This Severe Threat Just Got A MAJOR UPGRADE

Added: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]The severe weather threat has been upgraded for today, and especially tomorrow with tornadoes, very large hail, and even an organized wind threat possible with widespread gusts over 70 mph. We'll take a look at who is under the gun with that, plus where rain might threaten your weekend plans. Got all of that more coming up right now on today's video. A complex weather pattern is in place today and through the weekend across the lower 48, and energy within the flow is leading to areas of unsettled weather around the country.

[00:00:30]That means heavy rain and flooding for some, and the risk of severe weather for others. We're going to look at a lot of maps this morning, show you the energy in the mid-levels. We're also going to look at instability, and we're going to see who is under the threat for the biggest impacts from severe weather through the weekend, and who might see a rain as well. Welcome into the channel.

[00:00:50]I'm your host, meteorologist Jason Pritchard. I'm glad that you are app, and you can see the map continues to update with colors that show areas of severe weather. We've got some green from Wyoming all the way back through central Oklahoma, green across the Gulf Coast states, a little bit of green here in the sections some sections here in the Mid-Atlantic, and then the Eastern Great Lakes as well. These are areas of isolated severe weather possible potential later in the afternoon. But what has my attention here is this yellow area in central and western Oklahoma. Now, this is a slight risk, a level two out of five, so not a major risk, but certainly as we've come closer in on time, we are looking at a potential for severe weather. I will zoom in here where we can see this a little bit better. And if we take a look at the actual components that make up severe weather, such as tornadoes, wind, and hail, we'll look at those individually. We can see that tornadoes actually make up a 5% risk here, so we do have a chance of tornadoes later today, and if if any of them form, they could be strong. We're going to see supercells come in, elevated in nature producing a hail threat initially, and a low-level jet's going to kick up the wind energy in the low levels this afternoon into the evening hours bringing some moisture, lower those cloud bases potentially. And if that happens, a supercell works into those areas where that is occurring, we could see a tornado and a strong tornado at that. Hail could be a problem as well, and I'll zoom this back out so we can see the rest of the country, too. But hail could be a problem really in any of these areas, particularly in the west areas of the Gulf Coast. And here in Oklahoma, we could see some very large hail with 2-in in diameter hail, and wind certainly could be an issue in any of these areas, too, particularly in Oklahoma with these supercells.

[00:02:35]Everywhere else we're looking at isolated severe weather today. What about tomorrow? Tomorrow has my concern a little bit more because we have an enhanced risk from San Angelo over to Dallas tomorrow. We're looking at a piece of energy coming in, all right? So this is going to help really, really cool the low levels off just above the surface, and as that happens, instability at the surface will help to generate thunderstorms, little cold fronts kind of be pressing in from the south to provide that lift at the surface, and that rapid cooling as we get up off the surface is going to lead to wind, particularly if we can organize these thunderstorms into a line or a bow segment later in the evening tomorrow.

[00:03:13]That will organize and really help to produce a solid contiguous line of thunderstorms that pushes through the area and bring some really gusty winds.

[00:03:22]We're talking in excess of 70 mph possible. So wind is going to be the big threat here, and you can see the main threat along the Gulf Coast states into Florida tomorrow with an isolated chance as you get on out and past Ark-La-Tex.

[00:03:36]But even over here for my friend Teresa up here in this area, look out tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours could see a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms here, but mostly in Central Texas, Fort Worth, Waco, Dallas, San Angelo, as I said, you are under the gun tomorrow. Tornado threat is a fairly low considering everything else going on. So, not looking at a big tornado outbreak, but certainly an organized wind threat and could see some significant gusts, as well as I mentioned, hail could be a problem, too, with very large hail. The red is a 30% chance, by the way, of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

[00:04:16]Maybe if it looks like tomorrow that this wind threat will become more organized, we might see higher probabilities here. And then if we go back to our main area, uh main map, and take a look at the categorical risk, we're looking at um get over here where we can see the whole thing. We're looking at that front pushing through as we get on into Monday, leaving an isolated severe thunderstorm at risk, and that may get upgraded as we head on out into Monday, but certainly something to be aware of from central Florida all the way up to southeastern North Carolina back in the southern Louisiana.

[00:04:45]And that's where we're looking at severe weather through the weekend. We do have some freeze and frost advisories that are expiring. We've got a frost advisory here uh in South Dakota that will uh be for tonight with temperatures getting down into the upper or uh probably lower 30s with some frost, and then a freeze warning for tomorrow. That will be uh up here in northern Michigan where we see temperatures getting into the upper 20s tonight. So, my goodness. We've got a little low pressure. You see this little low right here? This is forming out here, and it will be uh moving kind of in this direction. We've got a cold front that's sitting situated here.

[00:05:17]We've got another cold front, our stalled boundary across the Gulf Coast.

[00:05:20]got another cold front up here where the Arctic air is coming in. For this time of year, it's going to be very, very cold, but a wide area of thunderstorms, with the exception of the Tennessee Valley here. Nice out west with high pressure in control and warming up out there.

[00:05:32]Here's the middle-level flow.

[00:05:34]Middle-level flow kind of looks chaotic, but let me show you what's going on here. We've got an upper-level closed low sitting up here in Ontario, and then spokes of energy. Here comes a a packet of energy in the flow. That's going to be an important uh piece for our severe weather maker uh tomorrow. Energy coming through Texas today, there's our frontal boundary. You see all the energy along that. And then just a little piece of energy coming into the Great Lakes today, another piece of energy moving through the uh Ohio Valley that'll help spark off showers and thunderstorms. So, a very active, kind of chaotic flow. And as the flow pattern continues to persist around this upper-level low, we see all this energy moving in. This is what it acts uh on the uh warm, moist air at the surface such that it is up here in the north, there's not a lot of moisture down here across the Gulf Coast states, there's much more moisture. And then even seeing some return of that into the plains today uh in Oklahoma looking at potentially some severe weather today.

[00:06:25]But uh those are the mechanisms that sort of drive severe weather, all this stuff going on at the mid-levels. You can see that packet of energy coming into uh the Four Corners region and in northern uh Texas as we head through the morning hours tomorrow. It sort of gets a little washed out, but still vigorous enough to help spark off showers and thunderstorms, provide some cooling with height, and a convergence along that frontal zone. We'll watch that shape up as we head through tomorrow afternoon.

[00:06:52]And as we get on into Monday, kind of see what's happening here. Got a cold front coming through here, low pressure developing here, moving off in that direction, and a cold front here with showers and thunderstorms all in that box uh there for Monday. As we get on into Monday evening, that will push off for Tuesday and dry us out. CAPE, our instability, we need a trigger, ignition, and we need fuel for thunderstorms. And here's the fuel this afternoon, predominantly down across the Gulf Coast states. That's where our bulk of our fuel is as we head through the day. You'll see a little bit of it build in the Great Lakes and over here in the Mid-Atlantic, too, and even up into Wyoming get a little bit of instability there. But these bright colors, where we see bright colors, that's usually where we find trouble if we've got some ignition. And uh that's why we have kind of an isolated threat back into these areas that you're seeing the bluer and green colors.

[00:07:38]Just not a ton of a lift and not a ton of instability, fortunately, but we've got a lot of wind shear. So, any storms that form could go severe on an isolated basis until you get down here in Oklahoma today, and then as we head through the day tomorrow, you see everything kind of ramping up tomorrow. Look at the We're getting up to purples down here in Texas. So, a lot instability with cooling coming in aloft is really going to set the stage for potentially a mesoscale convective system moving through Texas tomorrow.

[00:08:05]You can just kind of pick out where the front is, dry air to the north of that, moist air leading instability across the south when we get into Monday afternoon.

[00:08:12]The axis of instability is really from eastern North Carolina back through the eastern sections of Texas, and that's where we'll find the severe weather.

[00:08:18]Florida, you're looking at it. Maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two up here across the Midwest, but that's what we've got going on the next couple of days instability-wise. As far as the radar goes, we've got some thunderstorms out there this morning. We'll roll this back along the Gulf Coast states. A little bit less here back into Texas and Louisiana than what the models are showing, but it's doing a good job picking up in what we've got in Montana.

[00:08:38]Just some showers up here, showers through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. A couple of showers in eastern North Carolina, but down in the southeast where we find the lion's share of the rain this morning, that will continue to push east through the afternoon and evening. Could see some thunderstorms fire back up in Texas.

[00:08:53]Next area that we're watching is in through Oklahoma. When we get on into about 7:00 8:00 Central Time, and you start to see those thunderstorms break out here. There's a little bit of a line of thunderstorms in our marginal risk.

[00:09:04]You see that coming on up here. Maybe can kind of zoom in here and see that.

[00:09:09]Few thunderstorms through the Mid-Atlantic states as well. Could see a little bit of severe weather there, but again, not too much. Just be on the lookout. But as we head through the afternoon and evening, could see a few thunderstorms pop up in Oklahoma. Some of those could get rooted in the boundary layer. And then as we head into the nighttime hours, that will all begin to weaken as we head to tomorrow morning.

[00:09:26]Showers, thunderstorms through Oklahoma and Kansas back into Arkansas and up along that frontal boundary that's moving in. You can see that very, very nicely where that frontal boundary is up in the main all the way back through the Ohio Valley, and then back into Texas, we start to see thunderstorms fire off tomorrow late in the afternoon and the evening hours. Even some thunderstorms in Arkansas. Now, let me tell you something about this. This is one model showing where thunderstorm placement is expected in the model's eyes. There are other models that have a little bit of a different timing and a little bit of a different location on some of these thunderstorms through the Ark-La-Tex.

[00:10:01]The HRRR model brings thunderstorms in a little bit earlier than the rapid refresh I'm showing you here. The NAM is a little bit more paltry with its depiction of thunderstorms. So, a lot of different scenarios are on the table here, but just be aware if you're in Arkansas, southern Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, and back into central and eastern Texas, stay weather aware tomorrow. Particularly in Texas, you can see this line starting to get together as we get on into 8:00 p.m. central time. Thunderstorms through the Ark-La-Tex here in the Arkansas and the lower Mississippi Valley as well. And that will push on to the south and to the east as we get into the wee hours overnight approaching midnight. Things kind of settle down a little bit, maybe get another extension of that line back into western Texas or south central Texas, rather. But, other than that, things will be settling down. Some showers out and about to start the day here in parts of the mid-Atlantic through the Appalachians back into the Cumberland Plateau. And looking at showers along the Gulf Coast states through the day on Monday. That front will begin to push to south and the east as temperatures warm up. We'll start to see thunderstorms fire off in the eastern Piedmont of uh South Carolina, North Carolina, and down to South Central Georgia. And that will continue to press east through the evening and overnight hours.

[00:11:17]Monday night, and another batch of showers, maybe a couple of rumbles of thunder up toward the Midwest. Tuesday evening, all right? So, that is what is going on. Florida, you're getting in on the action as well. So, that's what's happening. Cooler temperatures are coming in as after we get past this weekend. We've got some cool air today out in in New England, but going to be warming up across the South, particularly out West. Very cold air coming in behind that low into the Midwest tomorrow, especially and in tomorrow evening. But another warm day in the South, really really warm out West, as much as 20° above normal there, as much as 15 to 20° maybe not 20°, but as much as 10 to 15° below normal in the Lakes. Look at this pocket of cool air tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. You see that developing out in Texas? That's going to help to really set the stage for that organized severe weather threat out there as that cool air comes in there along a low pressure with a low pressure weak area of a wave of low pressure forming there. And there comes our cold front going to cool us back off. Very very nice week shaping up for parts of the eastern half of the nation with cooler temperatures than normal, but the West is baking with temperatures in the 90s and 100s across parts of the West. That's what we're looking as we head through the week. At least the first half of the week and most of the week will actually shape up pretty nice in the East.

[00:12:34]24-hour precipitation panel, so this is showing you precipitation that's fallen over the past 24 hours. All right? So, what we're looking at is some rain in Oklahoma.

[00:12:43]I've started this tomorrow morning, so through the day Saturday from Saturday 8:00 a.m. to Sunday 8:00 a.m., this is the amount of rain that's falling. You see a lot of rain falling along the Gulf Coast. Big clusters of showers and thunderstorms depicted and up in the Northeast as well. And as we head through tomorrow, tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours, there comes that rain in Texas along the Gulf Coast states and be a rainy day up here in parts of the Ohio Valley, Eastern Ohio Valley rather, and up into the Northeast as well. And as we get on out into Sunday evening into Monday, looking at things beginning to clear out. So, Sunday could be a little bit of a wet day along the Eastern Seaboard, especially into the Southeast on Monday, and then things will be clearing out.

[00:13:24]The next batch of precipitation will be moving through on Tuesday. So, that's how it shapes up as we head over the next couple of days. Lion's share of the rain's going to be across the Gulf Coast states from central Oklahoma, eastern Texas, an inch or two, maybe even more than that in spots where thunderstorms train, and then from the the part basically central Ohio Valley back in here into the mid-Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley and northeast could find an half an inch to an inch and big rain hole unfortunately for the Tennessee Valley and the parts of the upper southeast where we really need the rain. So, unfortunately, we're not looking at a lot there. There's your satellite picture for this morning. You can kind of see where that initial cold front is up here that's bringing the press of the Arctic air. You can see that show up really nice with this boundary of clouds, cloud cover out here into Nebraska and Wyoming, and then a lot of clouds from eastern Texas across the southeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic today and eastern Great Lakes up into the interior sections of the northeast going to see plenty of cloud cover out there today as those systems move through. And here's the radar showing those various little pockets of energy producing rain through the heartland areas in the Midwest, rain into the interior sections of the northeast up here in the northern mid-Atlantic and showers and heavier rain and thunderstorms from southern Mississippi all the way up through central Georgia just south of Atlanta, right south of Birmingham and down here south of Jackson, but we're looking at a lot of rain here just south of Houston as well along that frontal boundary. So, that's what we've got going on today and I didn't show the drought monitor yesterday, not a lot of change with it actually. I've compared the maps and for the most part, it looks about the same. Eastern seaboard down to the southeast Tennessee Valley across the south into the western plains and interior sections of the northwest looking to be where the big core of the drought is down here in Texas. Guys gotten some rain recently, so that's helped out with the drought a lot. In the southeast, we're not looking a lot of relief unfortunately over the next week or so. We're back into core sort of a drier pattern, although we will see on Monday afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms around, so that will help some. That is forecast for today, my friends. Thank you for staying with me, and I hope that you stay weather aware, particularly in Oklahoma today, and in the Ark-La-Tex back into central Texas tomorrow. So, I hope you have a wonderful Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

[00:15:38]I'll be back with another video. In the meantime, this is Jason Pritchard, Cold Rain, reminding you to stay sharp, chase hard, and tune back in tomorrow for another video. Have a great day, everybody. Take care, and God bless.