May Is Going To Be VERY Different

Added: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]The month of April was wet for some, very dry for others, and warm for most of us, but we may be in for quite a shake-up as we head into our fifth month of the year. I'll have all the details, plus take a look at your weekend forecast coming up right now in today's video.

[00:00:17]Welcome into the show that stayed up way too late last night watching the Los Angeles Lakers take another step toward becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a playoff series after being up three games to nothing. It's not a done deal yet, but they are well on their way with the series now tied at three to two LA. Sad. Now to weather.

[00:00:38]One more day of tornadoes before Wait a minute. Didn't I talk about that yesterday? I think I did, and I also think I speculated that yesterday we would see no more than two tornadoes for the day. You know how many we actually saw?

[00:00:53]That's right, my friends, zero tornadoes. We had 99 severe weather reports, none of which were tornadoes.

[00:01:00]That is why we live in the no hype zone here. We don't need to hype the weather.

[00:01:04]It is dramatic enough. 99 severe weather reports, incidentally, that's the same amount of points the Houston Rockets scored to beat the Lakers 99 to 93 yesterday, but uh most of those were centered here in the deep south in our slight risk area. We saw a lot of hail and wind reports down here across Texas from Texas to Mississippi. Another little clustering here in North Carolina as well, where our marginal risk was, but no tornado reports, thank goodness.

[00:01:29]This is our surface map for today. We've got a few impulses moving across the south. One of those is bringing rain to North and South Carolina and Georgia this morning. Another one will be sneaking into Texas later today. Got a marginal risk, isolated severe weather, but with potential flooding down here as well. Hail would be our primary threat, but again, not a massive deal today.

[00:01:46]Could see a few, but nothing too bad to uh deal with today. Frontal system draped across the south. This has been flowing to the south over the course of the week, and there it is. Along and around that, we could find showers and thunderstorms. Another little impulse swinging through the central toward the Mississippi Valley, bringing showers and thunderstorms in this area, and showers from the Ohio Valley all the way up into the northeast. We're seeing some good rain this morning move through New York along this frontal boundary with a couple snow showers not out of the question up in the northern Great Lakes, and of course in Wyoming and Colorado seeing a few snowflakes fly in the higher elevations out there. Now, April has been a month of a certain type, and this is the type of month that it has been. Very, very warm with the exception of the northern plains and the northern Rockies up here in the east or the west, rather. At least the northern plains, the Midwest, and everywhere else has been above normal with the exception of South Florida and California, parts of the Great Basin here, but other than that, it has been a very, very warm month relative to normal.

[00:02:48]Precipitation-wise, the corridor of heaviest precipitation has been from South Texas up into the Great Lakes and interior western sections of the northeast. Of course, along the plains as well, in the northern California. But look look at this. That's your There's your corridor of heavy precipitation. It has been really, really dry up here in the Pacific Northwest, and of course in the southeast, too, with the exception of South Florida. And the drought has expanded on the drought monitor. We'll take a look at that in a minute, but it has been a dry month in these areas. So, will May offer any relief? Well, it may.

[00:03:20]We've talked about the um El Niño pattern beginning to take shape as we get into the summer. That would increase the likelihood of subtropical jet. And we're already seeing signs that that is coming to life in at least a small way. We're watching impulses continue to flow across the south in this direction. We'll take a look at what the European weekly, which is just a longer range European suite of models that run, and we get an average together. We look call that the mean, and this is the mean for the month of May. All right?

[00:03:49]North Dakota down to Texas, we're looking at cooler than normal temperatures everywhere in the east with the maybe exception of Florida being normal. Everywhere out west is either normal or above, and that is because a flow pattern is predicted to set up like this, ridging out west with more troughing in the east courtesy of blocking way up north in Canada. We see that in the wintertime. It pushes the storm track to the south, where we're watching a pattern establish itself where we could see an actual cool month of May. And if you like cool weather, then maybe that's for you. We'll see what the CFS, which is the American version of this, has for the month of May here in a second. But look at the precipitation spit out by the European weekly's.

[00:04:29]From the Ohio Valley down to South Texas and on east, everybody getting in on beneficial rains, particularly across the south. That tells me that the European weekly is trying to indicate an active subtropical jet with a very dry signature in the plains, in the central plains, where we've had a lot of wetness here as well. Maybe even see some wetness in the west central plains, where it's been dry, but still dry across the north, especially in the northwest. We're not seeing any relief up there, but uh this will be certainly welcome news for the drought down here across the south. Well, what about the CFS? Precipitation-wise, it's sort of kind of messy here with a lot of browns and greens mixed together. Green, of course, above normal. Brown is below normal. The deeper the color palette is, the more above or below that it is.

[00:05:18]That's how that works. But uh by and large, eastern seaboard looking at pretty much above normal precipitation out here in the west central plains as well, a signal for above normal. Drier than normal here in the central uh basically Mississippi River Valley.

[00:05:32]And then over in the northwest, still no relief from the drought up here. So, we do have a little bit of agreement except for predominantly across the south, where we're looking at a little bit drier here in the CFS. What about temperatures? Well, there's good agreement here. Most of the east, west of the Dakotas and Texas, or east of the Dakotas and Texas, looks to be below normal for the month of May with our ridge centered out west. You guys would be above normal in this scenario.

[00:06:03]So, there is good agreement there. We will see how this plays out. My friends, this could be a uh stark difference from the month of April. So, interesting times for sure, and I for one am glad to see it. I do not like a lot of uh hot weather early on in the season. We'll get plenty of hot weather later. Let's keep it cool for as long as we can, or at least reasonably cool. But look at the drought monitor. It's continued to expand these red colors through the southeast. Red is extreme drought. That's level four out of five. The magenta here is exceptional drought. That is five out of five. So, very, very dry. That continues to expand from the southeast across southern tier, western plains, and up into the northwest. Ironically, even though we're in a rainfall deficit, we're not in a drought yet up here in the Pacific Northwest, but I bet that will change if those uh prognostications from the European weekly's and the see at latest CFS run are to be believed.

[00:06:58]So, we will watch and see how all of this plays out, but definitely some differences showing up for the month of May. Now, we're going to take a look at what's going on out there today. We've got some rain around, and take a look at that weekend forecast and see what uh the temperature and precipitation pattern looks [screaming] like as we head through the weekend.

[00:07:14]>> [cheering] >> If you're new to the channel, then allow myself to introduce myself. I'm your host and meteorologist Jason Pritchard.

[00:07:22]Little Austin Powers reference there, by the way. Glad that you are here.

[00:07:26]Subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so. Join us for all the fun and excitement. And of course, like the content if you like it. Leave a comment for me in the comment section if there's anything I can be in prayer about. Most importantly, put that down in there.

[00:07:35]Love to support you. Pray for you guys generically every day. And thank you to all of our channel members. You can become a channel member, too, if you so choose. Easy to do. Four different levels, but uh thank you those uh you who have done so. Now, we are going to rock and roll through the rest of this forecast. Look at this. Most of the nation, in the south at least, is under significant cloud cover with some of these clouds producing a rain. Clouds extend all the way up across the eastern seaboard. A few more clouds coming into the nation's midsection, up in toward the Great through South Carolina, where we need it, across some showers across the deep south here in Louisiana, parts of southern Alabama around Jackson south there, and then over uh here in toward uh where is this? Fort Stockton, I think we have it. Yeah, San Angelo, Fort Stockton, Midland, Abilene all kind of triangulated in and around there. Then Colorado Springs over in toward central west Kansas, we're finding some rain there, and of course up in through the corn belt, looking at some rain and some snow showers across the northern Great Lakes, North Dakota, parts of Montana, and then into Wyoming and Colorado, and of course more rain working through New England with plenty of upper level support there. A little bit of energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere working through. And there you have it. There's the rain.

[00:08:55]All of that flow flowing through, so we don't need to look at that again. But looking at our Storm Prediction Center forecast, so we've got a little bit of a impulse moving across the south today.

[00:09:05]Could bring an isolated severe weather threat here to south central Texas and southern Louisiana, too. Again, not really looking at much outside of couple of hail reports.

[00:09:15]Uh Things came together just right. Could see a brief tornado spin up. Again, tomorrow, same sort of areas. Just as this frontal boundary continues to sag here, and little pieces of energy move along that boundary, uh instability could work in enough just enough to create some intense convection with a storm or two. And then day three, that threat moves over to the north central portion of Florida. Okay? So, really not looking at any big organized severe weather threats. Just some isolated severe weather over the next couple of days, and that's pretty much it. As far as what's going on upstairs, well, here's our energy map. Got a big low. Look at this big low sitting up here north of the Great Lakes. That's really not going to go too far. We're going to just continue to see this troughing pattern persist up here with that um Great the Lakes low and little pieces of energy are going to flow around this way keeping some unsettled weather from time to time through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Subtropical jets coming along like this. You can see all the little bright colors here in the jet stream down here. There's one coming through South Carolina out ahead of those where you find your showers lift and thunder you know, potentially thunderstorms if we have instability.

[00:10:23]There's another low coming in. So, all of these impulses will continue to move across in the flow in the south as we head through Friday and Saturday. Look at this. We've got a just a little storm system, a bonafide trough working in through here from that closed low that's about to enter the US. That will move across the south, maybe even link up with this piece of energy the spoke coming around that gyre north of the Great Lakes as it moves over into the into the Quebec area.

[00:10:49]And there we have a trough in the east and then just another reinvigoration of that uh troughing closed low above the Great Lakes as we head into the next week.

[00:10:59]Similar pattern. So, wash, rinse, and repeat as we get on into early next week. But that's where the flow pattern is setting up. Now, if we take a look at how the precipitation pattern plays out over the next couple of days. Rain today across the south, across New England as well. Impulses moving along in the flow bring some showers from the Great Plains into the to the Ohio Valley in a more organized area of showers and thunderstorms as low pressure gets together across the Gulf Coast states.

[00:11:25]Will swing across the southeast and bring some beneficial rain to the southeast even into the Carolinas up to southern Virginia potentially. The GFS wants to squash this down just a little bit more. So, we will see how that plays out. That will be Saturday. Sunday that departs as we wake up to go to church Sunday morning or whatever you're doing on Sunday. Nice day up and down the eastern seaboard with the exception of coastal New England potentially with more showers working through the corn belt and the Great Lakes. And then as we get into early next week, we could see another system begin to set up down here in the south toward Tuesday into Wednesday. So, we'll have to watch and see how that plays out. As far as temperatures go, definitely going to be below normal from the Great Lakes down into the lower Mississippi Valley out into the plains today through Friday.

[00:12:07]Look at those purple anomalies just expand to the south and to the east.

[00:12:12]That will persist Saturday into the weekend with the exception of Florida.

[00:12:17]West, you are warming up while the east is cooling down. We get into Saturday, Sunday, start to get a little bit of a return flow out here into the plains up into the Midwest by Sunday night into Monday. But another shot is poised to come in as we work through mid next week with the southeast continuing to hang on to those anomalies. All right. So, that is what is going on as we head into the weekend. Here's your space weather.

[00:12:40]What's going on in space? Nothing at all. We've got a couple of sunspots.

[00:12:43]They're not really becoming more complex. Coronal hole too far north to bother us. Nothing going on x-ray flux KP minding its own business staying very, very, very low and no solar flaring at this time. I will watch on it and let you know. We have a full moon tomorrow. The first full moon in May is called a flower moon.

[00:13:01]That is coming up tomorrow which is May the 1st. May the 4th be with you. We'll have the 4th May the 4th be with you pretty soon. Don't forget about that.

[00:13:11]That's important. That's a Star Wars reference for those of you who don't know that. Most of you probably do. In any event, my friends, that is the show for today. Don't forget to stay sharp, chase hard, and be back tomorrow with Join me again tomorrow. That's what I'm trying to say. For a another video. I will have your Friday forecast in the meantime. Hope you all have a wonderful day. Take care everybody. So long.

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