Turning hotter... and hotter - 19/06/2026 - Weather Studio Live Met Office Forecast

[00:00:35]Hello, welcome along. It's Weather Studio Live Time. It's Friday, it's 12:15. I'm Alex Burkhill.

[00:00:40]>> I'm Adah McGiven. Thank you for joining us. And yes, it's uh well, there's a lot to talk about as always, but especially because of the heat, the extreme heat that is coming our way. It's already been pretty hot across parts of the Southeast this week, and there's more hot weather to come this weekend, but it's early next week. You may well be aware that we have just issued an extreme heat warning for parts of England, even a little part of Wales for Monday and Tuesday. Now, put it into context, we don't issue these very often. Uh the last time we issued one was in back in 2022, obviously the year where we famously got above 40 Celsius for the first time. We've only been issuing extreme heat warnings for a little while since 2021. And since that time, we've only issued three. So this is a pretty exceptional event coming up.

[00:01:26]>> Yeah, three events for extreme heat warnings so far, 2021 and 2022. and they worth bear bearing in mind of course that we don't issue yellow extreme heat warnings unlike the rest of our warnings. So it has to cross a considerable threshold in terms of impacts and these warnings are warnings of impacts. They're not warnings of specific temperature thresholds. There are a lot more factors involved as I'll discuss in a moment at the board when I explain what's going on. a lot more factors involved when considering extreme heat warnings than just the air temperature. There's humidity, there's time of year, there's the um uh leadup that to the event, the the duration of the event, the overnight temperatures.

[00:02:14]So many factors that go into considering what kinds of impacts could we see next week and then the warning is of the for those impacts which are specific to the UK. Of course, we could have similar temperatures in Spain, often do, where there are air conditioned buildings, where people are more used to these kinds of temperatures, where uh the infrastructure is more set up to deal with these kinds of temperatures.

[00:02:39]They've got a bigger uh threshold to cross before they issue heat warnings.

[00:02:44]But there are heat warnings at the moment across Spain, France, much of Europe. So yeah, extreme heat warning in place for next week due to the expected impacts likely.

[00:02:55]>> Yeah, it's going to be hot and humid, not everywhere, but hot and humid across a large chunk of at least the southern part of the UK. Some uncertainties, but Adrian will be going through the details because of the hot weather. We're asking you today, at what point does it get too hot for you? Everyone has their own threshold for it and it goes from being, oh, this is comfortably warm to uh this is unbearably hot. So let us know what temperature it is that you start to say, "Ah, it's a bit too hot now, isn't it?"

[00:03:23]I suppose it depends everyone for everyone on what you're doing.

[00:03:26]>> The context that that's entirely the point is that this extreme heat warning is for the UK where the infrastructure and buildings and so on aren't set up for this kind of heat. It's very different story. if you're experiencing these temperatures in a country where you've got air conditioning to go back to and get some rest bite, you've got a pool to sit around, cocktails to drink, that sort of thing. So, for me, the threshold is wildly different depending on whether I'm in the UK going back and forth to work and trying to get the kids to sleep overnight and all that stuff compared with going on holiday where you've got air conditioning, a pool, and and you don't have to work, you don't have to do much. So yeah, I mean for the UK I'd say my threshold is about 27 28 degrees.

[00:04:13]>> I'd agree. Yeah, high 20s. When you start getting above 30 Celsius, that's when it's it's too hot. I think uh lots of people I think their thresholds a fair bit lower.

[00:04:24]>> Yeah, everyone's different.

[00:04:26]>> Yeah. Yeah. Um we've talked about it in the past, your short threshold, as in when do you start and stop wearing shorts? Uh, and so I was wondering if you were going to rock shorts today, Aiden.

[00:04:38]>> Uh, I was tempted. Yeah, I was tempted.

[00:04:42]But it's not that hot in the office, is it?

[00:04:45]>> It is. Sometimes if we haven't turned the uh air conditioning on in the studio, even on a winter's day, this room can get pretty stuffy. But fortunately, yeah, it's not too hot in the office. And uh, yeah, no shorts today for us, but probably will be next week. Albeit, you probably won't be able to see it because the camera cuts us off. Anyway, we digress.

[00:05:04]Um, so the big talking point is obviously the heat, but do get uh any questions coming in about anything weather related and if you've got any events coming up and you want to know if they're going to be impacted by the heat like Aiden talked about when it comes to our warnings, it's all about the impacts and and that kind of thing. And so factoring in the time of year and what's going on at the moment, uh, that really does get taken into account when we issue them. So, uh, lots of people replying already with the the temperatures that you find bearable. So John J said 18 to 23 Celsius is uh perfect but as we've gone through it depends on the context. Humidity as well makes a huge difference as well. Um oh uh what else have we got? So Christian proto 6405 has asked any chance of severe thunderstorms during the heatwave?

[00:05:53]>> Yes. Yes there is. just distracted by the fact that our graphics machine has frozen and is now being booted, rebooted. Um, so fingers crossed that will come back online. So, we can show you some weather graphics soon. Um, but it's Yeah, it's doing all sorts of funny things out of the corner of our eyes.

[00:06:11]So, >> we might have to go to the quiz straight away. There is going to be Sorry, go on to the thunderstorms. Yes, there's the chance given the amount of heat and humidity that will be building across southern parts of the UK over the next few days. There is certainly the chance that we'll have some whoppers developing. Uh always a chance of a thunderstorm later today and then more especially Sunday and early next week.

[00:06:36]It's too early to give specifics in terms of where we'll be affected because there's a large area of high pressure, a large ridge. Actually, it's not going to be one of those where it's widespread thunderstorms, but one of those where there could be just enough heat and humidity at the surface to trigger an isolated thunderstorm. And you're talking about, you know, temperatures getting into the mid30s before this kind of thing happens. So, very few people will be affected early next week. But if one is triggered, there's that much energy in the atmosphere that you really know about it. torrential rain, large hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and all that sort of thing. So, yes, the the risk of some really severe thunderstorms developing, but for very few people, it has to be said, for the next few days.

[00:07:26]>> One thing that is also incredibly interesting, I think, about this upcoming extreme heat is that it's perfectly in a way, uh, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the 1976 conceptual heat spell that we had uh 50 years ago. Uh you you've been working on this. You've been doing a forecast especially looking ahead to what a future climate could bring if we had some especially hot weather. And also I caught up with one of our climate scientists who helped you uh helped you create that forecast, James Pope. And as part of our climate conversations show which is coming out on Monday, here's a little clip of uh what I got up to when I talked to him. This show sets out on a journey from 1976 to today and on to the summer of 206, 30 years from now. And we'll be asking the simple things. How hot? How long? How often? What does a British heatwave become as our climate continues to warm? At the heart of it is our forecast for 206. A plausible forecast for a summer's day three decades away. built from the most detailed climate models we have and the expertise to analyze them. In a moment, Alex Burkeill will be talking to Dr. James Pope, who led the team that created this future heatwave scenario.

[00:08:48]The forecast is only the beginning.

[00:08:50]Knowing what's coming is one thing.

[00:08:53]Getting ready for it is another. And that is the work scientists like Professor Haley Fowler are doing right now. Turning these projections into the choices that keep us safer.

[00:09:06]Yeah, that was a really interesting uh chat that I had.

[00:09:11]Aiden's in the background. I'm just lurking behind him. We're all good.

[00:09:16]>> This is a new angle. We're going to try it. Let's get rid of the table and let's just have one presenter creeping behind the other. Why not? Um, so bear with us just a second whilst we're fixing a few things. Maybe the heat's causing some problems here. But, uh, yeah, really interesting chat that I had with James Pope. It was uh really worthwhile finding out about what went into this 2056 forecast that he helped compile and Aiden will be sharing what it really looked like in videos that will go out early part of next week. Like we said, it's the 50th anniversary from 1976. If you've not caught up with that ex look back, that evergreen video that Alex Deacon did a couple of weeks ago about the summer of uh 1976, then do check that out as well. We've had a few questions coming in. So, one was from Eddie Ba. How hot will it likely get?

[00:10:08]And will there be any record-breaking temperatures? Aiden's going to go through all of the details with regards to just how hot it's going to be and where, but uh it's close to record-breaking. Now, interestingly, the the record for June, 35.6, comes from 1976, that famous summer. There was another instance of it as well, but yes, that's the June record for our maximum temperature. And at the moment, we're going with around a 30 40% chance of us exceeding that daytime record on either Monday or Tuesday. And it's not just the daytime highs that could be exceptionally hot. We're also looking at some very warm nights as well with temperatures not dropping particularly low at all. So, that's another record that could be exceeded as well. Um, I saw another question that I wanted to ask. So, uh, Gordy Bees asked if the technical team are in. They are working their socks off and I think our technical team have uh done some good magic or worked their magic and things are working again.

[00:11:08]>> Fingers crossed.

[00:11:09]>> Keep the graphics up and running now.

[00:11:11]Yeah, that was smooth. Anyway, >> smooth. No, I don't think anyone noticed. So, it's absolutely fine. Um, huge 69 X London 7 uh tricky username probably got that entirely wrong but has asked is this heat a result of El Nino?

[00:11:25]And I I picked that question because the answer is quite simple. Uh no, not in this instance. Uh we we've talked a few times about El Nino and the impacts that it has on the UK during the summer months, marginal if any. Uh and really whilst an El Nino was declared earlier on, uh was it this week or it was last week? It was last week by by the Americans >> by the Japanese and the Americans and then early this week by the Bureau of Meteorology. So even though it has uh is now an El Nino event taking place as we go through this year and into next, it's uh not really impacting our UK weather for the time being. There's always a lag of several weeks before we see any major impacts anyway. And the summer impact in the UK is always minimal if anything.

[00:12:10]There will be further studies I'm sure done over the next coming years of the impact of El Nino on summer weather in the northern hemisphere but uh yeah it's it's not going to be a major cont it's not a contributing factor to how exceptionally hot it is going to be. I think the big reason for the hot weather is is well there's high pressure. We have this heat dome which I'm sure you'll talk about in a second and um >> sinking air.

[00:12:37]>> Sinking air as we've talked about with many our heat waves over recent years.

[00:12:41]It's yeah the air sinking and then heating up as it comes towards us.

[00:12:44]>> Yeah. Wait till you see the trajectories of where the air that is over the south on Monday where that currently is because it might surprise you. Yeah.

[00:12:56]Yeah. It probably Well, you say it might surprise you.

[00:12:59]>> I was talking to the a Well, yeah, we've got an intelligent audience. It might not.

[00:13:03]>> We've gotten We've got an intelligent audience that have watched our deep dives and our weather studio lives and we've talked about this kind of thing uh a few times. So, yeah, I think it will less and less completely unsurprising.

[00:13:15]So, feel free to skip that bit cuz you already know it clearly.

[00:13:18]>> Um Dave Waters, 6246, we've already had pretty warm nights. Is it going to get much worse? Um, unfortunately, it does look like temperatures by night are going to be several degrees higher during the early part of next week than they have already been through recent weeks. We've had high humidity, which is why temperatures have been so uncomfortably high and it's been so muggy through recent nights and humidity staying high into next week. And we're seeing even higher temperatures by day and the days are getting even shorter.

[00:13:46]Of course, uh, it's the solstice on Sunday, so the the Sorry, I said the days are getting shorter. I think I meant the nights are getting shorter uh because it's the solstice on Sunday. So, we're at like, you know, peak day length and so perfect ingredients for nights just to stay uncomfortably warm. Uh so, not good news for anyone who was hoping to sleep.

[00:14:09]>> No, really not. And, you know, that's one of the big factors when considering an extreme heat warning as well. It's not just about those daytime temperatures, although they can sound impressive when talking about, you know, getting close to the June record, chance of beating it, all that stuff, mid-30s.

[00:14:24]Actually, nighttime temperatures often are a bigger deal when it comes to impacts. Uh, especially in our country where it's difficult for houses, for buildings to cool down overnight.

[00:14:35]>> Right. We've talked a lot about the heat already, but I think we want to get into the nitty-gritty and the details. So, are you ready to head over to the board if everything's working? Let's go >> and let's look at just how hot it's going to get and where this heat is coming from.

[00:14:52]>> The Met Office have issued an extreme heat warning for Monday, Tuesday for some parts of the UK. But when we talk about extreme heat, what do we mean? And how extreme will it be? What will be the impacts of that heat? Before I get into that, let's take a look at where the air is coming from, why it's turning hotter.

[00:15:14]And actually, at first glance, it looks like low pressure is in charge of the weather across the UK right now. That low pressure is sitting close to Iceland. But looking further west, the jetream, it's becoming weaker. It's becoming a little bit more wavy. Now, the first half of June, the jetream was actually southshifted. It was had a bit of oomph. It was sending us low pressure after low pressure. So this is a stark contrast compared with the first half of the month. But actually one big factor driving the heat is this low coming out of North America. And although on the face of it, most of the computer models have the same general theme through the next few days in terms of high pressure building, high temperatures arriving.

[00:15:59]Subtle differences in terms of the track and depth of this low will make a big difference in terms of how extreme the temperatures will be early next week, especially Tuesday onwards, how widespread the heat will be across the UK, and how long it will last. So, it's this low that is crucial in terms of determining the extent, the severity, and the duration of this heat. But before the low arrives into the Mid-Atlantic, you can see through Saturday, high pressure is building.

[00:16:32]It's already across central parts of Europe, but it's going to extend north.

[00:16:38]That means that although Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England have seen a lot of rain this week, it is going to turn drier. These weather fronts are going to be pushed further north. So, we've got this drying up trend and this warming up trend across most of the UK. Even if you've had a lot of rain this week, it's going to turn drier. It's going to turn warmer where you are through Saturday. And actually for Scotland, for Northern Ireland, for Northern England, it's a fine weekend.

[00:17:04]It's a decent weekend. Mostly dry, bright, increasingly warm. But the highest temperatures are arriving from the south. It's going to heat up under this large area of high pressure over the near continent. And those temperatures are going to build day by day. And after a fresher Saturday, it's going to turn increasingly hot through Sunday into Monday as that high pressure remains in place. Now, here's the low coming into the Mid-Atlantic. This is showing the Met Office model, which is modeling this low as a deeper feature in the Mid-Atlantic.

[00:17:41]That means it it kind of slows down and forces more of a high pressure ridge ahead of it and forces higher temperatures across southern parts of the UK and a longerlasting heat wave compared with some other models. So that's the key difference, but most models have the same general setup in terms of high pressure dominating the scene early next week and the heat that is across central Europe just expanding northwards. Imagine this expanding balloon of heat centered across France pushing into southern parts of the UK.

[00:18:18]So, it's not that the surface winds across northern France pushing higher temperatures our way. It's this expanding bubble of heat that actually originates in a surprising location. This graphic here, it's slightly technical, but I'll walk you through it. This shows where the air on Monday is coming from. So that's the location on Monday where the air over London is. And then you just trace these lines back to see where it comes from 5 days earlier. Now, there are lots of lines on this chart coming from all sorts of different places, but the important lines are the blue ones, the darker blue ones, because that's the air at the surface in London on Monday.

[00:19:06]And it shows where that air comes from.

[00:19:08]And actually, if you trace it back, it's coming from Iceland a couple of days ago. And right now, as we're three or four days ahead, it's around well, just off the west of Scotland. So that's where the air over London on Monday is currently. It came from Iceland. It's moving over Scotland, Northern Ireland, then it ends up at the surface on Monday in London. So what on earth is going on?

[00:19:32]Well, it's actually sinking quite significantly through the atmosphere. So yes, starts in Iceland but starts way up four or five km above the surface and then over the next few days as it gets caught up in that really quite large area of high pressure the high pressure forces it down. It compresses it just like when we're pumping up our bicycle tires that causes the air to heat up.

[00:19:57]It's called adiabatic warming or compression and that causes the air to heat up. it causes those exceptionally high temperatures to develop. There are some of these uh sources of air coming from the south, but that's air higher levels by the time you get to London.

[00:20:16]And this graphic here shows so this is Monday and then this is Sunday. We're going back in time five six days. This graphic shows the height of the different um levels of the atmosphere as it reaches London on Monday. So London on Monday, dark blue at the surface and then these oranges about 1 kilometer up and then you can trace the height at which they came from. And it's this that is crucial. These darker blues, they start at four or 5 km ab of Iceland and then over the next few days it's sinking. So it's sinking air that is causing the exceptional high temperatures, not just for southern parts of the UK. And I know I'm talking a lot about London because that's where some of the highest temperatures are going to be, but I'm going to talk more about other parts of the UK in a moment.

[00:21:03]Before I do, I want to show you the rest of Europe because, you know, a lot of people when we issue these extreme heat warnings, they might say, "Well, people in France or Spain, they'll be laughing at us with our extreme heat warning."

[00:21:18]That's unlikely because they're too busy issuing their own extreme heat warnings or in some places called severe high temperature warnings. Most of these colored areas on the graphic. These are warnings that are currently in force across many parts of the UK for this weekend. Most of these are for high temperatures. We've got high temperature warnings extending from southern Italy through to the Alps into parts of uh Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Spain.

[00:21:48]So all these places where you get higher temperatures in June compared with the UK, they've got their own high temperature warnings because it's not about the temperature thresholds, it's about the impacts of the heat. And those impacts will vary country to country depending on what they're used to and their infrastructure. Now, across France in particular, temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15° above average for the time of year. So, even though June is typically very warm in France, it's well above what we'd normally expect, especially for northern France. I'll show you the temperatures in a moment, but this is some of the text that accompanies their severe high temperature warning. Everyone is in danger, even those in good health. So, this is the French Meteorological Office. danger is greater for elderly people, people suffering from chronic diseases, mental health troubles, and people who regularly take medicine and so on. So, they're taking this seriously. It's a an amber or orange extreme heat warning for France, but also for many parts of the UK. Now, this shows by Monday the peak of the temperatures and what we can expect across many parts of Europe. So yeah, these are not typical temperatures, especially when you look at Paris, 39°, could be 40, could be touch higher than that. If I just click on the map here to bring up some other temperatures across France, you know, high30s, low 40s. These are not typical temperatures for France. So actually the heat across France is more exceptional compared with that climate, compared with Spain, compared with North Africa, compared with other parts of the UK. The greatest anomalies are in this area and it's those anomalies that are pushing into southern parts of the UK where we're also going to see highly anomalous temperatures. So, highly unusual temperatures for the time of year. How high will those temperatures be? Well, let's take a look first of all at how they compare with average.

[00:23:48]This map shows the maximum temperatures over the next few days.

[00:23:52]Now, already we're seeing temperatures reaching the low30s on um just going to click here to bring up Friday.

[00:24:03]Oh, doesn't want to do that. But we can see it laid out in front of you. Friday, low30s in the east of England. Saturday, it's not quite as warm, but it's still above average widely apart from western Scotland. Closer to average across western parts of the UK. But then Sunday, the heat builds again. Monday, more intense heat is likely to develop and that heat is potentially going to intensify further into Tuesday.

[00:24:33]What kinds of temperatures are we talking about? Well, this gives you a flavor of the day today into the low30s in East Anglia in the southeast on Friday. Very localized on Friday.

[00:24:45]Saturday, it's a bit fresher because the rain that we've currently got across northern and western parts of the country moves through overnight. That's a cold front. It actually introduces fresher air. So, Saturday starts off cloudy. It's not quite as hot. Sunday, the heat builds as that high pressure builds across the UK from northern France. Now, it's got a 30 on the map there. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 31° somewhere across the far south and southeast on Sunday. You'll also notice that for Northern England, parts of Wales are into the mid20s, low 20s further north across Scotland and Northern Ireland. And a much drier and brighter day expected. So yeah, it's turning warmer in the north, but the highest temperatures in the south Monday 3132 it's got there on the graphic. Now our most likely temperature on Monday is 34 Celsius. That's what we reckon is most likely, but plus or minus 2°. So anywhere from 32 up to 36 C. And that's due to those uncertainties I mentioned before in terms of how amplified the jet stream becomes, how deep that low that's approaching becomes. So how much more of the heat is forced north across southern parts of the UK. Uh is it going to be record-breaking on Monday? There's a 30% chance that the England record will be broken for June and a 30% chance the Wales record will be broken for June.

[00:26:07]Those records stand at 35.6 Celsius for England and the UK and 33.7 Celsius for Wales. There's a 30% chance that either of those records could be broken on Monday. It then turns even hotter on Tuesday. Tuesday's temperatures become increasingly uncertain actually.

[00:26:27]And to illustrate that, I've got a graphic that shows the trend in the temperatures through the next few days.

[00:26:36]if the buttons will work here. We're having great fun with the graphics today, aren't we? We'll just try and reset it over. Ah, if you press F10 twice, that may do it. Thank you, Mr. B.

[00:26:51]There we go. That's fixed it. Always try restart first. Now, this is the graphic I really want to show. It's worth the wait.

[00:27:02]Are we going to have to wait?

[00:27:08]I knew it. I knew it would flash on and off. Here we go. Here we go. Right. This is a new graphic that I'm showing you here. So, it's it's certainly worth the wait. And it shows the temperature trend, not from one model, but from 51 models. This is the uh European model and the most likely temperature from that model, but also some of the extremes.

[00:27:31]Now the middle line is the mean. So that's the average from the European model. And then the outer bounds of this uh kind of white shading that represents the 95th percentile on top and the fifth percentile on the bottom. So if you order the temperatures for each hour from the European model 51 computer model runs and you take the hottest 5% that's what the top line's showing and then the coolest 5%.

[00:27:59]But if none of that makes sense to you, suffice to say that this is the temperature trend for wherever I click on the map. And it shows the not only the most likely temperature, but the range of temperatures. And what you can see is that these lines are close together through the weekend. So there's not much range, but by Monday and more especially into Tuesday, you look at the highest temperature on Tuesday, it's showing, and this is just outside London. Tuesday up to 34 35 Celsius on top and then uh high 20s further down but most likely low to mid30s. This is Tuesday. And if I move that dot around the map, you can see it's a similar situation across many parts of East and Southeast England. Oh, I just saw quite an extreme one there. So that's London itself, the top one showing 36 Celsius.

[00:28:53]So that's for Tuesday. There is the risk that temperatures will be even higher on Tuesday and but the error bars are higher. So we're talking about a maximum most likely temperature of 34 Celsius in the southeast on Tuesday with the potential for 37 C. That's the southeast. Let's go to the southwest where actually Monday looks particularly hot because we've got a bit of an easterly breeze which will bring a cooler feel for East Anglia but a hotter feel for the southwest of England. However, you can see although there's reasonable confidence for a hot day on Monday, these get very big indeed from Tuesday onwards. Now moving it further north into Wales and you can see similar uncertainties from the middle of next week. even more so by the time you get to Northern England. Really quite a large spread Tuesday onwards. Look at that range of possible temperatures for Wednesday onwards. And that is down to the fact that we've got the low in the Mid-Atlantic which is likely to come in and approach the UK. But how it affects northern parts of the UK, whether it brings cloud and showery rain from the middle of the week or whether it forces the high pressure to the south to build even further and bring higher temperatures across the whole of the UK.

[00:30:08]That is the main source of uncertainty.

[00:30:11]So Monday, Tuesday at the moment looking at the peak of the heat, mid30s.

[00:30:16]However, still some uncertainty remaining in terms of the exact values of those high temperatures, whether we'll beat the June record, which is a 30% chance of Monday, 40% chance on Tuesday, and whether the heat continues from Wednesday onwards, or whether we see something a little fresher. Either way, much of next week is looking mostly settled with high pressure close by. And some of the computer models are suggesting a return to the heat later next week if it does turn fresher for a while. Other computer models are suggesting different things entirely. So yeah, next few days looking like the heat really intensifies into early next week. And that is why the Metal Office have issued an extreme heat warning.

[00:31:00]Here it is for this area here across the south of the UK, South Wales included. And it's going to be very humid along with those high temperatures. We're going to see very warm nights. These are the factors that we consider as well as the absolute maximum temperatures expected early next week. And in many ways, the humidity is more important than the absolute temperatures. This shows the humidity on Monday. Appreciate it might be hard to see the outline of the UK, but what's important is to focus on the south of England and parts of Wales where dueoint temperatures, that's what this is showing, are above 20 Celsius and that's going to make it feel really quite oppressive, making it difficult to cool down during the day and be cool at night. So overnight temperatures in the low 20s in places. This hot spell coming up is going to be more humid compared with the hot spell in May. So it's likely to result in more impacts because of that increase in humidity even if temperatures are similar. And more impacts to infrastructure, roads, railways, uh bridges and so on. We saw that kind of thing in May. Could see it again this time. But also dangerous conditions for vulnerable people. not just vulnerable people. You know, it's difficult for for a lot of us to cool down in this kind of heat when we've got homes that are built to keep heat in rather than to let it out. So, keep your homes cool. Keep curtains closed during the middle part of the day. Stay out the sun in the middle of the part of day if you suffer from this kind of heat. The sun is at its strongest for the time of year, of course, with the solstice this weekend. Stay hydrated. Slap on sunscreen. All that advice worth emphasizing given how unusual this hot spell is that is coming up. And one final thing to Ram home is please stay safe around water. Of course we saw so many tragic stories back in May and inland bodies of water. The sea still relatively chilly despite how hot it is outside. So, some sensible advice is not to just jump straight into random bodies of water, not to do that sort of thing on your own. Wear bright colors so that people can see you clearly when you're in the water. And um yeah, uh make sure that you you are sensible basically when it comes to to swimming and cooling off in this kind of heat.

[00:33:34]>> Really insightful, Aiden. Thank you so much. And some useful advice there.

[00:33:38]something that we we definitely want to make sure the message is getting across when it comes to uh being safe in the water. Several questions have come in.

[00:33:46]Many of them you've answered already.

[00:33:48]So, I hope that's uh answered your question. GordyB, you asked about any tropical nights. Yes, there will be some early part of next week. And that kind of goes on with uh Node P5P when you asked why has the heat warning been issued now when we didn't issue one back in May. And as Aiden explained, it's the humidity is higher and particularly our temperatures by night aren't uh dropping as low and so you don't get that rest bite that many people particularly those who are vulnerable need in order to uh recover from the particularly hot days.

[00:34:22]But Puffin Nest has then asked the question why is it more humid this time?

[00:34:28]>> Why is it more humid? Really, really good question and you know it's partly to do with the source of the air at the moment. it's coming from the Atlantic and then becoming compressed as well.

[00:34:39]Um, and you know, it's the time of year as well. I mean, we had the the heat in May was focused across a smaller and further north part of the UK uh of the of the world. This area of high pressure is developing very widely across France into Spain and just ballooning across the UK from the south over the next few days. So, it's a much larger area of heat with the air trapped under it containing relatively high humidities.

[00:35:15]>> Thanks, Aiden. And one question that came in from the deep dive from Nikki Johnson uh was she's doing the chase the sun cycle from uh Kent to Western Super Mayor on Saturday. How's that looking?

[00:35:30]>> You know, one of our colleagues is doing that. Lynn Armstrong.

[00:35:33]>> Oh, is she?

[00:35:33]>> Yeah.

[00:35:34]>> Ah, nice.

[00:35:35]>> Impressive. Impressive cycle. I've spoke to Lynn about it and >> it's 330 kilometers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:35:41]There are a couple going on. So, there's one that one in Southern England and then there's also one in Northern Ireland and one in Scotland as well, I believe. So, three of them. But, uh, let's look at the one in Southern England. The weather's looking pretty decent, isn't it? On Saturday.

[00:35:54]>> On Saturday is a good day for it. Yeah, because it's going to be fine. It's going to be dry, but it's not going to be as hot as it will be Sunday onwards.

[00:36:03]So, you've picked a fresher day.

[00:36:05]>> The wind there'll be a bit of a breeze, won't there?

[00:36:07]>> Which direction is it? Can you >> The guests are going from east to west.

[00:36:10]So from Kent to western superare >> not much of a breeze you know it's yeah could be a lot worse a cloudy start perhaps the odd spot of rain and then it's just a f you know ideal cycling weather perhaps a little bit on the warm side but yeah it could be worse could be worse >> okay one last question before I bring you back to the board if the heat rebuilds at the end of next week would it be possible for another warning to be issued due to long longevity? Of course, I mean, we're always considering these warnings and uh end of next week. Long way to look ahead at the moment. I know there are some computer model runs that are showing some very high temperatures for the end of next week. Equally, there are other model runs that aren't. So, lots of uncertainty as I showed in that graphic. You know, a big range of potential temperatures for the end of next week. But of course, by the time we get to a few days ahead of the end of next week, we'll be looking at it. Is that signal for higher temperatures still there? Is it going to cause the kinds of impacts that we're talking about early next week? I'm sure the chief uh upstairs will be considering all those factors once again when thinking about extreme heat warnings.

[00:37:22]>> Yeah, exactly. The warnings will get updated, tweaked, and reissued if if needed as we get through next week. So, thank you, Aiden. One thing that we can rely on when it comes to Weather Studio Live, not always the graphics. They've let us down a little bit today, but there's the quiz. Should we do the quiz?

[00:37:39]>> Oh, love to.

[00:37:50]>> Now, there's not a strong theme about the quiz this week, but I have tried to make it weather related. So, you know, you're welcome. always helps. You're still lingering down there at the bottom of the leaderboard.

[00:38:02]>> Well, I mean, when you average the scores, I'm still at the bottom. So, >> still near the bottom, but yeah. Yeah. I think you've had some tough quizzes.

[00:38:10]>> Only had four quizzes this year.

[00:38:12]>> Yeah. It's mind-blowing.

[00:38:13]>> Yeah.

[00:38:13]>> Yeah. You keep taking annual leave.

[00:38:16]>> I'm don't seem to be allowed to be.

[00:38:18]>> No more leave for me on Friday. Good.

[00:38:20]>> That's it.

[00:38:20]>> Good. Uh, right. So, question they all the questions are related to what's happening this weekend and early next week. So, >> just to ask.

[00:38:28]>> Yes.

[00:38:28]>> Are you going to be >> Oh, one at a time.

[00:38:30]>> One at a time. Question then answer.

[00:38:32]>> Question then answer straight away.

[00:38:33]Let's smash through this. Let's Let's keep the momentum going. Let's see how you do it.

[00:38:37]>> Do it.

[00:38:38]>> So, question one. Oh, so this isn't the quiz question, but what day is it on Sunday?

[00:38:44]>> What day is it? Yeah, solstice. It >> is the solstice, but what else?

[00:38:50]>> The um midsummer's day.

[00:38:57]for something else.

[00:38:59]>> Uh it's not just it's not weather related.

[00:39:02]>> The astronomical start of summer.

[00:39:04]>> You're right. It's Father's Day on Sunday. God, totally forgot that. Yeah.

[00:39:09]>> So, yeah, Father's Day is on Sunday. Um and on Father's Day in 2010, Billings in Mont Montana was hit by what notable weather event? It was so notable there was a there's a Wikipedia page about it.

[00:39:22]>> Well, that's a different date, isn't it?

[00:39:23]They they have >> This was the 20th of June. Oh, was it?

[00:39:26]It was around. Yeah, it was in in the States.

[00:39:28]>> Yeah, their mother's day is different, >> but I think their father's day it was I think it was the 20th of June.

[00:39:34]>> Oh, >> so yeah. But either way, it was So, Billings, Montana was hit by what notable weather event? A a tornado, B, a flash flood, C a hurricane, or D extreme heat.

[00:39:47]>> Right. Well, they're not going to have a hurricane in Montana. So yeah, that leaves three that they could have. I mean, what year was it?

[00:39:58]>> 2010.

[00:39:59]>> I'm good. I'm I'm edging towards the first two, but I' have no idea. Was it tornado or >> tornado, flash, flood, extreme heat, and hurac, which you >> Let's go with tornado.

[00:40:12]>> Cool. We're going with tornado.

[00:40:14]66 almost 2/3 uh 66% almost two/3s of the audience have agreed with you and you're all right.

[00:40:24]>> Yeah, brilliant tornado. Yeah, it was a big tornado. Caused lots of damage.

[00:40:28]Winds in excess of 100 miles per hour.

[00:40:30]Really, really impactful. So that's why it was such a notable event.

[00:40:33]>> So you're off to a good start.

[00:40:35]>> Just wondering now if I get five out of five, I'm ahead ahead of Deaks on more games, but still ahead.

[00:40:41]>> You're still not that good at math.

[00:40:42]You'll be tied. uh two at the moment uh sorry at the moment of the June solstice what is the sun's declination so the angular distance of the sun north or south on the earth's celestial equator so is it a + 66.5° b + 23.5° c 0° or d minus 23.5° >> oh blime me >> I think we've talked talked about this in deep dives before. So the declination is the angular distance of the sun north or south above the equator >> and so is it plus 66.5 plus 23.5 or minus 23.5 >> first of all uh Mr. Deacon would say that the earth is tilted at 23.4°.

[00:41:38]>> It's 23.44. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:41:41]Sure. Sure. So, I don't know if that makes a diff difference or whether it's the 0° thing.

[00:41:45]>> I've rounded to 23.5.

[00:41:47]>> You don't round up though with >> I know4.

[00:41:51]>> You're right. It's 23.4. Okay. Do you want me to change the question?

[00:41:55]>> Uh, only if it affects the answer. I mean, it it could be that that's just a meaningless number and it's not the right answer.

[00:42:02]>> Um, I might need let's not let's not worry ourselves too much about that. What's a what's a one >> point 06 of a degree?

[00:42:16]>> Yeah. Um I'm going to I think it's going to be one of those two then given the panic on your face that you've got the wrong answer. Uh but is it plus or minus? Um h let's go with plus.

[00:42:29]>> So you're going with B plus 23.44.

[00:42:32]>> Yeah. Plus the incorrect answer.

[00:42:35]>> Most people are agreeing with you. Just over 50% have also said yes. 23.5 or 23.44 if we're being pedantic. Yes. Uh yeah, it's slight tilt. So, well, it's to do with the tilt of the Earth, obviously, >> because the sun's not really moving that much.

[00:42:52]>> Bonus point for correcting the question marker.

[00:42:55]>> No, in fact, you you're close to me changing one of the questions to make them really hard. Uh, question three.

[00:43:01]The solstice or the word solstice comes from the Latin words meaning sun and what else? So a high, b hot, c long or d still.

[00:43:16]>> H.

[00:43:18]>> So like soul comes from the Latin word to mean sun.

[00:43:21]>> What does the other bit mean?

[00:43:24]>> So it's high, hot, long, or still.

[00:43:28]>> Oh god, I don't. Yeah, I think it's probably high, isn't it? It's high sun.

[00:43:32]It's high in the sky.

[00:43:36]Is that right?

[00:43:37]>> And the the sun is high in the sky. Uh on >> but it's also up for a long time.

[00:43:44]>> It is also up for a long time.

[00:43:45]>> It's not very still. So, not I'm going to discount that. What was the other choice?

[00:43:51]>> Uh hot.

[00:43:53]>> Hot.

[00:43:54]>> I don't think it's that either. I think it's I'm going to go with soulis.

[00:44:06]I wonder if I can figure it out by thinking of words in English that are similar to stis that mean either long or high like stilts. That makes you high.

[00:44:28]Sun stilts.

[00:44:30]>> I'm going high st for that reason.

[00:44:34]>> You're going high. Okay. Um the majority of well 40% of people have gone with D.

[00:44:39]And still I mean they have the same first two letters. So that's good logic.

[00:44:43]And their logic is better than yours unfortunately. Still still is more similar to >> than than high.

[00:44:53]>> We're a simple nation. simple language I guess in some respects not many but yeah so Celsius comes from the words sun and also to stand still >> great question four so we've talked about the fact that June 1976 we're coming up to 50 years since the anniversary of that exceptional hot spell and uh the record for June in the UK maximum temperature record it comes from 1976 it was a previous event as well but 1976 holds the record um But anyway, I digress. That's for question five. For question four, for in June 1976, we had 15 consecutive days where somewhere in the UK exceeded 32 Celsius.

[00:45:35]But how many consecutive days did somewhere in the UK get above 30 Celsius?

[00:45:41]>> Was it 15? You say >> 15 for 32?

[00:45:45]>> I've got a number in my head. I'm just going to wait and see if it comes up.

[00:45:47]>> Okay. A 16, B 18, C 20, and D 22.

[00:45:54]>> I know it's either 16 or 18.

[00:45:59]>> 18 was the number in my head, but six.

[00:46:04]Actually, it might be 16 cuz I I looked it up the other day and I thought, oh, blime me, 16 days. So, I counted them cuz I thought this this hot spell right starts first day of 30 in terms of a consecutive run is is Sunday. And then I'm pretty sure I counted >> um 16 days from there. Just out of curiosity in terms of if this was to last, at what point would it break the June uh 1976 record? June July. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16. Yeah, I go with 16.

[00:46:46]>> You should have gone with your gut then your original it's 18 >> and most people uh said 18.

[00:46:53]>> So uh so close. You're right. It wasn't 20 or >> Always go with the first Yeah, just go with your gut. But yeah, 18 days.

[00:47:01]Interestingly, we also had 18 days where we were above 28 Celsius. So um you know either side of that, you know, it there was a marked drop. Yeah.

[00:47:12]>> Uh after after the period ended, I mean, it was still very warm, but not exceptionally hot. Okay, so you're two for four. That's about your average, I guess. Uh question five. Uh so this is what I was getting on to earlier. So the 1976 temperature record of 35.6 was set. Do you know where it was set? This isn't the quiz question, but do you remember >> the night the location?

[00:47:38]>> Yeah. Southampton.

[00:47:39]>> Southampton. What was the name of the >> Mayflower?

[00:47:42]>> Mayflower Park. Yes. Now, Mayflower was an English square rigged merchant sailing ship >> active in which century?

[00:47:50]>> Can I just get a point for saying Southampton to Mayflower? I knew that one.

[00:47:55]>> That's too easy.

[00:47:57]>> Okay. Which century? I'm going to go with 17th century.

[00:48:00]>> Oh, have you got options?

[00:48:01]>> You have got options. Go on.

[00:48:02]>> You have got options, but you probably don't need it. So, A, the 1600s. So, the 17th century. B, the 1700s. D the 1800s or D the 1900s. You've given me your answer already. Let's leave people a little bit of a chance to see what they uh get. Mayflower Park. Oh yeah, people.

[00:48:19]Um some said the 16th century. So that wasn't an option. Uh but uh 1600s. I tried to make it clear by putting 1600s because some people obviously you and I know that the 16th century actually refers to the 15th00. But you said the 17th century anyway, didn't Unless you're rounding down like you do with the uh the earth my rounding isn't uh isn't reliable. So, but I wanted to make it clear just to uh be safe, but yeah, lots of people agreeing with you and yes, you are correct. The answer is a the 1600s 15. It's not too bad. 15 out of five games. Yeah. Average of three.

[00:48:59]>> Yeah. Average. Yeah. Your average stays steady.

[00:49:02]>> Now, you know what Annie said the other day? Uh >> oh. You know what Annie said?

[00:49:06]>> No.

[00:49:07]>> She said, "You lot make the quizzes deliberately hard for me."

[00:49:10]>> No, I So I didn't >> this this week.

[00:49:13]>> Yeah. But and if you think of the two that you got wrong, the three there still the first two letters are the same in stis and still.

[00:49:22]>> I know that. And I knew the other answer.

[00:49:24]>> And you knew the other answer. So you could have quite easily got five for five rematch.

[00:49:29]>> Yeah. Well, okay. Right. We'll do the quiz again. Let's I mean, we're probably going to have to re-edit this whole Weather Studio Live anyway because of what went wrong at the beginning, so we might as well redo the quiz.

[00:49:37]>> I mean, those were the best bits to do there.

[00:49:40]>> It's gone downhill since then. Um, right. We're all well past timings, but thank you for all the questions that you're coming in. How have you got on the quiz? Lots of people doing uh as well, if not better than you, Aiden. So, some people getting five for five. Who got five? Two top blue 59 got five out of five. Uh, Chazand Chazando LFC got five out of five as well. Grenadier, don't worry. Uh, zero out of five. It's about taking part that counts. So, well done everyone for how you did and thank you for joining us for this week's weather studio Live. Sorry we couldn't get through all your questions. Aiden uh went through in such good detail about what's going to happen with regards to the the hot weather that is coming our way. I mean, it's already started to edge in, but it's really building and intensifying early next week. Do stay on top of those warnings. That extreme heat warning could well be updated, issued, extended. Lots of thing or reissued. Uh so, lots of things to be aware of. Like we say, low to mid30s looks quite likely for the early part of next week at least. Uh and it is really going to be quite an exceptional hot spell, potentially record-breaking both by day and night. So, do stay safe, enjoy the fine weather if you can, and uh we'll see you again soon.

[00:50:54]>> Bye-bye.