El Niño’s Threat to Indian Monsoon 2026 | IMD Predicts Rainfall Deficit | DTE News

Added: 2026-06-06

[00:00:00][music] >> Monsoon 2026 has finally reached Kerala.

[00:00:06]Three days later than normal and nine days after the IMD's forecast date.

[00:00:10]The question now is, what will happen next? As El Nino builds over the Pacific, India is facing the risk of a below normal rainfall.

[00:00:18]IMD has predicted a 60% chance of a deficit monsoon.

[00:00:22]Many climate scientists expect this El Nino to be a super El Nino event. In fact, it could be stronger than the worst El Nino on record.

[00:00:33]Back then, millions died because of intense droughts and famines around the world, including in India.

[00:00:39]This is not all. Monsoon this year faces another threat. Western disturbances.

[00:00:45]These unseasonal systems can trigger extreme weather events, such as flash [music] floods and landslides. Today, we'll look at how these different systems are likely to interact and what the upcoming monsoon could look like.

[00:00:58]We'll also talk about what could bring some relief in these conditions.

[00:01:02]But before we go further, take a look at our June 2026 magazine issue on India's tiger conservation story.

[00:01:09]For in-depth coverage, subscribe to our magazine Down to Earth and follow us on YouTube for more video stories.

[00:01:16]Coming back to monsoon 2026, the southwest monsoon began over Kerala on June 4, 2026, 3 days later than its normal date of June 1. By June 4, the monsoon had covered all of Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep while advancing into parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, according to IMD.

[00:01:34]The IMD has predicted a below normal rainfall season at 90% of the long period average.

[00:01:39]India's long period average rainfall for the June to September monsoon season is 868.6 mm, based on averages between 1971 and 2020. The weather agency has also given a 60% chance of a deficient southwest monsoon, meaning nationwide rainfall could be 89% of the long period average or less.

[00:01:59]This prediction is based on a 92% chance of El Niño conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the southwest monsoon season.

[00:02:08]In El Niño years, monsoon performance is generally suppressed. Now, there could have been some relief from a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, which can sometimes support rainfall over India and counteract El Niño's suppressing effect.

[00:02:21]But, in its latest forecast, IMD has predicted neutral IOD conditions during the monsoon season.

[00:02:28]Finally, coming to Western Disturbances.

[00:02:30]In our recent videos, we looked at how Western Disturbances led to deadly storms in UP or the unseasonal rain in May this year. Why did this happen?

[00:02:39]Western Disturbances create conditions for rainfall in India during winter and spring.

[00:02:44]But, because of a warming climate, they're increasingly remaining active during summer and monsoon months.

[00:02:50]These unseasonal Western Disturbances interact with other active convection systems, which can cause catastrophic weather disasters. This is what happened during the devastating floods in Punjab in 2025.

[00:03:03]Whether this season brings rainfall deficits, extreme weather, or unexpected surprises, one thing is clear. India's most important season is becoming harder to predict. Thank you for watching this video. If you have any suggestions, please let us know in the comments below.