Exit Polls 2026: From West Bengal To Tamil Nadu - What Are Exit Polls Predicting?

Ajouté : 2026-04-29

[00:00:03]Hello, welcome and good evening. You're watching HW News English. I am Shugam Chraan. Voting in the second phase for the state of West Bengal has just ended and all eyes are now on the exit polls.

[00:00:14]The much talked about, debated, controversial uh exit polls. It's that time when pollsters put out their numbers and their predictions of what could possibly happen on the 4th of May which is result day. Remember not just West Bengal there are five states in totality. So Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puzzer. So crucial states each of the state has a political chapter, a political narrative of its own. different uh politicians are putting their sort of careers on the line really in some of the states and the battles are really something that you cannot afford to miss. So today we will take you through in this live stream over the course of the next few minutes we will take you through what happened today which is the second phase of polling in West Bengal and what the numbers are so far and then we will gradually look at some of the exit polls that have come out uh in different states. We have not put out all the numbers for you. We will not bombard you with all numbers at once. What we have done is we've shortlisted uh some of the exit polls and what these pollsters are saying. Of course, the big u sort of health warning is that uh exit polls have gone wrong in the past multiple times. They've also gone right, but they also gone wrong. So, take these numbers that we will put out on the screen with a pinch of salt. So let's start with West Bengal first and what we saw today.

[00:01:44]Voting has concluded at about 6:00 p.m.

[00:01:47]and the final numbers are yet to come out. Uh what we are showing you right now is the data of phase one and phase two. So phase one of West Bengal 93.19% is what the final voting percentage was.

[00:02:03]In the second phase, the data turnout available, the voter turnout rather available at this point is of 5pm and 89.99%.

[00:02:12]So bumper voter turnout in both phases.

[00:02:14]Now expect that second phase number to go up once we get the final data from the election commission of India on that. If you look at the constituencies uh in phase two, West Bengal and uh the highest voting turnout so far has been in Pura Bardaman with 92.46% 46% and Kolkata souths the lowest at 86.11%.

[00:02:35]So even the lowest if you look at uh Kolkata south at 86.11 it's sort of more than some of the states that have put out a combined polling percentage for but again the big uh we we we'll go to the exit poll data just I'll just dwell on the voting percentage number that as far as West Bengal is concerned because that is something uh that has been debated and discussed especially after the election commission's special intensive revision remember more than 90 lakh voters have been deleted from West Bengal's voter list. So if you look at these numbers uh in that context what many experts have said that there is a low denominator effect because from the original voter list of West Bengal you take off 90 lakh names. So the sample size reduces and as a result of it you're seeing perhaps uh uh uh more voter turnout an increase in the voter turnout compared to the 2021 uh election. So that is one reading and one really doesn't know how this s will play out come result time. Who will it benefit? Who will it not? That is something that we'll have to wait uh and see on the 4th of May. But when you talk about the voter turnout in West Bengal particularly this is something this one factor the sir factor is something that needs to be kept in mind. So that was West Bengal today. Phase 2 numbers will get updated as of 5 p.m. the number stands at 89.99%. So more than 90% of course uh it'll go up a as the final data comes in from the election commission of India. With that said, let's take a look at the exit polls that have come out so far for the five states. Let's start with Assam. This is access my India and it is predicting a sweep for the BJP plus 88 to 100 is what access my India is saying for the Congress. Gorov remember took charge six months back and as per the access mind numbers the congress plus is at 24 to 36 and others at 0 to 03 126 to seats in totality in Assam. So you have the the halfway mark is at about 64 the BJP well above the majority mark as far as Assam is concerned the exit polls put out by access my India let's go to the next poll so that we have for you from Assam's VR's numbers again similar numbers 85 to 95 for the BJP plus 25 to 32 for Congress plus others 6 to 12. Now this is a state before we go on to the next state that is Kerala. One thing to sort of know about Assam is that the battle there is between the two national parties the Bhartya Jantaa party and the Congress primarily because when you change states well we'll take you through the numbers you'll see different players different type of contests in Assam it's a straightforward fight between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP has him imatabism as their main leader in the state, the chief minister looking for a hat-tick uh in 2026 and the Congress which is appointed Gorugay as the state chief about 6 months back he has been asked to sort of take charge and see if the congress's fortunes can change. So that is where Assam stands with that. Let's go to Kerala. Keralam rather the next state that we have for you 140 seats uh in Kerala and as per access my India numbers the UDF is ahead which is at 78 to 90. The LDF at 49 to 62 the BJP plus at 0203.

[00:06:14]Now one thing to okay so we'll go to the next slide as well of Keralum before I explain sort of the political dynamics there. 58 to 68 for the incumbent LDF led by Pinari Vijayen 70 to 80 for the UDF which is the Congress primarily uh and other factions. The BJP failing to open its account as per votewe and uh others is 0004. So this is numbers put out by votewe led by sephologist Amitab Tari someone you may have definitely seen on our channel in the past as well.

[00:06:43]his polling agency has also said that the UDF comfortably placed to come back to power in Kerala to let's see so okay so that was the two agencies that we sort of shortlisted for you now when you look at Kerala's politics you've you have Pinari Vijay the old man leading the state he's been in power for two consecutive terms as far as Keralam is concerned the last state perhaps that is that the left has a presence now Vij faces sort of a strong and an uphill task to retain power. He is getting old.

[00:07:18]The other factors like anti-inccumbenty that are kicking in uh against his government and the fact that the left hasn't has been uh in power. Now, interestingly, the battle in Kerala is between the LDF and the UDF. So, LDF is the left democratic front comprising all the communist parties together. Uh then you have the UDF which is the United Democratic front which is spearheaded by the Congress party. Now both these the communists and the congress are allies in the national India alliance but when it comes to Keralum uh the two parties fight separately in different alliances.

[00:07:50]So these are it's the battle is between the two alliances UDF and LDF. Then you have the BJP that has been trying to make uh inroads for quite some time now.

[00:07:59]They've appointed Rajiv Shandra Shakhar, former cabinet minister. Uh they've appointed Rajeshar as a state chief as the BJP and they are looking to make uh some inroads as well particularly boasted after the momentum they got uh in the Trandum local corporation municipal corporation elections where the BJP came to power uh as well. So a lot of local factors that will be at play which we will discuss at length but for now this is what uh Kerala numbers look like. Now let's go to the next state which is Tamil Naru. Now DMK as per Matri's numbers the DMK plus is uh projected to come back to power under MK style 234 seats is what Tamil Nadu has in totality and uh by the looks of it the DMK looks in poor position to come back to power as per AIDNK plus 87 to 100. And the third player that is that is making its debut in this is TVK led by actor Vijay 10 to 12 seats is what uh Matrice is projecting for TV and others 0 to6 this is the state of Tamil Nadu let's go on to another projection that we have from the southern state of Tamil is BAR DMK plus 125 to 145 AIADNK plus 65 to 85 TVK 16 to 26 and others 1 to6 this This is what Park is saying. Let's go to the other number that we have as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned. Do we have another number on that? This is okay. So we'll we'll we'll try. Okay. So this is an overall uh picture of Tamil Nadu. Now notice the number that you're seeing in the middle. This is access my India of noted pollster Praep Gupta. He is making a very very interesting projection. He's saying that the TVK of Vijay is all set for a smashing debut. 98 to 120 seats is what Pradep Gupta is projecting for actor Vijay's TV. The DMK sliding down to 92 to 1110 uh as per Access My India and the ADMK AIADK plus at 2232.

[00:10:06]These are three agencies of Tamil Nadu and yes these are the individual axis numbers for you that we were talking about. Very very interesting TVK fighting its first election. Actor Vijay the prime face the biggest film star perhaps in this uh era entering the political landscape. Not for the first time has Tamil Nadu seen an actor made uh uh their way into politics state politics. a battle that has been largely been about the Dravidian parties about the two Dravidian parties DMK and AIDMK for the first time is seeing a third big player sort of make its way into this election and as per Axis this is the number I think that will be very very sort of noted very very carefully and come result time one will of course go back and tally whether this prediction of Access my India comes true which is making TV sort of the king maker the DMK and the AI DMK Because one of the question that has really been is to whose votes does Vijay eat into? Does he eat into the ADMK votes? Does he eat into the DMK votes? And because he's not aligning with either sides and he's positioned himself as the third alternative in the state of uh Tamil Nadu. Now if you look at the other poll polling agencies, okay, we'll come back to we we I'll just hold West Bengal for the moment. If you look at uh the other agencies for uh Tamil Nadu, all of them have largely projected that the the the TVK of Vijay will not be a major player.

[00:11:39]Look at that. Matrix says 10 to 12 for Vijay 16 to 26 says P mark and those two agencies are saying that it's a battle between the DMK and the ADMK with the DMK comfortably poised to retain power under MK Stalin. Access my India is the only agency that has sort of kept their neck on the chopping block and they're saying going out and saying that it is going to be Vijay who's going to make not just a difference but perhaps be the kingmaker or sort of in a poor position to dictate the terms as far as politics of Tamil Nadu is concerned. So that was access by India for Tamil Nadu. Now let's go on to the state of West Bengal.

[00:12:17]Before I show up the numbers, all eyes have been on West Bengal really when it comes to campaigning. So much has happened as far as the S, the special intensive revision is concerned.

[00:12:29]And then of course the battle between MTA Banerjee on one side, the Trinul Congress and the Bhartya Jantaa party, the prime minister, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rammit giving it their all. It's a bastion that they're they haven't been able to penetrate so far. of the state politics dominated by MTA manager for the last 15 years. Can the M BJP make a difference this time? They can they improved their tally in 2021 coming up to about 70 to 80 seats from single digits in the 2016 elections.

[00:13:03]Now in 2026, can the BJP really put up a challenge to the Trin Congress? With that, let's look at what the exit polls are saying. And very interesting numbers. This is Metric West Bengal 294 seats. The TMC at 125 to 140. Remember last time around the TMC won more than 200 seats. It was a sweep by the TMC.

[00:13:24]The BJP as per MRI 146 to 161. So the BJP ahead as far as Metrice is concerned in the state of West Bengal. The Congress of course failing to open its account. The left once ruling the state for almost three decades reduced 1 to six as per this exit poll and others six to 10. Let's go on to the next number that we have for the state of West Bengal and this is Park again giving an edge to the Bhartya Jantaa party with 150 to 175 seats. The TMC at 118 to 138 is what T- mark is projecting and of course others to six and nothing for the Congress and the left in this particular uh exit poll. Now if you just show the poll of polls we've like I said we shortlisted not showing all of the agencies to you we're just showing some of them metric people's pulse and pear out of these three two are saying that the BJP has an edge people's pulse is saying that the TMC will win a thumping majority so uh again a very interesting picture coming out from the state of West Bengal and like I said most of uh the attention and the focus and the chatter has been uh on whether Mumtab Banerjee can retain her turf and as per these numbers that we have for you uh coming in at this point uh from the exit poll from the polling agencies it's showing that the BJP has a slight edge.

[00:14:53]Now some of the pollsters like Access by India have not put out their numbers yet. uh and that is something that one will have to of course wait uh and see what those numbers are because when you talk about exit polls and when you talk about polling agencies while they do face a lot of flack and while there are all sorts of questions raised and rightfully so in some of uh in the case of some of the polling agencies as far as their credibility is concerned access my India numbers generally are something that one uh refers to to just get a sense of the direction in which the wind is blowing having said that access has also gotten polls wrong uh in the past.

[00:15:29]In fact, in Bengal itself in 2021, almost all pollsters got Bengal wrong and they showed the exact same trend that they're showing now that the BJP has an edge. That is what pollsters said in 2021 as well. The results of course were completely different. Themul congress swept winning more than 200 seats in the house of 294 in the state of West Bengal. Will it be the same this time around? again and we'll have to see wait and watch as to what other posters are saying and of course the big result day uh that is scheduled on the 4th of May. Now let's just quickly sum it up for you as far as the poll of poll some of the polling agencies rather that have put out the projection. Let's look at Assam. Do we have a compiled state for?

[00:16:12]Yes. So we have a compiled uh listing for Assam. Three agencies is what we have picked. Access my India, Matri and JVC. All three showing a similar direction that the BJP all set for a thumping majority sweep in the state of Assam under him bisarma 80 88 to 100 is what access is saying. Metric 85 to95 JVC 88 to 101. The Congress again expected to lose power and their figures as per this exit poll is anywhere between 23 and 36. The others of course 0 to 3, 6 to 12 and 2 to 5. Uh let's go to the other state which we can show three again this is Keralam three agencies access India vote wipe of Amitabari people's pulse. Now all three again showing a similar direction that the UDF that is the congressled alliance uh is slightly ahead of the left democratic front and as per this all these three in fact numbers the UDF is all set to come to par albeit with a a thin majority not as thumping as the UDF would have wanted. Of course as far as the UDF is concerned they would have questions of their own as to who is their popular chief minister face. Is it VD Satisan? Is it Romeshala? Is it Casey Wen Gopal? Is it Shashi Taru himself or who who could it be? Uh and the BJP despite all the hype and all uh the sort of chatter about what the BJP could do, can it do anything in Kerala, it's failing to open its account uh as per most of the exit polls, access my India, vote five and people's pulse three is what the upper limit is uh is what is being projected. Uh let's go to the other state that we have three agencies again metric, people's pulse and P mark.

[00:17:50]number access my India and some of the other posters haven't put out their numbers for West Bengal yet. These are the posters that I have put out. Two of them are saying that the BJP is ahead in West Bengal and the TMC is just about trailing in people's pulse case. So they're saying that the TMC is well ahead with 177 to 187 and the BJP at 95 to 1110.

[00:18:16]Let's look at Tamil Nadu. Like we just showed you earlier, Axis my India is saying that TVK is 98 to 120 all set for a roaring debut under Talabati Vijay as he is called lovingly in Tamil Nadu.

[00:18:30]ADMK at 22 to 32 as per access by India 92 to110 for the DMK plus alliance of MK Stalin.

[00:18:40]Um do we have any other state to to sort of look at? Okay. Okay. So I think this is this is generally what uh the senses that is coming in from the pollsters so far. uh we will and like I said the credibility of the exit polls is something uh that sort of you can you can uh bring your own uh insights and you can have your own opinion uh surely on it because like I said you take these numbers with a pinch of salt uh and the health warning generally and there's always uh that and yes there you go we have the first reaction coming in on the credibility of the exit polls coming from Derek O'Brien Congress MP in Raja Sabha And just the point that I was making earlier that all the exit pollsters got Bengal horribly wrong last time around in 2021 and you can see the actual results were 215 to 77 a complete sweep by the DMC contrary to what uh the exit polls were predicting. Then this time around as well the exit pollsters are saying that the BJP is slightly ahead of the Trinamul Congress and Derek O'Brien is saying how off the mark were the predictions from the final results. That is of course undisputable and for everyone to see uh as far as the credibility of the exit polls is concerned.

[00:20:01]Since we were uh on the point of uh what exit polls do and uh how do they sort of show their uh numbers one can of course debate and discuss about it endlessly.

[00:20:15]Another reaction coming in from the moon congress. Of course like I said most of the exit polling exit polls say that the BJP is ahead and you're of course seeing reactions coming in from the moon congress. Saga Rajya Saba MP exit polls putting out yawning emoji. Uh she is of course uh a Rajya Sabha MP from the new Congress recently sent former senior journalist now turned Rajya Sabha MP. We just showed you Delhi O'Brien's reaction as well. So that is where the picture stands and that is what sort of our endeavor has been to show you the numbers without vouching for uh any of it because we will get to see uh the results uh on the 4th of May. We'll have to hold our horses till then. But what we try to sort of uh give you is a sense of what the posters are saying and the direction which they think a particular state could go. So very interesting trends, very interesting data and numbers to look at. But at the end of it, these are all predictions and if you are say the BJP in West Bengal, you'll be very happy to see these numbers. If you're the Congress like we just showed you, not happy at all. So a lot to discuss, debate and uh talk about but all eyes will now be on the 4th of May.

[00:21:30]That is when the results come out for these five important critical state.

[00:21:35]Each of the state has a political story, a political narrative of its own and all to play for of course as far as uh these states are concerned. So we will end this live stream here. Thank you so much for tuning in and uh we will see you of course on the 4th of May. That is when the results will come out. Till then stay tuned to HW news and thank you so much for watching this live stream.