question doesn't get resolved by the dual monarchy. As Italian nationalists simply wait for their opportunity to strike, the Russians are eyeing up Constantinople.

[00:18:28]The Prussians are waiting for Austria to blink. And the question is just how much longer balance in Europe can hold. and whether it may perhaps not resolve in the relatively orderly way of our timeline, but in a more impressive collapse of the influence of the Austrian Empire.

[00:18:46]So, safe to say Napoleon III was quite influential and removing him sends European geopolitics into a tail spin.

[00:18:55]Concrete predictions are difficult, but on all levels, I'd expect changes over time with the delays in Italian and German unifications and perhaps the change in the driving forces behind them being the biggest factors. For example, a more liberal federalist Italy could already be way different than the aristocratic monarchy of our timeline.

[00:19:19]Within the scales, then let's conclude by returning to the Netherlands. If Louie succeeds as a ruler, this could be very beneficial to the nation in the long term. The differences between north and south could get smoothed over over time, especially for the Dutch peakers.

[00:19:36]The Bonapartis monarch could get entrenched, which is arguably a better symbol for a unified low countries than the House of Orange, which were deeply rooted in northern Protestant interests and history. It would also mean that Napoleon III could come to rule the Netherlands. And for all his foreign policy flaws, domestically, he was quite an effective ruler. Because the Netherlands simply is weaker than France, this may curtail his more extreme ambitions, and he may well cement himself as an exceptional ruler, leading the way in the further modernization of the middlesized power.

[00:20:15]We could wonder how strong this nation would be. Belgium historically was the second most industrialized nation per capita on earth for much of this era being able to compete with the output of some far larger states. Combined with the Dutch, this state would therefore be quite impressive. But would it throw that weight around? Well, that is unlikely. They are simply squeezed between greater powers and it would be very surprising to see them willingly take major sides in the conflicts of the era. Fundamentally, their position just demands a more defensive character which both the Dutch and the Belgians took up historically.

[00:20:57]In terms of the scramble for Africa, I would be surprised if the Dutch got full control over the Congo like Belgium did.

[00:21:05]But with Belgian industrial demands, it is possible the Dutch do attempt to get their foot in the door on the continent more than historically. But attempting to reason the specifics of what they may or may not get is quite a false errand.

[00:21:20]Most importantly though, and we are now back into deep speculative territory, is that if Europe survives the massive crisis we might see, and we perhaps get something similar to our timeline, which again is very unlikely, then this United Netherlands could continue to fulfill the purpose for which it was envisioned all those decades ago. It would be madness for the Germans to expect to swiftly overrun and bypass the state and reach Paris in time to knock out the French in any swift conflict. This means that if we even see something resembling our geopolitics, great power planning will inherently be altered.

[00:22:02]Any Germany or Prussia couldn't be quite as bellos if they can't expect a swift victory over France. Therefore, we have removed a massive angle in what allowed any great war historically in the first place.

[00:22:19]So, in conclusion, the effects of Louisie reclaiming his throne, however unlikely it may be, are immense. Belgium doesn't exist. The Dutch are far stronger. French politics and great tail spin. And the lack of Napoleon III completely alters the course of European history. The rabbit of Holland may have accidentally offered conditions for either a more violent decline of the European balance of power or a more stable one due to his nation's position as a buffer slate. But from here, the future of Europe is up in the air. And I will leave it up to you. So for now, thank you all for watching. Consider leaving a like and a comment as well as subscribing. If you've enjoyed this video, click the video on top to watch another in this series. If you've already seen it, I'm sure the bottom video is great, too. Once again, thank you all for watching and goodbye.