HOW MUCH LOWER WILL CRYPTO CRASH?🚨 (Emergency Update)

本站添加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:03]Good afternoon everybody. Welcome back to Selinix Crypto and welcome to this emergency update about the crypto markets or should I say about Bitcoin because the crypto markets in all fairness at this point of time. You might not say so if you take a look at something like this but the crypto markets are doing quite fine. And it's very much Bitcoin that is crashing and we'll talk about that and obviously Bitcoin to a certain extent is pulling the entire crypto market down together with it and uh and that's definitely a risk to go down lower as well. So we'll start off with Bitcoin. We'll talk about what's going on. We'll talk about what's the situation. Can we expect it to bottom here soon or are we going to drop down lower? If yes, what are the key price targets that we're looking at? And then we'll talk a little bit more about the markets. Right? So I think the best framework we can use for Bitcoin at this point of time is the framework I always use and that's what do the fundamentals look like? what is the structure and what is the flow and I think all of these three at this point of time are bearish but the fundamentals are still slightly um in the middle because what I mean with that is that Bitcoin right now is very weak right but at the same point of time you can see that equity markets right stocks are still fine um financial markets where Bitcoin you know in in the past was quite tied to right believe it or not but Bitcoin was actually correlated to the S&P 500 to stocks not anymore but in in cert certain times it was um but the general financial markets that's not where the problem is coming from. I mean definitely yes we've seen some more tension in the world especially in the last couple of days and that's bad for risky assets but if you take a look at stocks right here they're still fine. If you take a look at the Russell 2000 these are risky stocks historically this is actually more correlated to Bitcoin. This is rallying as well. Um, so obviously that means that okay, Bitcoin is is weak despite the general fundamentals and the general financial markets being strong.

[00:01:55]That's a bad thing and that is definitely true because ultimately I think right now the key reason why Bitcoin is falling like it is is very much a Bitcoin cryptospecific uh thing. It's it's the fact that the crypto markets at this point of time I mean the stock market is is rising and rallying this much because there's real value. There's real money being made in crypto to a large extent that is not the case. We're still in the bare market, right? that there's not really interesting things going on except for hyperlquid.

[00:02:21]And then outside of that, we've had the news stats strategy potentially is going to sell Bitcoin, which massively like it it creates this potential seller. That doesn't mean that he will sell. I've said this before, but it doesn't mean that they will sell more Bitcoin, but it does mean that the market has to price in that they will sell more Bitcoin. And maybe they are selling more Bitcoin.

[00:02:39]That is a possibility. So therefore, the fundamentals are still bearish structure- wise. What I mean with that is, okay, do we have a strong support level right here or are we at a strong support level? No. On the 12-hour time frame, this is a major downtrend, right?

[00:02:54]So, so based on that, we can also not get a nice movement to the upside. Um, and uh, you know, structure- wise, there's two things we can do right here that are close to the price. We either need to reclaim 68,500 and into 69,000.

[00:03:08]Um, that's the key level that we have above us right here. And um well, do I think we have an opportunity to reclaim that? Yes. But I'd like to see that first before calling a bottom or drop down into our next major support level.

[00:03:20]And the next major support level for Bitcoin is is some is a little bit lower. Um we have the yearly value area low at 66,600s.

[00:03:30]But then we have a a stronger swing low right here. uh which is also the February March value area low in the previous quarter value area low around 6566,000.

[00:03:41]So when we're talking about structure, we either need to reclaim 69,000 or we need to um get towards 65,000. Then I'd say we have a chance structure- wise to form a bottom. But like I said, the fundamentals at the moment are still bearish, at least for crypto, Bitcoin specifically. Um and the order flow I think is also still bearish, right? I I told you already this morning that I thought we were going to drop down lower um because the funding rates are still increasing, right? I mean, you can see right here, we actually do have a bit of a liquidation spike or at least we had a lot of longs closing right here, but at the same point of time, what you can see is that the funding rates are still increasing, right? So, that means that that Bitcoin to a certain extent is still overbought. How can it happen? You you say, well, we still have future longs coming in while spot is selling off, right? So, so what what happens then is that the spot price is trading lower and that means funding rates are positive. So that means that to a certain extent the bitcoin futures market is still overbought which uh increases the risk of a further liquidation spike and uh besides that if you take a look at this this last candle right here it's not a liquidation spike.

[00:04:46]I mean the point of control of this candle is at at the at the upper part of it right a liquidation spike the point of control of the candle should be at the bottom. So, at this point of time, neither fundamentally structurally or or when we're looking at the order flow, I can confirm a bottom for Bitcoin. I think we have a chance to reclaim 69,000. It's a possibility. You should be ready for that. Will I buy Bitcoin then? No. Um, will I buy altcoins?

[00:05:10]Maybe. We'll get to that in a moment.

[00:05:12]Um, and otherwise, and at the moment, I would say it's most likely we're just going to drop down into 66 and 65,000 and that there we have a better chance.

[00:05:19]Now, like I said, if we look at the wider crypto markets, like the total three is holding relatively well. It's not bullish, but it's holding the 90-day rolling VWAP. Bitcoin already lost the 90-day rolling VWAP last Saturday or so or Sunday. So, altcoins actually do think that there are some interesting pockets of strength. I mean, even if you look at Ethereum, this is what I said this morning. So far, also correct.

[00:05:41]We'll see if that holds up. Maybe we'll still have to push down lower, but something like Ethereum already is is holding relatively well. And that's because this is happening, right?

[00:05:50]Bitcoin dominance is falling off a cliff, which also has to do with strategy having sold off Bitcoin, right? That's a key reason or at least this is a key proof that the bearish momentum we see in the markets right now is primarily driven by bearish fundamentals for Bitcoin, which has an effect on the rest of the markets. But the rest of the markets are holding on relatively well. There's a couple of coins here that I wanted to wanted to look at real real real quick. Um, on was showing some strength earlier today. I wanted to to to call it out, but I don't think it's very interesting, honestly.

[00:06:22]Um, but besides that, I think near is holding on relatively well. If that's able to hold that level right here at 2.55 and 2.6, I think this can actually rally up higher. Like like I'm I'm I'm not even kidding. I know how strange it sounds when the entire market is very bearish, but I do think that there's potential there. Same thing with ICP. if as long as ICCP is able to hold 2.95. I think you have to be slightly optimistic, slightly bullish on that.

[00:06:45]Injective is at strong resistance. So, I'd be a little bit more careful with that. What other coins do we have? It's um it's a limited list, I have to say. I have to concede. It's a limited list.

[00:06:55]And um I would still wait for Bitcoin to form that bottom. Like I said, either with negative funding rates or with a reclaim of 69,000 or with a hit into 66 or 65,000. Wait for that or wait for the fundamentals to get a little bit better.

[00:07:08]That's hard to do. Structure is better.

[00:07:10]Flow is better or easier at least. Wait for that. Then I think that there there will be more opportunities. But for now, that's it. That's what I think you need to know about what's going on right here. What to expect and that divergence that we are seeing right now, which I think is quite interesting. And there's actually opportunities in there between Bitcoin and altcoins. But those are my thoughts for now. Thank you for watching everybody. Take care and bye.