While the US War with Iran is Over, Israel's Terrorism in West Asia will Continue

[00:00:03]Good day friends. Today I will talk about the MOU that has been signed by President Trump and President Pishkia and Prime Minister Shahbak Sharif is the witness. Before I discuss the key takeaways of the MOU, at least six things need to be said.

[00:00:22]The first is that in my assessment thisou signals the beginning of the end of the American empire and the rise of the new world order. When we talk of the American empire we are talking about a hegemonic order which is built on two exceptional strengths of America its military power and dollar as the reserve currency of the world. We are talking about an order which is about absolute security. An order where America makes and breaks the rules at will.

[00:00:52]Now this new world order is absolutely opposite of the American order because here the focus is on development through peace and peace does not come through absolute security but collective security. Here the rules are based on united nations. Each nation has sovereign equality. There is no interference in the internal affairs of another nation. In other words, it is not about hgeimonyy being excised by a single country or collectively. It is about partnership amongst all the nations. Now as I go along in my talk the viewers will realize that thisou as this gets implemented this provides the foundation for the new world order in West Asia. Now my second point is that whatever is there in theou this is the minimal acceptable to Iran.

[00:01:47]Any deviation from this without Iranian concept could lead Iran to close the state of Hermos for commercial use.

[00:01:57]My third point is that there are whole lot of critics of President Trump in America. The policy makers, the think tanks, the media, the analyst who are crying foul who are saying that Trump has given far too much to Iran in the MOU for little in return. Now they seem oblivious of two realities.

[00:02:19]The first reality is that this is not a peaceimeou where both sides win. It is not a win-win.

[00:02:27]This is aou which has come about as a consequence of a war. And when this happens that means one side win the other loses.

[00:02:36]And we are talking of a war which was a decisive war because President Trump simply today does not have the military option whereas the Iranians they have the military options. So this needs to be kept in mind.

[00:02:50]And the other thing is that the American establishment the think tanks and the analyst at large they still believe that the world is the is the same. America is the superpower.

[00:03:03]They do not realize the world has changed.

[00:03:06]So they need to understand that Iran fought this campaign brilliantly with an excellent military strategy but it was also helped militarily and diplomatically by two great powers China and Russia in the present multipolar world.

[00:03:24]My next point is that there are a lot of analyst cynics who say that look what Trump is trying to do through theou is by time he'll restart the war. that will not happen.

[00:03:37]President Trump got into a wrong war and now he's determined not to start the war. So as far as America is concerned, this war is over. And there are many reasons why I say that. The first of course is as I said, Trump simply has no military option.

[00:03:54]Whereas on the other side, the Iranians have economic options. They have military options. For example, they can shut down the state of Harmos. They can shut down the Red Sea. they can get their allies Houthi to cut the subc cables which pass through the state of Harbos. And then we heard a senior IRGC commander say and rightly that Iran has the capability to reach Diggo Garcia in the Indian Ocean region and cover the Mediterranean Sea. And then we should also remember that as far as the western Indian Ocean is concerned in that region Iran has the capability to cover all those choke points there whether it is straight of Herbos Bal Mandave or the Mozambi channel and through its allies and its uh sorry its ally Houthi and the partner countries like Pakistan and China.

[00:04:53]China has a very huge logistic base.

[00:04:56]It's a military base in Djibouti. So all this needs to be kept in mind and I'm sure the realization is coming to Trump that he simply has no military option.

[00:05:07]Now the next thing why he wants to end the war is because he wants to be remembered as the president for peace.

[00:05:16]If you see the national security strategy of President Trump that came out from the White House in November 2025, it clearly says that he wants his legacy to be one of President for Peace.

[00:05:30]Next, please recall that in 2025, President Trump, he renamed the Department of Defense as the Department of War. And recently Pete Hixet, the Secretary of War, he sought a whopping 1.5 trillion budget for the fiscal year 2027 for the Department of War from the US Congress. So why are they doing that?

[00:05:57]Because Trump wants to leave West Asia and pivot to the Arctic Ocean because that is where there are military vulnerabilities and challenges for America. And then there is a huge challenge, security challenge in the western hemisphere because of China's belt and road initiative. It is for all these reasons that President Trump himself has signed the MOU.

[00:06:25]He has taken responsibility therefore for its implementation. And this is the reason that both President Trump and JD WS they've been openly calling out the Israelis telling them to stop their operations in Lebanon. They are telling them publicly that Israel cannot exist without American military power which is a fact. The next point is that while America war is over, Israel war is not over.

[00:06:54]Israel has its own objectives which are different from American objectives.

[00:06:59]Everybody knows.

[00:07:02]So for the time being there is ceasefire once again. How long it will last we don't know. So the scenario that we are looking at is the main war is over. The side war will continue. In other words what I call the no war no peace situation in West Asia will remain uh for quite some time now. It is the wisdom of the Iranians and I'm sure they've already shown the wisdom because Iraqi has gone to Switzerland.

[00:07:29]It is their wisdom that while the MOU clearly says that there should be ceasefire on all the fronts permanently, the territorial integrity of Lebanon also has to be ensured. In other words, the occupation that has already been done by the Israelis, they are, if you go by the report, something like 20% of Lebanon territory in South Lebanon is today under Israel occupation.

[00:07:56]Reportedly, they have made new maps.

[00:07:58]They are putting the settlements there.

[00:08:01]So I think the Iranians are wise to pause on this part and be content with the ceasefire for the time being and continue with the MOU to see it till the final deal is done because this is where their interest lies.

[00:08:17]And the last point that I want to make here is that Iran has called the MOU Islamabadou.

[00:08:24]In other words, Pakistan will have a important and a permanent role to play in the regional framework which is now being crafted for West Asia where I said that the foundation of the new world order is being laid and therefore Pakistan's role permanent role I will discuss in a separate video. Now once we understand these side points let me talk about theou once again to discuss theou one thing has to be kept in mind and that is that in the month of May uh Abbas Arachi the foreign minister of Iran he had traveled to Moscow met up with President Putin for an hour and a half and after that he went and met his counterpart Wongghi in China and once he was back in Thran He spoke about the new postwar regional framework.

[00:09:21]Now this framework is about collective security. It's about partnership. It is about the regional countries finding the answers to their regional problems with the backing of course of two great parts China and Russia. And this is the reason that once the MOU was signed, Arashi has been in constant telephonic talks both with Sergi Lavro as well as Wongi.

[00:09:50]So what is what is being sought by the Iranians is a postwar regional framework.

[00:09:58]Now let us come to the key points which are there in theou and of course the first leading point is about the Persian Gulf state of Hermos and the Gulf of Oman.

[00:10:10]Now there is nothing new in the MOU. The Iranians have been saying for a long time they have established a Persian Gulf straight authority which will be uh where the administration and the maritime security will be the responsibility of Iran and Oman. But this will work under the IRGC Navy.

[00:10:32]In other words, it is the IRGC Navy which will ensure the security of this entire passage. And I have said in my earlier videos also that the Iranians have put a lot of capabilities, military capabilities here, which is what I call the A2A capabilities, anti-access area denial capabilities for the security of this because this is their soidality.

[00:10:56]It is their internal water for international use. There should be no doubt about it. And therefore in the MOU it is very clearly written that the demining will be done by the Iranians within 30 days. So what the Iranians have done is that for the first 60 days, as long as the talks happen from the MOU to the finalization of the deal, they give a free passage for commercial shipping to everybody except Israel.

[00:11:28]And they are in the meantime also in consultation with the literal states which is basically the GCC nations because they want to take everybody along because this is a concept of collective security and partnership and they are in touch with them to see how best the rules can be framed but of course some sort of a fee will be led by them at the end of 60 days. So this is as far as this uh state is concerned.

[00:11:59]Now the MOU talks about US to remove its forces from proximity of Iran.

[00:12:07]This is to be done within 30 days after the deal is signed. So we are looking at 90 days period extendable by mutual consent.

[00:12:18]Now obviously the first thing that the Iranians would be asking is the Americans to vacate uh the GCC countries and top of the list of course will be Qatar.

[00:12:32]We know today the Americans have something like 50,000 troops in West Asia in 19 bases in 10 countries.

[00:12:41]And of these 10 countries, five countries are the GCC countries which is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE.

[00:12:50]So as I said, Qatar in my estimation will be the first country where the Americans will have to vacate their forces and reports already say and some analysts are already talking of that this has begun.

[00:13:04]Now Qatar is a unique place because it has no land border with Iran and its main export is LNG and it shares the gas field with Iran and it is also the head forward headquarter of America's central command. It is and it is the primary hub of American air operations for the region and something like 10,000 American troops are there. So once the draw down of troops and the assets happens from Qatar the next obviously will be Bahrain where the fifth fleet of the Americans is there. So the point that I am making is that the Iranians have proposed since a long time to the GCC countries and the other regional countries that there is a need for collective security that the regional countries look after their own security instead of collective defense which has been done with the help of the American forces.

[00:14:06]So once this starts happening which is there in theou that the basic bases have to be evocated in from the proximity of Iran then obviously the natural choice to provide the security for many countries would be Pakistan the GCC countries and reports say that after the Saudis have the the defense arrangement with Pakistan the Qataris are already also in talks with Pakistan so Pakistan will have a big role to play here there should be no doubt and once this starts happening what we are looking at is the end of petro dollars and petro dollars is at the heart of the American empire we all know that the next point which is there in theou is that the war has to end on all fronts all the allies of uh Iran which is what Iran calls the resistant front and they have to end permanently So the big issue here as I said earlier also will be Lebanon and Israel what they are doing against the Hisizbollah in Lebanon.

[00:15:16]So if the Iranians are wise enough which looks like they are then once the deal is signed because be very clear that President Trump is keen to sign the deal. As I said he does not want to start the war here any further. Once the deal is d signed then of course the next thing that the Iranians would be looking at is Gaza Hamas in Gaza and they would be looking at the Palestine issue and as far as Palestine issue is concerned absolutely important issue China has already done a lot of homework please recall that in 2024 in Beijing 14 Palestine factions including Fata alhamdula brought together uh for what the Chinese wanted to do was create a Palestine self-governance structure and Chinese are repeatedly talking about the two-state solution the once 1967 borders east Jerusalem as the capital for uh the Palestine state. So the point I'm making is there is enough hope and possibility for a Palestine solution. Palestine problem to finally get resolved under the new dispensation that I am talking about the new world order that is taking shape in West Asia and only after that the clips the wings of the Israelis will get clipped and the Israelis will be cut to size and they will finally end their dream of a greater Israel.

[00:16:54]Now the next thing of course is about the oil and the reparations financial reparations to Iran. Lot of analysts have said things about it. So I won't go in the details here. We all understand it is there in theou that immediately on signing of the uhou which has been done the Iranians now they are free to sell the oil which they are doing. Then their frozen assets they have to be released in stages some 12 billion to $25 billion. And then of course the MOU talks about 300 billions for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran that the Americans have to get from the regional allies from America and the regional allies their companies and the mechanism how this will happen has to be produced at the once the deal is done at the end of the deal. So all this is there and I want to touch about a very I want to touch upon a very important thing and that is the nuclear issue. We know that the ceasefire holds right now as I said and the two teams the Iranian team and the American team they are headed to Switzerland for the talks the nuclear talks.

[00:18:12]Now one issue of the nuclear talks of course is the the stockpile the nuclear stockpile the enriched stockpile of the Iranians which uh as is publicly known is about 440 kg and the enrichment is about 60% what what to do of that so theou very clearly says that there is a need for talk between the two sides on a possible on-site down blending where the IAEA inspectors will also be there.

[00:18:45]And of course when this talk was going on at that time lot of Iranians uh they said that this is unacceptable. Iran should have a nuclear weapon. Iran has won the war and perhaps to keep their sentiments also into account. The supreme leader of Iran of Iran Mushtabak Kamanay. He gave the statement where he said that he holds a different view from President Pashkan but he would go along with the assessment and President Pashkiel who has signed the MOU because he heads the Supreme National Security Council. Now you see the point that the Iranians I'm sure they have realized which is why President Pishkan has signed on this uh on in on in the on theou is that if Iran was to acquire the nuclear weapons it will come in a big way in building trust with the regional partners and without trust with the regional partners building the regional framework will not be possible because then Iran would see be seen as a hegemonic power. It will not be seen as a partner country.

[00:20:01]Now as far as the other issues which is about Iran's enrichment uh the under the under the NPT is concerned and there are a lot of analysts who are talking of GCPOA that was there in 2015 and this could take up to 2 years. I don't think so for the reason that at present the talks are only between uh America and Iran. Uh and uh the Europeans are not there at all.

[00:20:31]So that save saves a lot of time and as President Trump is very uh keen to end this uh you know to clinch the deal in my assessment. So this will not take so much of a time perhaps a bit of a extension with mutual consent. Another point which is there in theou is non-inference in each other's affairs.

[00:20:53]Now this is important for Iran and I'm sure President Trump understands that there should be no attempt for regime change and perhaps if not Msad the CIA will have to curtail its activities in Iran and all this once the final deal is done this has to be then uh endorsed under the United Nations. In other words, two great powers, China and Russia, they will be backing this deal under the United Nations. So the point I'm making is that as of now, what it appears is very clear that this thisou becoming a deal with perhaps a bit of an extension is very much possible because President Trump is serious about this.

[00:21:38]He wants to finish this. But of course the the Iranians and the region will have to live with uh with the mischief of the Israelis because that will not end and that will continue for quite some time. Thank you very much.