NOAA’s Hurricane Season Forecast Focused on Super El Nino

Added: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]back over to first alert meteorologist Krissy Coler, cuz Krissy, you just got an update for us on our our forecast season. Yeah, this is coming from NOAA.

[00:00:07]The 2026 hurricane season forecast just released, and if you have the Fox Carolina weather app, you probably just got the alert from me and sending out that video update. If you don't have it, you can scan the QR code right there on your screen and get that downloaded onto your phone. You get these video updates from us on the regular basis, especially when we have news like this to share with you that we have an actually below normal season expected from NOAA. This is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center. You got 14 named storms is the normal. So, we're looking at eight to 14 this year. Of those expected, three of to six of those are expected to be hurricanes, and of those hurricanes, one to three are expected to be major category three hurricanes or stronger. And it all has to do with the super El Niño that we're anticipating to build in by the later part of the summer into the early part of the fall, August through October, which is the peak of hurricane season.

[00:00:58]That means we usually get more rain here in South Carolina. So, we're already kicking into that weather pattern, and that's likely going to last through the summer and into the fall, but it does mean less hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin thanks to more upper-level shear. The flip side of that is is do we do have some warmer water temperatures in the Atlantic, warmer than normal already at this point. So, we'll have to kind of see how those two battle it out, but that shear is likely going to win out. I will say though, just because we're looking at below average doesn't mean we let our guard down. Just that reminder that it only takes one storm to really ruin your day.

[00:01:30]So, you still need to prepare for a below average season the same way that you would prepare for an above average season. We'll talk more about the storm chances ahead for us coming up in just a few minutes.