This Weather Will Flip Soon

追加: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]We've made it to the last day of May.

[00:00:03]Happy Sunday, guys. It's May 31st here in the state of Michigan.

[00:00:07]Forecast update video should be a quick one today. There's not much going on, as you probably know already, but we are watching the next week ahead, especially the second half of next week, for increasing chances of our humidity, moisture, and our rain and storm chances. So, this pattern will break eventually, but not over the next couple of days.

[00:00:27]Starting with today's high temps here at 4:00 p.m. on Sunday, May 31st, mid-70s for basically the entire state. There's a couple areas close to Lake Michigan or any lake, really, that's a few degrees below that 70° mark, so upper 60s, but otherwise, 100% of us going to be in the upper 60s or mid-70s today. Beautiful weather on tap, plenty of sun, not much wind, low moisture values. It's really a beautiful day. Get out and enjoy it.

[00:00:56]What are you watching this video for?

[00:00:57]Get out and enjoy it.

[00:00:58]All right, moving into the next week ahead, though. Let's go to look at Monday. Monday's high temps going to come in a little bit warmer further south, but otherwise, a repeat day there by the 2:00 p.m. time frame, we're seeing the upper 70s for South Michigan.

[00:01:12]May touch 80 in some spots. Otherwise, right around that 70° mark once again for the entire state of Michigan.

[00:01:20]We're going into the Tuesday time frame now. We're going to see pretty much a repeat day, go figure. Mid-70s, upper 70s in some in some spots by a lake, then drop a couple degrees off your high temps.

[00:01:35]Let's switch this over to our rain chances here and back this on up.

[00:01:40]Hour by hour over the next 3 days, we're going to notice there is some rain that gets close to the state of Michigan. Today's dry. Monday morning, we do have some showers in the vicinity of Wisconsin, down in toward Indiana.

[00:01:54]I don't think we're going to get anything, but models do indicate that we could have some very light drizzle down in the very far southwest corner of the state Monday morning.

[00:02:05]Again, I don't think it's going to amount to much if anything at all, but could have a few raindrops there.

[00:02:11]Otherwise, Monday stays pretty much dry. But into Tuesday, we are still pretty much dry.

[00:02:18]Even into Wednesday morning, we are still dry across the region. No rain chances. We get to the last half of the week, Thursday and onward. At that point, our concern increases. We'll talk about that in just a second. Before we do that though, I want to talk about the wind as well as our fire risk chances.

[00:02:35]So, these are your gusty winds here based off of the RFS model.

[00:02:40]Let me run this through the time frame here. Sunday, we're dry, we're calm.

[00:02:44]Monday, a repeat day, just a bit windier across central Michigan tomorrow. So, be be mindful of that. So, there could be some elevated fire risk tomorrow. Uh Tuesday, much of the same across south Michigan, some gustier winds there. And then into Wednesday, we are going to see a repeat of a nice calm day with just some areas that could gust a little higher than 5 to 10 mph. So, overall, Monday, Tuesday look to be the gustiest of those days.

[00:03:09]Let's take a peek at our humidity values cuz low humidity means fire risk. So, today, very low humidity values across the UP and northern wrap central portions of lower Michigan.

[00:03:22]Although again, the wind today is pretty calm, fires will start more easily with this with these conditions, but they're not going to spread as quickly as if there were some wind. Monday, that could change though. Monday, we're going to have some borderline fire weather conditions, especially across south Michigan and central Michigan. That could aid in fire risk. So, be mindful of that. Tuesday, we're going to repeat that again.

[00:03:43]Same pattern, same story.

[00:03:46]Entire state in some lower humidity values, so be mindful.

[00:03:49]Avoid outdoor burning.

[00:03:51]Check local restrictions and make sure you do not throw your cigarettes out on side of the roads or in dry grass or in brush because it could spark a whole lot easier over the next couple of days. So, dispose of any open flames or sparks properly.

[00:04:07]Let's jump into the late week time frame here. We're going to talk about our dew points today. We're going to go a little bit longer with video here trying to stretch this out a little bit, but we're going to notice these here dew points.

[00:04:17]So, the drier colors, the brown tan colors, those are your drier conditions.

[00:04:21]The green colors are your moister wetter conditions.

[00:04:24]All the way through Tuesday here, we are pretty much dry. We get to the second half of the week though after Wednesday into the Thursday time frame, moisture returns. And that also brings us that a little bit muggier feeling as well as a higher chance of some rain, some storms.

[00:04:39]We're into Friday now. We're going to continue this into Saturday where dew points make a run towards 70. So, it's going to be like a flip got switched or a switch got flipped.

[00:04:50]We're going to go from dry to moist pretty quickly. This continues all throughout that weekend time frame into next week.

[00:04:57]Next week we look to have a ridge-like pattern that may build in. We'll talk about that in a second.

[00:05:04]Flipping over here to our rain chances, we're going to notice if you back this up to around that Thursday time frame, Thursday morning up in the UP, our first shot of rain moves into the state.

[00:05:16]Well, that's going to be the UP though, not for the majority of us down here in the LP. That chance comes in later on Friday into Saturday morning. By Friday evening, better chances of rain further south move in and it could give us some nice soaking rains for a couple areas, but not going to be anything major that's going to cause, you know, anything impactful to all the dry conditions we've had, but it could be some rain.

[00:05:37]All throughout the Monday Sunday Monday and Tuesday time frame should be dry.

[00:05:41]Showers will move in right around the early part of next week and that is when the pattern flips.

[00:05:48]Let's go ahead and talk about the overall pattern. We're going to switch this over to the US look. So, give me a second. I was not prepared for this. We're going to have click on the US. There we go. I want to move these out of the way for you guys.

[00:06:04]I want to show you guys the overall pattern here of what's ahead.

[00:06:08]We're going to look at what's called the 500 millibar height anomaly chart.

[00:06:13]This basically tells us the jet streams, the patterns, active versus inactive phases. We're going to roll this. This is your omega block pattern right now we're sitting in. So, we have high pressure sitting all across central US here, which is giving us these beautiful weather conditions. But if as we move this in toward that late time frame of the late week time, that omega block pattern strips down, and it turns into what we call a ridge-like pattern.

[00:06:39]The ridge-like pattern takes shape here around that June 7th or so time frame.

[00:06:45]So, we'll move this out here to the June 7th time frame, which is right about here.

[00:06:50]What this pattern shows us is these black lines going up and over the US.

[00:06:55]That allows hot air to build across the central US, and the jet stream shifts, so storm systems will follow this upper-level jet stream track.

[00:07:06]That is a ridge pattern. It happens every single summer, pretty much every summer here in the US. What this means for us though, we're going to be a lot moister with a warm moist air building in from the Gulf across central US. So, expect more humid conditions coming, but also heightened chances of storms. They like to follow this ridge pattern downstream into the Great Lakes region. They usually form in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa. They form, they push up into a squall line, they move somewhere into Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio regions.

[00:07:40]That's the overall pattern ahead of us.

[00:07:42]And that ridge pattern seems to dominate begins around that June 7th and dominates into that early portion in the mid portion of June. That sticks around for quite a while. So, the pattern's going to flip around that June 7th time frame to humid and perhaps more active with heightened chances of perhaps severe weather as well. This happens every year, nothing new here. Speaking of severe weather, the next chance that we're seeing close to us is now being highlighted as a very, very low-end probability per the CSU learning model.

[00:08:13]It has a 5% probability shown across the Ohio Valley, technically not in Michigan, but there is plenty of storm field to work with around that Saturday time frame here in Michigan, especially South Michigan. Would not rule out a few storms that would move through around that time frame. So, we're going to watch it carefully. We're still about 6 days out from it. We're not going to lock it in, but it is worth watching and monitoring as we get closer. At very least, expect a chance of increased storms around that next weekend time frame. That is your video today, guys.

[00:08:45]Appreciate you guys sticking with me. I may take tomorrow off just because it's June 1st. We did a daily video every single day here in the month of May or a live stream.

[00:08:55]So, with that being said, enjoy the day.

[00:08:57]It's going to be nice next couple of days, and then late next week, pattern does flip. So, with that said, be safe, enjoy your day.

[00:09:06]I'll see you guys catch you guys either tomorrow or on Tuesday.