Tropical update: Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the Gulf

[00:00:00]Okay, good Monday evening everybody.

[00:00:01]Wanted to jump in here a little after 7:00. Hurricane Center with their 7:00 p.m. intermediate advisory have gone ahead and upgraded what was Tropical Depression Number Two to now Tropical Storm Bertha. So, we have the second named storm of the season in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. That's where the storm is centered right now south of Panama City.

[00:00:21]It has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. So, it is a minimal bare minimal tropical storm as of right now.

[00:00:29]Moving west northwest at three, so it's basically stationary. Pressure at 1004 millibars, not very low. So, it is a absolute minimal tropical storm, but that's the update is that it is now Tropical Storm Bertha. The system has struggled to maintain circulation during the day today. Notice how the clouds are being ripped off to the west and southwest.

[00:00:51]That is because of wind shear that's been overrunning the storm all day today.

[00:00:56]But, according to the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in there reporting back, they've got winds that are sustained near that center of 40 mph, so upgraded to Bertha. That wind shear today has slowed down the storm development for sure, and it has resulted in a lower wind intensity forecast in the modeling.

[00:01:15]We'll take a look at that in a second.

[00:01:17]This is the I think the best modeling we have right now on this. We go into Tuesday evening, there's your circulation.

[00:01:25]Couple of things. It's interacting with land and that shear out of the northeast to southwest will continue. Both of those act to disrupt strengthening. So, this is not forecast to become an intense system. Maybe maximum sustained winds of 50, but that would probably be in the convection that's going to be displaced from the center offshore because of that wind shear pushing it to the south.

[00:01:49]That's Tuesday. We're just really hot here on Tuesday. We go into Wednesday, go into Thursday. If that remnant circulation stays intact, it's here.

[00:01:58]It's elongated, it's weak, it's just a remnant circulation at this point.

[00:02:02]That's the forecast from the Hurricane Center. So, at the moment we're not forecasting a tropical storm here. This will be a remnant circulation that again is being impacted by pulling in dry air to weaken it off the mainland, interacting with the land, weakening it again, and the shear pushing the rain to the south and west. You know, and it may be that we get a direct hit from the remnant circulation and we just don't see much in the way of impacts here.

[00:02:27]That right now appears to be the most likely outcome for Houston-Galveston.

[00:02:32]Clearly, anytime you get a system in the Gulf, you want to check it because things can change overnight. But, that's where we stand. And so, as far as impacts forecast for Houston-Galveston, leading up to this, getting close, it's hot. 99 on Tuesday, Wednesday 100, Thursday 101.

[00:02:49]And then I've put in a 20% chance for an isolated shower.

[00:02:55]I think that's the best forecast right now, an isolated shower possible with the remnant circulation.

[00:03:02]And if it pulls in enough dry air, it may be that we don't get any rain at all. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and we just stay very, very hot. That's where we stand with the storm now being upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. At 9:00, we spend a lot more time going through all the modeling, all the factors. We'll look at the upper-level wind pattern. We'll look at everything in a much more elongated elongated detailed tropical update at noon. Right here, we'll see you then for the update on Bertha.