Live: Sensex, Nifty slip up to 4% in 4 days; Brent above $106/bbl | Closing Bell

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[00:01:14]Hello and welcome back to money controls live stream. You're watching closing bell with me Lisha Darad and the sell-off continues. Markets continue to sink throughout the day itself and in the last hour or so we have seen an uptick in the crude oil prices with Brent which is now hovering nearly around that $107 per barrel. While uh the pressure on the rupee continues, it's hit a fresh record low of 95.7 against the US dollar. So yes, uh on the headline indine indices front, uh the riskoff sentiment is quite uh imminent. You can see that Sensex has tumbled by about nearly 1500 points and Nifty has also breached way past that 23400 mark. So yes, we did come off uh from that 23450 and now 23400 has also been taken off uh at this point of time. And of course the market breath that's severely injured. You can see that the uh declines have been outpacing advances by a huge margin and that's why you can see that the you know riskoff sentiment and of course the sell-off has hit the broader end of the markets as well. We've seen both the mid nifty midcap and small cap indices that has been reeling under pressure tumbling anywhere between 2 to 3%. Uh while it's the third day fall for the midcap index it's the second day fall for the small cap basket as well. So yes, you know, India wicks back above that 19 odd levels showcasing that markets clearly have been nervous and seeing intense volatility not just on the back of the higher crude prices but of course the kind of stalemate there is between US and Iran and Trump calling the state of seas fire as unbelievably weak and he's even called Iran's counter proposal to end the conflict as garbage. So yes, plenty of elements which is uh played uh playing uh as a fall for the markets and of course it's the weekly expiry day for the n contracts which is also weighing in uh the sentiment as well. But yes, let's take a quick check of how the sectoral indexes have been panning out.

[00:03:07]Nifty it has been feeling the heat throughout the day. The index has hit a fresher three-year low and even nifty realy index that has seen a fall of about 4%. So both of these indices um you know have been one of the worst sectoral performers of the day as well.

[00:03:22]Uh so yes you know apart from that we did see some initial gains from the oil and gas sector where we see upstream players such as OGC oil India they have done well on account of government's royalty cut but you can see that oil and gas has also slipped back into the negative territory contributing to the fall of the overall market as well. Oil and gas index down by about 210 of a percent. downstream stocks for instance your BPCL, IOC, HPCL, they're anywhere down between 1 to 2%. So yes, you know, uh there's a broad-based sell off across the markets and all of them have been uh down with significant cuts as well.

[00:03:56]Let's take a quick check of how the gainers and losers look like on the Nifty50 front. You can see about 46 stocks have declined versus only four stocks which have been hovering uh in the green. Uh right now if you refresh the screen, of course, only two stocks are right there on your screen on the green. That's your ONGC and Hindulko. uh OMGC of course it's doing well on the back of the government's royalty cut but apart from that Hindalo with mild bit of gains and you know all of them in the losers front uh at this point of time so yes amongst the losers uh let's take a quick check you can see Adani ports that's one of the top nifty losers that's showcasing a decline for about 4 and a half% Shiram finance also so showcasing a decline for about 4 and a half% tech Mahindra a lot of IT stocks have been dominating the list uh given that Open AAI has launched a new uh you know deployment app uh where which is what is uh spooking the street sentiment on once again on the AI disruption uh fears as well. Um so yes all of these IT stocks tech Mahindra down by about 4% tech down anywhere about by about 4% as well TCS Vipro all of them remaining one of the top nifty lagards at this particular hour Titan also seeing a drag that's that stock is also down by about 3 and a half% LA we did see in yesterday's trading session a lot of jewelry stocks was down given that uh you know we did see PM's comments on curbing the gold buying so yes Titan once again extending the loss to about another day but yes let's quickly understand you know how the last minutes of the trade looks like how you should be positioned and what stocks did grab limelight in today's trading session I'll quickly go across to Ashish Bahiti who's a technical and derivative research analyst at profit mark securities joining us Ashish good afternoon so good to have you back nifty down for the fourth straight day and of course um not just the higher crude oil prices but it's the weekly expiry which is playing a spoil sport I mean what's the key trigger that you're watching from here on and in terms of levels what are you watching out for >> good afternoonisha it's been a tough day for the nifty in fact I'll say a tough week so far nifty is almost down 800 points in this week uh since Monday and uh there's no spite even at these points we were assuming that 23 400 will act as a support however uh it was very easy for the bears to take down that level also and the way nifty it has fallen that's like a bad I mean for nifty it was just a bad day for nifty IT it's it's the worst uh uh I'll say month so far nifty is again back to its 52- week low zone and a crucial level of 58 28200 is is being again challenged and if that gets broken on nifty IT we may even see 26,000 on the charts so another 10% fall is very much possible in nifty IT if 28 200 is taken out so the main culprit in in today's fall has been certainly in the nifty IT which is like almost 4% and along with that the overall sentiment has been really bad. The way currency has moved surpassed 90 almost 95 950 it has cross 9550 and now it's almost trading near 9570. So that's a very big negative and we've seen a big reversal in the Reliance also. Last week we have seen some support from the Reliance and the entire index. However, that stock has already given up all most uh uh uh most of the gain which it's made during the May session. So now again back to 1360 which is acting as a strong dragger for the market overall. Uh so from the nifty perspective uh the next support level is circling 23200. If that gets broken we even may see 20 to 700. So hopefully 23 200 gets uh is gets respected on the downfall. Uh while talking about Nifty Bank, Nifty Bank uh it's it's a little bit of a better compared to Nifty. Uh comparatively Nifty Bank is better placed. However, there's a lot of weakness here also in the way HDFC and most of these private banks are also collapsing in today's trade which looks a bit alarming. But however, Nifty Bank support is nearby.

[00:08:07]So it's near 53,000. There's a strong support of Nifty Bank. So we are hoping this fall may get arrested near 53,000 and we may see some bounce back from that zone.

[00:08:19]>> Okay. Right. Ashish rightly you were pointing out out about IT companies Infosys DCS all of these large and midcap peers have been trading with losses and this is coming in on the back of open AI you know launching that open AI deployment company as well. uh what's your take here in terms of large caps of course uh I mean do you see further fall or how does this chart structure look like to you going ahead >> think most of these large capies are not at all just trading at their 52- week low some of them are even trading at their 3 years low so they wiped out all their gains which they have made in last 3 years so if just talking about TCS uh TCS is back to 2300 that's the uh same level where it was in almost uh 2020 uh September 2020 it was the zone where TCS worth was at. So it has given up all the gains it made in last 6 years. That's little bit of concern for uh a broader market as or poll because if the nifty slowdown happens there'll be certainly going to be a ripple effect entire in the entire economy in the way these companies are not able to sustain I mean there's no uh valuation uh is not looking attractive at these prices also there's a bit of concern uh so there clearly the earnings and as well as the chartically also even at these levels there's a massive selling going on and there's a strong short buildup uh is happening at these levels. So there's no fresh shot is advised uh on most of these IT companies but however we are strictly avoiding any sort of long call in both midcap and long cap IT.

[00:09:53]>> Okay. All right. You're avoiding for the time being you know Aish let's move on and talk about OGC All India shares because they have relatively fared well and this is coming in after the government announced rationalization of royalty for the upstream sector. Now you know the center has reduced royalty rates on the production of crude oil and uh natural grass uh from several categories of fields which includes the deep water and ultra deep water blocks as well and this is why the stocks have been doing quite well today. Ashish, what's your call here? You know the crude oil prices continues to remain near that $107 per barrel. Does that make their prospects any stronger for the near term?

[00:10:32]Yeah. So Lisha has rightly pointed out by them that both of them are very dependent on the crude prices and we've seen the crude itself has been very volatile and uh it's been driven a lot by the news rather than the fundamentals right now and these both of these stocks are also high beta compared to the nifty uh so both and oil India and so these stocks are not suitable for the conservative traders but however aggressive traders should go long because there's a strong long buildup happening in both of these stocks and if I talk about OGC again it is heading back to that crucial resistance area of 300 and if that's gets broken we may see even 320 on the charts on the downside there's a strong support which has been established near 285 uh for oil India I think the kind of rally has already done 7 7 and a2% a fresh long is not advised because the risk return is not favorable for the fresh long perspective But anybody's holding long should stay uh hold it for uh the rally to continue till 525.

[00:11:39]On the downside, one should keep a stop loss near 470.

[00:11:44]>> Okay. All right. 470 as a stop loss for this particular counter. Let's move on and talk about JSW Energy shares. That stock is showcasing a decline of about 6 and a half% nearly 7% decline coming in.

[00:11:55]And this is coming in after uh multiple brokerages. They have raised concerns over the company's elevated debt levels, expensive valuations and pressure on profitability despite uh what we saw in operational strong growth performance in the March quarter. Now uh the company has reported uh you know strong growth in the in terms of their revenue as well as a bita but uh you know brokerage firms such as JP Morgan they have highlighted that the the rising debt and higher fixed cost could weigh on their earnings over the near term which is why the stock has been down by about nearly 6 and a half% as well. Ashish what's your call for JSW energy significant breakdown today the stock has been hovering around that you know 518 odd levels what can we watch out next >> see the energy and power sector was the first one which was shown which shown strength during this reversal trend of nifty and bank nifty and J energy was well placed in that and we seeing you know a significant rise in last since uh April first week uh stock was trading almost at uh near to 460 and we've seen stocks riding up to 580 but this today's uh candle or I'll say this weak candle has given up almost it's months of gain and there's a strong reversal now on the downside so a fresh shot can be initiated here or any pullback can be used as a shorting opportunity in the stock one should keep a stop loss near 540 and this stock may slide back to 490 kind of a zone pretty soon >> okay all right that's the cue for JSW energy as well. Now let's uh move on and take some of the stocks that was well analyzed by our MC Pro team throughout the day itself. We'll first discuss about Heritage Foods that's declined sharply in today's trading session.

[00:13:41]Right now if you look at the stock price that's down by about 7% and we've seen that this is coming in after its Q4 results underscored sustained margin pressure amid elevated raw material PI prices and weaker procurement volumes.

[00:13:56]uh if you look at number wise revenue grew at about a modest of 10% on a yon basis but margins that contracted severely by about 300 basis points on a von basis as well. Now what the team has analyzed is that there is a continued milk supply tightness and a challenging operating backdrop which has kept the profitability under strain as well. But yes coming to you Ashish from a chart perspective and from a technical angle what are you watching out for heritage foods uh the stock is seeing a significant breakdown and we have seen that the stock has slipped way below that 400 mark.

[00:14:29]Yeah. So yesterday we've seen a good rise in the stock and today again there was a strong reversal uh compared to yesterday's uh four 4 and a half% kind of up. So uh stock is looking weak on the charts right now and may even touch 330 in a short span of time. So one should stay cautious. Anybody's holding long should strictly keep a stop loss near 348. If that gets broken one should strictly exit the stock. Yeah.

[00:14:56]>> Okay. stop losses as 348. That's for Heritage Foods. Let's move on and talk about the next stock that the team has tracked today. That's your Jodi Labs.

[00:15:05]That stock has crashed nearly about 15% in the past two sessions. And of course, we've seen that the moves have coming in after Henkil exited the key licensing agreements. Now, Henkil will not be renewing PRL and FAR brand agreements beyond May 2026. And we have seen that PR has contributed about uh 12 to 15% of the company's overall topline creating a portfolio uncertainty. That's what the team have team has been highlighting as well. So yes Ashish two days and the stock has seen a severe fall. What lies ahead?

[00:15:38]>> So stock is certainly looking really weak on the charts and we've seen last week it was trading near 270 and this week now it's almost close to 230. So uh quite a bit of falling in couple of trading sessions itself and even this fall is not getting arrested here and may even touch uh 210 on the downside.

[00:15:58]So uh anybody's holding long should uh try and exit on any pullback.

[00:16:04]>> Okay. All right. That's the cue for Joti Labs. And finally let's move on to uh the fracted analytics shares that MC Pro team has analyzed. uh given that the stock did see some gains in the initial part of the trading session but it has succumbed to the broad-based selloff that is there in the markets but yes number wise this the company has fared well in terms of their March quarter performance revenue has risen by about 4% on a sequential basis 17% on an annual basis profit has increased by about 16% uh on a sequential basis and more than doubled on a vonby basis even going ahead the management has indicated that FI27 revenue Revenue growth is expected to be stronger than FI26. Uh and that would be supported by improving demand trends and the normalization in its telecom media and technology vertical as well. Ashish, what's your call? Fractal analyt analytics. Um how does the stock look like from a near-term perspective?

[00:17:00]So yeah, it's been it's a pretty new IPO and trend and we remember as far as I remember it was listed got listed at 900 uh was the issue price and got listed below this issue price but we've seen a good uh upswing uh after the listing in stock headed almost close to 1100 there's bit of uh reversal in today's trading session but however as long as is 1,000 level is is getting pulled uh uh I mean there's strong support near th00and If that's gets broken, one should try and exit this stock.

[00:17:33]>> Okay. All right. That's the cure for fractal analytics. But yes, let's talk about another stocks which have secured significant order books today and which is why these have these stocks have been doing well. That's your AFCON's infrastructure and energy infraine.

[00:17:47]Uh these stocks gained anywhere up to 8% in intraday session. But yes, the stocks have relatively cooled off. Uh but yes, they did announce some major project wins. For instance, AFCONS said that they have received a client communication uh proposed award for about 7500 cr rupees. Uh HG Infra also said that they have received a letter of award from Wellspun Enterprises and the order is worth about 3,900 cr rupees which is a highway project in Maharashtra as well. So yes, both the stocks relatively in the green uh despite the kind of a pressure and of course the tepid moves that we are seeing in the markets. Ashish, what's your call? Of course the stocks have been doing well on the back of the news flow but can they sustain this momentum?

[00:18:29]>> See this chart on charts the stock is showing a a strength and we seeing the charts are also showing a relative strength compared to the what the market has been in last couple of trading sessions. There's not much of profit taking happening here so far. So uh AFCON is looking good on the charts. On the downside uh one should keep a stop loss near 310. On the upside, if the market recovers, the stock may head up to 370.

[00:18:55]Uh for AG Infra, it is also looking good on the charts. So there's a strong support near 600. On the upside, one may keep a potential target of 700.

[00:19:08]>> Okay. All right. 700 as a potential target for G Infra. All right. Let's move on and talk about Indian hotels. Uh because this particular stock has also seen some bit of a pressure today. uh despite a good set of earnings uh that slightly beatd what the street was anticipating. Uh profit increased by about 16% on a year-on-year basis.

[00:19:26]Revenue was up by about 14%. EITA rose by about 13 1.5% but margins that is where the pain was felt because that contracted marginally on a vanby basis.

[00:19:36]But the stock is uh down by about 4% and we have seen that uh in the past one month also the stock has fairly been rangebound itself. Ashish show what's your call? Indian hotels.

[00:19:48]>> Yeah. So as a disclaimer, we have given a short call on this Indian hotel to our clients also and they may have a position in this stock right now. Uh so it's really looking weak on the charts and the way stock has reacted to its number. Uh our next potential target for Indian hotel is 650. Uh one should now trail the SL near 650 and hold the shorts.

[00:20:13]>> Okay. All right. That's the cue for Indian hotels. Let's move on and talk about Orientan Pro Solutions. That stock is seeing a severe downfall of about 12% after the company reported a weak set of Q4 numbers. Revenue and operating profit that declined uh on a sequential basis and margins have slipped to its lowest levels in the last couple of years which is why the street has been quite nervous on this particular counter. 12% fall that's where we've been observing right now and it's a significant breakdown on the charts as well. Ashish, what's your call here? Uh would you remain cautious at the current levels?

[00:20:48]>> Uh yeah. So Lisha, can you just repeat the stock name once again?

[00:20:52]>> Orient Pro. Orient Pro.

[00:20:54]>> Okay. Uh yes. So stock is looking a weak on the charts. Uh yeah. Uh yes, stock is looking weak on the charts and it may even head up to uh 740 kind of a zone. So anybody's holding short uh just continue to remain short stay short by keeping a stop loss near 775.

[00:21:20]>> Okay, 775 uh as the next uh you know 775 is the next resistance zone for Orient Pro. All right, let's move on and talk about some of the household appliance stocks as well. For instance, your uh butterfly Gandhi mati appliances that stock is up by about 15 and a half percent. TTK prestige even this stock has been doing quite well today. And of course, this is coming in on the back of some heavy volumes in an otherwise weak market as well. Ashish, what's your call today? Of course, you know, earlier we did hear PM's comments about conservation of energy and all of these household appliances stocks have have been doing well. What's your call here? I mean, do they look attractive at the current levels?

[00:22:03]Uh certainly again we've seen in the past also there was a spike in these stocks uh at the start of the war and then there was a bit of pull off but again today's trading session has been a little bit of different because we've seen a price action volumes is taking place here so butterfly Gandhi may even hit del 790 on the upside on the downside there's a strong support near 680 about TTK prestige this is also looking good on the chart and there's a bit of reversal but however in today's trading session if we see uh there was a bit of profit taking happen TDK besties uh so uh one should stay remain cautious here because the uh price on the upper level couldn't sustain and there was we've seen a bit of profit taking in this stock right now >> all right some profit taking could be on visible uh down the line that's the key takeaway but yes let's move on and talk about Saskin technologies uh this particular stock has here you hit a fresh 52- week high post its Q4 numbers and right now the stock is also doing well. Uh the company has declared 13 rupees as a dividend for FI27 and we've seen that revenue has grown grown more than doubled uh from a Y and basis. Net profit has also more than doubled on a Y basis which is why the stock is seeing a good reaction today. 11 and a half% gains coming in for there. Ashish, what's your call? Do you think it's a buy at the current levels and of course it's uh after its Q4 numbers?

[00:23:31]>> So yeah, this strong reaction stock is shown after the numbers. However, uh one I mean stock is already up 11 11 and a half%. So it's a little off the charts right now. Uh the risk reward is not favorable to go long. However, if anybody's holding long just trail the SL to 1770 on the upside even 1950 kind of level is possible.

[00:23:56]Okay. All right. That's for your Saskin technologies. But yes, you know, let's talk about the broad end of the markets.

[00:24:00]They have been reeling under significant pressure right now. If you look at the levels, Nifty Medcap is down anywhere around uh two 2% as well as for the small caps for that matter, that's seeing a significant pressure of about 3% as well. We'll just get to uh the close in just a couple of seconds. Uh but yes, Sajish, what's your call here for the broader end of the markets? Of course, there's a significant pressure here which is emerging and we've seen that fairly that was cushioning the markets but now they're also seeing a free fall.

[00:24:30]>> So the entire market is really looking weak and we are not advising any fresh long or one should not try to catch a falling in fear. Uh however on the stock side one can go long on Barti at that is looking good on the charts. uh by keeping a stop loss near 1740. On the upside, we're expecting stock to head back to 1820 kind of a level.

[00:24:52]>> Okay. All right. That's the key takeaway. But yes, the last rates right coming on your screen where Nifty is seeing a severe downfall of about nearly 400 points. 1 and a half% decline coming in for the index level. It's breached way below that 23450 mark as well. But yes, on the Sensex level front uh the 1200 points downtick coming in. Of course, we're seeing a bit of a recovery from the day's low levels, but still uh we've ended quite significantly with deeper cuts. Sensex also down by about nearly 1300 points. 1 and a half% decline coming in for Sensex as well.

[00:25:24]But yes, apart from that, let's take a quick check of how the Bank Nifty has done. Bank Nifty is also down uh below that 54,000 mark uh with about nearly uh 700 points decline coming in for there.

[00:25:36]a percent decline. Nifty midcap index seeing a decline of about 1,400 points and yeah you know it's settled with about 2% loss as well. Apart from that even small caps have been feeling the heat. That's the index is down by about 3%. And the nervousness is visible given that the India Wix continues to remain at elevated levels of about 19. Apart from that all the sectoral indices have settled the day in the negative territory. Beat your nifty auto, IT, media, metal, pharma, all of these indices have been seeing uh significant pressure today. Nifty IT index like we was uh you know we were talking about earlier that particular index has seen a bit of a pressure today. 3% decline coming in for there and we've seen a majority of the constituents also ending in the negative territory as well. Apart from that, Nifty realy also settling the day with about 4% loss. Uh then you have your nifty metal index which is uh you know you know fairly outperformed how the uh the uh other benchmarks have been behaving. Nifty metal that's down by about two 210 ten of a percent decline.

[00:26:39]Pharma index with about 1% loss.

[00:26:41]Consumer durables with about 3 and a half% cut and you can see FMCG also showcasing a decline of about a percent as well. So yes all in all it looks like a very negative day for the markets and of course a tough day for the bulls to actually keep a pace. But yes, let's take a check of how the gainers and losers are doing in a market like this.

[00:27:01]Only two uh only four advances from the nifty large caps front and you can see the likes of OGC that is that stock has done well with about 4 and a.5% gains.

[00:27:12]Hindalo with about 1% gains. SBI also doing well in a market like this with about you know 1% uh gains coming in for there as well. Bharti Atel flat but with a positive bias uh for the market like this but it's on the losers front you can see finance tech Mahindra Adani ports geo financial tech all of them seeing declines of about 4% each DCS as well Adani enterprises remain the other top nifty losers at this particular hour of course the IT index has been feeling the severe part of the heat given the kind of you know given that open AAI has launched its deployment app And uh this is what has kept the street nervous given that u the company said that it is aimed to design or or help the organizations with uh with uh the AI system. So yes the traditional IT players are being questioned whether or not the billable hours and the of course the u the u IT models of there could comp compress from here on. This is something we'll be understanding later in the segment as well. But yes coming back to you Ashish uh for Adani Enterprises. This is one of the top nifty losers today. What's your call here from a near-term perspective?

[00:28:24]>> See, uh stocks were the one which were almost heading the entire rally and they were there was they were leading the rally on the upside. However, we have seen that today a bit of reversal and a good profit taking trading session.

[00:28:40]However, still there's no fresh shot can be initiated here. On the downside, there's a strong support near 2350.

[00:28:47]So uh anybody's holding long should keep a stop loss near that zone.

[00:28:52]>> Okay. Got it. Got it. All right. Just one last question before I let you go.

[00:28:56]Ashish, what are your top picks at this hour? Any investment or stock trading ideas that you have for us?

[00:29:01]>> So barti edel is our top pick at this point of time. Uh one can go long here by keeping a stop loss near 1740 for the next upside target of 1840.

[00:29:13]>> Okay. All right. Byel is something that you'll be watching out for. All right.

[00:29:16]All right. So sure with that we have to let you go but thank you so much for your time and of course joining us.

[00:29:25]All right fairly the markets have been uh deeply in the red. Both the headline indexes have seen a fall of about one and a half% each. Broad end of the markets definitely also contributing to the losses. Midcap index down for the third consecutive day. Small cap index down for the second consecutive day. And of course you can see that the declines in the market breath has been outpacing the advances by a very wide margin as well. And yes in the last couple of uh hours we have seen that the Brent crude oil prices that has inched up. That's uh right now if you look at the Brent crude oil prices that's hovering around that $107 per barrel. You know 3% uh gains coming in for the Brent crude prices as well. Of course, there's an impass which has been reached between US and Iran where uh Iran has rejected the counter proposal which was sent in by Iran and US President Donald Trump has also termed uh Iran's proposal as a complete garbage which is what has kept the ceasefire between the two parties on a very you know on a very fragile note for the time being and which is why we can see that there is a riskoff sentiment which is prevalent in the markets not just the crude oil prices even the rupee has hit a fresh record low of about 95.7 against the US dollar and we'll watch out what the next moves are going to be in terms of the markets as well. But yes, in just a couple of minutes, you know, we'll be also getting the uh April CPI inflation data uh where we did see that the CNBC TV18 poll uh did forecast a month-on-month increase on the level of consumer inflation print. So, we'll get you more details on how it looks like and of course, you know, what it means for a market like this going ahead as well. But yes, you know, let's quickly go go across to my second guest of the show to talk more about markets and of course what lies ahead. Uh joining me is Hershel Dasani who's the business head of Inviset PMS. Hershel, good afternoon. So good to have you back and markets clearly on a free fall. In just 4 days, we have seen that Nifty has shed about 800 points. So what's your take with what is happening and what are you tracking next?

[00:31:25]>> Good afternoon Lavisha and good afternoon to the viewers of Money Control. Thank you so much for having me. Uh as you mentioned that the Iran and the USD is on a very fragile note and so is crude. If you look at crude, crude is ranging right now somewhere between 90 to $110. On every positive news, we are seeing crude move between a range of 100 to 90 and after every negative news, we are seeing crude moving up above 100 as we are right now at 107. until anything meaningful happens in terms of attack the crude is not going to spike up above 100 I think $110 and if any meaningful deal is made until then the crude is not going to below go below the $90 mark so I personally feel that right now markets are stuck in a range they keep going up there's a small dip that comes in after some negative news is announced but overall I feel that the markets are a buy on dip at the end of the day this all war is going to settle up it's going to take some time but overall the markets have already discounted the thing and they've already started moving up. Uh on every small dip you see right now we seeing a buying sentiment coming in except for the last few days we just saw a little bit of selloff coming in but overall if you look at uh the SIP inflows they are already at their peak markets is doing really well and right now markets is stuck between three headwinds right now. One is crude being above $100. Second major I think the headwind right now for the markets is the rupee weakling. If you uh if you look at rupee right now rupee has made a fresh low of 95.7 as you were mentioning and till rupee keeps getting weakened uh we're going to have some difficult time in the market fi are constantly pulling out money and on top of that we had PM's announcement that he had recently on the ashurityity messaging that he was giving three of these factors are together ranging as a headwind which is stop topping markets to make a new high but overall if you look at the glob Global markets right now global markets are in the middle of a massive bull run. You see Cosby, Cosby is I think up 220% since September 2024. September 2024 is that month when Indian markets had made their all-time high. That is Nifty, Bank, Nifty, Midcap, Small Cap, all the major indexes had made their highs on September 2024. If you look at the markets from there, Cosby is up 220%.

[00:33:42]From there, Taiwan is up around 80%.

[00:33:45]Japan is up around 50%. If you look at NASDAQ itself, NASDAQ, NASDAQ is up around I think 30 to 35%. And the semiconductor basket of NASDAQ that is socks that is how you track them. It is it has shot up from 200 rupees to 550 rupees. So it's not that there's not a buying in the global markets. There is a clear buying in the global markets. But we need to understand the sectors where the buying is focused right now. The buying is purely and purely focused towards AI and semiconductor stocks. And in India, we do not have anything that is even close to that. The only thing that could have got closer to that is Nifty IIT. And Nifty is right now down 40% from its all-time high. So overall, I think Indian markets are lagging the sector that is pulling up the bull markets for the entire world. And until it does not do any pivot towards AI or we have something meaningful towards semiconductor, we are going to see the sell off continue. You look at Nifty today. Nifty has a major component of it and it is on a constant selloff. That is one of the major reasons why Nifty is not able to pull off. I think one announcement that came in from Claude's Anthropic and the Nifty IT is down around 4%. And that is not just with Indian Nifty IT. You look at any service company in US for example a company like Salesforce. Salesforce is down 50% from its all-time high right now. Any business which can get disrupted by AI is going to have a little difficult time ahead because AI is replacing things. We are seeing a large number of layoffs coming in. That is also going to hit the urban consumption down as we speak. So I personally think that Indian markets they have not performed in a very long time. Now I think it's 2 years sideways consolidation. We've done time and price correction. But the major pulling up machine that we need that is AI and semiconductor stocks. We do not have any of them in our country right now. So as of now I am bullish on the markets. Uh considering that they have not performed but if you ask me that they are going to give you some massive returns from here.

[00:35:46]We have to be very selective on the sectors. You cannot just bet on Nifty or the small cap index pulling up some great returns for you.

[00:35:54]>> Okay. Okay. But you know you know expanding on the IT debate. I mean earlier this year we saw that Enthropic had launched a few of the plugins and that is what created an entire disruption in the entire IT pack itself and now they have launched an open AI deployment system where they plan to partner with several of the you know investment firms and consultancies as well. Do you think uh I mean does this completely bypass then the traditional Indian IT vendors going ahead?

[00:36:23]>> Absolutely it completely completely bypass what we have been doing. So for example right now uh companies like Infosys, TCS, Vipro, HCL, Tech Mahindra these five companies we call the big five giants of Indian IT just figure just take out the number of amount of buybacks that they have done since 2016.

[00:36:42]If you look at the amount of buyback that we have done in the last I think 7 8 years it is more than three and a half lakh crores. So at this point of time these companies when AI run started instead of investing when do you do a buyback when the company does not see an opportunity where they can invest their money Indian it had the biggest opportunity of the decade that is AI and the semiconductor move that we were saying but right now we did multiple buybacks you look at Infosys Infosys did a couple of buybacks at a price that is 30% higher than what it is right now so the problem is that we have completely missed the bus and that is why you see that on A small announcement from anthropic company is announcing and nifty it the five biggest companies they are just the top five that I'm talking about you have persistent you have co-force you have billow so multiple midcap companies and small cap companies are wiping off their market cap on a small announcement by a company that I'm doing this so this is the power of AI because right now what is the cost you see why do we have layoffs happening the layoffs are happening because it is getting replaced simply by a few tokens that are just consuming a few cents of electricity and right now we are able to replace the expensive labor by just putting up supercomputers and expensive AI tools which are consuming fraction of power that is the fraction of cost on what we used to play to the employees. So I think right now this uh disruption that is happening is going to lead until AI pivots until the Indian it pivots towards AI I don't think that we'll see this selling stopping any small buying that comes in is just going to be a pullback because once you see another announcement it's if you look at Sam Alman's statement what is he saying that AI is going to get faster with time it's going to get cheaper with time and it's going to get better with time so the problem that we have right now that it is not fast enough. It is very costly. It's all going to go down. So, every single day, every single week, we are coming up with new things that are disrupting businesses out there. You look at Adobe, Adobe was one of the biggest business in terms of photo editing. Right now, they screwed up.

[00:38:49]They're around 50% from their all-time high. If you look at Salesforce, Salesforce is down around 50 55% from their alltime high. AI has not technically hit India right now because we've been a little slow in adopting AI but I'm sure that not right now maybe 6 months from now once the AI adoption comes at that point of time you're going to see a lot of other businesses getting disrupted is going to take a big hit on the urban consumption as well.

[00:39:14]>> Okay. So for a market like this what does it mean? I mean, you know, earlier we were talking about uh Nifty hitting a fresh all-time high, that looks like a bleak picture. And now with a fresh AI disruption fears, does it even get compounded from here on?

[00:39:29]>> Well, if you ask me and if you bifocate the sectors right now, uh we are already expecting a less rainfall this year, 92% of the average that we used to get. So, the rural demand is expected to slow down. Now, on top of that, we are having massive layoffs. And I'm telling you, we are at the tip of the iceberg. We've not even started layoffs. The layoff wave is going to come and it's going to be it's going to come big and very fast. People are going to face a lot of problems with this. And after that, the biggest problem that is going to come is on the urban consumption. And as soon as you hit the urban consumption, you see a slowdown in auto and real estate.

[00:40:03]Because now people who are struggling with their jobs are not going to go out there and buy auto are not going to go out there and buy real estate. The real estate market is expected to slow down.

[00:40:13]The auto market is expected to slow down. Consumption overall is going to slow down. And now if you look at nifty as a whole, its banks, its IT, it is auto and reliance. Auto and I think uh it is already it is already I think in a downtrend. Auto has posted great numbers last year because of the GST cut that we had. Two wheelers and four wheelers have posted amazing sales. But now when the quarter 2 and quarter 3 results will come for this year do you think that we'll be able to match the same kind of results that they had posted last year are we because the base that we have set up last year is very high and to match that base it is going to be very difficult because we do not have a GST like tailwind right now and plus these companies if you look uh the OEMs they have not passed on the cost the raw material cost hike because of the war to the customers so their margins are already shrinking though they are selling high volumes But their margins are shrinking now at this point of time if they get a hit on their volume as well. It's going to be a little difficult time for autos I think ahead specifically four wheelers because of the urban consumption hitting in terms of two wheelers I think because of the rural consumption hitting because of the rain problem. I think uh even two wheeler market is going to go for a little difficult time. Now the sectors that I think could do really well after this is India does not technically we need to get this clear that India does not have any semiconductor or AI specific company that is purely and purely focusing on it right now. So where we can bet we can bet on the proxy that is maybe power right now power is a great proxy to AI data centers and second I think metals metals come metal companies like somebody in copper mining or somebody in silver mining they are I think the biggest proxies that you could have for AI playing in India. So I think a couple of sectors are going to benefit. See every disruption that comes always opens up doors for a few sectors that are going to do really well and it's going to disrupt out a few sectors like completely. So I think power and your power is power and metals are about to do really well. I think auto has been performing very well but auto will stop somewhere because matching out the numbers for last year is going to be very difficult and with the slowdown in urban consumption auto is also going to take a hit. So overall I think the bets that we place from here need to be very specific. They need to be very well understood because consumption is the base for everything.

[00:42:44]If the consumption gets hit then you will see sell off in major sectors even if the global markets are performing.

[00:42:52]>> Okay. Got it. Then um you know Hel that gives me you know another question that you know how should investors then position themselves when it comes to the tech sector because on one hand we have two moving parts. We have valuations which are at you know historical below the historical long-term averages but the growth visibility continues to remain weak. We are at the low single digits and it looks like the AI disruption is going to take some time for uh for our Indian IT to get adapted to but still you know we always uh we always look at the markets at you know they are going to be forward-looking. So at this point of time what should investors do when they look at the Indian IT sector?

[00:43:29]Well, if I talk about Indian IT today, okay, uh let's open up a con call of maybe Infosys or DCS. What is the management speaking? The management is speaking that we are expected to grow at 1 and a half to three and a half% ahead.

[00:43:43]Okay. So now when I say a growth of 1 and a half to three and a half%.

[00:43:48]What is the PE multiple that I should be deserving?

[00:43:52]These ID companies are right now sitting at a PE multiple of 20. They're at a double-digit price to earning multiple.

[00:43:58]I'm talking in very basic fundamentals.

[00:44:00]I'm not even getting into what their business is and what AI is doing. I'm just talking what the management is speaking and where the company sits at in terms of the basic valuation metrics that is P. Today these companies are sitting at a double digit PE. Whereas they are expecting a growth of 1 and a half to three and a half%. And it's not an upscaling growth. We had expected three and a half to 4 and a2% for Infosys from there we are down to 1 and a half to three and a half%. Until the management management is the jockey until the management comes out and says that we are pivoting towards and more than saying you start looking at them the number of buybacks they should stop they should start investing that money into probably the AI thing until they do that I don't see any turnaround for IT companies maybe people say that oh IT companies are right now in a valuation zone value zone because they have corrected maybe 30 40% from their all-time highs but if you compare compare them in terms of basic multiples they're trading at a double-digit multiple at a singledigit growth and today these IT companies are standing up because of the massive DII inflows you open up uh the shareholding patterns of maybe Infosys and TCS right now FIS have been constantly dumping them constantly quarter on quarter like for example I am a foreign institutional investor and I have an option to invest into AI and semiconductors via Nvidia and via TCS what am I going to choose it's the choice is very simple. So FIS have been constantly pulling out money today you see Indian IT just down by 40% and not maybe down by 50 to 60%. The only reason behind that is the passive inflow from the domestic institutional investors.

[00:45:40]You open up the shareholding pattern for basic infosys or TCS. FIS have been a constant sellers. DIS have been a constant buyers and I don't know for what joy are we buying these companies at this valuation by the mutual funds because investing institutional investors are technically a mutual fund.

[00:45:56]So these companies are holding up these levels today technically because the mutual funds are aggressively buying them. Once the mutual funds stop buying them then these companies are going to have a very difficult time. And that is the point. See we I'm very optimistic. I hope that these companies take that turnar around because now they have corrected a lot. Any small minute movement towards AI is also going to uh you know get a significant pullback. I hope that it happens but we need to see results. We need to see the management coming out and saying that the growth is expected to be at one and a half 2%.

[00:46:31]Maybe we are going to spend some time having a loss. We are investing into something like this. we are building up something of our own and that is when even on a loss these companies will show a significant bounce back. So I think we need that pivot.

[00:46:46]>> Got it. Got it. Got it. Harsh. Then you know at this point of time any sector any theme that you're finding attractive on the current levels we've seen significant selloff starting from uh you know the March 27 when the conflict started. We've seen a deeper correction both largely on the last large large caps front but both mid and small caps as well. anything that stood out to you after the Q4 results?

[00:47:08]>> Well, I think if you want to really understand which are the sectors that are going to do really well, you just need to look at the markets and you need to compare sectors with them. At this point of time, power as a sector has been doing phenomenally well. You look out at any DC power companies, you look out at basic power companies, they are all trading above their all-time high.

[00:47:28]And when I say above their all-time high, they are trading meaningfully above their all-time high. And not only about the September 2024 high, but they're just trading at a massive high right now. And even if you look at metal companies today, metal companies, the metal index itself has formed a new all-time high, whereas the Nifty and the small cap index is struggling. I think when you were just speaking, you just mentioned that the metal index was outperforming the overall markets even today. So you see when there's an overall sell off in the market the index itself is doing really well the smart money is already accumulating metals and power and I think the basic fundamental reason behind that is in India if you really want to play the AI and the semiconductor game there is not really a lot of options there out for you Taiwan Korea NASDAQ they've been doing very great companies have been doing really well over there but in India I think the nearest play that we can have is via the metal companies, via the power companies and maybe a little bit through silver.

[00:48:29]>> Okay, got it. Got it. I'll shift the focus uh to the royalty cut that was initiated by the government and which has got a sharp rerating and all of these upstream mains names. How meaningful is the royalty reduction for the likes of OMGC Oil India margins at the current crude oil prices?

[00:48:49]Well, I think the announcement that we had that the onshore crude royalty would be cut down from 17% to 10%. The offshore and the gas was trimmed. Ultra deep water uh gets almost zero re uh zero royalty for the first seven years.

[00:49:02]I think this is one of the single most uh important energy policy in the last decade. OGC and oil India I think both of them have sharply rallied today and overall I think that the upstream trades as a mid singledigit forward multiple with five to six% dividend yield I think it's very cheap globally and FY27 earnings I think are going to get uplifted by easily around 79% if the oil holds above $75 which I don't really want that to happen but if the oil manages to hold above $75 then I think that these companies are going to um have a lot benefit from it and I think this is one of the very good decisions that we have in terms of uh digging our own onshore crude programs. I think integrated energy with upstream exposure I think they are going to be the indirect winners of this and I think the sector overall is if this continues if the oil stays above $75 and if this strategy plays out I think they are all ready for a multi-year rerate.

[00:50:07]Okay, got it. Got it. Let's uh move to the gold and silver price trends. You know, we've seen the rupee under pressure, crude oil prices remaining at elevated levels. I mean, how much of an additional upside risk it exists for all of these bullion prices?

[00:50:22]>> Well, if you ask me, gold and silver, gold and silver should have outperformed during the time of this war. But the only reason why gold and silver have not been outperforming and they are falling down is because the crude has spiked up.

[00:50:33]And as soon as the crude spikes up, the inflation spikes up because crude is the raw material for everything. The smallest vegetable that you buy, the smallest bread that you buy, everything somehow is connected to crude oil because they get transported. So once the crude oil spikes, the inflation spikes and as soon as the inflation spikes, the rate cut chances, the Fed that was on a rate cut move, the RBI that was on a rate cut move, they all now we were figuring out whether there shouldn't be a rate hike instead of a rate cut. And because of that, I think gold and silver had a massive correction in them. But if you ask me, I think once the war is over and once US is out of this war, people will understand how deep has US gone into in terms of loans and in terms of money printing. And these central banks that are selling gold right now in order to pull up some dollars so that they can go and buy crude oil are all going to bounce back on gold tomorrow. So I think having gold on a dip during a war is like one of the best trades and one of the best opportunities to accumulate. Second, if you talk about silver, silver is going to I think play a very major role in terms of AI and semiconductors because again you're betting on the proxy. These chips, the semiconductors, they need somewhere a little bit of silver and this little bit of silver when you add up together it enters into a big chunk.

[00:51:56]So overall silver is in a shortage. We have seen 5 years of consecutive shortage and now the usage the demand is constantly increasing. So I think silver is about to do really well and the shortage is going to stay there for the next few years. I think even copper for crack copper is also going to do really very well because the copper prices I think are about to hit their all-time high. Even if you look at aluminium they're about to hit their all-time high. So overall metals are in a super cycle. They're led by gold and silver but I think copper and aluminium should also do well. crude. I think crude is very simple. Above $100, it's going to be a big problem for market. $90 to $100, markets are going to go into a fairly bullish consolidation, but anything below $90 is going to open up the way up for markets.

[00:52:41]>> H okay. Got it. Got it. You know, there was uh some recent comments around the curbing of uh gold imports which sparked a concern over possible duty hikes and of course uh the likes of the same. Do you think all of these policy uncertainty could affect uh the jewelry demand meaningfully going ahead?

[00:53:00]>> Well, I think yes because somewhere I think I have a lot of friends who are into jewelries. I keep talking to them uh because I'm personally very interested in gold and silver as a commodity. But when I keep talking to them, as the gold price increases or as the silver price increases, the demand for jewelry technically goes down and the government has been trying level best uh to you know reduce the imports because if you look at it right now the FY26 gold imports were up 24%. It's like around $72 billion and that is total 9% of our entire import bill and because of the current war situation that you see because the oil price have swung up at this point of time our forex reserves are down from 728 billions to around 690 billion. So we are already down 38 billions in 3 months.

[00:53:50]I think that the government has just requested right now in terms of please buy a little less gold but I think down the line if that does not happen. See it has happened twice in 2013 and in 1967 I think Indra Gandhi had announced that please buy less gold and what we saw after that we saw a massive rally in gold. So I think the gold prices are not going to stop here. uh it's an international commodity and looking at US right now and looking at US dollar I think the gold prices are going to go up and the government is trying to the government will try to slow down the gold by increasing the import duty on gold maximum that is what they can do right now but I don't think that even after that the gold prices are going to take a halt because the underlying commodity gold in terms of dollar is going to keep rising so I think yes it is going to be a problem for these jewelry uh companies and the jewelry makers Because when the gold prices rise, the demand automatically slows down. Maybe tomorrow if you're buying 12 g, you're going to buy 10 g. But again, India is a country where gold is a part of our habit. And looking at the wedding season that is going to come up, looking at Diwali that is going to come up, I don't think that the demand for gold is going to stop.

[00:55:03]>> Okay. Got it. Got it. All right. All right, Harshel, you know, with that we have to let you go, but thank you so much for your time and joining us and we're looking forward to more such conversations with you.

[00:55:13]>> Thank you so much. Thank you so much for having me. Thank you.

[00:55:16]>> Thank you. All right. You know, uh that's all we have for this edition of closing bell. It's been a tough day for the markets. We've seen that BSC listed companies have seen an MMC cap erosion of about 12 lakh cr rupees. And of course, we've seen that Nifty has cracked about 800 points in just the last four trading sessions. and rupee has hit a record low. So yes, you know, you know, quite a volatile session and of course we'll watch out how the rest of the week pans out. We'll get you more in terms of the earnings reaction, some stock specific action which will be taking place. Uh tomorrow we have companies such as Bhardi Lipla which will be reporting their Q4 results in just a bit. We'll also be getting you the April CPI inflation reading as well.

[00:55:55]So uh do look it up on our website as well and of course we'll be getting you how the markets are going to react on the back of this inflationary trends uh going ahead as well. But yes until then do stay tuned to Money Control. Uh for now it's a wrap from me.

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